2022-23 Free Agency Early Look

[Lou]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

But he sure has pitched in games where the starter came out early

Those aren't included in starting pitching stats. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

Sure.

And then there are those that have pitched fewer innings because of injury or perhaps they haven't been on the major league roster all season.

Not a lot of contributions to the team going on from the injured list, or AAA.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Just now, Lou said:

Those aren't included in starting pitching stats. 

And yet they do count in the wins and losses column.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Not a lot of contributions to the team going on from the injured list, or AAA.

We've had 15 different pitchers start games this year.

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

And yet they do count in the wins and losses column.

I have no idea what you're trying to prove.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Just now, Lou said:

I have no idea what you're trying to prove.

Innings pitched have value, even if they are a little below average, because they tend to replace the worst innings on your staff.

[Lou]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

Innings pitched have value, even if they are a little below average, because they tend to replace the worst innings on your staff.

I'm still not following. The discussion was about starters with over 50ip. You then brought in wins & losses for some reason. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

11 minutes ago, Lou said:

I'm still not following. The discussion was about starters with over 50ip. You then brought in wins & losses for some reason. 

Seems pretty straight forward to me. Maybe go back and re-read it.

[Lou]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

Seems pretty straight forward to me. Maybe go back and re-read it.

I don't get why you would include players like Peguero when the discussion is about starters. Same with wins & losses when they have nothing to do with the discussion. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

4 minutes ago, Lou said:

I don't get why you would include players like Peguero when the discussion is about starters. Same with wins & losses when they have nothing to do with the discussion. 

You called Robbie Ray's signing regrettable and used the 43rd out of 59 qualified starters in era stat as evidence that he was not above average.

Given the number of starting pitchers there are in MLB, being 43rd is above average (I think you mentioned the Angels have used 15). In fact I would go as far as saying that simply qualifying for an era title is enough to make a pitcher at least average or better.

I mention Peguero and a team's record because in the end the value a player brings is in how they affect the wins and losses column. Coming out of games early or not making a start means guys like Peguero come in or guys like Junk start games. This directly drives the W/L column. Ray is certainly overpaid, but Mariners are probably outside of the playoffs right now without him.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

You called Robbie Ray's signing regrettable and used the 43rd out of 59 qualified starters in era stat as evidence that he was not above average.

No, I said: 

On 8/9/2022 at 8:13 PM, Lou said:

His ERA has gone from 2.84 in 2021 to 3.96 this year. I doubt they're very happy with giving him $115 million.

At this point, they probably don't regret it (yet), but I doubt they're happy about it. 

4 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Given the number of starting pitchers there are in MLB, being 43rd is above average

Not when it's out of 59.

[AngelsLakersFan]

Just now, Lou said:

At this point, they probably don't regret it (yet), but I doubt they're happy about it. 

I don't know... being not happy about something is right there with regret. Very subtle line you are trying to draw.

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

Not when it's out of 59.

You are making an arbitrary distinction. Yes, Ray is below average among the group of above average pitchers. Similarly, Ray has 156 strikeouts this year. Among pitchers with at least 156 K's Ray is dead last, 7th out of 7.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I don't know... being not happy about something is right there with regret. Very subtle line you are trying to draw.

No, I just don't think they're at the point of regretting a 4-year deal after 4 months. Doesn't mean that they're happy about his performance thus far.

[AngelsLakersFan]

6 minutes ago, Lou said:

No, I just don't think they're at the point of regretting a 4-year deal after 4 months. Doesn't mean that they're happy about his performance thus far.

He's not that far out of line with his typical performance. I guess it comes down to expectations. The biggest difference is he stranded over 90% of his baserunners last year, and now he's back right around his career average at 78%.

[Lou]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

He's not that far out of line with his typical performance. I guess it comes down to expectations. The biggest difference is he stranded over 90% of his baserunners last year, and now he's back right around his career average at 78%.

Ok

[AngelsLakersFan]

23 minutes ago, Lou said:

Ok

Cool

[Lou]

13 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Cool

[AngelStew43]

On 8/12/2022 at 1:09 PM, Angel Oracle said:

Thing is, they can’t pay Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, and Turner, and not have much else left to pay.

This isn’t the NBA.

I am aware of this.  I am hoping that Arte will finally grow a pair, and OK a significant increase to the ML payroll.  If he doesn't, Ohtani will almost surely walk after next season.  

[Inside Pitch]

On 8/12/2022 at 9:54 PM, AngelsLakersFan said:

Among pitchers with at least 156 K's Ray is dead last, 7th out of 7.

What a schlep!

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 8/12/2022 at 7:45 PM, Lou said:

Every now and then, my 2 dogs will do something super adorable like that. And I'll kind of stop what Im doing and smile.

And before Im able to open the camera on my phone to get a pick, I'll smell the fart, and the whole moment is ruined.

I think they're allergic to beef, but I keep feeding them hamburger meat anyway, because they seem to like it.

[Warfarin]

On 8/12/2022 at 1:09 PM, Angel Oracle said:

Thing is, they can’t pay Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, and Turner, and not have much else left to pay.

This isn’t the NBA.

Agreed.

Trout, Rendon, and Ohtani (if we can re-sign him) will combine to earn around 105-110mil per year.

We can't add Turner to the mix, as that'd be around 140mil for 4 guys for a long time.  Maybe if this were the Mets or Dodgers, but we aren't, so that won't happen.

We could see some short-term, high AAV deals perhaps, like a 2-3 year deal maybe for someone in the 20mil/yr range, but I doubt we'd see a 7/250 deal or whatever it is Turner will command.

Maybe if this team were a star SS away from being WS contenders, but we aren't there yet.  We have to hope that Trout/Rendon stay healthy, that Neto and O'Hoppe can develop to be solid regulars, and that we can spread free agency money around to fill other holes (another SP, probably another OF or corner infielder, etc).

[Angel Oracle]

I’m just glad the Halos could have four guys with over 100 innings pitched for the first time since 2017.

[Warfarin]

I'm assuming we'll probably have about 40-50mil of budget space to use in free agency, which takes into consideration roughly a 190mil/yr payroll, and that Ohtani will probably get around 30mil or so in his final arbitration year.

I'm assuming we'll sign at least one SP, but we could use the rest of that money and spread it around to sign players who should help significantly improve depth and the floor of this team.

I'd like to see a corner hitting LHH OF.  Pederson has been mentioned in this thread, but Gallo might be someone to look into.  His contact rate is poor, but he draws walks, has power, and plays very good defense, so those things should at least provide decent value.  

Enriquez Hernandez has been injured this year, but prior to this year, he has been an incredibly versatile player and provided significant value.  He'd be a useful guy for us, IMO, given the amount of injuries we tend to have and the lack of depth in certain positions (3B, middle infield, etc).

[Lou]

On 8/9/2022 at 8:03 PM, ThisismineScios said:

The Mariners overpaid for Robbie Ray, but I doubt they regret it. 

 

lol 

[Lou]

On 8/9/2022 at 8:03 PM, ThisismineScios said:

The Mariners overpaid for Robbie Ray, but I doubt they regret it. 

 

lol