The Angels are better than you might think

[Angelsjunky]

I was a bit surprised to see this. If you are link-o-phobic, that is the Fangraphs depth chart page. They currently  project the Angels for an MLB 7th-best 42.5 WAR next year, which translates to approximately 90 wins (an all replacement level team wins about 48 games; 48 + 42 = 90).

That 42.5 WAR breaks down to 29.7 Batting Wins, tied with the Dodgers and Red Sox for 2nd best, and 12.8 Pitching wins, or 23rd best. This supports what we all already know: the offense should be really good, and the pitching is mediocre at best.

These projecions are as of right now,  so every team can improve (btw, I believe WAR just shifts around...so if one team improves, all others go down a bit). Meaning, the Angels could easily fall a few rankings, but they could also get a bit better.

Either way, I think there is reason to be somewhat  optimistic about this. The team--as currently configured--is better than most people here seem to think it is, at least according to Fangraphs. Obviously projections are highly dubious, but if you look at their projected stats, there is nothing that stands out as particularly outlandish. Actually, there is one: Max Stassi accruing  2.5 WAR, but that's balanced by low projections for other players (Fletcher at 2.1, Rendon at 5.7, etc). Either way, it all evens out.

Improvements can still be made. It is highly unlikely that the Angels will enter Spring Training with a catching corps of Stassi-Bemboom. Strangely  enough, though, Stassi projects to a higher WAR than any free agent catcher (Castro is highest at 1.8). So even if they improve at catcher, it won't improve the projection.

It is more likely, though,  that the rotation is set. I wouldn't say that it necessarily is, but I don't think (or hope) that Eppler is going to send a big package of prospects to trade for another starter. He might bargain hunt. But  none of the remaining  free agents--such as Bailey, Wood, Hill, Noval, Chacin,  Smyly, etc--will improve the Angels projection. So unless Eppler wants to shell out a nice package for a Noah Syndergaard, the projection probably won't change.

Conclusion: The Angels are, right now, one of the top 10  teams in all of baseball or, at worst, close to it. They should win 85-90  games without changing anything. With a combination of luck, positive player development, and maybe a tweak or two, they could win 90+  games and compete for a wildcard spot. Meaning, they're entering 2020 in a better position that about  two-thirds of all major league teams. That isn't so bad now, is it?

Yes, Cole would have been nice, but Rendon alone has probably improved the team more than any player other than Cole would have, at least as much as Strasburg or Wheeler. Bundy and Teheran have, at least, bolstered the rotation with  300+ decent innings, replacing some rather terrible results from the likes of Stratton, Harvey, Cahill and Suarez last year. Positive regression and development from at least some of Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria, should turn the rotation from MLB worst to at least decent, and possibly average or better.

So take heart! 2020 should be a much better year than 2019. 

[tdawg87]

If they add Chirinos, the offense gets even better. 

And then if we can swing a trade for another starter, I think this could easily be the 2nd best team in the West.

Obviously injuries will happen, but we have depth now at pretty much every position (besides catcher).

Throw in some good luck for a change and maybe.

I'm expecting a breakout year from Canning. I think he will be the 2nd best pitcher on the team in 2020. He'll be 24, and has 90 innings under his belt already. I think an off-season of working with Callaway will do wonders for him. I expect 150-160 innings with an ERA around 3.50.

I also fully believe in Upton rebounding. He will be a 2.5-3.0 WAR player in 2020.

[Pancake Bear]

7 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I was a bit surprised to see this. If you are link-o-phobic, that is the Fangraphs depth chart page. They currently  project the Angels for an MLB 7th-best 42.5 WAR next year, which translates to approximately 90 wins (an all replacement level team wins about 48 games; 48 + 42 = 90).

That 42.5 WAR breaks down to 29.7 Batting Wins, tied with the Dodgers and Red Sox for 2nd best, and 12.8 Pitching wins, or 23rd best. This supports what we all already know: the offense should be really good, and the pitching is mediocre at best.

These projecions are as of right now,  so every team can improve (btw, I believe WAR just shifts around...so if one team improves, all others go down a bit). Meaning, the Angels could easily fall a few rankings, but they could also get a bit better.

Either way, I think there is reason to be somewhat  optimistic about this. The team--as currently configured--is better than most people here seem to think it is, at least according to Fangraphs. Obviously projections are highly dubious, but if you look at their projected stats, there is nothing that stands out as particularly outlandish. Actually, there is one: Max Stassi accruing  2.5 WAR, but that's balanced by low projections for other players (Fletcher at 2.1, Rendon at 5.7, etc). Either way, it all evens out.

Improvements can still be made. It is highly unlikely that the Angels will enter Spring Training with a catching corps of Stassi-Bemboom. Strangely  enough, though, Stassi projects to a higher WAR than any free agent catcher (Castro is highest at 1.8). So even if they improve at catcher, it won't improve the projection.

It is more likely, though,  that the rotation is set. I wouldn't say that it necessarily is, but I don't think (or hope) that Eppler is going to send a big package of prospects to trade for another starter. He might bargain hunt. But  none of the remaining  free agents--such as Bailey, Wood, Hill, Noval, Chacin,  Smyly, etc--will improve the Angels projection. So unless Eppler wants to shell out a nice package for a Noah Syndergaard, the projection probably won't change.

Conclusion: The Angels are, right now, one of the top 10  teams in all of baseball or, at worst, close to it. They should win 85-90  games without changing anything. With a combination of luck, positive player development, and maybe a tweak or two, they could win 90+  games and compete for a wildcard spot. Meaning, they're entering 2020 in a better position that about  two-thirds of all major league teams. That isn't so bad now, is it?

Yes, Cole would have been nice, but Rendon alone has probably improved the team more than any player other than Cole would have, at least as much as Strasburg or Wheeler. Bundy and Teheran have, at least, bolstered the rotation with  300+ decent innings, replacing some rather terrible results from the likes of Stratton, Harvey, Cahill and Suarez last year. Positive regression and development from at least some of Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, and Barria, should turn the rotation from MLB worst to at least decent, and possibly average or better.

So take heart! 2020 should be a much better year than 2019. 

One projection I saw had them as the 5th best team in the AL. Interesting, that was behind Houston and 3 AL East teams, so still short of a playoff team.

[Angelsjunky]

22 minutes ago, Pancake Bear said:

One projection I saw had them as the 5th best team in the AL. Interesting, that was behind Houston and 3 AL East teams, so still short of a playoff team.

Yeah, that makes sense. I think part of the problem is the AL log-jam. The  Yankees and Astros are great. The Red Sox should bounce back. Then there are a buncho f 85-90ish win teams, including the Angels, vying  for a wildcard.

Meaning, the season should be interesting baseball.

I mean, if anything we should  be applauding Eppler for still making the team relevant despite missing out on every significant free agent pitcher. He did so by signing the best free agent position player and getting two serviceable starters for relatively little. All while building and/or retaining depth not trading away any really good prospects*.

(*OK, trading Will Wilson for $12.67M was a bit dubious, but I can live with that.)

[krAbs]

Adell is projected at 224 plate appearances for 0.1 WAR (note, we are projected to get 0.2 WAR out of right field in total), and Cannning is projected at 135 innings pitched for 1.7 WAR. Those two stepping up could be huge. Also, Teheran is interesting. Given his career WAR/IP, if he pitches 179 innings, you would project that he accumulates 1.8 WAR (though only 1.6 WAR if he produces the same rate that he did last year). Lets hope he can continue to confound pitching metrics....

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Adell is projected at 224 plate appearances for 0.1 WAR (note, we are projected to get 0.2 WAR out of right field in total), and Cannning is projected at 135 innings pitched for 1.7 WAR. Those two stepping up could be huge. Also, Teheran is interesting. Given his career WAR/IP, if he pitches 179 innings, you would project that he accumulates 1.8 WAR (though only 1.6 WAR if he produces the same rate that he did last year). Lets hope he can continue to confound pitching metrics....

Adell is definitely a wildcard player. The projection assumes he'll have little to no impact, but if he catches on quickly he could add a win or two over Goodwin.

That said, I don't expect a ton from him in 2020 as there will be a learning curve. He'll probably have somewhere between 200 and 400 plate appearances, and produce 0-2 WAR, depending upon how quickly he adjusts to major league pitching. But we really  need to temper expectations - anything above the Fangraphs projection is a bonus. 

[Chuck]

55 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

If they add Chirinos, the offense gets even better. 

And then if we can swing a trade for another starter, I think this could easily be the 2nd best team in the West.

Obviously injuries will happen, but we have depth now at pretty much every position (besides catcher).

Throw in some good luck for a change and maybe.

I'm expecting a breakout year from Canning. I think he will be the 2nd best pitcher on the team in 2020. He'll be 24, and has 90 innings under his belt already. I think an off-season of working with Callaway will do wonders for him. I expect 150-160 innings with an ERA around 3.50.

I also fully believe in Upton rebounding. He will be a 2.5-3.0 WAR player in 2020.

Chirinos and Castro are pretty much a wash offensively. As @ettin said in the Catching Primer article thread, Castro is the much better defender and pitch framer. The fact that he bats left to balance out the lineup, I'd go with him and I think he'll be the cheaper of the two as well.

[UndertheHalo]

4 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Chirinos and Castro are pretty much a wash offensively. As @ettin said in the Catching Primer article thread, Castro is the much better defender and pitch framer. The fact that he bats left I'd go with him and I think he'll be the cheaper of the two as well.

I’m honestly surprised they haven’t signed him yet.  It’s slightly concerning.  It seems like such an obvious move. 

[Pancake Bear]

2 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I’m honestly surprised they haven’t signed him yet.  It’s slightly concerning.  It seems like such an obvious move. 

Probably wants two years. 

[floplag]

My initial response to this was going to be "that depends how good you think the team is", but for the most part, it pretty much nailed it i thought. 

We were supposed to be a mid 80s win team last year before the wheels fell off, and were basically better now than we were then so 90ish is certainly feasible, more if it break right.  My biggest concern though is that 90ish still isnt good enough potentially.

The AL is a beast right now, with 3 100 win teams last year, 3 more in the 90s, and lets not forget the White Sox who have made a major push this off season and will be a factor next.  I don't think the As will be as good, but i seem to say that every year and they keep finding ways to prove me wrong, and i also don't think the Twins win 100 again although they wont fall off completely either.  You're basically going to have about half dozen teams legitimately in the wildcard mix.

Right now, i hate to say it, but i dont think were quite good enough.  BUT, the off season inst over either so thats OK for Dec 27th.  Pending what we do at C, another pitcher, maybe even another bat for RF/1B mix ... thats going to tell the tale.

[Chuck]

Just now, Pancake Bear said:

Probably wants two years. 

Then give it to him. I mean really. 

Who else is out there to be had and we don't really have any C prospects, so...... C'mon Eppler. 

I mean unless of course Eppler is aiming higher for the likes of a McCann or Contreras.

[ettin]

4 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I’m honestly surprised they haven’t signed him yet.  It’s slightly concerning.  It seems like such an obvious move. 

Personally I think they have a trade target in mind. McGuire or Barnhart seem like possible targets, particularly the former. Even Jansen, who is also on the Blue Jays, would be good. As much as Chirinos or Contreras would be interesting for the offense, I really feel they will make defense the priority and all of those names are good defensively and potentially available. McGuire had a nice season with the bat too which is a plus and he has long-term control.

[krAbs]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Adell is definitely a wildcard player. The projection assumes he'll have little to no impact, but if he catches on quickly he could add a win or two over Goodwin.

That said, I don't expect a ton from him in 2020 as there will be a learning curve. He'll probably have somewhere between 200 and 400 plate appearances, and produce 0-2 WAR, depending upon how quickly he adjusts to major league pitching. But we really  need to temper expectations - anything above the Fangraphs projection is a bonus. 

Yeah - I guess my point is that we need to get a little lucky to pass the Rays this year (or we need them to get a little unlucky). It should be close, but I can't help but feel that we will need a player or two to really step up. The kids seem natural for that.

Something else to keep an eye on - they are projecting Ohtani to have a BUSY year. The projections have him doubling his innings pitched from 2018, and having over 100 more plate appearances than he did last year. I realize that he's been injured, but still - they are projecting him to hit in 80% of our games, and start 19 games. Its possible - that's only starting about once per week, but...that's a lot of plate appearances.

[Chuck]

Speaking of Jo Adell, what is the date on the calendar that would be the earliest we could promote him in 2020 in order of gaining another year of control? 

[floplag]

19 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Then give it to him. I mean really. 

Who else is out there to be had and we don't really have any C prospects, so...... C'mon Eppler. 

I mean unless of course Eppler is aiming higher for the likes of a McCann or Contreras.

Yeah this... more likely whatever is holding that up is trade talks (cubs deal perhaps) or something else along those line a lot for than him wanting 2 years. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

17 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Speaking of Jo Adell, what is the date on the calendar that would be the earliest we could promote him in 2020 in order of gaining another year of control? 

April 10.

Of course there will be a new CBA in a couple years, so there’s probably no point in worrying about it. 

[Chuck]

5 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

April 10.

Of course there will be a new CBA in a couple years, so there’s probably no point in worrying about it. 

Awesome. Thank you, @Jeff Fletcher.

In light of the new CBA in a couple years, if Adell absolutely crushes it in ST, do you see the Angels going with him in RF to start the season? 

[Jeff Fletcher]

3 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Awesome. Thank you, @Jeff Fletcher.

In light of the new CBA in a couple years, if Adell absolutely crushes it in ST, do you see the Angels going with him in RF to start the season? 

Yes. 
 

If ever there was a case where the Angels had a free pass at service time manipulation, it was Ohtani. He was awful in spring training and no one would have blinked if they’d started him in the minors. But they didn’t. That leads me to believe that they’d roll with Adell on opening day if they think he’s ready. 

[tdawg87]

49 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Chirinos and Castro are pretty much a wash offensively. As @ettin said in the Catching Primer article thread, Castro is the much better defender and pitch framer. The fact that he bats left to balance out the lineup, I'd go with him and I think he'll be the cheaper of the two as well.

I don't know about "wash" offensively. 

Castro has a 91 OPS+ since coming to Minnesota.

Chirinos has a 120 OPS+, 99 OPS+, and 105 OPS+ the last 3 years, respectively. He's not a significant upgrade, but he's an upgrade.

As for defense, I don't really know where to look for that but Chirinos had 3 DRS in 2019, while Castro had -7. Overall, Castro has been better so take it for what it's worth. Castro is definitely a better pitch framer. 

I'm good with either one, but I think Chirinos is the better hitter.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, krAbs said:

Adell is projected at 224 plate appearances for 0.1 WAR (note, we are projected to get 0.2 WAR out of right field in total), and Cannning is projected at 135 innings pitched for 1.7 WAR. Those two stepping up could be huge. Also, Teheran is interesting. Given his career WAR/IP, if he pitches 179 innings, you would project that he accumulates 1.8 WAR (though only 1.6 WAR if he produces the same rate that he did last year). Lets hope he can continue to confound pitching metrics....

Projections are leaast reliable for RPs and rookies, basically anyone with a small sample size.   Based on Adell's short stays at pretty much every level he's player at he is probably the biggest wild card of any of the Angels projected players. 

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

Then give it to him. I mean really. 

Who else is out there to be had and we don't really have any C prospects, so...... C'mon Eppler. 

I mean unless of course Eppler is aiming higher for the likes of a McCann or Contreras.

I think the opposite is true too. At this point who is giving Castro a two year deal? 

[UndertheHalo]

Also the threads title should be changed to *might* be better then you think.  The Angels are well known for spectacular crash and burns.  A thing very much on the table in the 2020. 

Edited December 27, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

It is more likely, though,  that the rotation is set. I wouldn't say that it necessarily is, but I don't think (or hope) that Eppler is going to send a big package of prospects to trade for another starter. He might bargain hunt.

Taijuan Walker should be cheap as he is just returning from TJ. He throw 1 scoreless inning in the last game of 2019. He had 1 SO and was hitting 94mph on his fastball. I would be happy if we could sign him, as long as we're not getting an Ace.

[Hubs]

This a lightly optimistic but also realist projection. As junky says, other than Max Stassi's optimistic 2.5 WAR based solely on defense, where is the outlandish projection?

If anything they are a little low (0.5-1 WAR light) on most guys.

C...I think Stassi's projection is a little rosy, but lets stick with it.

1B.. I hope they can be a bit better offensively than the projections here, particularly Pujols and LaStella, (and Thaiss) who I think can get to +1 WAR (0.5 more each)  than they show here.

2B...They have Fletcher dropping in say 100 less PA from 3.4 to 1.8, I'd say that he improves a tiny bit, and ends up closer to 2.8, because he won't play as much but still that adds another +1 WAR.

SS...Forecasting a return to form for Simmons, but it's a 3.5 projection whereas he was 5.0 and 5.4 in his two healthy years before, lets add +1.5 WAR.

3B...Rendon has been better than they show here by at least 0.5 WAR...could be as much as 1.5. Still let's tack on +1 more WAR.

LF... Upton's bad year costs him in the projection department, but he was injured all year...he's been a 3 WAR OF or better in 6 of the last 9 years. So even if he returns to form, but not all the way, he's still worth again +1.5 more WAR than they show here.

CF...Trout's 8.8 WAR projection seems in concert for what he's been doing, but again, it's light compared to 2018's 9.8 and 2016's 9.7 so lets...add a +1 WAR.

RF... Who wins the job and plays the most really makes a difference, but Adell could be the biggest difference maker on the team, if he pulls a Juan Soto / Ronald Acuna Jr./ Cody Bellinger ROY impression. He could be worth 3-4.5 WAR because if he hits he plays... Acuna and Soto were brought up later in the year. And even if his playing time is limited by Goodwin and Upton,  Goodwin was worth 1.9 WAR in the same number of AB's as they have him on this projection in 2018. So lets just say they get 3.2 WAR from the duo. That's a big jump up from the 0.2 they project. That still adds 3.0 WAR.

DH... I think this projection of a breakout from Ohtani shows what they can get from the position. I don't think he gets 560 PA so I'm gonna drop it by say 1/6, which lowers it by 0.5, but I think the replacement guys will make up for the 0.5 loss too...so let's leave it alone.

That brings their BAT from 29.7 to a best in the majors 39.7, so even if it's half of what I picked above, then they'd still be at 34.7, or first place.

As for the pitching side, I still think they add one more starter, and go with a true 6 man rotation, to keep everyone in games longer, and Ohtani pitching once a week.

SP... Teheran always outperforms his peripherals. I'd add 1 WAR to this projection. He had 1.6 last year. Bundy, Heaney also are decent projections. Canning I think is a little light innings wise and Ohtani is about 2/3 of the innings they'd actually have him pitch, so lets be optimistic and safe and add 2 WAR. That sets the starters at 13.7.

RP... I think Robles and Middelton will each be better, as will Anderson and Pena. I'd add 2.0 WAR total for all four guys (Robles was 1.4 better than this and Pena was a starter, so...) and a few others they've undersold.. That's an increase to 4.1.

Pitching total is now 17.8, moving them up to 11th.

That's an overall best case scenario, 57.5, which would be a team well over 104-105 wins. Is that possible? Obviously, everything would have to go right, but I see an absolutely loaded team.

 

[tdawg87]

45 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Also the threads title should be changed to *might* be better then you think.  The Angels are well known for spectacular crash and burns.  A thing very much on the table in the 2020.