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What are your predictions for Quintana as a member of the Angels?


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Years ago, this would have been a terrific move when Quintana was a terrific starting pitcher on the White Sox from 2013-2016. I always thought he was an underrated arm with the White Sox. He hasn't been pitching at an All-Star level for quite some time but he's proven that he can be very valuable as a starting pitcher. I think he could put up an era between 3.75-3.90 and a 1.30 WHIP with the Angels this upcoming regular season. Angel Stadium is still pitcher-friendly despite not as much as it was before. 

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46 minutes ago, Stradling said:

A more palpable version of Heaney. He will have around a 4 ERA and gives us the 2nd or 3rd most amount of innings behind our next acquisition and Bundy.  He will keep us in nearly every game he pitches.  

This. He was a good #3 in his last full season in 2019, so I expect him to return to about that level. 3-4 WAR, 3.50-4.00ish ERA, 180+ IP. Has a good chance to be the Angels' second best starter after Bundy, if no further signings.

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9 minutes ago, Rollinghard said:

"This. He was a good #3 in his last full season in 2019, so I expect him to return to about that level. 3-4 WAR, 3.50-4.00ish ERA, 180+ IP. Has a good chance to be the Angels' second best starter after Bundy, if no further signings."

Depression is real. 

Yawn

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1 hour ago, Rollinghard said:

"This. He was a good #3 in his last full season in 2019, so I expect him to return to about that level. 3-4 WAR, 3.50-4.00ish ERA, 180+ IP. Has a good chance to be the Angels' second best starter after Bundy, if no further signings."

Depression is real. 

Well, the predicted numbers you quoted would make him one of the 30 best starters in baseball, so having two of the 30 best isn’t so bad.

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Quintana's WAR ranks among all MLB pitchers with 100+ innings (about 140ish per year), 2013 through 2019:

28th, 12th, 16th, 8th, 15th, 83rd, 32nd

In 2020 he barely pitched, due to a freak injury that shouldn't have any long-term impact (he cut his finger). Even if he doesn't return to his 2014-17 prime, when he was a consist 4+ WAR, top 20 pitcher, I don't see any reason to think that he shouldn't at least return to his 2019 form, when he had a 3.4 WAR. Also, before we become concerned about his 4.68 ERA that year, note that his FIP was 3.80, right around his career ERA (3.73), which is more indicative of future performance (The main utility is of FIP is that it fluctuates far less than ERA, and is more indicative of the quality of performance - especially in a predictive manner).

If I were to guess, I'd say he's got about a 50% of returning to 2019 form, 20% chance of returning to his prime 2014-17 form, 20% chance of declining to maybe a 2 WAR innings eater, and 10% chance of some freak injury that sees him miss significant time. In other words, a very good investment for $8M, all things considered.

 

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4 minutes ago, failos said:

Pretty sad how this is the guy we're talking about right now. This team doesn't care about pitching...

I disagree, as I've said above. Sure, it will be sad if he's all the Angels do as far as the rotation is concerned, but there's still a lot of offseason left.

Or to put it another way, here are the number of 3+ WAR seasons each of the major free agent and traded starters have had:

6 Quintana

5 Darvish

4 Paxton, Stroman

3 Porcello

2 Tanaka, Bauer, Taillon, Morton, Minor, Happ

1 Odorizzi, Gausman, Musgrove, Snell, Richards

0 Walker

 

Or to put it another way, Quintana has had as many "good seasons" as Tanaka, Bauer, Richards, and Odorizzi combined. and he's 32 - not young ,but not ancient.

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10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I disagree, as I've said above. Sure, it will be sad if he's all the Angels do as far as the rotation is concerned, but there's still a lot of offseason left.

Or to put it another way, here are the number of 3+ WAR seasons each of the major free agent and traded starters have had:

6 Quintana

5 Darvish

4 Paxton, Stroman

3 Porcello

2 Tanaka, Bauer, Taillon, Morton, Minor, Happ

1 Odorizzi, Gausman, Musgrove, Snell, Richards

0 Walker

 

Or to put it another way, Quintana has had as many "good seasons" as Tanaka, Bauer, Richards, and Odorizzi combined. and he's 32 - not young ,but not ancient.

I have no doubt Quintana will be fine/adequate. I'm just alarmed that the Angels are continuing their trend of not signing good pitchers for multi-year deals which to me, indicates they are continuing to not prioritize pitching. The statistic you posted is interesting, but Quintana is no longer at his prime, and whatever he can provide is not enough to propel this team to contention.

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29 minutes ago, failos said:

I have no doubt Quintana will be fine/adequate. I'm just alarmed that the Angels are continuing their trend of not signing good pitchers for multi-year deals which to me, indicates they are continuing to not prioritize pitching. The statistic you posted is interesting, but Quintana is no longer at his prime, and whatever he can provide is not enough to propel this team to contention.

But with pitchers like Quintana, a one year deal is exactly what you want. I suppose 2/$12M would be better, but there's no way he'd accept that. My guess is that he is hoping for a return to 3-4 WAR form, after which he might be able to get 2-3 years at $12-15M per, depending upon how well he bounces back.

The Angels now have three solid mid-rotation guys who will be free agents next year. They'll want to see how the younger pitchers do--not only Ohtani, Canning, Barria and Sandoval, but also Detmers, Rodriguez and Yan--before deciding what to do with the older guys. But chances are they offer at least one of them a multi-year contract, probably Bundy.

And who knows, maybe Bauer is still possible - or, if not, Gray, Odorizzi, etc.

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Just now, Angelsjunky said:

But with pitchers like Quintana, a one year deal is exactly what you want. I suppose 2/$12M would be better, but there's no way he'd accept that. My guess is that he is hoping for a return to 3-4 WAR form, after which he might be able to get 2-3 years at $12-15M per, depending upon how well he bounces back.

The Angels now have three solid mid-rotation guys who will be free agents next year. They'll want to see how the younger pitchers do--not only Ohtani, Canning, Barria and Sandoval, but also Detmers, Rodriguez and Yan--before deciding what to do with the older guys. But chances are they offer at least one of them a multi-year contract, probably Bundy.

And who knows, maybe Bauer is still possible - or, if not, Gray, Odorizzi, etc.

I completely agree, I was mostly referring to signing better pitchers at multi-year contracts. I have no issue with giving a guy like Quintana a flyer...I just fear that this type of deal is all the Angels are interested in making with pitchers in general.

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