Keuchel

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

Read something yesterday that said Sox are willing to pay down Prices contract to $20 mil / season, so they won't have to include another  player, say like Benitendi.

That would be actually not bad, but what are they expecting in prospects if that's the case?

[Second Base]

I'm fine with Keuchel as the second option. The Angels still need a lot more upside that that to put atop the rotation. But Keuchel is looking like he's going to cost 20 million a year, and for 170 innings and a low 4 ERA, that's a lot of money. 

Eppler is running short on options. He probably should've made that Kluber deal. Probably should've bidded higher for Corbin and Wheeler too.

Not looking good. We'll see.

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I'm fine with Keuchel as the second option. The Angels still need a lot more upside that that to put atop the rotation. But Keuchel is looking like he's going to cost 20 million a year, and for 170 innings and a low 4 ERA, that's a lot of money. 

Eppler is running short on options. He probably should've made that Kluber deal. Probably should've bidded higher for Corbin and Wheeler too.

Not looking good. We'll see.

Selling Keuchel a bit short there.

[ettin]

27 minutes ago, greginpsca said:

Read something yesterday that said Sox are willing to pay down Prices contract to $20 mil / season, so they won't have to include another  player, say like Benitendi.

Makes sense, they can handle including cash, probably.

To be honest though, if Price is projected to say hit 2.6 WAR (his Steamer projection) in 2020, 2.35 WAR in 2021, and 1.85 in 2022 (age-related decline guesses), he would still, even after the Red Sox buying down to $20M per season for 2020-2022, have a pretty deep negative value (something on the order of $20M-$30M in negative value). Bottom line is that the Red Sox will likely either need to eat more salary than that or include a player and/or one or more prospects in a deal I think.

It may just be an immovable contract in many ways. Hard to tell.

 

EDIT: Actually I screwed up my math. Currently under his $96M owed, he has about $25M-$30 in negative value so, buying his contract down by about $36M ($12M per year to the $20M per season you mentioned) is reasonable and we would only have to send 1-2 low-to-mid level prospects to acquire him I think.

Edited December 15, 2019 by ettin

[CanadianHalo]

Price is too risky at 3/60 imo

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

Price is too risky at 3/60 imo

I would compare him to Keuchel at this point. The contracts will be very similar. So who is the better option?

Price has missed a lot of time the last few years due to injury, not to mention he's a few years older. That said, he's still likely to at least match Keuchel in terms of performance. Price has pitched his entire career either in the AL East or in hitters parks. 

Honestly, I think it's a wash. The problem is what we'd have to give up for Price. We don't give up prospects for Keuchel.

 

 

[CanadianHalo]

9 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I would compare him to Keuchel at this point. The contracts will be very similar. So who is the better option?

Price has missed a lot of time the last few years due to injury, not to mention he's a few years older. That said, he's still likely to at least match Keuchel in terms of performance. Price has pitched his entire career either in the AL East or in hitters parks. 

Honestly, I think it's a wash. The problem is what we'd have to give up for Price. We don't give up prospects for Keuchel.

 

 

I’m under the impression we’d have to give up nothing for Price even at 3/60. 

With that said, if it’s a wash which I agree with... give me Keuchel simply due to age and health.

[failos]

35 minutes ago, CanadianHalo said:

Price is too risky at 3/60 imo

Yep. the Price isn't right

[Jason]

Probably going to have to piece together in house options again 

[Angelsjunky]

I don't like Keuchel's  4.72 FIP. He'd probably out-perform that with ERA, but I don't  see him as more than a solid 2-3 WAR pitcher. A good #4, mediocre #3.  

[Angels_Fan]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I don't like Keuchel's  4.72 FIP. He'd probably out-perform that with ERA, but I don't  see him as more than a solid 2-3 WAR pitcher. A good #4, mediocre #3.  

I don’t like how many home runs he gives up for a ground-ball pitcher. 

Even if the Angels signed him, they’d still need to trade for someone better than that (unless they signed Ryu also).

[CanadianHalo]

After seeing what Bumgarner got there’s no chance in hell I’d want the Angels taking on Price for 3/60

[Pancake Bear]

10 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

I don't like Keuchel's  4.72 FIP. He'd probably out-perform that with ERA, but I don't  see him as more than a solid 2-3 WAR pitcher. A good #4, mediocre #3.  

Considering we were running out a bunch of mainly 5+’s last year, I’m okay with that with this offense and defense right now. 

[Stradling]

It also should bring down Keuchel’s cost. 

[Pancake Bear]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

It also should bring down Keuchel’s cost. 

Yeah, I’m really glad Bum didn’t get 20 a year. Keuchel is also older and had similar results last year. But no QO attached. 4 years, 75-80m?

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Selling Keuchel a bit short there.

4.72 FIP last year, ERA in the high 3's. 

Convince me.

[ScottM]

Gio Gonzalez is being overlooked.

Obviously not at the level of Ryu but this is a signing I'm pulling for...

Fangraphs has him at 1/8 or 2/20. I'd love to sign him for something like 2/18. 

"Gio Gonzalez has been a model of consistency — the last time he recorded a FIP- above 100 was 2009, and he’s made 30 or more starts in eight of the 10 seasons since then. At 34, he’s no spring chicken, but he’s adapted to his declining stuff, throwing fewer fastballs and leaning on his delightful, befuddling changeup. The title of “crafty lefty” is handed out too liberally for my tastes, but in this case, it might apply. Gonzalez lost a tick off of his fastball between 2018 and 2019 — and recorded the second-highest swinging strike rate of his career." https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-50-free-agents/

[CanadianHalo]

36 minutes ago, failos said:

Yep. the Price isn't right

I’d take him over Ryu but that’s IT

[tdawg87]

18 minutes ago, Second Base said:

4.72 FIP last year, ERA in the high 3's. 

Convince me.

His FIP in 2018 was 3.69, which is more in line with his career total. Despite this, his K rate was down, and his hit rate was up. And his ERA was exactly the same.

FIP is not the greatest stat. But I'll add that our infield defense is unmatched, so it shouldn't matter.

[AngelsFaninGA]

At this point we need to actually sign someone. Keuchel probably isn't going to put us over the top given how atrocious our pitching is but at least we could be an entertaining 2nd wild card contender with someone like him.

[ScottT]

A 2-3 WAR pitcher might be worth more 3-4 wins in 2020, considering how terrible the rotation was. 

[ScottT]

Cahill: 102 ip, -0.4 WAR

Harvey: 60 ip, -0.7 WAR

Barria: 83 ip, -0.5 WAR

Suarez: 81 ip, -1.2 WAR

Peters: 72 ip, -0.1 WAR

398 innings,  -2.9 WAR.  

[Angels_Fan]

Just now, ScottT said:

Cahill: 102 ip, -0.4 WAR

Harvey: 60 ip, -0.7 WAR

Barria: 83 ip, -0.5 WAR

Suarez: 81 ip, -1.2 WAR

Peters: 72 ip, -0.1 WAR

398 innings,  -2.9 WAR.  

Keuchel would be a big upgrade over that... but a 6-man rotation will limit Keuchel’s innings, though.

I wonder how free agents and potential trade targets even feel about the Angels’ plan for a 6-man rotation? Would they be ok with that? 

[Redondo]

3 minutes ago, ScottT said:

Cahill: 102 ip, -0.4 WAR

Harvey: 60 ip, -0.7 WAR

Barria: 83 ip, -0.5 WAR

Suarez: 81 ip, -1.2 WAR

Peters: 72 ip, -0.1 WAR

398 innings,  -2.9 WAR.  

That's pretty sad looking

[Tank]

46 minutes ago, ScottT said:

Cahill: 102 ip, -0.4 WAR

Harvey: 60 ip, -0.7 WAR

Barria: 83 ip, -0.5 WAR

Suarez: 81 ip, -1.2 WAR

Peters: 72 ip, -0.1 WAR

398 innings,  -2.9 WAR.  

Yep. All the more reason to sign Keuchel.