Have Acuna and Soto Surpassed Trout

[Stradling]

...as the best player in baseball? How bout Betts?  

[Blarg]

Can we please just get through April? Just one month of not questioning every team member after any one loss?

[Angelsjunky]

I appreciate your efforts, Strad.

But to take it somewhat seriously, I think the answer is: Not yet. Both will eventually, but we have to see consistency over time, and it probably has to correlate with Trout starting to decline.

When I did an article about the top position players in baseball, I used a formula that weighted the last three years (I can't seem to find it via a Google search, but they're both on the blog - I think the last one was published last Oct or Nov).

This approach was muddled a bit by the shortened 2020 season, but I think the basic principle applies. To be the "best player" you can't simply have had the best year (or best month). You need to do it over time. But clearly the more recent the year, the more important.

I think the serious candidates to take the crown from Trout are Betts, Acuna, Soto, and Tatis. A few thoughts on each.

Betts - at his betts, Mookie is as good as Trout (see 2018). But that's only happened in one year, not including 2020. Mookie is still the second best player in the game (at least as of the start of this year), but as good as he's been he's only surpassed the 8 WAR mark twice, in 2016 and 2018. To reach Troutian levels, he really needs to do so year-in and year-out, and that hasn't happened yet. 

Tatis - It is way too soon to tell how good Tatis will become, or if he'll be consistent and healthy enough. He is clearly super talented, putting up 6.5 WAR in his first two half seasons (143 games), but we need to see him over a full season first.

Soto - I think you could argue that he's already the best hitter in the game, and I think once he hits his prime he's going to regularly put years like Bryce Harper's 2015. But his defense is suspect. So it really depends on how good his bat becomes weighted against his defense. If he becomes a regular 180+ wRC+ hitter and is just average defensively, he could become the best player in the game.

Acuna - He's the most well-rounded of the great young trio, so in a way has the most angles at having the value to surpass Trout. I think the question is whether his bat will merely be elite (150+ wRC+) or "super-elite" (170+ wRC+). If the latter, I think he's the guy.

Or it could be all three - it will eventually, but I think the odds that any of them will be as consistently great as Trout has been (and will continue to be, at least for the foreseeable future) are rather low.  Trout has a very good chance of becoming the first non-Bondsian player to surpass 120 WAR since the Mays/Aaron era. While I think the four guys mentioned above are all future Hall of Famers and truly great players, I don't think they'll reach that mark.

 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[failos]

Trout is consistently the best.

[Angelsjunky]

Here's a quick chart that I put together. It is every player who has either led or tied for the MLB lead in WAR during the Trout era (2012-20).

It might be a bit confusing at first, but the details are less important than the trend. Trout is the thick red line that consistent is at or near the top. The other six players share one thing in common: they rise to the top once, and then fall back. None have led or tied for the lead more than once, while Trout has led or tied SIX times (2012-16, 2019). The only time he didn't that he wasn't either injured or the season shortened was 2018, when Betts was at 10.4. 

That is almost unearthly consistency. While it is inevitable that someone surpasses Trout eventually, and maybe even within the next few years, it is very unlikely--as I said in my previous post--that they maintain that level of consistent "bestness."

[Stradling]

“You are so gay”

-Cals 

[Angelsjunky]

One more.

WAR leaders 2019-21 (through today):

1. 12.2 Trout
2. 10.1 Betts
3. 9.9 Rendon
4. 9.7 Bregman
5. 9.6 Acuna
6. 9.4 Bogaerts
7. 9.1 Bellinger
8. 9.0 Semien
9. 8.8 Yelich
10. 8.4 Springer

Soto is 16th with 7.7 and Tatis is 28th with 6.2.

Chances are, none of those guys end the year with more WAR than Trout over that period of time. 

[T.G.]

18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Here's a quick chart that I put together.

And here's mine... Trout on the left... everyone else... well, you can see.

[Don]

What Soto did last year, at the age he did it, is pretty insane. If he gets pretty close to that over a full season, the best hitter in baseball debate is officially over. That said, I'd still consider Trout a better overall player right now because Trout got reasonably close to those numbers in each of his last three full seasons, is a better defender than Soto, and has more speed. Acuna is the most difficult out of the three Strad mentioned to project over a career. I think his floor is basically Eric Davis and his ceiling is Willie Mays.   

[WicketMaiden]

I mean this in the nicest possible way: Trout is a freak. 

He is the type of player that only comes along once every thirty years or so and whilst these other young players are great to watch and have oodles of talent, until they have consistently excelled at Trout's level for several seasons in a row there really isn't a fair comparison between them. 

[Angelsjunky]

Highest wRC+ through age 21 (2013 for Trout, 2020 for Soto):

1. Trout 164
2. Foxx 160
3. Williams 157
4. Soto 152
5. Hornsby 152

That's some pretty good company. Acuna is 13th with 133, Griffey 14th with 130, Correa 16th with 128, A-Rod 17th with 128, Harper 23rd with 124, and Miggy 28th with 121.

[JustATroutFan]

What's the point of asking this question? It's pointless when you know that anyone with a brain would say that Trout is still better than any player in the game right now. Trout will no longer be the best player in all of baseball when he has a bad season with the bat. Although I would love to see Trout start stealing bases again. It's a waste to not see Trout steal bases. Another extra 90 feet puts even more pressure on opposing pitchers. If he wanted to, he would steal like 30 bases a season. 

[Angelsjunky]

19 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

What's the point of asking this question? It's pointless when you know that anyone with a brain would say that Trout is still better than any player in the game right now. Trout will no longer be the best player in all of baseball when he has a bad season with the bat. Although I would love to see Trout start stealing bases again. It's a waste to not see Trout steal bases. Another extra 90 feet puts even more pressure on opposing pitchers. If he wanted to, he would steal like 30 bases a season. 

Well, if he wanted he could steal 50 bases. He stole 49 in 2012 in only 139 games played, and he's only slowed a hair (from 29.7 ft/s in 2015 to 29.1 in 2021, per Statcast). 

But I think the question is: How much is a Trout SB worth relative to the risk of injury? 2017 looms large, when he missed 48 games due to a baserunning injury. He still stole 24 bases in 2018, but then dropped to 11 in 2019 and only 1 last year. Crazy to think that Trout has stolen only 12 bases in his last 201 games played.

I personally would love if he stole 30+ bases a year. In a different era he'd have six 30-30 seasons by now, and one or two 40-40 seasons. But on the other hand, 90% of his value is his bat, and you don't want to risk taking that out of the lineup for a few more SB.

[Lou]

Soto was placed on the IL today. 

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, Lou said:

Soto was placed on the IL today. 

Was it me?

[Lou]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Was it me?

[JustATroutFan]

11 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Well, if he wanted he could steal 50 bases. He stole 49 in 2012 in only 139 games played, and he's only slowed a hair (from 29.7 ft/s in 2015 to 29.1 in 2021, per Statcast). 

But I think the question is: How much is a Trout SB worth relative to the risk of injury? 2017 looms large, when he missed 48 games due to a baserunning injury. He still stole 24 bases in 2018, but then dropped to 11 in 2019 and only 1 last year. Crazy to think that Trout has stolen only 12 bases in his last 201 games played.

I personally would love if he stole 30+ bases a year. In a different era he'd have six 30-30 seasons by now, and one or two 40-40 seasons. But on the other hand, 90% of his value is his bat, and you don't want to risk taking that out of the lineup for a few more SB.

2018 Trout is my favorite version of Trout. That 198 OPS+ that he put up that season was just incredible. It's still is incredible just knowing that. Plus, he was stealing bases, like you already pointed out, while going back to playing terrific defense. The second best version of Trout is either 2012 or 2013. It's a toss up for me. But I don't see how 2018 Trout is not the best version of Trout since 2012. That .312/.460/.628 slash line and 198 OPS+ is just too big of a gap from 2012 and 2013 despite fewer stolen bases in each of those two seasons. But even without any stolen bases this season, pitchers are still cautious of Trout's speed. I'm not going to let Trout's lack of stolen bases these days trick me into thinking he's now slow. 

[sammyscioscia]

If he keeps playing the way he has this year he will be passed up.

[Angelsjunky]

19 minutes ago, JustATroutFan said:

2018 Trout is my favorite version of Trout. That 198 OPS+ that he put up that season was just incredible. It's still is incredible just knowing that. Plus, he was stealing bases, like you already pointed out, while going back to playing terrific defense. The second best version of Trout is either 2012 or 2013. It's a toss up for me. But I don't see how 2018 Trout is not the best version of Trout since 2012. That .312/.460/.628 slash line and 198 OPS+ is just too big of a gap from 2012 and 2013 despite fewer stolen bases in each of those two seasons. But even without any stolen bases this season, pitchers are still cautious of Trout's speed. I'm not going to let Trout's lack of stolen bases these days trick me into thinking he's now slow. 

I think my favorite version is still 2012-13 - sort of like a combination of Rickey Henderson at his best, but with less steals but more power and average. Plus, that was the best defensive version. But yeah, his hitting jumped to a new level in 2017, and 2018 was the best hitting version of Trout. Too bad he got injured, because he was on pace for 50+ HR and 10.5 WAR, which would have been his best (via Fangraphs).

[Angelsjunky]

2 minutes ago, sammyscioscia said:

If he keeps playing the way he has this year he will be passed up.

Yes, my son.

[Angelsjunky]

One more nerdy thing to highlight how great he's been.

Top 21 seasons by active players, according to Fangraphs WAR (or all 8+ WAR seasons by active players):

1. Betts 2018, 10.4
2. Trout 2013, 10.2
3. Posey 2012, 10.1
4. Trout 2012, 10.1
5. Trout 2016, 9.7
6. Trout 2018, 9.6
7. Pujols 2003, 9.5
8. Harper 2015, 9.3
9. Trout 2015, 9.3
10. Donaldson 2015, 8.7
11. Pujols 2008, 8.7
12. Cabrera 2013, 8.6
13. Bregman 2019, 8.5
14. Trout 2019, 8.5
15. Pujols 2009, 8.4
16. Judge 2017, 8.3
17. Trout 2014, 8.3
18. Betts 2016, 8.3
19. Ramirez 2018, 8.1
20. Pujols 2006, 8.1
21. McCutchen 2013, 8.1

Trout's got four of the top six, five of the top nine, and seven of the top seventeen. The only of his seasons not on that list are 2011 (his cup), 2017 (missed 48 games), and 2020 (60-game season).

Or to put that another way:

Number of 8+ WAR seasons by active players:

7: Trout

4: Pujols

2: Betts

1: Posey, Harper, Judge, Bregman, Cabrera, Ramirez, McCutchen, Donaldson

In other words, for most superstars, an 8 WAR season is a career year. All-time greats will have multiple such seasons. For Trout, it is the expected baseline; actually, 9 WAR is the expected baseline when he's healthy, as 5 of his 7 full seasons have been at least 9 WAR.

Oh, yeah: Trout has as many 8 WAR seasons as any three active players combined.

[UndertheHalo]

Would any of you trade Trout for Soto or Acuna ?  I think whatever the answer to that is the answer to the question. 

[Angelsjunky]

32 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Would any of you trade Trout for Soto or Acuna ?  I think whatever the answer to that is the answer to the question. 

I don't agree. The best player right now is not necessarily the most valuable going forward. Trout is probably more than halfway through his career value, while those guys are just getting started. 

I think Trout ends up with anything from 120-150 WAR, probably in the 130-140 range. That means he has 55+ WAR of value remaining.

Let's say Acuna and Soto are both Hall of Famers, but not inner circle (100+ WAR) but more like "garden variety greats," in the ~80 WAR range. That means they both have about 70+ WAR remaining in their career.

On paper it would be smart to make that trade for either one, and this isn't even accounting for salary. But two reasons why I don't:

1) We know how great Trout is and will likely to be for a few more years, and perhaps longer. We don't know how great Acuna or Soto will become, or how we'll they'll maintain their greatness.

2) Trout is our guy. I'm sorry, but baseball has to be more than just winning and losing, more than fantasy baseball. Trout is the greatest Angel, and probably always will be. This game has got to be about more than winning.*

*OK, I stole that from Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday.

[Angels_Make_Me_Drink]

Sure...

If you’re into overreactive hot takes

[UndertheHalo]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I don't agree. The best player right now is not necessarily the most valuable going forward. Trout is probably more than halfway through his career value, while those guys are just getting started. 

I think Trout ends up with anything from 120-150 WAR, probably in the 130-140 range. That means he has 55+ WAR of value remaining.

Let's say Acuna and Soto are both Hall of Famers, but not inner circle (100+ WAR) but more like "garden variety greats," in the ~80 WAR range. That means they both have about 70+ WAR remaining in their career.

On paper it would be smart to make that trade for either one, and this isn't even accounting for salary. But two reasons why I don't:

1) We know how great Trout is and will likely to be for a few more years, and perhaps longer. We don't know how great Acuna or Soto will become, or how we'll they'll maintain their greatness.

2) Trout is our guy. I'm sorry, but baseball has to be more than just winning and losing, more than fantasy baseball. Trout is the greatest Angel, and probably always will be. This game has got to be about more than winning.*

*OK, I stole that from Al Pacino in Any Given Sunday.

It’s a simple quick way to get an answer.  Once you have a critical mass of Angels fans saying they’ll trade the greatest player in franchise history, the debate is over.  He’s not the best player any more.  Today it’s still easy to argue that he’s the best.  There’s no absolute right or wrong answer to this question.  Obviously a handful of players are in the same sphere of excellence right now.