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Official 2021-22 Hot Stove League Thread.


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19 hours ago, Dochalo said:

and that's where they'll fail.  They'll get a couple of good starters and ignore things that are as important if not more so.  Like having a legit backup for a guy that finished 125th out of 132 in value as an everyday player.  Or rolling into the season with your primary SS being a guy who's had -0.9 WAR the last couple years with his only replacement being a minor leaguer who progressed 3 minor league levels this year.  Or ignoring the fact that half of the value of your entire bullpen came from one guy that.  

The only reason this team didn't lose 100 games last year is because of some decent starter depth and a couple young guys that did well out of the pen.  

I literally can repeat myself enough.  They had the worst offense/defense in all of baseball in the second half of last year.  2.5 WAR for half a year.  And Ohtani and Stassi weren't that bad.  You're never going to win when you lose two of your best players but the lack of position player depth is absolutely scary right now.  

who's gonna play 2b if Fletcher does what he did last year?  

who's gonna play SS.  Just in general. 

what if Marsh and Adell struggle? do you put Upton out there and his -0.1 WAR for the last three years?  

what if Rendon has a setback?

what do they do with Walsh and his 48 wRC+ vs. lefties?

Stassi had an 84 wRC+ in the second half last year.  Not that having a light hitting C is that big of a deal but it matters when you have 4+ other positions of uncertainty.  

Don't ignore the lineup.  In any given season, about 1/4th to 1/3rd of a team's at bats will be from guys who aren't your primary starters.   Roster major league players.  Or guys that have the potential to be.  Don't waiver wire the lineup any more than you would your rotation.  

We are signing 4 starting pitchers now.

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16 hours ago, Dochalo said:

those four guys on your bench plus a bunch of others are likely going to get over a thousand at bats.  Up to 2000 if you sustain injuries or have to deal with poor performance.  How much value do you get from a guy like Villar over someone like Phil Gosselin?  Over David Fletcher if he continues to struggle.  Over Walsh vs. lefties.  In the OF if even one of Marsh, Adell or Upton struggle.   And for what?  Like 7-8 mil you get two wins.  What do you think the dogs have been doing the last 7 years?   Getting about 3+ wins from their bench every year.  Think super Util Chone Figgins.  

And you really think what I mentioned as a catastrophe?  you think there isn't a very real chance that Rengifo sucks?  That Fletcher repeats his season?  That Walsh continues to struggle vs. lefties?  That Upton will suck again?  That at least one of Marsh or Adell won't have that 2-3 WAR year we hope for?  That Stassi won't be below avg at the plate?  

Boston, SF, Seattle and others performed well this year because so much went right for them.  Sure it could happen for the halos but why not mitigate your downside if possible.  And it's absolutely possible yet the Angels have been horrible at that the last few years.  I get why but it doesn't need to be that way in 2022.  A couple decent players and maybe 10-12 mil could make a huge difference.  

But instead we'll cross our fingers and hope that everyone stays healthy and performs to their career avgs instead of preparing for normal things that happen during 162 games.  I'm not asking for star level replacements at every position.  Just someone better than Gosselin or Rojas to put in the OF or at 2b or 1b.  

The biggest mistake teams makes in my opinion is they don't mitigate their downside risk.  And with the emphasis on positional versatility for so many guys, you have a chance to do that.  

Have you started drinking yet, Doc? It will help after the Angels sign their 10th consecutive pitcher without a single position player.

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56 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Have you started drinking yet, Doc? It will help after the Angels sign their 10th consecutive pitcher without a single position player.

 soon enough I think.  you and I do this every year.  depth is key.  yet every year we see them cart out replacement players on the field while people bitch about pitching.  Even though the pitching was league average last year.  Yet we had the worst offense in baseball last year for the second half and it wasn't all because we were missing Trout and Rendon.   But pitching.  

 

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Roberto Perez seems like he might be worth a look:

As for Perez, he’s been unable to replicate his breakout 2019 showing at the plate — a season that saw him swat 24 home runs and post a .239/.321/.452 batting line. Paired with his excellent defense, that offensive output made Perez one of baseball’s best all-around catchers in 2019. Since then, he’s dealt with a pair of shoulder injuries and a fractured finger. It’s quite obviously possible that the arm/hand injuries have combined to sap Perez’s production, but with a more affordable and comparably strong defender available in the form of Austin Hedges, Cleveland unsurprisingly chose to move on.”

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/guardians-exercise-option-jose-ramirez-decline-roberto-perez.html

the option Cleveland declined was for $5.5M.

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On 11/3/2021 at 9:40 AM, Angelsjunky said:

Unfortunately, due to the shitty nature of the season, we've kind of discussed every possibility. But I guess we still have the reality to "enjoy," as it unfolds.

I go into the offseason feeling mildly optimistic. While the team needs some work, there's a good core to work with, and the floor on this team--assuming we don't lose two of our three best players for most of the year--is pretty solid. I know some people won't see this, but consider:

Hitting: The Angels have two superstar hitters in Trout and Ohtani, and two very good ones in Rendon and Walsh (and Rendon, at his best, is a superstar hitter, but I'm being cautious). They also have an above average hitter in Stassi, and two young outfielders in Marsh and Adell that are developing and have a good chance of being above average in 2022. Meaning, six or seven of the nine regulars should be above average, with about four being very good or better. All they really need is some depth, so that the floor on the remaining two positions--2B and SS--is raised a bit from the worst-case scenario (Fletcher repeats 2021 and none of Rengifo/Mayfield/Stefanic/Davis step up). But even without adding one, there are plenty of options, but adding an infielder above scrub level would help. I suppose a solid back-up catcher would help, as well, unless they think Thaiss can handle the job.

Pitching: Ohtani, Sandoval, and Suarez give the Angels three good starters. Add in Canning, Detmers, and Rodriguez, and there's some good young talent, plus a lot of starting depth in Canning, Barria, Daniel, Criswell, Smith, Tyler, etc. Meaning, they probably only need one good starter, maybe a second if they're concerned that at least one of younger guys can't step up. The bullpen needs more work, but they really mostly just need to get two or three good veteran relievers, hopefully one of whom is elite.

So my wishlist, in order of necessity:

  1. A very good starter 
  2. An elite reliever 
  3. A solid middle infielder
  4. One or two good veteran relievers
  5. A second solid starter
  6. A back-up catcher

 

 

I would not call Suarez a good starter nor Canning a good young talent.  I don't see this team making the playoffs unless we aquire 2 good SP

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4 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I would not call Suarez a good starter nor Canning a good young talent.  I don't see this team making the playoffs unless we aquire 2 good SP

How good? Like Cobb or Gray and an elite arm like Scherzer or Stroman or Ray?

Or just the two Grays?
 

If they don't address MINF and Davis or Fletcher doesn't break out, they'll be a lot of rallys killed. Realistically they can't have 4-5 positions with suspect offense and expect to win either. (Both corner OF and MINF, plus Backup C).

 

 

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On 11/3/2021 at 1:53 PM, Dochalo said:

My ideal offseason would be 

Syndergaard on a 1yr deal so he can rebuild his value.  Probably for about 18m
John Gray at 4/70
Taylor at about the same as Gray
Villar at 1/7
Iglesias 3/50
A couple of decently established relievers.  
Manny Pina at backup C.  Maybe Maldonado instead.  

I know that's way too much relative to what I think they'll spend, but a girl can dream.  

Only balk here is:

Is Jon Gray really worth 4 years/$70 million?

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