Theoretically speaking what are the Angels odds for reaching the post season?

[angelsfan100]

I think it's way too early for this but since the Halos have gone down the toilet over the last 30 days it's a discussion worth having. I don't think there is anyway this team can make up ground in the division. The Astros as usual are the best team in the ALW and nobody is going to catch them. However we are only 5 games back in the wild card. All it takes is getting hot at the right time. But I don't beleive this years team has the capacity to achieve this. At this rate they are on pace to win 4 games a month. 

I just want to make a few things clear. I do understand the season is a marathon and not a sprint. But this team is outright bad, like Orioles bad. Probably even worse. 

[tdawg87]

[Blarg]

If the top of the lineup can pull their collective game together, find a replacement for the lost value in Rendon, see a little more development out of Marsh, I think they have a chance. They can afford one Squid level offensive player but not an offense with three Squids like Duffy, Mayfield and Lagares all in the same lineup. Bounce the under .200 squad and hold your breath for Fletcher to return so Velazquez can return to bench duty. 

[Angels 1961]

I have a better chance of Grich taking me off his ignore list.

[Jason]

What year are we referencing here?

[Jason]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

If the top of the lineup can pull their collective game together, find a replacement for the lost value in Rendon, see a little more development out of Marsh, I think they have a chance. They can afford one Squid level offensive player but not an offense with three Squids like Duffy, Mayfield and Lagares all in the same lineup. Bounce the under .200 squad and hold your breath for Fletcher to return so Velazquez can return to bench duty. 

That’s a lot that needs to go right and you didn’t even mention the bullpen, lol. 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Jason

[REDneck]

 

 

 

 

50 minutes ago, Blarg said:

If the top of the lineup can pull their collective game together, find a replacement for the lost value in Rendon, see a little more development out of Marsh, I think they have a chance. They can afford one Squid level offensive player but not an offense with three Squids like Duffy, Mayfield and Lagares all in the same lineup. Bounce the under .200 squad and hold your breath for Fletcher to return so Velazquez can return to bench duty. 

Velazquez is not the problem a functional team should be able to absorb him with what he contributes defensively.

I will save my abated breath for Fletchers actual return, and then hold it for him to actually produce.

I think I will need to be resuscitated

[Blarg]

If you read it, they can put one Squid on the roster, not 4 without the defensive upside. 

[T.G.]

[Angelsjunky]

First off, Fangraphs gives them a 19.5% chance of making the playoffs, 1.7% of winning the division. That sounds about right.

It comes down the wildcard, of course. There are three spots and six teams ahead of the Angels: the Blue Jays (+3.5), Rays (+1.5), Red Sox (0), Indians (-0.5), White Sox (-3.0), and Rangers (-4.5).

Catching the Rangers and White Sox is one thing, the Indians and Red Sox quite another.

Here's a chart:

[failos]

10% chance, but that’s being generous.

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

First off, Fangraphs gives them a 19.5% chance of making the playoffs, 1.7% of winning the division. That sounds about right.

It comes down the wildcard, of course. There are three spots and six teams ahead of the Angels: the Blue Jays (+3.5), Rays (+1.5), Red Sox (0), Indians (-0.5), White Sox (-3.0), and Rangers (-4.5).

Catching the Rangers and White Sox is one thing, the Indians and Red Sox quite another.

Here's a chart:

 

Lol at surpassing 6 teams 

[eligrba]

[Angelsjunky]

10 minutes ago, Jason said:

Lol at surpassing 6 teams 

Well, right. But they could get hot - in theory. On June 1, the Braves were 23-27; they haven't lost yet in June and are now 37-27.

If you're on the Angels, you have to hope you can do something like that. On the other hand, it is very unlikely.

But we may be in the same position we are almost every year: not good or bad enough at the trade deadline to either be big buyers or big sellers. The schedule until the ASB is pretty light, especially the next 12 games against the Mariners and Royals. They really need to go at least 8-4, if not 9-3 or better. 9-3 would get them back to .500.

After that the schedule is more balanced: 6 games vs. bad teams (Marlins, Orioles), 3 vs. an OK team (White Sox), and 8 vs. good teams (Astros, Dodgers).

 

 

[tdawg87]

This series against the M's will tell us everything we need to know.

[HanfordGuy]

18 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

This series against the M's will tell us everything we need to know.

I’m eager to learn what happened to my class ring.

[gurn67]

There are some Angels who have an excellent chance of reaching the post-season depending on where they're moved to at the trade deadline.

[Slegnaac]

The biggest hurdle has to be not controlling their own destiny.  Teams ahead of them need to regress plus they have to do much better.

 

[angelsfan100]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

First off, Fangraphs gives them a 19.5% chance of making the playoffs, 1.7% of winning the division. That sounds about right.

It comes down the wildcard, of course. There are three spots and six teams ahead of the Angels: the Blue Jays (+3.5), Rays (+1.5), Red Sox (0), Indians (-0.5), White Sox (-3.0), and Rangers (-4.5).

Catching the Rangers and White Sox is one thing, the Indians and Red Sox quite another.

Here's a chart:

 

This seems very generous 

[arch stanton]

Fuck Fangraphs. 100% chance of making the plyoffs

[Docwaukee]

[IheartLA]

Before the last game Duffy was hitting .300 with a .352 OBP. He has no power but he’s hardly been terrible like some here make him seem. The big issue with this team is the bullpen, if that ever gets back on track we will start winning games.

[Stradling]

To me it’s the offense. I heard on the radio that our team batting average went from a league leading .266 about a month ago to .239. That’s very difficult to do. 

[cysomeawfulpitcher]

[Chuck]

15 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

This series against the M's will tell us everything we need to know.

Off to a good start in this series but 4 games left. Weird saying that.