MLBTR early predictions...

[floplag]

For your viewing pleasure..

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html

We got votes for Semian (6/138), Stroman (5-110), Rodon (1/25), Gray (4/56), Matz (3/27), Neris (2/18), Tepera 2/12), Duffy 1/10), and a bunch of "will also be in play" on a number of others. 

[angelsnationtalk]

I'm interested to see how they handle this. Signing a FA shortstop likely means losing your 2nd round pick since all the top ones have a QO attached to them. I'm assuming we will re-sign Iglesias weather it's him accepting the QO of getting an extension with us. 

Although, if the Angels lose Iglesias to another team then they should have no worry getting a shortstop like Semien, Story or whoever else because they basically get that pick back from losing Iglesias. 

Obviously get pitching first, but just another thought. Angels do have options and if Arte is willing to spend, it could all work out pretty good. 

[Mark68]

If they actually end up re-signing Iglesias, Tepera would make a nice setup guy for him. Kendall Graveman as well. Rodon for one year at $25 MM might be a steal. It might also be lighting 25 million one dollar bills on fire. It's not my money, so....

If they do get Rodon, Gray, Duffy, Semian, and two of Tepera/Neris/Graveman, call it an offseason. 

[Hubs]

Semein at 6/138 is a similar contract to what they gave Upton. That would be great use of money. And for those who say he's too old or whatnot, that contract would not hamper the future pursuit of pitching, especially if it was somewhat backloaded as these often are. 

And it solidifies a position of need for the future. Imagine having the same infield and outfield for the next 5 seasons. 

[DMVol]

I like MLBTR but if you look at their predictions at the end of the offseason, they are rarely right on anybody.....at least they have 3 predictions this year rather than one.....hedge their bets I guess.....

[WicketMaiden]

Rodon looks like the perfect Angels pitcher of recent off-seasons: could be great, could be injured. Will probably end up being both as he hits the 60 day in May after a blistering start. (Honestly, I'm willing to accept that the last few seasons might be clouding my judgement.)

Glad to see we weren't linked with Heaney at 1/6m. Please no.

Would we go as far as six years for Semien with Paris and Vera knocking on the door in a year or two? I like Semien, he's my favourite pick of this SS class, but I'd only really want him for three, maybe four years tops. 

All in all, I'm glad I'm not the one calling the shots and depending on getting these decisions right for my living.

[beatlesrule]

https://sports.yahoo.com/predicting-where-top-25-mlb-150754024.html?src=rss

They also don't have the Angels keeping Raisel.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-predictions-offseason-2021-22

They predict Angels sign Robbie Ray but no mention of Raisel for any teams.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/11/08/mlb-free-agent-rankings-predictions-correa-seager-scherzer

No Raisel for Angels.

[Hubs]

5 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

Rodon looks like the perfect Angels pitcher of recent off-seasons: could be great, could be injured. Will probably end up being both as he hits the 60 day in May after a blistering start. (Honestly, I'm willing to accept that the last few seasons might be clouding my judgement.)

Glad to see we weren't linked with Heaney at 1/6m. Please no.

Would we go as far as six years for Semien with Paris and Vera knocking on the door in a year or two? I like Semien, he's my favourite pick of this SS class, but I'd only really want him for three, maybe four years tops. 

All in all, I'm glad I'm not the one calling the shots and depending on getting these decisions right for my living.

Kyren Paris hit .231 for 13 games in High A in 2021. He will likely start the season there again. Then he'll play 2023 in AA, and maybe 2024 in AAA before being ready for some part time duty that year. 

Best case scenario is he is available to be a regular SS in 2025. That's Four seasons away. Fletcher played this level in 2015, didn't debut until 2018 and wasn't a regular until 2019. He also was a bit older at these levels.

Jackson and Vera are a year behind Paris.

They should not factor in to major league planning discussions for 2022.

Davis will be a regular MINF in AAA next year, we might see him for a bit, along with Stefanic. But these other guys are years away.

 

[DMVol]

1 minute ago, beatlesrule said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/predicting-where-top-25-mlb-150754024.html?src=rss

They also don't have the Angels keeping Raisel.

That is a head scratcher....I think most everybody thinks that is likely....none of their 3 guys predict the Angels....

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

For your viewing pleasure..

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/top-50-mlb-free-agent-rankings.html

We got votes for Semian (6/138), Stroman (5-110), Rodon (1/25), Gray (4/56), Matz (3/27), Neris (2/18), Tepera 2/12), Duffy 1/10), and a bunch of "will also be in play" on a number of others. 

Stroman seems like a great fit. Gray too especially not tied to a QO. Duffy will have a great year at a bargain IMO. 

[floplag]

16 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Stroman seems like a great fit. Gray too especially not tied to a QO. Duffy will have a great year at a bargain IMO. 

ive had my eye on Stroman for a long time, largely due to ground ball rates.  Down a bit last year but still.
IF we go get one of the better SS, Semien for example, we will have an entire infield of gold glove caliber players, huge for young pitchers and ground ball creators.
For me that a big criteria for whoever we go after as pitchers.  

[Erstad Grit]

Even with injuries....Kershaw at 1/20 is a better risk/reward than Noah, Verlander, or Greinke IMO 

[Revad]

1 hour ago, beatlesrule said:

https://sports.yahoo.com/predicting-where-top-25-mlb-150754024.html?src=rss

They also don't have the Angels keeping Raisel.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-predictions-offseason-2021-22

They predict Angels sign Robbie Ray but no mention of Raisel for any teams.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/11/08/mlb-free-agent-rankings-predictions-correa-seager-scherzer

No Raisel for Angels.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
 

Ranking and dollar predictions

[WicketMaiden]

5 hours ago, Hubs said:

Kyren Paris hit .231 for 13 games in High A in 2021. He will likely start the season there again. Then he'll play 2023 in AA, and maybe 2024 in AAA before being ready for some part time duty that year. 

Best case scenario is he is available to be a regular SS in 2025. That's Four seasons away. Fletcher played this level in 2015, didn't debut until 2018 and wasn't a regular until 2019. He also was a bit older at these levels.

Jackson and Vera are a year behind Paris.

They should not factor in to major league planning discussions for 2022.

Davis will be a regular MINF in AAA next year, we might see him for a bit, along with Stefanic. But these other guys are years away.

 

2025 is three seasons away - 2022; 2023; 2024, those are the three years I really want Semien for, maybe 2025 if the kids haven't quite broken through fully by then. A six year pact keeps him around on £20m plus for 2025, 2026, and 2027, when he really shouldn't be needed. A decision on any long term contract has to consider the later years and to me it seems around a third to a half of a six year deal would be superfluous. 

[Revad]

12 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

2025 is three seasons away - 2022; 2023; 2024, those are the three years I really want Semien for, maybe 2025 if the kids haven't quite broken through fully by then. A six year pact keeps him around on £20m plus for 2025, 2026, and 2027, when he really shouldn't be needed. A decision on any long term contract has to consider the later years and to me it seems around a third to a half of a six year deal would be superfluous. 

Might get him for five years and move him to second when Paris or others are ready.  Five years $125M or six $138?  Fletch can super sub once Semien moves to second.

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, Revad said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/
 

Ranking and dollar predictions

Some of those seem a bit low, but I'd happily take any of the following (using Ben Clemens' predictions):

Stroman 4/$100M

Gausman 3/$54M

Taylor 4/$60M

Rodon 3/$45M

Raisel 3/$45M

Jansen 2/$30M

DeScaflani and Cobb, both 2/$20M

The Gausman prediction seems particularly low. 

Anyhow, I'd happily take Gausman, Taylor, Raisel or Jansen, and one of DeScaflani or Cobb for $58M. Or swap out DeCobb for Rodon, and make it $63M. Then sign a cheap backup catcher and make a couple trades for relief help and call it an offseason.

[eligrba]

Already wrong about Heaney.

[Tank]

10 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

Even with injuries....Kershaw at 1/20 is a better risk/reward than Noah, Verlander, or Greinke IMO 

plus, we'll save him the stress of worrying about pitching in october.

[Docwaukee]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Some of those seem a bit low, but I'd happily take any of the following (using Ben Clemens' predictions):

Stroman 4/$100M

Gausman 3/$54M

Taylor 4/$60M

Rodon 3/$45M

Raisel 3/$45M

Jansen 2/$30M

DeScaflani and Cobb, both 2/$20M

The Gausman prediction seems particularly low. 

Anyhow, I'd happily take Gausman, Taylor, Raisel or Jansen, and one of DeScaflani or Cobb for $58M. Or swap out DeCobb for Rodon, and make it $63M. Then sign a cheap backup catcher and make a couple trades for relief help and call it an offseason.

not a bit low but wildly so in my opinion.  usually find fangraphs pretty spot on with this type of stuff but outside of his top 6 I think he's gonna be way off.  

[totdprods]

20 hours ago, floplag said:

We got votes for Semian (6/138), Stroman (5-110), Rodon (1/25), Gray (4/56), Matz (3/27), Neris (2/18), Tepera 2/12), Duffy 1/10), and a bunch of "will also be in play" on a number of others. 

Woof. Hopefully not on Semien or Rodon at that rate. That's a lot of money for Neris and years for Matz too, but wouldn't hate those.

[Hubs]

17 hours ago, WicketMaiden said:

2025 is three seasons away - 2022; 2023; 2024, those are the three years I really want Semien for, maybe 2025 if the kids haven't quite broken through fully by then. A six year pact keeps him around on £20m plus for 2025, 2026, and 2027, when he really shouldn't be needed. A decision on any long term contract has to consider the later years and to me it seems around a third to a half of a six year deal would be superfluous. 

Ok, let me make this clear again, cuz I must not have. Paris has limited experience at High A ball. The other kids are at Low A.

Paris will spend the vast majority of his 2022 season at A ball, 2023 at AA ball, 2024 at AAA. He may make a cameo in 2024. He probably will be up and down in AAA in 2025. That's four seasons. He would likely not be ready and settled until 2026, which is the final year of Rendon's contract.

Rare is the guy that blows through levels and immediately contributes. Rengifo and Davis both pushed through three levels in one year, but that is not the norm. Even then, Rengifo has not made an impact at the major league level.

Semien would solidify the position for the rest of Anthony Rendon's contract and more than half of Trout's. 

You do not plan on major league contracts based on IF a Low or High A player develops four years away.

 

 

[WicketMaiden]

43 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Ok, let me make this clear again, cuz I must not have. Paris has limited experience at High A ball. The other kids are at Low A.

Paris will spend the vast majority of his 2022 season at A ball, 2023 at AA ball, 2024 at AAA. He may make a cameo in 2024. He probably will be up and down in AAA in 2025. That's four seasons. He would likely not be ready and settled until 2026, which is the final year of Rendon's contract.

Rare is the guy that blows through levels and immediately contributes. Rengifo and Davis both pushed through three levels in one year, but that is not the norm. Even then, Rengifo has not made an impact at the major league level.

Semien would solidify the position for the rest of Anthony Rendon's contract and more than half of Trout's. 

You do not plan on major league contracts based on IF a Low or High A player develops four years away.

 

 

I understood you the first time, I simply don't agree. I think you're being too pessimistic about the future rate of development of the multiple short-stops we have (6 of them are on the Angels' top 15 Prospects list), and whoever puts together the MLB prospects lists seem to agree: 

No 4 prospect Paris has an ETA of 2023

No 5 prospect Jackson in 2023

No 6 prospect Vera in 2024

No 9 prospect Guzman in 2025

No 12 prospect Soto in 2022

No 15 prospect Placencia in 2024

The proposed Semien 6 year deal would tie up SS until 2028, (unless you want an ageing $20m+ player playing 2B or sitting on the bench).

Sure these are times they'll first see MLB pitching, so they'll need a while to develop some more after that, but if Paris, Jackson and Soto have all had a cup of coffee by the end of 2023 then one of them is highly likely to be ready for an everyday role sometime during 2025, maybe earlier if the defensive skills are there and Semien at 34/35 is declining by then. The only way we still need Semien in his final two and a half years is if all of our SS prospects fail or are traded away. 

And I don't agree that a Major League club wouldn't factor into it's medium term multi-million dollar investment analysis the extremely cheap and deep crop of alternatives waiting in the wings and due up during the mid-point of the proposed investment period. 

[Hubs]

3 minutes ago, WicketMaiden said:

I understood you the first time, I simply don't agree. I think you're being too pessimistic about the future rate of development of the multiple short-stops we have (6 of them are on the Angels' top 15 Prospects list), and whoever puts together the MLB prospects lists seem to agree: 

No 4 prospect Paris has an ETA of 2023

No 5 prospect Jackson in 2023

No 6 prospect Vera in 2024

No 9 prospect Guzman in 2025

No 12 prospect Soto in 2022

No 15 prospect Placencia in 2024

The proposed Semien 6 year deal would tie up SS until 2028, (unless you want an ageing $20m+ player playing 2B or sitting on the bench).

Sure these are times they'll first see MLB pitching, so they'll need a while to develop some more after that, but if Paris, Jackson and Soto have all had a cup of coffee by the end of 2023 then one of them is highly likely to be ready for an everyday role sometime during 2025, maybe earlier if the defensive skills are there and Semien at 34/35 is declining by then. The only way we still need Semien in his final two and a half years is if all of our SS prospects fail or are traded away. 

And I don't agree that a Major League club wouldn't factor into it's medium term multi-million dollar investment analysis the extremely cheap and deep crop of alternatives waiting in the wings and due up during the mid-point of the proposed investment period. 

6 seasons would be 2022-2027. Just so we're clear.

Fletcher is also under contract for only until 2025 too, with two options after that at ages 32-33, for 8 and 8.5 M. Seeing as if he doesn't rebound we'll be looking for platoon depth in 2022 offseason, I think that they need to add major league talent to the infield. Maybe it's not Semien or someone on a long term deal, but they need major league talent if they are going to field a contender.

Also, I am way more pessimistic on minor league prospects. Is that the MLB.com list? They are far too optimistic on prospect rankings. Something like 2/3 of prospects end up being absolute busts. MINF is one of the highest bust percentages by position, as well. And just because they debut doesn't mean they'll be a solid regular. I would expect three full seasons from this list to be solid regulars, two to make their debuts. 

The Angels have the 20th ranked system in baseball, so none of these guys are even close to the top 100 prospects, and only Marsh, Detmers, and Bachman are on any lists.

Paris is 19, when he's 24, he might be on the Angels. He also might bust and he is the most sure thing on this list. Jackson won't make the major leagues for any length of time if he doesn't cut down on the strikeouts. 

Semien will be the third place MVP though it should've been Perez. 

 

 

 

 

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

On 11/8/2021 at 12:06 PM, floplag said:

ive had my eye on Stroman for a long time, largely due to ground ball rates.  Down a bit last year but still.
IF we go get one of the better SS, Semien for example, we will have an entire infield of gold glove caliber players, huge for young pitchers and ground ball creators.
For me that a big criteria for whoever we go after as pitchers.  

His OAA isn't great at shortstop and actually a negative! However, he had better range left (Glove side)then compared to right as he was covering more glove side ground being at 2nd and Bichett had the range to his glove side as well... He was covering for VLAD JR.

In an over-shift situation that we played last year.. The 2 or 3 best shortstop for us range wise would be....

1. Nick Ahmed - +19 OAA

2. Correa - +12 OAA

3. SIMBA - +9 OAA

Semien is actually a +7 OAA at 2nd and a -2 OAA at ss during the 2021 season.

Semien at SS through the years 2020 -9 OAA, 2019 -3 OAA, 2018 +1 OAA, 2017 -8 OAA and 2016 -5 OAA... He isn't the best fielder at shortstop. His offense has made up for it on the WAR side.

For those interested in Trevor Story his OAA plummeted from 2019 +18 OAA to 2020 - 0 OAA, to 2021 - -7 OAA is that the loss of solid defensive 3rd baseman and 2nd baseman playing with him?  fielding issues as his lateral quickness starts to disappear due to lower body injuries and age? Which would coincide with his drop in power #'s? Or, are his #'s dropping including his avg vs fastballs, breaking and off-speed all dropped due to lack of protection in the lineup?

[WicketMaiden]

15 hours ago, Hubs said:

6 seasons would be 2022-2027. Just so we're clear.

Fletcher is also under contract for only until 2025 too, with two options after that at ages 32-33, for 8 and 8.5 M. Seeing as if he doesn't rebound we'll be looking for platoon depth in 2022 offseason, I think that they need to add major league talent to the infield. Maybe it's not Semien or someone on a long term deal, but they need major league talent if they are going to field a contender.

Also, I am way more pessimistic on minor league prospects. Is that the MLB.com list? They are far too optimistic on prospect rankings. Something like 2/3 of prospects end up being absolute busts. MINF is one of the highest bust percentages by position, as well. And just because they debut doesn't mean they'll be a solid regular. I would expect three full seasons from this list to be solid regulars, two to make their debuts. 

The Angels have the 20th ranked system in baseball, so none of these guys are even close to the top 100 prospects, and only Marsh, Detmers, and Bachman are on any lists.

Paris is 19, when he's 24, he might be on the Angels. He also might bust and he is the most sure thing on this list. Jackson won't make the major leagues for any length of time if he doesn't cut down on the strikeouts. 

Semien will be the third place MVP though it should've been Perez. 

 

 

 

 

Is English your second language? I'm wondering why you think I don't understand a 6 year contract will run from 22 - 27 inclusive when I clearly stated he would tie up the position UNTIL 2028. 

And in addition to the prospects mentioned, we also have Rengifo, Stefanovic and one or two others on the fringes that escape me just at this moment. Whichever way you cut it, our pipeline at SS is stacked for several years, we just don't have a Major League ready piece right now unless Rengifo suddenly clicks at the plate. Even if two thirds of the nine or so prospects and former prospects fail, we still have three viable options for 2025/26/27, possibly earlier.

Nothing you have said has changed my mind in the slightest that a six year deal for a short-stop would be a waste of resources 4, 5 and 6 years down the line, if not earlier.

Is Semien good, sure. Would he improve us in 2022, undoubtedly. Will the back end of his six year contract be another millstone, yes it absolutely will be.