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What 2019 Really Is (and why Eppler is taking the right course)


Angelsjunky

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They definitely could have helped themselves getting a better catcher.  Oh well.  It’s not going to work out.  The patience thing has been the deal for a while.  The Angels just have to wait for the farm to start yielding results.(hopefully) 

Patience is tough this time of year. 

Edited by UndertheHalo
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Nicely done AJ.  a great summary.  

I know you know this, but as the waves of prospects graduate from level to level, their overall value increases even if a few guys who we thought could be prospects flame out.  So you start filling out your major league team and you have this high level prospect redundancy that has way more trade value than a high ceiling prospect in rookie ball.  

It how you acquire Garrett Cole for redundant talent that isn't even all that great.  Or how the Cards got Goldy.  Teams will take solid avg to slightly above potential with 5-6 years of control for a guy that has 1-3 years left and is already established.  But you need to maintain the financial flexibility to do that as well.  

It all starts with the farm .  

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I understand the sentiment here but to think the club is trying to win a wildcard spot is to not understand baseball or competitive sports in general. They are trying to win the division. He’s putting together a club that could win the division. They don’t need to be division favorites or the presumptive favorite in the off-season. But to think that they aren’t trying to put together a winning team is to be shortsighted.

Now, that that is out of the way, they don’t have to mortgage the future to compete now. They can say that if a few things break right they can compete. They don’t have to mortgage the future for the present, but they are trying to win now. 

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1 hour ago, Hubs said:

I understand the sentiment here but to think the club is trying to win a wildcard spot is to not understand baseball or competitive sports in general. They are trying to win the division. He’s putting together a club that could win the division. They don’t need to be division favorites or the presumptive favorite in the off-season. But to think that they aren’t trying to put together a winning team is to be shortsighted.

Now, that that is out of the way, they don’t have to mortgage the future to compete now. They can say that if a few things break right they can compete. They don’t have to mortgage the future for the present, but they are trying to win now. 

I think you miss my point. Eppler isn't "trying to win a wildcard spot." He's trying to build a perennial contender--a team that can compete for the division--while adding a few players that will help the team compete for a wildcard in the mean time.

To compete for the division in 2019 would not only be very difficult with how good the Astros are, but would require just too much resources (money and young talent in trades) and would diminish the chances that the team is a perennial 90+ win powerhouse in the 2020s.

The Angels will have a better chance of competing for the division in the 2020s (I'm guessing 2021 is the first year they have a good shot at it) if they protect their young talent and not tie up the payroll with sub-premium players. Or to put it another way, would you rather have:

1) A very good chance at the wildcard and vaguely decent chance at the division in 2019-20, but less of a chance of perennial contention in 2021 and beyond due to diminished farm talent and payroll issues, or

2) A solid chance at the wildcard and snowball's chance at the division in 2019-20, but very good chance of perennial contention in 2021 and beyond?

The first is the "WTF is Eppler doing?" attitude, the latter is what I believe to be the Eppler Plan. And I like it.

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2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

Nicely done AJ.  a great summary.  

I know you know this, but as the waves of prospects graduate from level to level, their overall value increases even if a few guys who we thought could be prospects flame out.  So you start filling out your major league team and you have this high level prospect redundancy that has way more trade value than a high ceiling prospect in rookie ball.  

It how you acquire Garrett Cole for redundant talent that isn't even all that great.  Or how the Cards got Goldy.  Teams will take solid avg to slightly above potential with 5-6 years of control for a guy that has 1-3 years left and is already established.  But you need to maintain the financial flexibility to do that as well.  

It all starts with the farm .  

Yes, exactly. This is what I called "Peak Prospect Value," which most of the Angels' prospects haven't reached yet. You don't trade your prospects until they get there.

For example, even if the Angels don't plan on keeping Brandon Marsh (unless they can move Upton), they don't trade him until he puts together the type of year in A+/AA that we all know he's capable of--and that I think he'll have in 2019. He's got some value now, but has a good chance of being significantly more valuable a year from now. Either you have the good problem of having more talent than you can find room for, or you trade him to fill a position of need (maybe catcher or more pitching).

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2 hours ago, Hubs said:

I understand the sentiment here but to think the club is trying to win a wildcard spot is to not understand baseball or competitive sports in general. They are trying to win the division. He’s putting together a club that could win the division. They don’t need to be division favorites or the presumptive favorite in the off-season. But to think that they aren’t trying to put together a winning team is to be shortsighted.

Now, that that is out of the way, they don’t have to mortgage the future to compete now. They can say that if a few things break right they can compete. They don’t have to mortgage the future for the present, but they are trying to win now. 

They're not trying to win anything in particular. They are trying to win the most games they can in 2019 without sacrificing anything that can help them from 2020 and beyond. 

Simple

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8 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

They're not trying to win anything in particular. They are trying to win the most games they can in 2019 without sacrificing anything that can help them from 2020 and beyond. 

Simple

I assume we’re betting on the fact that this will make Trout want an extension with us when he sees that we’re going to be much better come 2020 and beyond?

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I really like me some Eppy. Really curious to see how this franchise looks in a couple of years. He came into a garbage dump and has done an absolutely fantastic job stacking some chips. I am fine being patient when I see strategy behind things. Eppler is showing strategy. 

That being said, there has to be accountability. If Eppler doesn’t succeed within the next few years, my questions will arise. But right now, I love what he is doing and I do have faith in him.

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I posted pretty much the same thing in one of the threads here although much shorter and I got the Debbie Downer responses.

It's been very clear that he has conceded the division to Houston and that he is working within the budget Arte gave him. If everything goes right, the Angels have a shot at the second wild-card. That's been pretty much discussed to death already though. Next season is shaping up to be pretty much like it was this season. We needed everyone healthy and everyone to have a good year. It didn't happen so all we can do is hope for the best.

It's pretty pathetic when you have the best player in baseball that you just have to hope everyone stays healthy and the rest of his teammates actually play well even with the payroll the angels have. That's the reality though and the Angels will be fun to watch because of certain players they have that's for sure. Arte will get his 3 million fans again.

I'm hoping that Harvey and Cahill pitch well enough to be traded and a team overpays and the Angels farm system gets even better and that gives them an actual shot to win the division in 2020 the last year Trout will be under contract. Hopefully it will be enough to convince him to stay and that Arte actually wants to win a championship.

This team has upside so that's something to look forward to. Yeah, it's a shame that Trout will be wasted another year but just have to hope things are better in 2020.

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1 hour ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I assume we’re betting on the fact that this will make Trout want an extension with us when he sees that we’re going to be much better come 2020 and beyond?

I think they’re just trying to make the franchise as strong and healthy as it can be for the long term. I assume it’s the same thing Mike Trout would want. 

 

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2 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, exactly. This is what I called "Peak Prospect Value," which most of the Angels' prospects haven't reached yet. You don't trade your prospects until they get there.

For example, even if the Angels don't plan on keeping Brandon Marsh (unless they can move Upton), they don't trade him until he puts together the type of year in A+/AA that we all know he's capable of--and that I think he'll have in 2019. He's got some value now, but has a good chance of being significantly more valuable a year from now. Either you have the good problem of having more talent than you can find room for, or you trade him to fill a position of need (maybe catcher or more pitching).

even if he has a decent season he'll be worth more.  Outside of him completely crapping the bed, his value will go up.  I think he'll displace Upton to DH in 2021.  

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14 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

If we suck, then hopefully. 

Not even if we suck honestly. Say Harvey or Cahill pitch well, but our young guns make a major push and are brilliant in AAA... I think it would be difficult not to bring them up, and trade Cahill/Harvey for more prospects, whether we're in contention or not.

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9 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think they’re just trying to make the franchise as strong and healthy as it can be for the long term. I assume it’s the same thing Mike Trout would want. 

 

Hopefully it is. Either way, it has its pros and cons. 

Pros would be that if Eppler’s plan works then we will be a strong team for many consecutive years in the 2020s

Cons is the fact that we still haven’t won a playoff game with Trout during his career and hopefully he still trusts the front office that it will happen and he’ll sign an extension. 

I also think this might be Pujols’ final season. I think it’s a decision Pujols makes. If that’s the case and he decides to retire, is there any way the Angels can defer his contract? Or are they 100% stuck with it going against their payroll? 

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