What the Angels need to do to be competitive for a Wild Card.

[Hubs]

After listening to the Angelswin.com Podcast this past weekend, I know the Angels haven't done much and aren't expected to, but then they signed Stephenson, so maybe they're still in the mix for some other free agents?  Some of this is indeed Boras' mouthpiece, Heyman spouting random "rumors" but then Passan this AM echoed him.

So I wondered what the Angels need to add to be in the playoff mix, if they're gonna add. Losing Ohtani hurts the pitching staff and saps some power from the middle of the lineup, and replacing him does need to happen. But this doesn't have to be a DH.

The Angels have a few young guys that need to develop in O'Hoppe, Moniak, Neto, Schanuel and Adell. They have some younger role player veterans in Rengifo, Thaiss, and Ward. They have Drury, Rendon and Trout. So it's a good mix not great, if healthy, but if not, they are looking at unproven AAA guys or former major league guys on minor league deals like Marisnick, Calhoun, Dozier, Wallach, Mejia, Rivas, and White. Other AAA Depth includes Stefanic, Adams and Cabbage. 

With 13 hitters and likely 13 pitchers on the team, now that Ohtani is gone. They're gonna need two more hitters in addition to the guys above. They seem to have 4 OF, 5 INF, and 2 C with spots locked on the team, barring trades. So realistically, they need two more guys. They can add any sort of OF, corner or CF...with the four OF they have don't need a defensive first backup who can play CF as all of them likely are ok there. They need pop. At 1st, you have Schanuel and Drury, likely, but Drury is also your likely starter at DH or 2nd. At 2nd, you have Drury and Rengifo, and at SS it's Neto and Rengifo, and at 3rd it's Rendon and Rengifo. So they might add a guy who can play SS (as Rengifo is not a great SS) or a power guy who can play 1st as Schanuel doesn't have much power yet. 

They can add a DH type, but it's better if they add a guy who can play 1st and 3rd if needed.

They also are very very right handed, as only Schanuel, Moniak, Thaiss and Rengifo have lefty or switch hitting bats, and only one of those guys is a "Starter" right now. I expect Thaiss to play mostly catcher, and only have a few AB's here and there at 1st. 

The free agent power guys left are DH types like Soler or Martinez, who are not positionally versatile or Hoskins, who is a bit more versatile but is also Right Handed. I don't mind one of these types, but it is not preferred. If they sign Hoskins, which is a good fit for a platoon guy in Left and at first... they still are very right handed. 

And if you're really trying to compete, one of these guys isn't really gonna make the competitive difference over Evan White (R) or Rivas (L)...Problem is there is not any really solid lefty veteran power bats except Bellinger. And even Bellinger doesn't make this team a contender by himself. So maybe you add Bellinger and Hoskins, and even a veteran infielder like Anderson or Merrifield too? But if they added a three different guys, they'd have a depth problem, as none of their 11 listed above have options except the young guys (O'Hoppe, Neto, and Schanuel). 

Still, I believe two bats is the way to go, three if they are planning on moving someone out via trade (or releasing a malcontent), and then adding one front of the line starter. If they want to be competitive this year and not hugely hamper their upcoming younger core.. 

And that's a big if.

Bellinger 200/9 = 22 M per. Option after year 3 to leave. 

Snell or Montgomery = 200/8 = 24 per with club option / buyout year at 9... Slightly more than Aaron Nola got.

Hoskins or Turner = 2/25 = 12.5 per. 

And Finally Anderson = 1/7.5. Bounce Back 1 year deal.

Probably puts them just over the tax. So if they are over, then go get Moore too at 3/28.

 

 

[Hubs]

Remember this is if they intend on being competitive, I doubt Arte will spend this much. But the key is the same, adding a vet Infielder preferably one who can play the corners, adding a power lefty bat for the middle of the lineup, and possibly a second vet infielder if they plan on having Rendon on a short leash or trading a guy like Rengifo. 

[greginpsca]

Pitching will dictate how far they go. Starters will need to revert to 2022 numbers. And Relievers will have to be in the top 6-8.  Cutting down on blown saves could really turn things around. With the pen able to have 8 relievers this year, they should have 2 long relievers instead of one to be able to piggyback with  starters who throw for 4-5 innings. This would help keep the rest of the pen from being overworked. when those 1-2 inning guys are pitching consecutive days or every other day, they won't hold up.

[Erstad Grit]

Yes on all of that. I also like Moose on the bench, but I know I'm mostly alone.

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Yes on all of that. I also like Moose on the bench, but I know I'm mostly alone.

No Moose fits for a low impact low dollar contract. They could sign Bellinger, Anderson, and Moose for instance. Adding a guy like Hoskins or JD AND Bellinger is gonna be tough financially. 

The only issue with Moustakas as a platoon bat at 1st and 3rd is that he is a lefty and while they need a lefty power bat, Schanuel is also a lefty.

[BTH]

I feel like they might need to add someone who can play SS.

Neto dealt with a few injuries  and last year was his first full pro season + Rengifo isn’t great defensively at SS.

Edited January 22 by BTH

[Vlad27Trout27]

I've warmed up to the idea of Montgomery .

Snell is a risk, but if his price tag falls around 25mil its worth considering

I'd stay away from offer any big contracts to position players. just offer I big contract to either Montegomery or Snell and than save the rest of the money for next free agency.

Next I'd sign Pederson to a 1 year deal. back-up outfields, a little bit of 1st and DH 

finally finish up the Bp by adding Robertson 

With that said, we also need our roster to step-up

1. Trout needs to give us a healthy 135 games, spread between Outfield, Dh and rest.

Detmers, We really need him to take that next step. He needs to be a guy closer to 150+ innings, 3.45 to 3.65 ERA guy this year

Sandy, Needs to rebound. We saw a little bit towards the end of last year. 

Canning, needs to limit the HR ball

Anderson, just needs to eat innings and pitch in the low to mid 4s ERA

Rendon needs to care

Ward will be interesting to see how he does. I think the injury will have effects on him. 

 

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Wait about 3-5 years. 

[Angels in 2030]

Move to AAA

[Angelsjunky]

I've said it before and will say it again: The biggest thing the Angels need to add to be competitive in 2024 is...better performance health from the players that they already have. 

It doesn't matter what they add if they don't get ~250 games out of Trout and Rendon and for the majority of young players to develop positively. The farm just doesn't have the depth to compensate, and I don't see a possible configuration of free agents that would fit the bill, either. They need the talent they have to perform. Free agent signings are secondary.

[AngelsLakersFan]

[tomsred]

I like the idea of signing Moose.  It's depth and quality leadership.  I'm weary of the Bellinger and Snell discussion, and I don't like giving up any draft choices.  Instead I would rather go for Lorenzen, and maybe Clevinger or Alex Wood to bolster the pitching with depth.  Maybe Pham or Soler in the outfield, or see if you can find a younger one in a trade.  I still like Grichuk for pure depth, I know he didn't do well for us last lear but I still think he has average depth still in the tank.  I am definitely a Moore fan, he needs to be added to our relief core.

[jsnpritchett]

2 minutes ago, tomsred said:

I like the idea of signing Moose.  It's depth and quality leadership.  I'm weary of the Bellinger and Snell discussion, and I don't like giving up any draft choices.  Instead I would rather go for Lorenzen, and maybe Clevinger or Alex Wood to bolster the pitching with depth.  Maybe Pham or Soler in the outfield, or see if you can find a younger one in a trade.  I still like Grichuk for pure depth, I know he didn't do well for us last lear but I still think he has average depth still in the tank.  I am definitely a Moore fan, he needs to be added to our relief core.

You want to bring back four guys who have at some point been on back-to-back Angels teams that went 73-89.  Sounds like a great idea.  I hear Magneuris Sierra and Jack Mayfield are also available.

[OhtaniSan]

I'd prefer signing several guys not attached to draft picks over 1 of Snell/Montgomery/Bellinger.

Adding depth and spreading out the money in the likes of Merrifield, Pederson, Robertson, Moore, and Clevinger. I think all could be had on 1-3 year deals too.

Granted, that's a lot of guys to sign and the Angels are usually a "make one big splash per offseason" team. So we'll see

[Second Base]

I'm convinced Wild Card in the AL is going to require 90+ wins. So if the question is, " what needs to happen to make an Ohtani-less Angels a 90 win team?" Well, basically everything needs to go right. 

- Trout and Rendon need to have 500 at bats each, not total.

- No significant injuries to anyone in the rotation or bullpen. 

- Rotation needs to perform up to their potential. 

- The offense would need breakouts from all the youngsters, O'Hoppe, Thaiss, Neto, Schanuel, Adell, Moniak...

- The Angels would need to add serious talent, either in free agency or at the deadline that includes a legit MOTO bat and an ace. 

They do ALL of that, then I think they might win 90 games. 

 

[Ochocinco!]

I think step one would be for Perry to look at Rendons roster spot as a 0, and try to have a replacement ready for his eventual injury/release by mid season (one can dream)

Sign Bellinger, Turner, Moose, Peralta or Moore and then try to find a trade for a top end SP… doesn’t even need to be an ACE per se but needs to be a guy they can rely on to eat innings at a sub 3-3.5 era level until the ASB, where if we are in contention then sure try to find a trade for an ACE. 

[Stradling]

Health from Trout and Rendon

Rotation to return to 2022 form 

Canning pitch like he did in the 2nd half of 2023

Silseth to take the next step

Joyce and Soriano to take the next step

Bob Steve to pitch like the 2nd half of 2023

Estevez to pitch like the 1st half of 2023

Schanuel to have a .380-400 OBP

Sign Moore or Neris

Sign Soler or Hoskins

Sign Montgomery 

90 wins 

 

[angelsnationtalk]

To sum this whole thread up in one sentence.

The Angels need to have a TON of things go right to even sniff the Wild Card.

[jsnpritchett]

15 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Health from Trout and Rendon

Rotation to return to 2022 form 

Canning pitch like he did in the 2nd half of 2023

Silseth to take the next step

Joyce and Soriano to take the next step

Bob Steve to pitch like the 2nd half of 2023

Estevez to pitch like the 1st half of 2023

Schanuel to have a .380-400 OBP

Sign Moore or Neris

Sign Soler or Hoskins

Sign Montgomery 

90 wins 

 

[Stradling]

12 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

The top two and two arms and you are basically there. 

[Angelsfan1984]

They need a bulldog in then front of the rotation. I’m selling what I can afford to and getting burnes. then im signing snell. 

Finish off the bullpen with Moore. 

 

[Hubs]

14 hours ago, Second Base said:

I'm convinced Wild Card in the AL is going to require 90+ wins. So if the question is, " what needs to happen to make an Ohtani-less Angels a 90 win team?" Well, basically everything needs to go right. 

- Trout and Rendon need to have 500 at bats each, not total.

- No significant injuries to anyone in the rotation or bullpen. 

- Rotation needs to perform up to their potential. 

- The offense would need breakouts from all the youngsters, O'Hoppe, Thaiss, Neto, Schanuel, Adell, Moniak...

- The Angels would need to add serious talent, either in free agency or at the deadline that includes a legit MOTO bat and an ace. 

They do ALL of that, then I think they might win 90 games. 

 

Agreed, totally but they have minor issues that can be fixed in Free Agency (And one Major Issue) as I stated in my OP,

1) The Addition of a bat like Bellinger mitigates the need for Rendon to have 500 (productive) AB's, you have two legit MOTO hitters, one from each side if you sign Bellinger.

2) Of Course

3) Yes, but adding another starter means you dont need them all to perform, it gives you depth so you dont have to rely on the bottom of the rotation/ AAA guys too much.

4) Adding a Bench bat with pop means all of the youngsters dont need to breakout, only a few of them

5) Oh you said it all.

[Dtwncbad]

We all know the team needs to take a huge step forward in wins and losses in order to be in any kind of race.

The natural tendency is to start speculating how many more wins the team could achieve signing this player or that player, or by trading for this player.

And that leads to stuff like, “It would be dumb to sign Snell because that’s not enough to make the difference.”

But there is also a substantial change in wins possible simply from the range of performance from the players you already have.

To me it is important to look at where there are large possible changes in performance.  The two areas that have some of the greatest possible changes in performance are health (like playing 140 games instead of 50 games), and young players that level up.

I am not predicting that the 2024 Angels will be a great team next year because equally health could be the same or worse and maybe your young payers just don’t level up.

But when I look at this roster top to bottom, I overwhelmingly see a shitload of players on the projected 2024 team that fall into one of the two categories of could be healthy or could level up.

Plus a little winning can breed more winning, with increased confidence and momentum.

I would love to see the team go get one or two impact players.  They don’t have to (all by themselves) mathematically BE the difference to make the playoffs.  They very well could be the incremental difference to get there though, on top of the rest of the roster being more healthy and the young guys playing into their potential.

Edited January 23 by Dtwncbad

[floplag]

21 hours ago, The Ghost of Bob Starr said:

Wait about 3-5 years. 

weve been saying that for literally 5 years... farm got worse. 

[floplag]

Thats pretty much what it will take.
Not high on Anderson would prefer Moose for 3B as we all know well likely need one at some point.
But, yeah, Snell, Bellinger, Hoskins, Moose ... thats what its going to take to actually be in the post mix.
Is that realistic, probably not, but thats real. 
I still believe if Arte isnt willing to do that, then we should do a full rebuild.  Playing 500ish ball is making us worse, not better, its time for something drastic one way or the other.