AngelsWin Today: 2021 Angelswin.com Trade Deadline Series: Playoff-Bound or Not?

[AngelsWin.com]

Author’s Note: Angelswin.com would like to welcome all of the new people who have joined the site! New blood and fresh faces, opinions, and commenters make this Angel fan community stronger, thank you for joining and please feel free to participate in the conversations, as well! Also, for the remainder of this Trade Deadline series we will utilize FanGraphs.com, a premier data-driven baseball website for all of our projected and factual information. Any additional, outlying information used will be credited appropriately to the correct source as needed.

 

Every year, each team in baseball is faced with an important decision heading into the Trade Deadline: Should the team buy or sell?

This decision is typically based on a variety of factors, of which the most important one is the team’s standing in their Division and in the Wild Card hunt. Each General Manager (GM) must balance the odds of winning the rest of the season, based on strength of schedule, team depth, finances, available players and prospects actually available in the marketplace, and a host of other considerations, based on the information available to them at any given moment. Not an easy job and for Angels GM Perry Minasian, in the era of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, it will be an even more difficult decision leading into the last week of July.

So, in order to determine the Angels posture heading into the Trade Deadline (July 30th this year!), we first need to understand what their playoff odds are and, based on that number, what recommendation Perry will make to owner Arte Moreno and what tack they will take toward the remainder of the 2021 season.

FanGraphs has a great tool called ‘MLB Playoff Odds’, located here, that takes the Angels current record and projects their winning percentage (W%) the remainder of the season, based on projected team production and strength of schedule (fancy term for describing how many good and bad teams they will face), and combines those numbers to forecast the Halos final end-of-season record and provide a prediction of their playoff odds to make the postseason.

Below is a graphic showing the Division and Wild Card leaders, across MLB, plus the Angels, in relation to that group:

2021 FanGraphs MLB Playoff Odds for Division Leaders and Los Angeles Angels (as of July 10th, 2021)

The graphic, above, visually shows the challenge (16.2% of reaching the playoffs) our beloved Halos face the remainder of the season and infers to the difficult decisions facing Minasian and the Angels front office about whether to buy, sell, or a combination of both. To be clear, the Angels have a much greater chance of landing a Wild Card spot (13.6%) at this point, than winning the Division (2.6%), but anything is possible in baseball when you play every game.

Certainly any of those choices (buy, sell, or hybrid) could be on the table, here. Perry Minasian must weigh the odds of securing a playoff berth against the information available to him at this moment. Money, players and prospects that appear to be available in trade and interest and inquiries from other teams regarding the availability of Angels players, all must be weighed against the backdrop of improving now versus throwing in the towel on 2021, retooling for 2022 and beyond, or trying to compete the remainder of the season. It is complex to say the least.

For example, the Angels might see a fertile Trade Deadline and know there is a bona fide, ace-level starting pitcher with multiple years of control available that they believe they can acquire to push harder, now, and over succeeding seasons. It may, also, be possible that there are some good, but not great, opportunities and Perry and his team make a modest investment to make the Halos better, now, without sacrificing much of their future. Or maybe the trade market is bare and their opportunities to improve are scarce, so they execute a full selloff, themselves, of their tradable assets to reset for 2022. Or, alternatively, they could sell one or more pieces to interested parties for players and prospects, while simultaneously acquiring one or more pieces to improve the team, and use their depth at certain positions to backfill and reinforce the current squad, continuing to compete in 2021, but hedging their bets, to still win now, while continuing to progress forward.

Based on the Angels current playoff odds, owner Arte Moreno’s past history and expectations, and the fact that the Halos have a lot of one-year expiring contracts on their current roster, it appears that the Angels have the potential to be both buyers and sellers. Moreno has always had a competing attitude and penchant to spend reasonably, when needed, and despite the Angels being 9 games back in the Division, they are only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card. The current 16.2% playoff odds (both Division and Wild Card odds, combined) could embolden Minasian and Moreno to be more aggressive, now, assuming that number holds or improves over the next two weeks. If, however, their playoff odds fall below the 10% mark, they could lean all the way, fully, to the sell side, too. 

In the end the Angels front office has an infinitely better understanding of the Trade Deadline market and what is and is not possible. As fans, on the outside looking in, we simply do not have access to all of the information, including trade negotiations, a Major League team like the Halos do.

However, we, here at Angelswin.com, will attempt to divine the likely trade pieces and even speculate at destinations and possible arrivals. We will make educated guesses, based on the factual information that is available to us, and attempt to point to the likely suspects the Angels might trade away and for, as they approach the 2021 Trade Deadline.

Do you like the Angels chances of reaching the Playoffs? Comment and share your thoughts in the thread!

Up next - 2021 Angelswin.com Trade Deadline Series: Methodology and Analysis

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[Chuck]

The Angels woke up @ettin! 

He's back! 

[greginpsca]

The starting pitching has been fairly decent, excluding April. But, when you are playing so many guys out of position for so long doesn't help. Especially when such persons are not that great defensively in their normal position, cough,cough, Rengifo,cough,cough. And most of all, when your bullpen completely sucks, outside of the closer. That with the fact that there are too many teams they would have to pass. So, no they don't have much of a chance. I just don't see them having what it takes .

[Chuck]

Bullpen. Bullpen. Bullpen. 

Add a SP if it's someone cost controlled like German Marquez, or if a Scherzer deal won't require Adell.

[ettin]

@greginpsca and @Chuckster70 So I get into the particulars of what we need and even suggested sales and buys in succeeding installments, but what do you two (or anyone else for that matter) think of the actual odds discussed here? Is 16.2% worth investing further in the team or is it sell, sell, sell, when you consider upcoming returns to the roster and the remainder of the season being a group of healthy players?

[AngelsLakersFan]

Buy for 2022 and sell everything else.

[greginpsca]

About a 2% chance.  If Perry can deal for controllable assets for next season, go for it. Maybe a ss or catcher or better pitching. All the guys with expiring contracts--- Bye Bye.   August 1st should be the beginning of tryouts for next year. It gives them a better picture of who to give roster spots to. And also gives a better idea of needs remaining for next season, to be addressed during the offseason.

Currently, we can't even pass up Seattle, much less any of the other half dozen or so teams ahead of us. 

[ettin]

So the Angels were at 16.2% playoff odds on July 10th, 2021 and now sit, as of today pre-game, at 6.3%. Not good.

I expect Minasian will see how they perform the next three games, but if they don't start winning, a sell-off will come. This may not be a bad thing, either, because the Angels, as I and others have indicated, can pull from their Minor League depth and fill a lot of holes and still potentially compete, effectively.

[beatlesrule]

11 minutes ago, ettin said:

So the Angels were at 16.2% playoff odds on July 10th, 2021 and now sit, as of today pre-game, at 6.3%. Not good.

I expect Minasian will see how they perform the next three games, but if they don't start winning, a sell-off will come. This may not be a bad thing, either, because the Angels, as I and others have indicated, can pull from their Minor League depth and fill a lot of holes and still potentially compete, effectively.

Do you think Arte will finally allow this? History shows he won't.

[Stradling]

I think “Arte won’t let them trades when we are out of it” is another narrative with no real proof.  It comes down to having little value to trade. 

[Inside Pitch]

14 minutes ago, ettin said:

So the Angels were at 16.2% playoff odds on July 10th, 2021 and now sit, as of today pre-game, at 6.3%. Not good.

I expect Minasian will see how they perform the next three games, but if they don't start winning, a sell-off will come. This may not be a bad thing, either, because the Angels, as I and others have indicated, can pull from their Minor League depth and fill a lot of holes and still potentially compete, effectively.

I'm with you...

I genuinely believe that other than actually acquiring a guy like Scherzer and giving him the extension it would require, the team would be better off calling guys up, putting people capable of fielding their positions on the bench and selling off..  

[ettin]

10 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

I'm with you...

I genuinely believe that other than actually acquiring a guy like Scherzer and giving him the extension it would require, the team would be better off calling guys up, putting people capable of fielding their positions on the bench and selling off..  

Actually, when I said "... and others have indicated", you were the main one in my mind, lol.

[ettin]

26 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Do you think Arte will finally allow this? History shows he won't.

Well I think Minasian may have convinced Arte that selling some, if not all, of certain assets, even if it is for pennies on the dollar, makes sense in light of the talent waiting to come up and go at the Major League level. Considering some of the performances to-date, you have to think an injection of youth and energy could help propel the club while still giving relatively the same performance, i.e. not sure how much replacing Suzuki or, say, Watson/Slegers, with guys on the farm is not an improvement?

[Angels 1961]

Report Giants could make Joey Bart available. Maybe halos could put package together for him.

[ettin]

Angels, as of today, July 26th at 3:22pm PST, sit at 9.3% Playoff Odds per FanGraphs.

This is going to be a difficult decision, when you consider Trout and Rendon's injury status, combined with Moreno's desire to compete and win. Minasian is in a difficult spot, but if I were a betting man, I still think the Angels will do some type of hybrid buy-sell scenario, unless they lose the next couple of games. They are walking on the razor's edge, right now, the calculus is complex internally, despite how it looks as an outsider looking in, thinking it is a clear sell scenario.

[Revad]

I’ll  buy a ticket, he’ll sometimes I play the lottery.  It’s tempting to buy but….

[jsnpritchett]

39 minutes ago, ettin said:

Angels, as of today, July 26th at 3:22pm PST, sit at 9.3% Playoff Odds per FanGraphs.

This is going to be a difficult decision, when you consider Trout and Rendon's injury status, combined with Moreno's desire to compete and win. Minasian is in a difficult spot, but if I were a betting man, I still think the Angels will do some type of hybrid buy-sell scenario, unless they lose the next couple of games. They are walking on the razor's edge, right now, the calculus is complex internally, despite how it looks as an outsider looking in, thinking it is a clear sell scenario.

Baseball-Reference has them at a 0.9% chance of making the playoffs.

[ettin]

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

Baseball-Reference has them at a 0.9% chance of making the playoffs.

As @Dochalo mentioned, each site uses different methodologies, pick your poison!

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, ettin said:

As @Dochalo mentioned, each site uses different methodologies, pick your poison!

Oh, sure, I wasn't complaining that you used Fangraphs.  As Doc mentioned, there's a range.  Guess the larger point is that even the most optimistic methodology still puts them at such a small chance that it's not worth making a push to go for it this year, in my opinion.

[ettin]

Just now, jsnpritchett said:

Oh, sure, I wasn't complaining that you used Fangraphs.  As Doc mentioned, there's a range.  Guess the larger point is that even the most optimistic methodology still puts them at such a small chance that it's not worth making a push to go for it this year, in my opinion.

Actually I just choose to use FanGraphs because I like the way the information is presented overall. Feels easy to find in a lot of cases. Clearly their methodology give more hope than B-Ref or some others. It is strange to me, for example, that the Mariners seem determined to push in so hard, per their own words, despite the fact that B-Ref has them at 6% and FanGraphs has them at 5% or so. You'd think they would be bowing out, but this is what I meant about having all of the information.... some teams may be hearing all of the right signals from the right teams, that give them the feeling they can improve significantly at a cost that is acceptable, whereas others may be bowing out of the race because they just cannot find that right alignment of trades or areas to improve upon. Not to mention the reliance on the decision-making of any GM involved in the conversation and the quality of their support staff's.

If Minasian is hearing a lot of Raisel Iglesias type trades are available to the Halos, this could turn out to be a story of acquisition. However, if their are a lot of Vernon Wells offers, on the market, we would absolutely be better off selling than going down that rabbit hole of plate alignment, again.

There is always so much we do not know. Moreno's involvement will lean heavily into the final decision, but I just hope we execute the right set of trades (whether buying, selling, or both), that are smart and make sense in the moment, no matter how they pan out long term.