Thoughts on Betts/Price and Angels

[angelsnationtalk]

Dodgers have been rumored to pursue a trade for Betts if they can't get Lindor. Dodgers probably want to dump Pollock's salary as well.

I know the Angels won't do this, but I wonder if they theoretically could since they have checked in on David Price....(assuming players waive their NTC's)

Swap Betts and Price to the Angels for Upton and a few prospects.
Angels are likely able to spend another $30M before the season and dumping Upton will free another $21M this season adding up to $51M. Betts+Price will add up to around $59.7M this year.

Assuming the Angels find a way to re-sign Betts, would you be willing to part ways with Marsh if Boston asked for him? 

This basically solidifies the outfield with Adell, Trout, Betts and Marsh won't be needed anymore (if they extend Betts immediately). The downfall is they have the risk of not re-signing Betts and have Price's contract to pay. 

Lineup (by end of year): Betts, Trout, Rendon, Ohtani, Adell, Simmons, Stassi, LaStella, Fletcher
Rotation: Price, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, Bundy.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

I mentioned this scenario a few days ago.

Even w betts pending FA, they wont trade him as part of a salary dump. They could do that without including Betts.

And I doubt Betts would sign an extension.... or that we would even offer it.... we cant afford him. Not with pitching still needed.

Still, if we could somehow trade for him, simply to trade him at the deadline for something we need....

 

[Chuck]

I like this idea. 

But get Keuchel like yesterday already.

[ettin]

Just like before Upton has a no trade clause. Also on top of that the Red Sox will want to maximize a return on Betts, not dilute his value by slapping Price on the trade ledger. Third we dont need Betts he is a luxury we cannot afford. 

This is a wildly unlikely scenario.

[Angel Oracle]

Price is almost done, two injury shortened seasons in the past three, and very hittable now.

Honest question, what do some people see in Price?

[Mark68]

Betts isn't signing an extension. The only reason the Red Sox would consider trading him is to get something for him because they know he's walking after next year.

[ispy45]

Upton is not waiving his No trade clause.

[T.G.]

3 minutes ago, ettin said:

Just like before Upton has a no trade clause. Also on top of that the Red Sox will want to maximize a return on Betts, not dilute his value by slapping Price on the trade ledger. Third we dont need Betts he is a luxury we cannot afford. 

This is a wildly unlikely scenario.

[Hubs]

First, Marsh would have to go in the package, almost certainly, and probably more. They may ask for Adell and Marsh, which would be a firm no.

Betts is almost certain to want a Rendon level payday. They go from paying Upton for 3 years at say $72 M to paying Betts $35M Per for 6 plus 1 year at 24M. That's $234M.

Betts is in his late 20's, Marsh is in his early 20's. Marsh may not produce what Betts would, but Betts would also cost probably $199M for the time Marsh would cost at most $50 M over 6 seasons.

So you're paying $150 M more to Betts than you would Marsh. And $24 M more to Price over Betts.

Final Tally (Keep Marsh, Upton, and sign a middle level starter like Dallas Keuchel for three years -- I know he'll ask for more years, I'm just trying to illustrate him vs. Price)

$175 for 12 seasons of play.

Final Tally (Trade Marsh, Upton for Price / Betts)

$295 for 9 seasons of play.

 

Upton should produce at least 6 WAR in his next 3 years, and likely more closer to 9. Betts will produce somewhere between 30 WAR and 55 WAR likely over the next 7 seasons.

Price is likely to give you 7 WAR for the next three years, I'd expect Keuchel to to the same.

So it comes down to Marsh. Is he going to be worth at least 27 WAR in his first 6 seasons? 39-120M/10M per WAR = 27 WAR.

 

Then you have the fact that the Angels would almost certainly be over the cap in years 2020-2022, which would affect things.

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

12 minutes ago, ispy45 said:

Upton is not waiving his No trade clause.

No way Betts will sign without testing Free Agency...

Edited December 17, 2019 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[krAbs]

30 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Price is almost done, two injury shortened seasons in the past three, and very hittable now.

Honest question, what do some people see in Price?

Fangraphs projects Price and Keuchel to have essentially identical WAR next year. I think its less that people see something in Price, and more that we need SOMEONE and all the options suck.

[kevinb]

1 hour ago, ispy45 said:

Upton is not waiving his No trade clause.

Why? Didn’t he have one in Detroit? Why wouldn’t he waive it again?

[failos]

Thoughts on Josh Beckett and Carl Crawford?

[Inside Pitch]

33 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Fangraphs projects Price and Keuchel to have essentially identical WAR next year. I think its less that people see something in Price, and more that we need SOMEONE and all the options suck.

That's partially because the algorithm is looking strictly at aging curves, past performance, games played, and park data.  If they had a way of measuring medical reports and knowing his ulnar tendon is being held together by duct tape and wire, my guess is the projections wouldn't be close.

[robblin17]

I just traded Upton and Marsh for Cole in MLB 2020. Cole must've really hated his first day in NY.

Get it done, Eppler!

Edited December 18, 2019 by robblin17

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, robblin17 said:

I just traded Upton and Marsh for Cole in MLB 2020. Cole must've really hated his first day in NY.

Get it done, Eppler!

Nice going, no who plays LF?

You guys act like making trades is easy, but now robblin has to edit pujols to play the outfield.

[kevinb]

2 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Nice going, no who plays LF?

You guys act like making trades is easy, but now robblin has to edit pujols to play the outfield.

Edit with 99 speed and power as well. Revitalized his career at a new position at 40? Unless we want to make him younger to? My only question is how do teams actually lose games. Put that setting to rookie and go undefeated throughout the year and playoffs Trout hit 200 home runs new MLB record. 

[TroutCron]

Eppler needs to find younger pitching with upside. Keuchel is a must sign. Check with the Rays to see if they would trade Snell. 

[robblin17]

20 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Nice going, no who plays LF?

You guys act like making trades is easy, but now robblin has to edit pujols to play the outfield.

I put Arenado at catcher and Stassi in left. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

20 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

Edit with 99 speed and power as well. Revitalized his career at a new position at 40? Unless we want to make him younger to? 

And sign him to an extension!

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 minutes ago, robblin17 said:

I put Arenado at catcher and Stassi in left. 

I like it. Stassi seems more the type to throw the 3rd out into the stands to the fans, anyway.

[TroutField]

51 minutes ago, TroutCron said:

Eppler needs to find younger pitching with upside. Keuchel is a must sign. Check with the Rays to see if they would trade Snell. 

Snell would cost Adell, Canning, and Marsh. 

[bigd84720]

For the Angels to be considered as serious contenders they need to go all in and thats just not going to happen. Moreno doenst know how to open his wallet and Eppler doesnt know how to build a winning team and has no idea on what great talent looks like, 

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, bigd84720 said:

For the Angels to be considered as serious contenders they need to go all in and thats just not going to happen. Moreno doenst know how to open his wallet and Eppler doesnt know how to build a winning team and has no idea on what great talent looks like, 

twitter called.  they want their post back.  

[rafibomb]

11 minutes ago, bigd84720 said:

For the Angels to be considered as serious contenders they need to go all in and thats just not going to happen. Moreno doenst know how to open his wallet and Eppler doesnt know how to build a winning team and has no idea on what great talent looks like, 

this is the best first post I've seen here in a while