Fearless Predictions: 2022 Edition

[Angelsjunky]

Basic rules: Make five predictions that aren't obvious or diverge from conventional wisdom. They don't have to be truly wild (e.g. Magneuris Sierra breaks Rickey Henderson's SB record), but just something that diverges from what the general consensus seems to be.

1. Jared Walsh will take another step forward. Walsh's 2021 was two peaks with a long valley between them. For the first two months, or through May 26 and 47 games played, he hit .321/.385/.583, and then for the last month plus, or from August 28 on, his last 31 games, he hit .342/.400/.595 - almost exactly the same over 78 games total. But the in-between two months (May 27-August 27) he hit a Mayfieldian .219/.282/.422 in 66 games.The half-empty version is that he's just streaky, and his true talent level is his overall line, which is still pretty good if not great (.277/.340/.509, 127 wRC+, 2.8 WAR). Or to put that another way, for a bit more than half the season he was Nolan Arenado, for a bit less than half he was Jack Mayfield.

I don't think he's either, but I'm going with "Arenado Minus" (with the bat, that is). Meaning, he's closer to the half-full than the half-empty version, but he's still going to be streaky - just not as much as last year. I'm going with .280/.350/.530 with 35 HR.

2. Luis Rengifo will break out. But maybe not with the Angels, and definitely not until the second half. My worry is that they trade him for pitching help to some crappy team, they commit to giving him a shot, and he becomes Damion Easley - the good Detroit version. It is a weird thing, because Rengifo never seems to show more than flashes, but I'm not the only one that has "that feeling" for him. But I think at some point this year--again, probably in the second half and maybe not with the Angels--he starts putting it together. Maybe something like .250/.330/.420 this year, and upwards from there.

3. Max Stassi will be top 5 in WAR among catchers. OK, he was 8th last year, but who would have thought? After the Big Three (Smith, Realmuto, Grandal), Stassi is right there with the second tier. He's going to be health, or healthier, and hit 20 HR and maybe even win a Gold Glove.

4. Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon will combine for 22+ WAR. If you add up their last full years, you get 8.4 for Trout (2019), 8.1 for Ohtani (2021), and 7.0 for Rendon (2019) - that's 23.5, which would be the best team trio since the 2011 Red Sox (Ellsbury, Pedroia, A Gonzalez). Maybe it is too much to ask that they are all healthy and all in peak form, which is why I'm saying 22+. But they're going to be the best trio in the majors this year, and in Angels history (surpassing the 2000 trio of Erstad, Glaus, and Salmon with 21.4 WAR). 

5. The Angels are going to make the playoffs (or at least win 90 games). I know, the AJ jinx...but really, I assure you, I don't have that much power. This is a good team with high-end talent and depth. It is going to be a fun season.

[T.G.]

Son of a b…

[BTH]

1. Jose Rojas has an above-average offensive season, prompting the Angels to squeeze his bat into the lineup at 2B and/or the OF.

2. Tyler Wade outperforms David Fletcher offensively and in WAR.

3. Jimmy Herget finishes the season with a top 5 performance among Angels relievers.

4. Reid Detmers outperforms Sandoval and Suarez.

5.  The Angels trade for a back-end SP out of necessity in May (a la the Jhoulys Chacin trade in 2016).

[Angelsjunky]

9 minutes ago, Trendon said:

2. Tyler Wade outperforms David Fletcher offensively and in WAR.

I almost included that one as my 5th, but wanted to jinx the season.

[T.G.]

Just now, Angelsjunky said:

I almost included that one as my 5th, but wanted to jinx the season.

You’re a closet A’s fan, aren’t you?

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, True Grich said:

You’re a closet A’s fan, aren’t you?

Hey, that one was for you, Grich.

But no, I'm stuck in eternal purgatory like the rest of you. 

[Dtwncbad]

Tyler Wade and Taylor Ward get married and take each other’s last name creating Tyler Ward and Taylor Wade.

[Taylor]

"Fearless" will be this year's "magical."

[failos]

[Hubs]

1. Angels have 10 or more players with 20 or more HR. Considering that in 2021, the team only had 190 HR total, with Ohtani having 46 of them, this is a fearless and bold projection.

Trout, Rendon, Ohtani, Walsh are the easy ones. Upton if healthy is five. Adell is six. Stassi, Ward are longer shots but have the power. Marsh maybe? An Infielder? Rojas? 8 would be a decent projection, but 10? 

2. Angels lead the league in Saves, and lowest BP ERA.

3. Trout, Ohtani, Rendon, exceed 25 WAR.

4. Angels win 97 games and the division.

5. Astros caught cheating again. 

[Torridd]

1. Detmers will join the staff by June and never look back.

2. Suarez will quietly win at least 10 games.

3. Thor will go on the IL but return the same year and win at least 7 more games.

4. Ohtani won't hit as many homers this year but will win more games.

5. Upton will hit no more than 10 homers for the Angels.

[bloodbrother]

Probably the boldest prediction of all

1. Angels will have a WINNING record against the AL West

[Second Base]

Bold Predictions....

1. Noah Syndergaard: 140 innings 4.35 ERA - I don't think his arsenal will ever be what it was. He used to get by with triple digits and absolute filth of his slider. Before injury, he could still sit 95-97 and find success. But I think he's mostly going to be 94-95, and while he'll still locate his offspeed pitches well, they won't have the same bite. It won't be a Matt Harvey meltdown, but it'll be an overpay for a merely serviceable starter. 

2. Mike Trout wins his last MVP title - He was incredible when he played last year. So many experts have predicted he'll begin to decline, but Trout is truly special. He's not getting worse as much as he's developing into a different player. I don't think he'll be a good defensive CF anymore, I think he'll still be relatively fast and a good base runner, but speed isn't a threat anymore. As he ages into his 30's, I think he'll become more of a force at the plate, less in the field or on the bases. Similar to Miguel Cabrera in his early 30's. The reason this will be his last is simple though. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is about to begin his decade long assault on MLB pitching that will exceed even his dad's numbers. 

3. Rendon isn't the superstar you thought - He'll be injury prone and decent, not great moving forward. 110 games, .260/.330, 18 HR and above average defense. 

4. Justin Upton will be released in June - 2019, 2020 and 2021 all had varying excuses as to why Upton wasn't performing and maybe in small sample sizes, that works. But the problem is, it's not a small sample size. It's 194 games, and a line of .210/.298 and 38 HR's. If extrapolated across a standard 150 games, that's still 30 HR's, which is fine, except that Upton provides negative values in the field and on the bases, the DH spot is filled and he's got two young bucks that are ready to take over his job. I thinking he'll land somewhere, maybe San Diego, Arizona or LA, but he won't finish the season in an Angel uniform. 

5. Marsh and Adell both have breakout seasons - Adell takes over in LF, plays decent defense, miles ahead of where he was before, and produces a line of: .270/.330, 30 HR's and 15 SB in 130 games. Marsh transitions to RF (just for this year and part of next) and is a good defender out there and produces a line of .290/.360 15 HR and 20 SB in 130 games. 

 

[Stax]

Justin Upton, Mike Trout and Taylor Ward will be the starting outfield with Tyler Wade the fourth outfielder

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

Bold Predictions....

1. Noah Syndergaard: 140 innings 4.35 ERA - I don't think his arsenal will ever be what it was. He used to get by with triple digits and absolute filth of his slider. Before injury, he could still sit 95-97 and find success. But I think he's mostly going to be 94-95, and while he'll still locate his offspeed pitches well, they won't have the same bite. It won't be a Matt Harvey meltdown, but it'll be an overpay for a merely serviceable starter. 

2. Mike Trout wins his last MVP title - He was incredible when he played last year. So many experts have predicted he'll begin to decline, but Trout is truly special. He's not getting worse as much as he's developing into a different player. I don't think he'll be a good defensive CF anymore, I think he'll still be relatively fast and a good base runner, but speed isn't a threat anymore. As he ages into his 30's, I think he'll become more of a force at the plate, less in the field or on the bases. Similar to Miguel Cabrera in his early 30's. The reason this will be his last is simple though. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is about to begin his decade long assault on MLB pitching that will exceed even his dad's numbers. 

3. Rendon isn't the superstar you thought - He'll be injury prone and decent, not great moving forward. 110 games, .260/.330, 18 HR and above average defense. 

4. Justin Upton will be released in June - 2019, 2020 and 2021 all had varying excuses as to why Upton wasn't performing and maybe in small sample sizes, that works. But the problem is, it's not a small sample size. It's 194 games, and a line of .210/.298 and 38 HR's. If extrapolated across a standard 150 games, that's still 30 HR's, which is fine, except that Upton provides negative values in the field and on the bases, the DH spot is filled and he's got two young bucks that are ready to take over his job. I thinking he'll land somewhere, maybe San Diego, Arizona or LA, but he won't finish the season in an Angel uniform. 

5. Marsh and Adell both have breakout seasons - Adell takes over in LF, plays decent defense, miles ahead of where he was before, and produces a line of: .270/.330, 30 HR's and 15 SB in 130 games. Marsh transitions to RF (just for this year and part of next) and is a good defender out there and produces a line of .290/.360 15 HR and 20 SB in 130 games. 

 

Those predictions are bold, but are they fearless?

[jsnpritchett]

14 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Those predictions are bold, but are they fearless?

[Second Base]

22 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Those predictions are bold, but are they fearless?

Oh, I thought he said feckless. 

[Hubs]

2 hours ago, Second Base said:

Bold Predictions....

1. Noah Syndergaard: 140 innings 4.35 ERA - I don't think his arsenal will ever be what it was. He used to get by with triple digits and absolute filth of his slider. Before injury, he could still sit 95-97 and find success. But I think he's mostly going to be 94-95, and while he'll still locate his offspeed pitches well, they won't have the same bite. It won't be a Matt Harvey meltdown, but it'll be an overpay for a merely serviceable starter. 

2. Mike Trout wins his last MVP title - He was incredible when he played last year. So many experts have predicted he'll begin to decline, but Trout is truly special. He's not getting worse as much as he's developing into a different player. I don't think he'll be a good defensive CF anymore, I think he'll still be relatively fast and a good base runner, but speed isn't a threat anymore. As he ages into his 30's, I think he'll become more of a force at the plate, less in the field or on the bases. Similar to Miguel Cabrera in his early 30's. The reason this will be his last is simple though. Vlad Guerrero Jr. is about to begin his decade long assault on MLB pitching that will exceed even his dad's numbers. 

3. Rendon isn't the superstar you thought - He'll be injury prone and decent, not great moving forward. 110 games, .260/.330, 18 HR and above average defense. 

4. Justin Upton will be released in June - 2019, 2020 and 2021 all had varying excuses as to why Upton wasn't performing and maybe in small sample sizes, that works. But the problem is, it's not a small sample size. It's 194 games, and a line of .210/.298 and 38 HR's. If extrapolated across a standard 150 games, that's still 30 HR's, which is fine, except that Upton provides negative values in the field and on the bases, the DH spot is filled and he's got two young bucks that are ready to take over his job. I thinking he'll land somewhere, maybe San Diego, Arizona or LA, but he won't finish the season in an Angel uniform. 

5. Marsh and Adell both have breakout seasons - Adell takes over in LF, plays decent defense, miles ahead of where he was before, and produces a line of: .270/.330, 30 HR's and 15 SB in 130 games. Marsh transitions to RF (just for this year and part of next) and is a good defender out there and produces a line of .290/.360 15 HR and 20 SB in 130 games. 

 

While I like Vlad Jr. I am bummed they didn't sign him at 16, but...I don't think he ever approached a 7-8 WAR season because of his defense. He won't win many MVP's based solely on hitting. Maybe one.

[Angelsjunky]

Fun fact: Vlad Jr's 2021 season (6.7 WAR, 166 wRC+) is tied with Vlad's second best season by WAR, and better than any of his seasons by wRC+.

And of course it would be the worst full season of Trout's career, and is already lesser than his 114-game 2017 season.

Anyhow, it will be interesting to see Vlad and Soto vie for the best hitter of the 2020s, in a similar way that Acuna and Tatis vie for best overall player. Franco being the wildcard in both "contests."

[HaloBronco]

Rendon will be hurt and continue to disappoint Halo fans. 

[Hubs]

12 hours ago, HaloBronco said:

Rendon will be hurt and continue to disappoint Halo fans. 

I've never seen someone so disparaged after one injured season. I know it looks like he missed a lot of games twice in a row, but in 2020, he played almost 90% of games and was on pace for a 6 WAR season. 

Hopefully he comes back and puts up 5-7 WAR!

[Angels 1961]

Former Angel pitcher of the year signs back with halos. Yosmeiro Petit has big role in playoffs and World Series.                                                                                                                 Hubs admits I was right about Jose Rojas making halo roster.                                                                                                                                                                                                      Grich takes me off ignore                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         After halos get off to bad start Maddon is fired and Mike Scioscia returns as manager.                                                                                                                                                    After all star game I get new pillow for my couch and get ready for playoff push.                                                                                                                                                                    One of my predictions do not come true and I leave AW forever. Few are happy but most ask that I come back

[HaloBronco]

2 hours ago, Hubs said:

I've never seen someone so disparaged after one injured season. I know it looks like he missed a lot of games twice in a row, but in 2020, he played almost 90% of games and was on pace for a 6 WAR season. 

Hopefully he comes back and puts up 5-7 WAR!

I hope he does bounce back, we need him. 
 

My hope is your right and my prediction turns out wrong.

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

Former Angel pitcher of the year signs back with halos. Yosmeiro Petit has big role in playoffs and World Series.                                                                                                                 Hubs admits I was right about Jose Rojas making halo roster.                                                                                                                                                                                                      Grich takes me off ignore                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         After halos get off to bad start Maddon is fired and Mike Scioscia returns as manager.                                                                                                                                                    After all star game I get new pillow for my couch and get ready for playoff push.                                                                                                                                                                    One of my predictions do not come true and I leave AW forever. Few are happy but most ask that I come back

this is the strangest looking haiku i've ever seen.

[Revad]

14 minutes ago, Tank said:

this is the strangest looking haiku i've ever seen.

Talent