The Angels are better than you might think

[Claude]

21 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/mlbtr-poll-how-good-are-the-angels.html

Seems legit

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 hours ago, Hubs said:

C...I think Stassi's projection is a little rosy, but lets stick with it.

Considering Max has never had a season with a WAR above 1.0 and will probably miss the beginning of the season. And his career WAR is -0.1. I highly doubt the remarkable improvement after having hip surgery required to reach 2.5 WAR...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/angels-max-stassi-hip-surgery-six-months.html

Angels catcher Max Stassi will undergo right hip surgery and require a recovery timeline of four to six months, manager Brad Ausmus announced to reporters Tuesday (Twitter link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register).

That timeline could well hinder Stassi, 28, from being ready for the beginning of Spring Training. A six-month rehab process would carry him through late March, potentially rendering him unavailable for the start of the 2020 campaign...

[Angelsjunky]

1 minute ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Considering Max has never had a season with a WAR above 1.0 and will probably miss the beginning of the season. And his career WAR is -0.1. I highly doubt the remarkable improvement after having hip surgery required to reach 2.5 WAR...

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/angels-max-stassi-hip-surgery-six-months.html

Angels catcher Max Stassi will undergo right hip surgery and require a recovery timeline of four to six months, manager Brad Ausmus announced to reporters Tuesday (Twitter link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register).

That timeline could well hinder Stassi, 28, from being ready for the beginning of Spring Training. A six-month rehab process would carry him through late March, potentially rendering him unavailable for the start of the 2020 campaign...

Stassi had a 2.7 WAR according to Fangraphs in just 88 games in 2018, thus the projection.

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

27 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Stassi had a 2.7 WAR according to Fangraphs in just 88 games in 2018, thus the projection.

 

BR has him at 1.0 once in 2018, -0.8 for the Astros and -0.8 for Angels in 2019. I guess Fangraphs places more value on defense than Baseball Reference does. Regardless 1 good season out 7 makes it seem more like an outlier than a prediction of things to come...

[tdawg87]

Let's be real, we got Stassi for his intangibles. He ain't gonna put up pretty numbers. But his impact on the pitching staff could be significant.

[UndertheHalo]

Max Stassi is going to be the starting catcher in 2020 isn’t he. 
 

rip. 

Edited December 28, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[tdawg87]

7 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Max Stassi is going to be the starting catcher in 2020 isn’t he. 
 

rip. 

I think he's missing the first month or something

[angelsnationtalk]

8 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

If they add Chirinos, the offense gets even better. 

And then if we can swing a trade for another starter, I think this could easily be the 2nd best team in the West.

Obviously injuries will happen, but we have depth now at pretty much every position (besides catcher).

Throw in some good luck for a change and maybe.

I'm expecting a breakout year from Canning. I think he will be the 2nd best pitcher on the team in 2020. He'll be 24, and has 90 innings under his belt already. I think an off-season of working with Callaway will do wonders for him. I expect 150-160 innings with an ERA around 3.50.

I also fully believe in Upton rebounding. He will be a 2.5-3.0 WAR player in 2020.

You can thank the trashcan for Chirinos' good offense

[Angelsjunky]

5 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

BR has him at 1.0 once in 2018, -0.8 for the Astros and -0.8 for Angels in 2019. I guess Fangraphs places more value on defense than Baseball Reference does. Regardless 1 good season out 7 makes it seem more like an outlier than a prediction of things to come...

But we're talking about  Fangraphs and their projections, so it makes sense to stick with their version of WAR. And yes, their catcher WAR includes pitch framing, which Stassi was very good at in both 2018 and 2019. The projection isn't that outlandish if he can hit above the Mendoza line  and defend like he did in either year.

And looking at anything before 2018 doesn't make any sense at all ("1 good season out of 7")  considering he didn't surpass 31 PA until 2018. 

 

[tdawg87]

4 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

You can thank the trashcan for Chirinos' good offense

His best season was with Texas, so no.

[failos]

7 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

You take this evil off us and change the title. 

Seems like the kind of thread @Lou will agree with many months later.

Thanks @Angelsjinxy

[fan_since79]

13 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

@Hubs, I like the optimism and good post, but the main problem is that you'd have to do the same for all other teams. Fangraphs ZIPs projections are notoriously low...so if we're going to upgrade the Angels, we have to upgrade everyone else...the  point being, it all evens out. 

But I'm going back to the original point: 90 wins is far more optimistic than most here are feeling, especially after being burned on a rotation upgrade. Fangraphs knows what Eppler knows: that not only was the 2019 72-90 record far below the team's true talent level, but they've already  upgraded substantially with Rendon, Bundy, and Teheran, not to mention 20+ starts of Ohtani, more Canning and Sandoval, etc.

For me the over/under on wins for 2020 is 87. Below 87 and I think the team has underperformed, above that and they're doing well.

76-86 and 16 games behind second wild card.

Hope I'm wrong and we do better than this.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

76-86 and 16 games behind second wild card.

Hope I'm wrong and we do better than this.

If it takes 100 wins to win the 2nd wild card then Eppler could put together a 95 win team, they’d finish 5 games out and people would be calling for his head. 

[eligrba]

8 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If it takes 100 wins to win the 2nd wild card then Eppler could put together a 95 win team, they’d finish 5 games out and people would be calling for his head. 

I believe the argument would be that Eppler should have put together a 95 win team 4 yrs earlier.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, eligrba said:

I believe the argument would be that Eppler should have put together a 95 win team 4 yrs earlier.

Yea and that’s a stupid argument. 

[totdprods]

Injuries have really torched this team more than lack of talent. Not surprising to see projections looking upon us favorably. 

All it takes is health finally averaging out back in our favor and we’re a contender.

[T.G.]

17 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

 The Angels are well known for spectacular crash and burns.

False narrative 

[nando714]

They’re a 72 win team from a year ago 

add an elite bat

two below avg pitchers

how are we a playoff team. 81-81 at best in 2019

[Lou]

46 minutes ago, nando714 said:

They’re a 72 win team from a year ago 

add an elite bat

two below avg pitchers

how are we a playoff team. 81-81 at best in 2019

other than Ohtani, who is the other below average pitcher? 

[CanadianHalo]

51 minutes ago, nando714 said:

They’re a 72 win team from a year ago 

add an elite bat

two below avg pitchers

how are we a playoff team. 81-81 at best in 2019

Pretty much.

[Jeff Fletcher]

56 minutes ago, nando714 said:

They’re a 72 win team from a year ago 

add an elite bat

two below avg pitchers

how are we a playoff team. 81-81 at best in 2019

Most of the time a team’s improvement or decline is mostly the result of the improvement or decline of the players they already had, not the offseason additions/subtractions. 
 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, nando714 said:

They’re a 72 win team from a year ago 

add an elite bat

two below avg pitchers

how are we a playoff team. 81-81 at best in 2019

Consider:

*Simmons/Upton went from 8.5 WAR in 2018 to 1.5 WAR in 2019, a 7 WAR (wins) drop. Even if we only split the difference and project 5 WAR in 2020, that's 3-4 wins gained.

*Between Stratton, Harvey, Peters, Barria, Garcia,  Allen, Suarez, and Cahill, the  Angels had 500 IP of -4.3 WAR pitching. Now some of those guys  will  return, but replace 300-350 IP of that with Bundy/Teheran for 3-4 WAR, and you see +4-6 wins.

*Anthony Rendon should be good for 6+ WAR, another improvement of +5 wins or so.

*Shohei Ohtani didn't pitch at all in 2019. In 2018 he accrued 1.0 WAR in 10 starts.Let's say he doubles that in 2020 (a modest projection), which replaces more replacement level performance (if not worse) and adds +2 wins.

So just in those four areas, we see a 14-17 win improvement, or 86-89  wins. That, to me, is about  the baseline of what I expect from the Angels in 2020. Add in a bit of luck and positive development from rising young players like Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Barria, Rengifo, Adell, etc, and the Angels could win 90+ games.

Again, 90+ wins does require some positive fortune. But  as the team stands, this is about an 85-90 win team.

[nando714]

How many innings/starts can we expect From Ohtani though? 15-20 before he’s shut down? 

[Angelsjunky]

Just now, nando714 said:

How many innings/starts can we expect From Ohtani though? 15-20 before he’s shut down? 

Forgive me. That shouldn't be projected 86-89 wins, but 85.5 to 88.5.

Not to be a smartass, but my +2 wins from Ohtani is based on him only producing twice what he did in 2018, or 50 innings. I think it is reasonable to hope that he pitches 100 innings in 2020.

[Lou]

6 minutes ago, nando714 said:

How many innings/starts can we expect From Ohtani though? 15-20 before he’s shut down? 

good to see you're in that Yuletide spirit