Cole's Asking Price: Too steep, or too stupid to pass up?

[kevinb]

13 minutes ago, RBM said:

Verlander will turn 37 during spring training. He was 21-6 with a 2.53 ERA, 300 K’s and 223 IP this year. 

That’s not the norm Verlander is a freak. 

[the dude abides]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Please stop this argument.

There's exactly 0 evidence that Houston cheated on the pitching front. And honestly, what would they do that pitchers everywhere else already don't?

I think it would be naive to think they haven’t cheated on the pitching front.

 

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, the dude abides said:

I think it would be naive to think they haven’t cheated on the pitching front.

 

Any more than any other team does?

[the dude abides]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Any more than any other team does?

Given what has been revealed about the organization this offseason, I’d place my bet on “yes”.

 

[Pancake Bear]

8 minutes ago, the dude abides said:

I think it would be naive to think they haven’t cheated on the pitching front.

 

Yep, and Trout clearly does steroids because he’s huge and clearly that’s the only reason he could be good. And who gives a crap about evidence, anyway?

[tdawg87]

2 minutes ago, the dude abides said:

Given what has been revealed about the organization this offseason, I’d place my bet on “yes”.

 

How would they have cheated? What plan would Houston have in place to give their pitchers an edge?

[Erstad Grit]

26 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

Do you really want to give a Pujols-sized contract to a pitcher?

I really want an ace and this is the cost of an ace apparently. I'd also rather pay 10/300 than 7/275. Cole is also younger and hasn't declined yet compared to when we signed Pujols

[Troll Daddy]

It’s sad to see the Angels with their back against the wall. This will end up being a extreme overpaid!

[angelsnationtalk]

Angels payroll is *roughly* $150,400,000M 
AAV is $141,005,666

If the Angels sign Gerrit Cole for 9yr/$324M  then your payroll looks like this:
Payroll (if nothing is backloaded): $186,400,000M
AAV: $177,005,666M

Arte has stated in the past he'd go over the tax for the right player(s). The Angels technically would have another $30,994,334M before they hit the $208M tax. 
 

Don't tell me Cole is to expensive. Ultimately the ball is literally in Arte's and Eppler's hands. 

•  

[Erstad Grit]

28 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Which "two to three" starting pitchers?

The problem with this argument is it assumes that everyone will sign here. So we can just take the contract we'd offer Cole and split it in half or in thirds to get more pitchers. It's literally the Bavasi argument. 

No one is even close to the level of Cole. So you sign "two or three" guys to fill the rotation, and yet you're getting similar overall output. What's the point? 

I'm aware that Cole is only affecting 1 game at a time, but overall, over the course of a full season, are two or three pitchers having a better impact? I don't think so. Not with what's available.

Also he's not just affecting one game at a time. A guy like Cole gives the bullpen a rest. 

[totdprods]

I think at the rate he’s gonna go at, it makes more sense to spread around 2, maybe even three, ‘B’ targets. 

Eppler could still revamp this ballclub with a big trade and a big signing or two - it’d be a hit to the farm, but he can acquire guys with control and give us a fighting shot, hopefully extending his window to continue working on whatever damage he has to make on the farm. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by totdprods

[tdawg87]

Just now, totdprods said:

I think at the rate he’s gonna go at, it makes more sense to spread around 2, maybe even three, ‘B’ targets. 

Explain pls

[Erstad Grit]

1 minute ago, angelsnationtalk said:

Angels payroll is *roughly* $150,400,000M 
AAV is $141,005,666

If the Angels sign Gerrit Cole for 9yr/$324M  then your payroll looks like this:
Payroll (if nothing is backloaded): $186,400,000M
AAV: $177,005,666M

Arte has stated in the past he'd go over the tax for the right player(s). The Angels technically would have another $30,994,334M before they hit the $208M tax. 
 

Don't tell me Cole is to expensive. Ultimately the ball is literally in Arte's and Eppler's hands. 

•  

Honestly I just needed it put so simply. Sign the guy and have 30 million for a catcher, possibly another arm like teheran, and room to make a trade during the season. Next year say goodbye to Cozart and the following year Pujols

[kevinb]

12 minutes ago, RBM said:

Do you think Gerrit Cole has any piece of "the norm" in him?

He's special and not the short school bus kind of special.

Honestly I don't know. But I wouldn't bet that would be the case. How many Verlanders are there pitching like studs well into their let 30's? 

[aznhockeyguy]

49 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Which "two to three" starting pitchers?

The problem with this argument is it assumes that everyone will sign here. So we can just take the contract we'd offer Cole and split it in half or in thirds to get more pitchers. It's literally the Bavasi argument. 

No one is even close to the level of Cole. So you sign "two or three" guys to fill the rotation, and yet you're getting similar overall output. What's the point? 

I'm aware that Cole is only affecting 1 game at a time, but overall, over the course of a full season, are two or three pitchers having a better impact? I don't think so. Not with what's available.

There are other starting pitchers that are better than what we currently have. Ryu, MadBum, Keuchel, Roark, Tehran.  Of course they're not the level of Cole, but I'm pretty sure the Angels if they offer enough can get these players.  

That's exactly my point, Cole is one player.  One injury and you can kiss the improved rotation good bye.  The Angels have so many significant holes in the rotation.  You also expect Cole to continue to produce at the rate he did during the last 2 seasons with the Angels.  That's also a huge risk.  

It depends on what you deem more valuable.  Would you rather have a 1 pitcher to give you an 70-80% chance to win 1 game  and around 40% to win the rest or have 2-3 pitchers give you a 55-65% chance of winning 2-3 games and 40% for the rest.  

[aznhockeyguy]

29 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Also he's not just affecting one game at a time. A guy like Cole gives the bullpen a rest. 

2-3 better starting pitchers can do that too.

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, aznhockeyguy said:

2-3 better starting pitchers can do that too.

Stick to hockey.

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, aznhockeyguy said:

There are other starting pitchers that are better than what we currently have. Ryu, MadBum, Keuchel, Roark, Tehran.  Of course they're not the level of Cole, but I'm pretty sure the Angels if they offer enough can get these players.  

That's exactly my point, Cole is one player.  One injury and you can kiss the improved rotation good bye.  The Angels have so many significant holes in the rotation.  You also expect Cole to continue to produce at the rate he did during the last 2 seasons with the Angels.  That's also a huge risk.  

It depends on what you deem more valuable.  Would you rather have a 1 pitcher to give you an 70-80% chance to win 1 game  and around 40% to win the rest or have 2-3 pitchers give you a 55-65% chance of winning 2-3 games and 40% for the rest.  

That math is absolutely amazing.

[angelsnationtalk]

8 minutes ago, aznhockeyguy said:

There are other starting pitchers that are better than what we currently have. Ryu, MadBum, Keuchel, Roark, Tehran.  Of course they're not the level of Cole, but I'm pretty sure the Angels if they offer enough can get these players.  

That's exactly my point, Cole is one player.  One injury and you can kiss the improved rotation good bye.  The Angels have so many significant holes in the rotation.  You also expect Cole to continue to produce at the rate he did during the last 2 seasons with the Angels.  That's also a huge risk.  

It depends on what you deem more valuable.  Would you rather have a 1 pitcher to give you an 70-80% chance to win 1 game  and around 40% to win the rest or have 2-3 pitchers give you a 55-65% chance of winning 2-3 games and 40% for the rest.  

No, you sign Cole and then sign another strong arm or trade for one. Signing Cole for $36M/yr doesn't handcuff the Angels if Arte is willing to spend. 

[aznhockeyguy]

 

14 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Stick to hockey.

Where am I wrong? If your counter logic is insults perhaps don't post?

14 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

That math is absolutely amazing.

Where am I wrong? You don't think those pitchers I mentioned will be a significant improvement than the pitchers the Angels had?  Houston was 26-7 when he started, which is 78.7% winrate.  Also remember Houston has a better team than the Angels.  So 70-80% is a pretty good estimate.

7 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

No, you sign Cole and then sign another strong arm or trade for one. Signing Cole for $36M/yr doesn't handcuff the Angels if Arte is willing to spend. 

Where did I say this?  I simply said I would not risk paying that type of money to 1 player when there are more than 1 weakness in the rotation.

[angelsnationtalk]

1 minute ago, aznhockeyguy said:

Where did I say this?  I simply said I would not risk paying that type of money to 1 player when there are more than 1 weakness in the rotation.

So were you not happy about what we payed Mike Trout?

[beatlesrule]

He hasn't proven that he's worth that kind of money and commitment. 

[Tyler]

What Strasburg ended up with was the max I'd offer Cole.

 

Sorry, time to look elsewhere. 

[aznhockeyguy]

3 minutes ago, angelsnationtalk said:

So were you not happy about what we payed Mike Trout?

Trout put up MVP caliber seasons every season he's played.  He's also a position player which is much less risky than starting pitchers.  If Cole had that type of track record like Trout, I would have no problem with it, but he doesn't.  Trout is underpaid even with that contract in terms of his peers.  

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, Tyler said:

What Strasburg ended up with was the max I'd offer Cole.

 

Sorry, time to look elsewhere.