Official 2021-22 Hot Stove League Thread.

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

and that's where they'll fail.  They'll get a couple of good starters and ignore things that are as important if not more so.  Like having a legit backup for a guy that finished 125th out of 132 in value as an everyday player.  Or rolling into the season with your primary SS being a guy who's had -0.9 WAR the last couple years with his only replacement being a minor leaguer who progressed 3 minor league levels this year.  Or ignoring the fact that half of the value of your entire bullpen came from one guy that.  

The only reason this team didn't lose 100 games last year is because of some decent starter depth and a couple young guys that did well out of the pen.  

I literally can repeat myself enough.  They had the worst offense/defense in all of baseball in the second half of last year.  2.5 WAR for half a year.  And Ohtani and Stassi weren't that bad.  You're never going to win when you lose two of your best players but the lack of position player depth is absolutely scary right now.  

who's gonna play 2b if Fletcher does what he did last year?  

who's gonna play SS.  Just in general. 

what if Marsh and Adell struggle? do you put Upton out there and his -0.1 WAR for the last three years?  

what if Rendon has a setback?

what do they do with Walsh and his 48 wRC+ vs. lefties?

Stassi had an 84 wRC+ in the second half last year.  Not that having a light hitting C is that big of a deal but it matters when you have 4+ other positions of uncertainty.  

Don't ignore the lineup.  In any given season, about 1/4th to 1/3rd of a team's at bats will be from guys who aren't your primary starters.   Roster major league players.  Or guys that have the potential to be.  Don't waiver wire the lineup any more than you would your rotation.  

My biggest reason for optimism is that Atlanta did a pretty good job of filling needs last few years without spending big and without only going cheap. Really hope Perry brings that along.

[Docwaukee]

22 minutes ago, totdprods said:

My biggest reason for optimism is that Atlanta did a pretty good job of filling needs last few years without spending big and without only going cheap. Really hope Perry brings that along.

they traded for like 5 guys at the deadline.  they had horrible depth until then and were two games below .500 on july 31st but saw a clear path due to a weak division and went for it.  The whole reason they did was because they addressed their lack of depth in the lineup.  They were without Acuna and Ozuna and still managed to get it done.  

[Stradling]

10!

[Inside Pitch]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

10!

I know everyone is all caught up in acquiring players and the sort but these are the types of moves I'm most interested in seeing.  This is the time of year when you see all the scout movement, Perry never really had a shot to really target and hire guys.  A lot of the stuff that will impact this franchise the most is likely to happen before they actually get around to signing a player.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

and that's where they'll fail.  They'll get a couple of good starters and ignore things that are as important if not more so.  Like having a legit backup for a guy that finished 125th out of 132 in value as an everyday player.  Or rolling into the season with your primary SS being a guy who's had -0.9 WAR the last couple years with his only replacement being a minor leaguer who progressed 3 minor league levels this year.  Or ignoring the fact that half of the value of your entire bullpen came from one guy that.  

The only reason this team didn't lose 100 games last year is because of some decent starter depth and a couple young guys that did well out of the pen.  

I literally can repeat myself enough.  They had the worst offense/defense in all of baseball in the second half of last year.  2.5 WAR for half a year.  And Ohtani and Stassi weren't that bad.  You're never going to win when you lose two of your best players but the lack of position player depth is absolutely scary right now.  

who's gonna play 2b if Fletcher does what he did last year?  

who's gonna play SS.  Just in general. 

what if Marsh and Adell struggle? do you put Upton out there and his -0.1 WAR for the last three years?  

what if Rendon has a setback?

what do they do with Walsh and his 48 wRC+ vs. lefties?

Stassi had an 84 wRC+ in the second half last year.  Not that having a light hitting C is that big of a deal but it matters when you have 4+ other positions of uncertainty.  

Don't ignore the lineup.  In any given season, about 1/4th to 1/3rd of a team's at bats will be from guys who aren't your primary starters.   Roster major league players.  Or guys that have the potential to be.  Don't waiver wire the lineup any more than you would your rotation.  

Yeah, I hear you. But you're thinking a bit catastrophically - understandable, but the Angels can't possible double up on every player. And of course, few teams could handle losing their to best players for 70% of the season. Imagine if the Red Sox had lost Bogaerts and Devers for that much - they'd have gone from 92 wins to maybe 84.

So to some extent, the Angels have to go forward assuming they can get 260+ games from Trout and Rendon. And they also have to assume that Marsh and Adell will continue to improve, and Ohtani and Walsh can come close to repeating. I also don't see why Fletcher can't bounce back to at least be decent with the bat.

But I think what you are saying is not that they need to revamp the lineup in terms of regulars, but have a much better bench group. If we pencil in Trout, Rendon, Walsh, Adell, Marsh, Upton, Fletcher and Stassi, and consider Ohtani as a pitcher slot, you've got 8 of 12 hitting slots filled. 

So how do you fill those final 4 slots? One has to be a catcher, and there aren't a lot of good options. Two need to be infielders, and one maybe a bat first player. So what's your plan for that? Do you give one of the infield slots to one of Rengifo/Mayfield, with Davis/Stefanic in AAA, and then spend bigger on someone like Chris Taylor, who I know you love? But Taylor isn't a hidden gem anymore, so his agent will be getting plenty of calls. What will he cost? 3/$42M?

So as I said, one option is to go cheap on a couple slots and spend big on two or three. Could they sign Stroman, Cobb, Taylor, and Raisel, and then fill in the gaps with cheap in-house options? 

 

[Docwaukee]

35 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yeah, I hear you. But you're thinking a bit catastrophically - understandable, but the Angels can't possible double up on every player. And of course, few teams could handle losing their to best players for 70% of the season. Imagine if the Red Sox had lost Bogaerts and Devers for that much - they'd have gone from 92 wins to maybe 84.

So to some extent, the Angels have to go forward assuming they can get 260+ games from Trout and Rendon. And they also have to assume that Marsh and Adell will continue to improve, and Ohtani and Walsh can come close to repeating. I also don't see why Fletcher can't bounce back to at least be decent with the bat.

But I think what you are saying is not that they need to revamp the lineup in terms of regulars, but have a much better bench group. If we pencil in Trout, Rendon, Walsh, Adell, Marsh, Upton, Fletcher and Stassi, and consider Ohtani as a pitcher slot, you've got 8 of 12 hitting slots filled. 

So how do you fill those final 4 slots? One has to be a catcher, and there aren't a lot of good options. Two need to be infielders, and one maybe a bat first player. So what's your plan for that? Do you give one of the infield slots to one of Rengifo/Mayfield, with Davis/Stefanic in AAA, and then spend bigger on someone like Chris Taylor, who I know you love? But Taylor isn't a hidden gem anymore, so his agent will be getting plenty of calls. What will he cost? 3/$42M?

So as I said, one option is to go cheap on a couple slots and spend big on two or three. Could they sign Stroman, Cobb, Taylor, and Raisel, and then fill in the gaps with cheap in-house options? 

 

those four guys on your bench plus a bunch of others are likely going to get over a thousand at bats.  Up to 2000 if you sustain injuries or have to deal with poor performance.  How much value do you get from a guy like Villar over someone like Phil Gosselin?  Over David Fletcher if he continues to struggle.  Over Walsh vs. lefties.  In the OF if even one of Marsh, Adell or Upton struggle.   And for what?  Like 7-8 mil you get two wins.  What do you think the dogs have been doing the last 7 years?   Getting about 3+ wins from their bench every year.  Think super Util Chone Figgins.  

And you really think what I mentioned as a catastrophe?  you think there isn't a very real chance that Rengifo sucks?  That Fletcher repeats his season?  That Walsh continues to struggle vs. lefties?  That Upton will suck again?  That at least one of Marsh or Adell won't have that 2-3 WAR year we hope for?  That Stassi won't be below avg at the plate?  

Boston, SF, Seattle and others performed well this year because so much went right for them.  Sure it could happen for the halos but why not mitigate your downside if possible.  And it's absolutely possible yet the Angels have been horrible at that the last few years.  I get why but it doesn't need to be that way in 2022.  A couple decent players and maybe 10-12 mil could make a huge difference.  

But instead we'll cross our fingers and hope that everyone stays healthy and performs to their career avgs instead of preparing for normal things that happen during 162 games.  I'm not asking for star level replacements at every position.  Just someone better than Gosselin or Rojas to put in the OF or at 2b or 1b.  

The biggest mistake teams makes in my opinion is they don't mitigate their downside risk.  And with the emphasis on positional versatility for so many guys, you have a chance to do that.  

[Angelsjunky]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

those four guys on your bench plus a bunch of others are likely going to get over a thousand at bats.  Up to 2000 if you sustain injuries or have to deal with poor performance.  How much value do you get from a guy like Villar over someone like Phil Gosselin?  Over David Fletcher if he continues to struggle.  Over Walsh vs. lefties.  In the OF if even one of Marsh, Adell or Upton struggle.   And for what?  Like 7-8 mil you get two wins.  What do you think the dogs have been doing the last 7 years?   Getting about 3+ wins from their bench every year.  Think super Util Chone Figgins.  

And you really think what I mentioned as a catastrophe?  you think there isn't a very real chance that Rengifo sucks?  That Fletcher repeats his season?  That Walsh continues to struggle vs. lefties?  That Upton will suck again?  That at least one of Marsh or Adell won't have that 2-3 WAR year we hope for?  That Stassi won't be below avg at the plate?  

Boston, SF, Seattle and others performed well this year because so much went right for them.  Sure it could happen for the halos but why not mitigate your downside if possible.  And it's absolutely possible yet the Angels have been horrible at that the last few years.  I get why but it doesn't need to be that way in 2022.  A couple decent players and maybe 10-12 mil could make a huge difference.  

But instead we'll cross our fingers and hope that everyone stays healthy and performs to their career avgs instead of preparing for normal things that happen during 162 games.  I'm not asking for star level replacements at every position.  Just someone better than Gosselin or Rojas to put in the OF or at 2b or 1b.  

The biggest mistake teams makes in my opinion is they don't mitigate their downside risk.  And with the emphasis on positional versatility for so many guys, you have a chance to do that.  

Hey Doc, you misunderstand: I agree with you! I'm honestly asking how you'd fill out those four slots, and thus how much you'd allot of the $50-60M free agent money that people are projecting. Meaning, what would your plan be for "mitigating their downside risk?" And how would you do so while still bolstering the bullpen and rotation?

And by "catastrophe," I don't mean any specific one of those things - but most or all of them happening, thus the "double up" comment. Even losing Troutdon for 71% of "his" games is rather catastrophic, and very unlikely to happen again. But I agree, they need someone between Rendon and Gosselin in terms of quality (or Trout and Lagares!).

Anyhow, while I agree with you that they need to bolster the soft underbelly of the bench, I just think that they're going to skimp on one or two areas. Meaning, hope for the best with what they have, at least in one of the weak spots.

I think one obvious area is back-up catcher. Let's say the Angels can count on 90-100 starts from Stassi. That means they need 60-70 starts. Ideally Thaiss works out, as he also could spell Walsh and provide a solid bat off the bench, but even so they can stay cheap and stash a couple Bembooms in AAA in case of injury and/or Thaiss is a disaster behind the plate.

They could also risk it with the young pitchers, and only bring back Cobb for something like 1/$10M. I'd rather they go after Stroman or even Gausman, but the rotation actually has decent in-house depth.

The budget route to the bullpen would be via trades. Maybe a couple veterans for $3-5M a piece, but I'm leery of more Cisheks. I think they really do need to bring back Raisel and probably one other quality reliever, so we're talking $20M just on two free agent relievers.

So that is either:

$30M for Cobb, Raisel, and a quality reliever, or

$45M for Stroman, Raisel, and a quality reliever, or

$55M for Stroman, Cobb, Raisel, and a quality reliever.

Or somewhere in between (e.g. Cobb and DeScaflani would probably be $45-50M).

Clearly the third option doesn't leave much room to bolster the bench. The second option might get them a Villar, while the first option would allow them to get a Taylor and have some change to spare for other parts (perhaps another reliever). But it leaves the rotation without the new stud that everyone is clamoring for.

Which brings us back to trades. I don't see them being able to get two starters (or one very good one) and Raisel and a much deeper bench without making significant trades.

[tdawg87]

I don't think we have the payroll space to fill all these spots. 50 million for 7-8 players, including Raisel? 

Unfortunately we're going to need to hope some of the guys we already have improve. 

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

I don't think we have the payroll space to fill all these spots. 50 million for 7-8 players, including Raisel? 

Unfortunately we're going to need to hope some of the guys we already have improve. 

I went through this. Several of those 7-8 players can (or will have to be) filled very cheaply: backup catcher, a couple bullpen spots through minor leaguers. We're really talking about spending money on:

1-2 starters

1 middle infielder

2-3 relievers

maybe 1 other bench guy 

 

So, 4-6 new players. Maybe 1 or 2 can be acquire through trades.

So it may end up being $50M for 4 guys, including Raisel. So one scenario would be if they sign Raisel ($15M), Taylor ($15M) and Stroman ($20M, backloaded), they'd have to acquire further relievers via trades and add relievers via trades.

[totdprods]

12 hours ago, Dochalo said:

they traded for like 5 guys at the deadline.  they had horrible depth until then and were two games below .500 on july 31st but saw a clear path due to a weak division and went for it.  The whole reason they did was because they addressed their lack of depth in the lineup.  They were without Acuna and Ozuna and still managed to get it done.  

Not just that, they've done fairly well in FA recent years, without relying on mega-deals or only cheapies. They've shopped well in the mid-tier, which I know you know is risky business. It's where I think the Angels could stand to focus more. 

[Angels 1961]

Trades will be big part this off season to fill halo needs.

[Angelsjunky]

The Braves are a smartly run franchise. Obviously there's that great run in 1991-2005, when they finished first 14 out of 15 years and only finished 2nd in the strike-shortened 1994 season. Somehow they only managed one WS win (and four losses), but it was an amazing run. It was sort of like if the Angels great run had extended from 2002 to 2016, and included a few more World Series appearances.

But what is rather telling about the Braves org is that even after a mediocre period in 2006-09, they bounced back quickly and reached the playoffs three out of four years in 2010-13. They then had a bad four-year run in 2014-17, but bounced back and have made the playoffs in each of the last four years.

The Braves illustrated how even without being one of the biggest spenders, if you're smartly run, you don't have to go more than a few years without being a contender.

The Yankees haven't had a losing record since 1993, and have made the postseason in all but four seasons since then (1994-2021), all four within 2008-16. But their success is largely due to their payroll: they just throw money around, and build a good team that way, although that also includes scouting and player development, which helps with their long-term success. Meaning, you can't just spend your way to perennial success....lots of teams try, but it rarely works in the long run.

The Dodgers look to be the new Yankees: they combine quality team building with a huge payroll. Teams like the Red Sox and Cardinals generally have somewhat lower payrolls, but are run very well, so are rarely far from contention. The Cardinals have had 1 losing season since 2000, 14 playoff berths, and 4 World Series appearances (2 won). The Red Sox have been more binge and purge: they've had four losing seasons in the last decade, but also 2 World Series wins (and 4 since 2004). I don't know for certain, but that 2013 WS team must be one of the only World Series winners that had a losing season both before and after. Oh wait, the Angels did that in 2002!

And of course there's the low payroll Athletics, who go through cycles of contention with fallow periods between, but always seem to get back to being good, because they're very smartly run.

So I think the question the Angels need to ask is what separates them--and similar franchises like the Rangers and Mariners--from franchises like the Braves, Cardinals, and Red Sox. All six teams have money and good markets--they don't need to "Beane it"--but three of those teams are regular contenders, while three are not. Meaning, the Angels shouldn't look at the big-spending Yankees or Dodgers as role-models, nor do they have to emulate the Athletics (or Twins), but should look at those teams who are far more successful but with similar resources, like the Braves, Cardinals, and Red Sox.

[tdawg87]

Scouting.

[angelsnationtalk]

Nick Castellanos opts out. Castellanos, 29, had .309/.362/.576 slash line this year. Had $34M and 2 years to go. Now a free agent. #reds

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 4, 2021

[Dtwncbad]

5 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

No place to play on the Angels unless you want to sign him and move Adell, Marsh or Walsh in a deal for pitching.

Edited November 4, 2021 by Dtwncbad

[Stradling]

I like Castellanos but not as an Angel.  He’s a DH. 

[Hubs]

15 hours ago, Dochalo said:

and that's where they'll fail.  They'll get a couple of good starters and ignore things that are as important if not more so.  Like having a legit backup for a guy that finished 125th out of 132 in value as an everyday player.  Or rolling into the season with your primary SS being a guy who's had -0.9 WAR the last couple years with his only replacement being a minor leaguer who progressed 3 minor league levels this year.  Or ignoring the fact that half of the value of your entire bullpen came from one guy that.  

The only reason this team didn't lose 100 games last year is because of some decent starter depth and a couple young guys that did well out of the pen.  

I literally can repeat myself enough.  They had the worst offense/defense in all of baseball in the second half of last year.  2.5 WAR for half a year.  And Ohtani and Stassi weren't that bad.  You're never going to win when you lose two of your best players but the lack of position player depth is absolutely scary right now.  

who's gonna play 2b if Fletcher does what he did last year?  

who's gonna play SS.  Just in general. 

what if Marsh and Adell struggle? do you put Upton out there and his -0.1 WAR for the last three years?  

what if Rendon has a setback?

what do they do with Walsh and his 48 wRC+ vs. lefties?

Stassi had an 84 wRC+ in the second half last year.  Not that having a light hitting C is that big of a deal but it matters when you have 4+ other positions of uncertainty.  

Don't ignore the lineup.  In any given season, about 1/4th to 1/3rd of a team's at bats will be from guys who aren't your primary starters.   Roster major league players.  Or guys that have the potential to be.  Don't waiver wire the lineup any more than you would your rotation.  

Which is why I think our offseason wish list is gone cost a ton. And I think the Dodgers success and the emergence of Ohtani makes them want to compete, so Arte realizes he's gonna have to spend some $$$$.

I think at 2nd, they have to go with Fletcher. But then they have Rengifo, Davis, Stefanic, and Mayfield to help out, and heck even Rendon, if needed. They need an offensive boost here, as while the defensive metrics don't look good for Fletcher, he is also up for a Gold Glove and Maddon loves his defense.

At SS, they absolutely need to add a bat. Preferably one that plays excellent defense and adds something with the bat. Story or Semien will likely cost less than Seager, Correa, and Baez. Taylor would be okay, but his versatility doesn't really help his defense. Does he want to play SS or 2B exclusively?

If Marsh and Adell struggle, Ward and Upton will play. Upton did look good at times in 2020 and 2021, and is still capable.

Rendon cannot have a setback. Most of the later part of the year, we had Mayfield at 3rd, which isn't ok. I'd imagine Thaiss or Ward would get more time here, if this happened. But like a healthy Trout or Ohtani, to truly compete we need Rendon to be healthy. He was at like a 6 WAR pace in 2020, so I think he'll be just fine.

I didn't know Walsh struggled so much against lefties. I suppose you need a Right Handed Bench Bat. I don't know if this is Ward or someone else. Ward had a great OPS versus lefties in 2021, but not so much in 2020 or in limited 2019 action.

Thaiss had good numbers in 2021 in the minors, primarily at Catcher. If he can do what Walsh or Fletcher or Ward have done by having solid Major League Seasons after recent great seasons at AAA.

 

 

 

 

[HanfordGuy]

22 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Iglesias checks in at #19.

[HanfordGuy]

Big Country on the move…

 

[HanfordGuy]

Some trade candidates for the Angels mentioned were Sonny Gray, Paul DeJong, Josh Hader and Tyler Glasnow. With Glasnow, he most likely won’t take the field until 2023 after having TJ surgery in August.

 

[HanfordGuy]

 

[HanfordGuy]

 

[Blarg]

22 hours ago, Dochalo said:

pretty much.  they'll likely decline the 20m option for seager and have about $35 mil committed in existing contracts and arb.   I think they're gonna go big this year.  Was really surprised they didn't go after Arenado last year.  

Jerry can reunite with his buddy.

[Taylor]

4 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

Trades will be big part this off season to fill halo needs.

[Redondo]

39 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Jerry can reunite with his buddy.

Nice six pack, err.. 30 pack