Imagine you're Shohei Ohtani: In what scenario would you sign long-term with the Angels?

[Angelsjunky]

You're Shohei Ohtani, and you're halfway through a second year in which you lead the majors in overall WAR, and have pretty much established yourself as the best--or at least, most unique--player in baseball. You're doing things that have never been done. You just turned 28 years old and are in your prime. But you look around at your team, facing its worst season in a long time, with no signs of the improvement that various GMs have promised over the years. 

So what would get you to sign a long-term contract with the Angels? The caveat, of course, is that we're not in his head, and the cultural differences make the divide even greater. As far as I know, we don't know if Shohei likes playing for a kind of under-the-radar team, or if he'd enjoy the spotlight of playing for a premier franchise like the Yankees, Dodgers, or Red Sox. But play make-believe, for a moment.

I'm thinking one of two scenarios:

1. Arte makes him an offer he can't refuse this offseason, something like 10/$500M. I think it would probably have to be something like that for him to sign with the Angels....it is hard to refuse a guaranteed half a billion dollars. I could also see him agreeing to something like 2/$100M, which gives him a chance to sign another big contract when he's 30.

2. You wait to see how the team does in 2023. If they're bad, you leave pretty much no matter what - unless you struggle, get hurt, and/or Arte makes the offer above. Or, if they're good and reach the postseason, you ride the wave and take the "home-team discount" - which isn't really a discount, but rather a market value contract signed with your home-team before reaching free agency. With Shohei, we don't know what that is. But assuming he continues as-is next year, probably something like 8/$400M or 10/$450M.

Do you agree with the gist of the above, or do you think he'll require more or less, or simply test free agency no matter what?

[NrM]

Considering his injury history and inconsistencies it might be better if they trade him.

 

If the Angels weren't a dumpster fire and operated with a payroll that was meant to compete then I would be on board with overpaying.

Their strategy has always been to overpay on big name vets past their prime to fill the stadium. Not to win games.

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, NrM said:

Considering his injury history and inconsistencies it might be better if they trade him.

 

If the Angels weren't a dumpster fire and operated with a payroll that was meant to compete then I would be on board with overpaying. Their strategy has always been to overpay on vets to fill the stadium, and pretend that they actually give a shit about "winning"

 

 

I'd agree with you if real baseball was fantasy baseball, because it makes a lot of logical sense. But this opens up another can of worms, and another "Imagine you're..." scenario. 

Imagine you're Mike Trout - the greatest player of the last decade, and one of the greatest players in baseball history. But wait a minute, you have a teammate who is maybe as great as you, or at least as historic (or more so). And then imagine the team trades that player, with whatever justifications attached. What is stopping you from saying, "Fuck this, I'm out. Trade me." 

I mean, if the Angels traded Ohtani for two or three players who had an immediate impact, maybe Trout would say, "OK, I get it. We robbed Peter to pay Paul, but at least we paid Paul."

But if the Angels got a bunch of prospects, none of whom had an immediate impact, Trout would likely (and understandably) be pissed. 

[NrM]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I'd agree with you if real baseball was fantasy baseball, because it makes a lot of logical sense. But this opens up another can of worms, and another "Imagine you're..." scenario. 

Imagine you're Mike Trout - the greatest player of the last decade, and one of the greatest players in baseball history. But wait a minute, you have a teammate who is maybe as great as you, or at least as historic (or more so). And then imagine the team trades that player, with whatever justifications attached. What is stopping you from saying, "Fuck this, I'm out. Trade me." 

I mean, if the Angels traded Ohtani for two or three players who had an immediate impact, maybe Trout would say, "OK, I get it. We robbed Peter to pay Paul, but at least we paid Paul."

But if the Angels got a bunch of prospects, none of whom had an immediate impact, Trout would likely (and understandably) be pissed. 

That would make me happy tbh. I want to watch this entire organization from top to bottom burn. 

[robblin17]

For Shohei’s legacies sake, he should leave this dumpster fire, trash organization. He deserves so much better and a chance to win. That clearly is not going to happen here due to the morons that run this organization. 

[eligrba]

I am guessing Ohtani is looking more for a legacy than money. There would need to be a dramatic change in outcomes for me to believe he would consider signing an extension.  I have to believe the Ohtani window is either already closed or slamming shut.

I can't imagine a franchise being operated any worse than the Angels.

[Angels 1961]

Ohtani wants to play on the big stage. The halos last 7 years side show. Ohtani will be gone, and Angels need to start a total rebuild.

[Second Base]

None. Shohei already proved by coming over early that he is not driven by money. Shohei wanted to make a path for himself, and the chance to show what he's truly capable of. And he has. 

His next goal, he wants to win. The Angels aren't winners. Therefore, the Angels aren't a fit. 

As to where he ends up, my sense is he ends up in San Francisco. 

[Angelsjunky]

 

28 minutes ago, Second Base said:

None. Shohei already proved by coming over early that he is not driven by money. Shohei wanted to make a path for himself, and the chance to show what he's truly capable of. And he has. 

His next goal, he wants to win. The Angels aren't winners. Therefore, the Angels aren't a fit. 

As to where he ends up, my sense is he ends up in San Francisco. 

So are you saying that even if the Angels make the playoffs next year, Shohei won't sign? Or that you think there is no chance they make the playoffs next year?

[totdprods]

31 minutes ago, Second Base said:

None. Shohei already proved by coming over early that he is not driven by money. Shohei wanted to make a path for himself, and the chance to show what he's truly capable of. And he has. 

His next goal, he wants to win. The Angels aren't winners. Therefore, the Angels aren't a fit. 

As to where he ends up, my sense is he ends up in San Francisco. 

Would not surprise me in the slightest if Billy and Cohen were scoping things out.

Mets have a need and uncertainty with Scherzer and deGrom’s health - but if both are healthy with Ohtani, almost game over for anyone against them in the playoffs. Mets have the money to extend. Mets have room at DH. Gives them insurance when deGrom opts out. Ohtani and Billy have lengthy history.

Smith, Davis, Guillermo or McNeil could be *one* piece back, and any one of them could be useful to the Halos for ‘23 and has some past success at least. And then after that the Mets have a number of upper-level prospects that could restock the Halos AAA/MLB teams with talent quickly. Alvarez at C, Mauricio at SS, Baty for OF, Veintos…the only big drawback is that there isn’t an obvious blue-chip MLB-ready pitching prospect. 

Hate this but between the Mets’ needs, pocket books, Eppler, and what they could offer in a trade…lots of things match up. Biggest thing working against it would actually be Arte since he and Cohen do not like each other and Arte would 100% be involved.

Edited July 17, 2022 by totdprods

[totdprods]

Honestly it’s kind of funny/ironic that the teams best suited to deal for Ohtani are all almost automatically teams we would have no interest in dealing with… Mets (Cohen), Seattle (Dipoto), Dodgers (crosstown rivals)…

[Docwaukee]

I'm Shohei.  Sell me on why I should stay.  Money?  Do you know how many teams would be willing to back up the truck?   

They went into this year with aspirations of winning.  Not just being competitive.  There's been what?  On key injury?  It's been an abject failure.  Beyond what most smart baseball people can even reconcile.   You were supposed to put the team in a position to win.  How can I even remotely trust you.  

and that's just the first thing.  Maybe you convince Shohei that it was just a bad luck season or something.  What's your plan?  What in the past 10 years is gonna make me even remotely think you have your shit together?  

To me, it's not even about getting Shohei to stay.  It's about Trout wanting to stay.  The expectations coupled with the results for this season could be the defining moment for this franchise.   If I'm Mike Trout, I'd be looking pretty hard at my future right now.  Keeping Ohtani is a pipe dream.  

[ScottT]

Everyone said the same about Trout.

Not everyone is Juan Soto.

Shohei clearly displayed that he is different.  He could've had $200 million if he waited one more year.

Who knows.

[Angel Oracle]

Playing devil’s advocate, since I’ve come out against long term contracts to outside FAs, what if Moreno told Perry to heck with the tax?   Perry then brings in someone like a Bochy with a solid coaching staff, re-signed Syndergaard to a shorter deal as a bridge to the young pitching, and then threw money at Trea Turner?

Would that be enough to re-sign Ohtani?

 

Disclaimer:  One chance of the above happening

[ThisismineScios]

5 hours ago, ScottT said:

Everyone said the same about Trout.

Not everyone is Juan Soto.

Shohei clearly displayed that he is different.  He could've had $200 million if he waited one more year.

Who knows.

This is important. Trout genuinely thought the team was headed in the right direction which wasn’t obvious at the time. I don’t say this just as a fan, but I think we underestimate how comfortable guys get. I think Shohei really likes living in Irvine, the quiet nondescript nature of OC, the Asian community, his teammates, and how the Angels have allowed him to grow. Also, he blames himself somehow for not hitting 4 home runs a game. Winning to him may not mean going to the Dodgers or Yankees (like we thought it meant to Trout). It could mean he likes the team, thinks they can be competitive, likes playing with PEOPLE like Trout and Fletcher and Stassi (easygoing nice guys). 

I truly think more than anything he wants the Angels to match his terms. He’s not the “uproot yourself and start over” kind of person naturally, so I think he wants to stay for the right number. And guess what? He’s worth it, as a pitcher that hits 25 HR alone. We can’t afford to lose him. And for the people who say trade him, we have Trout and Rendon to compete now. You don’t win a trade like that unless you get 4/5 prospects that cash in 3-4 years later. WAS will lose the Soto trade, but has no choice. FLA lost the Cabrera trade. They also lost the Stanton trade. You always lose take the talent. And we need Ohtani. I don’t care what Arte pays him. But if you trade him, you are sending a very clear message to Trout that I don’t think he will appreciate. And for this who want to trade both and rebuild, log off and go play The Show franchise mode because that sets us back 5 years and tags our franchise for decades. I don’t want to root for a team known for that. 

[Chuck]

6 hours ago, ScottT said:

Everyone said the same about Trout.

Not everyone is Juan Soto.

Shohei clearly displayed that he is different.  He could've had $200 million if he waited one more year.

Who knows.

 

1 hour ago, ThisismineScios said:

This is important. Trout genuinely thought the team was headed in the right direction which wasn’t obvious at the time. I don’t say this just as a fan, but I think we underestimate how comfortable guys get. I think Shohei really likes living in Irvine, the quiet nondescript nature of OC, the Asian community, his teammates, and how the Angels have allowed him to grow. Also, he blames himself somehow for not hitting 4 home runs a game. Winning to him may not mean going to the Dodgers or Yankees (like we thought it meant to Trout). It could mean he likes the team, thinks they can be competitive, likes playing with PEOPLE like Trout and Fletcher and Stassi (easygoing nice guys). 

I truly think more than anything he wants the Angels to match his terms. He’s not the “uproot yourself and start over” kind of person naturally, so I think he wants to stay for the right number. And guess what? He’s worth it, as a pitcher that hits 25 HR alone. We can’t afford to lose him. And for the people who say trade him, we have Trout and Rendon to compete now. You don’t win a trade like that unless you get 4/5 prospects that cash in 3-4 years later. WAS will lose the Soto trade, but has no choice. FLA lost the Cabrera trade. They also lost the Stanton trade. You always lose take the talent. And we need Ohtani. I don’t care what Arte pays him. But if you trade him, you are sending a very clear message to Trout that I don’t think he will appreciate. And for this who want to trade both and rebuild, log off and go play The Show franchise mode because that sets us back 5 years and tags our franchise for decades. I don’t want to root for a team known for that. 

[Chuck]

8 hours ago, totdprods said:

Would not surprise me in the slightest if Billy and Cohen were scoping things out.

Mets have a need and uncertainty with Scherzer and deGrom’s health - but if both are healthy with Ohtani, almost game over for anyone against them in the playoffs. Mets have the money to extend. Mets have room at DH. Gives them insurance when deGrom opts out. Ohtani and Billy have lengthy history.

Smith, Davis, Guillermo or McNeil could be *one* piece back, and any one of them could be useful to the Halos for ‘23 and has some past success at least. And then after that the Mets have a number of upper-level prospects that could restock the Halos AAA/MLB teams with talent quickly. Alvarez at C, Mauricio at SS, Baty for OF, Veintos…the only big drawback is that there isn’t an obvious blue-chip MLB-ready pitching prospect. 

Hate this but between the Mets’ needs, pocket books, Eppler, and what they could offer in a trade…lots of things match up. Biggest thing working against it would actually be Arte since he and Cohen do not like each other and Arte would 100% be involved.

While I'm against trading Ohtani the Padres, Mets and Yankees have the prospects to entice you. 

As far as the Mets, they'd have to include David Peterson, Jeff McNeil along with Alvarez, Baty and one of Mauricio or Veintos. Even then I'd feel like it wasn't enough. 

[totdprods]

27 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

While I'm against trading Ohtani the Padres, Mets and Yankees have the prospects to entice you. 

As far as the Mets, they'd have to include David Peterson, Jeff McNeil along with Alvarez, Baty and one of Mauricio or Veintos. Even then I'd feel like it wasn't enough. 

Peterson. Forgot about Peterson. Totally agree.

Yeah, I still feel like like trading Ohtani or Trout are not realistic - I can’t see Arte allowing it - but if they did, the Mets line up in so many ways.

[Chuck]

Just now, totdprods said:

Peterson. Forgot about Peterson. Totally agree.

Yeah, I still feel like like trading Ohtani or Trout are not realistic - I can’t see Arte allowing it - but if they did, the Mets line up in so many ways.

I know one thing, wherever Shohei Ohtani goes I'll be rooting for that team....unless it's the Dodgers, Mariners or Astros. 

[Second Base]

9 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

So are you saying that even if the Angels make the playoffs next year, Shohei won't sign? Or that you think there is no chance they make the playoffs next year?

Yes.

[Second Base]

The Angels won't trade Shohei. For a number of factors, primarily, anyone acquiring him, Arte wouldn't sign off on because it means he let the biggest star in the sport go to his rival because he's a failure. The second would be Perry. You don't want to be the GM that traded Ruth/Ohtani. 

Ohtani will play out his contract with the Angels, and then he will leave. 

[steveuk]

This one is easy. None. 

[Angelsjunky]

I really go back and forth on this. @Docwaukee comes in and makes me sad, but then @ScottT and @ThisismineScios come in and "fluff me up" a bit.

Maybe the key is convincing Trout. Arte and Perry need to wine and dine him, and convince him they want to actually win and will do what it takes. That also means convincing Trout that they're willing to spend over budget to strengthen the team in the near future. Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts, maybe Dansby Swanson.

The point being, if Arte and Perry can convince Trout, maybe he can convince Shohei. But that will only happen if the team is good next year, so this will be a very important offseason. A year from now we could either be flailing in another bad year and about to lose Ohtani and possibly Trout, or in the middle of contention, with Ohtani signed to an extension.

But as I said in the OP, maybe the best route to keeping Ohtani is allowing a player opt out after three years. If I were Shohei, I'd insist on that. But now isn't the time for that. That's like trying to get your wife to have sex with you when she's in a bad mood. Wait until the offseason, and after you've improved the team in a clear and noticeable way.

But I agree: Arte will never trade Ohtani, except maybe next July if the Angels are 10+ games below .500. Ohtani is a huge money-maker for Arte - he's the Angels biggest draw, and probably the biggest draw in all of baseball.

 

Edited July 17, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

My nightmare scenario: The Angels "Improve" the team in dumb way this offseason, over-spending on guys who are old and/or under-perform next year. Ohtani and Trout both say they've had enough and leave. We're left with an Ohtani-less and Trout-less team filled with over-prices guys in their 30s. Hey, like the early 90s!

I guess, at least, we'd enter a true re-building mode for a few years, with the hopes of being good again in 2026 or 2027.

[Jason]

11 hours ago, eligrba said:

I am guessing Ohtani is looking more for a legacy than money. There would need to be a dramatic change in outcomes for me to believe he would consider signing an extension.  I have to believe the Ohtani window is either already closed or slamming shut.

I can't imagine a franchise being operated any worse than the Angels.

I agree with this. He isn’t going to win with the Angels so I don’t think there’s going to be a lot of motivation for him to re-sign.