Contract Predictions from The Athletic // Jim Bowden

[totdprods]

Paywall - https://theathletic.com/1343614/2019/11/04/bowden-ranking-the-top-35-free-agents-and-predicting-their-contracts-and-best-fits/?source=dailyemail

Here's the predictions, plus anyone in which the Angels are named as a best fit. 

CRAZY money for Cole and Strasburg. The prices he cites for Ryu and Wheeler would be low in my opinion. Castellanos as well, though his fit on an Angel club is tenuous at best. 

1. Gerrit Cole - 8/$288m, $36m AAV - Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants
2. Stephen Strasburg - 7/$238m, $34m AAV - Nationals, Padres
3. Anthony Rendon - 7/$231m, $33m AAV - Nationals, Braves, Dogers, Rangers Mets, White Sox
4. Madison Bumgarner - 4/$84m, $21m AAV - Braves, Phillies, Nationals, Astros, Giants
5. Marcell Ozuna - 5/$92.5m, $18.5m AAV - Cardinals, Braves, Red, Giants, Mariners
6. Zack Wheeler - 4/$74m, $18.5m AAV - Mets, Phillies, Brewers, Twins, Angels
7. Hyun-Jin Ryu - 3/$55.m, $18.5m AAV - Dodgers, Angels, Twins, Brewers
8. Josh Donaldson - 3/$75m, $25m AAV - Braves, Nationals, Rangers
9. Nicholas Castellanos - 4/$64m, $16m AAV - Braves, Cubs, Marlins, Blue Jays, Mariners, Padres, Giants, Angels
10. Yasmani Grandal - 3/$57m, $19m AAV - Brewers, Reds, Astros, Rays
11. Jake Odorizzi - 3/$30m, $10m AAV - Twins, Rangers, Brewers, Blue Jays
12. Cole Hamels - 2/$36m, $18m AAV - Cubs, Phillies, Brewers, Twins, Astros, Angels
13. Dallas Keuchel - 3/$42m, $14m AAV - Braves, Phillies, Brewers, Rangers, Twins, Pirates, Angels
14. Didi Gregorius - 1/$12.5m AAV - Yankees, Reds, Giants, Phillies, Mariners
15. Will Smith - 3/$39m, $13m AAV - Astros, Braves, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels
16. Mike Moustakas - 2/$24m, $12m AAV -  Brewers, Angels, Nationals
17. Yasiel Puig - 4/$48m, $12m AAV - Indians, Mariners, Padres, Marlins, Blue Jays
18. Jose Abreu - 3/$60m, $20m AAV - White Sox, Rangers
19. Edwin Encarnacion - 1/$12m AAV - White Sox, Rangers, Rays
20. Will Harris - 2/$18m, $9m AAV - Astros, Nationals, Phillies, Twins, Angels, Rangers
21. Michael Pineda - 1/$8m AAV - Twins, Brewers, Phillies, Angels, Blue Jays, Padres
22. Adam Wainwright - 1/$10m AAV - Cardinals
23. Kyle Gibson - 2/$18m - $9m AAV - Twins, Brewers, Phillies, Angels, Blue Jays, Padres
24. Rick Porcello - 1/$9m AAV - Pirates, Blue Jays, Brewers, Twins
25. Brett Gardner - 1/$10m AAV - Yankees
26. Avisail Garcia - 2/$17m, $8.5m AAV - Rays, Mariners, Padres
27. Drew Pomeranz - 2/$10m, $5m AAV - Astros, Brewers, Braves, Red Sox
28. Joe Smith - 2/$10m, $5m AAV - Astros, Angels, Phillies, Braves
29. Howie Kendrick - 1/$7m AAV - Nationals, Red Sox, Rockies
30. Robinson Chirinos - 2/$14m, $7m AAV - Astros, Reds
31. Rich Hill - 1/$8m AAV - Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers
32. Eric Sogard - 1/$2m AAV - Rays, Nationals, Indians, Cubs, Athletics, Angels
33. Travis d'Arnaud - 2/$10m, $5m AAV - Rays, Reds
34. Brett Anderson - 1/$4m AAV - Athletics
35. Tanner Roark - 1/$5m AAV - Athletics, Brewers, Twins, Blue Jays

[Blarg]

8 years at $36 mil a year for Cole would be flat out stupid. 

Might as well fill the roster with Wheeler and either Bumgarner or Ryu for the same AAV then have money for Grandell. 

[Claude]

We need Puig.

[Vlad27Trout27]

266 mil...hmm the only way i see it going that high is if the stupid shanks throw out that number, i'm expecting a 7yrs contract at 230 mil. 

[Claude]

6 minutes ago, Blarg said:

8 years at $36 mil a year for Cole would be flat out stupid. 

Might as well fill the roster with Wheeler and either Bumgarner or Ryu for the same AAV then have money for Grandell. 

Bowden is full of sh*t. He probably works for Boras. The only serious buyer for Cole will be the Angels.

[Erstad Grit]

Wheeler and Odorizzi numbers are less than I thought. Cole and hamels more

[Docwaukee]

hey @totdprods

isn't that paid content?

[Claude]

Oh and if we could get lefty hitting Didi Gregorious for 1/12.5M you immediately trade Simmons for a solid middle relief or prospects.

[Vlad27Trout27]

Wheeler is right where i'm assuming him to be.

Stras is no where near the neighbor

Hamel and cole are getting way more 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

9 minutes ago, Blarg said:

8 years at $36 mil a year for Cole would be flat out stupid. 

Might as well fill the roster with Wheeler and either Bumgarner or Ryu for the same AAV then have money for Grandell. 

yeah crazy money, 7 @ $230M is still a lot but l think it may be closer to what he will get.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

hey @totdprods

isn't that paid content?

Yeah, but I only posted the figures and teams, not any of the accompanying text and article with it. You can scrub it if it's too much posted, wasn't sure what the cut-off was, or I can trim down to just the names in bold.

[floplag]

Wow... OK, a few thoughts.  
Wow, 36M to Cole?  Thats pretty rarified air.  Do i pay anyone as much as Trout, no.  Close maybe, but no.  Thats a point where we have to take a step back and say is it worth it.  You could get Wheeler and Bumgardner for that.... or Wheller and Odorizzi with left over for a bat.
We have a total of about 60M at most based on speculation here, 36 to one guy no matter who he is or how good he is when we have more than that one need seems, excessive. 
Do that many people deserve Trout-esque money?  i dont think so, this is getting silly.

[tdawg87]

Ain't nobody paying Strasburg $34 million when he's 37. 

[nate]

I really don't understand how Bowden still has a job, he is never right.

[Stradling]

I was listening to his show last night and was just shaking my head.  The thing he seemed more confident of was that Cole was going to get 8 years, he was speaking to it as if it was fact.  Did you guys know that Eppler worked for the Rockies at one point?  I must have missed that.  I think it was Ryan Spilborghs who does a show with Bowden who was saying that Eppler signed him in his home when he was with the Rockies.  

[T.G.]

Bowden is the worst.  I hate guys who speak with authority when in reality, they don't have a clue.  They think they have the definitive answer for everything and they never let up.  When they're proven wrong - they move on to the next stupid thing.  They have no humility and they just run their mouth non-stop.  Reminds me of someone on AW...

[VariousCrap]

If Cole is going to get anything even close to 8 years and that amount, let someone else pay it.  The Angels need to stay far away from that.

It would be way better for the Angels to sign Wheeler and Odorizzi for the rotation and then look to improve the offense at either 3B or C.

 

 

 

[floplag]

13 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

If Cole is going to get anything even close to 8 years and that amount, let someone else pay it.  The Angels need to stay far away from that.

It would be way better for the Angels to sign Wheeler and Odorizzi for the rotation and then look to improve the offense at either 3B or C.

 

 

 

Yeah, i agree.  If it gets anywhere near that area let someone else go there and take the twofer is possible.

[tdawg87]

I'd still do 8/288. If the Angels signed Cole for 7/252, would you say that's too much? I mean yeah, it's ridiculously expensive but still. The extra year isn't gonna hurt nobody.

I don't think it will get that high, though. 7/230 is my guess.

[UndertheHalo]

250 is the limit for me.  Even that is probably not a great idea. 

[Glen]

28 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

I'd still do 8/288. If the Angels signed Cole for 7/252, would you say that's too much? I mean yeah, it's ridiculously expensive but still. The extra year isn't gonna hurt nobody.

I don't think it will get that high, though. 7/230 is my guess.

Just think how we'd feel right now if we'd signed Pujols to one less year.

[Lou]

2 minutes ago, Glen said:

Just think how we'd feel right now if we'd signed Pujols to one less year.

[Fish Oil]

If Cole/Boras think 8/288 is a realistic goal then he won't sign until very late, by which time we will likely have moved on.

We are too close to contention and our needs are too great to wait until the last moment hoping to overpay for one player.

If we can get Strasburg and Wheeler for the same price as Cole, let's get it done.

Edited November 4, 2019 by Fish Oil

[Second Base]

Ok, let me ask everyone a question here.

Would you rather sign Cole for 8 years and nearly 300 million, or Zack Wheeler and Hyun Jin Ryu for basically the same AAV and half the length of time?

To me, if Bowden is correct on these numbers, the decision to move on from Cole would be an easy one.

[kevinb]

If this is even close to what Cole or Stras are going to get I would pass all day every day. I wouldn't go over 7 years for Cole and I wouldn't go over 3 or 4 years for Stras. Sign a couple of the middle tier guys. That's just crazy money for both Stras and Cole.