Theoretical (not likely to happen) question... Machado/Arenado

[Blarg]

9 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think Arenado is a better player. More consistent. Better defensively. Less risky. 

Machado had a .780 OPS just last year. 

I also like the idea of having a one-year look at how he performs in your ballpark before paying $300 million

Well, if he tanks then we can sign him for cheap. Then we get the rebound effect and it's a win!

[Pancake Bear]

Machado. Arenado's Coors batting splits scare me. Not that he's a bad player away from Coors, he just isn't quite the same player. Having said that, Arenado is better defensively and might come as a cheaper FA contract.

[Lou]

Road OPS:

Arenado -  .792

Machado - .796

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

It isn’t a wasted year if we upgrade elsewhere.  

Agree.  But then where?

3rd base is as good a place to upgrade as I can think of.

[GrittyVeterans]

I offer Machado 8/270 with an opt out after year 3 and see if he takes it. Angels need to be in win now mode starting next April. Not wait until 2020 and beyond

[tdawg87]

14 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Agree.  But then where?

3rd base is as good a place to upgrade as I can think of.

You don't think uhhh we could uhhhh use an upgrade or two on the uhhh pitching end of the uhh spectrum?

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

You don't think uhhh we could uhhhh use an upgrade or two on the uhhh pitching end of the uhh spectrum?

Duh.  The conversation, I believe, was about offense?

[Dtwncbad]

12 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think Arenado is a better player. More consistent. Better defensively. Less risky. 

Machado had a .780 OPS just last year. 

I also like the idea of having a one-year look at how he performs in your ballpark before paying $300 million

Respectfully, saying Arenado is less risky than Machado is a weird point.  Yes, Arenado is one of the most consistent players in baseball and acknowledging that is fine.  But realistically Manny Machado is probably among the least "risky" players in baseball.

You cite Machado having a .782 OPS last year as evidence of risk?

That would have made Machado the second best hitter on the Angels last year behind Trout.

2017 looks like an outlier and is probably his floor.

When a guy is 26 years old, will have had better than 6 WAR production in 3 of the last 4 seasons, with the exception still being at a level that still would have made him the 2nd best hitter on the Angels (2017 stats). . .

I think calling Arenado "less risky" kind of silly.

Any player has some risk.  Machado is among the very highest tier of having very, very little risk.

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You cite Machado having a .782 OPS last year as evidence of risk?

 

If he’s expecting to get a $300 million deal it is. 

And that’s a 782 OPS when he’s 24 and playing in a great hitters park. How do you think he’ll do when he’s 30 in Angel Stadium?

Obviously I’m not bashing Machado or saying he sucks. The question was who would you rather have. 

I’d rather have a guy who never has had a bad year, who would be playing his preferred and natural position (and is arguably the best in the sport at it), and who I’m not guaranteeing 300 million bucks. 

 

[floplag]

11 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

I offer Machado 8/270 with an opt out after year 3 and see if he takes it. Angels need to be in win now mode starting next April. Not wait until 2020 and beyond

This please, so much this.
  The "You cant trade Trout" club better get behind this, you cant have it both ways on this one we either win and keep him or lose and likely not, time to pick a side. 

[Adam]

Get that fatty from KC and upgrade elsewhere. They need to keep growing the farm

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If he’s expecting to get a $300 million deal it is. 

And that’s a 782 OPS when he’s 24 and playing in a great hitters park. How do you think he’ll do when he’s 30 in Angel Stadium?

Obviously I’m not bashing Machado or saying he sucks. The question was who would you rather have. 

I’d rather have a guy who never has had a bad year, who would be playing his preferred and natural position (and is arguably the best in the sport at it), and who I’m not guaranteeing 300 million bucks. 

 

Im fully in this boat as well, if i had a choice, I would easily pick Arenado and its not close. 
I'd gladly pay a couple prospects considering they wont be top tier for a guy with a year left to get one of the best 3B in the game at a very reasonable cost who would be very open to staying.  
Having that extra 15 mil elsewhere will be a huge issue for us filling other holes. 

[Dtwncbad]

57 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

If he’s expecting to get a $300 million deal it is. 

And that’s a 782 OPS when he’s 24 and playing in a great hitters park. How do you think he’ll do when he’s 30 in Angel Stadium?

Obviously I’m not bashing Machado or saying he sucks. The question was who would you rather have. 

I’d rather have a guy who never has had a bad year, who would be playing his preferred and natural position (and is arguably the best in the sport at it), and who I’m not guaranteeing 300 million bucks. 

 

Jeff this is silly.

What percentage of free agents are typically more risky than Machado?

98%?

We are talking about production here.

I am fine with saying Arenado is more consistent and I have no issue with anyone liking Arenado more than Machado.

But bringing up risk between the two is nonsense.

If you want to bring up Macahdo's anticipated salary as risk, I get that.  Except rationally he will get that monster money because of how much upside you have in landing a 26 year old.

And Arenado won't get paid?  No risk there?

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

Jeff this is silly.

What percentage of free agents are typically more risky than Machado?

98%?

We are talking about production here.

I am fine with saying Arenado is more consistent and I have no issue with anyone liking Arenado more than Machado.

But bringing up risk between the two is nonsense.

If you want to bring up Macahdo's anticipated salary as risk, I get that.  Except rationally he will get that monster money because of how much upside you have in landing a 26 year old.

And Arenado won't get paid?  No risk there?

 

Wasn’t the question...

trade for 1 year of Arenado vs sign FA Machado?

I was answering that question. 

[UndertheHalo]

It’s hard for me to accept an argument where trading for Arenado is ideal vs. signing Machado.  Machado gives the team certainty for the forseeae future and does not impact the farm system.  Last year aside, he’s an excellent young player.  I’d be thrilled to have him on the Angels. 

Arenado will cost multiple of our best prospects and there’s no guarantee that we’d be able to sign him.  If the hypothetical world existed where the Angels got their choice of a trade for Arenado or a FA signing of Machado and it was entirely up to them.  Getting Machado it seems obvious to me is the safer and correct bet.  

Also, the idea that Arenado will cost half whatever Machado signs for is ridiculous.  Arenado is going to get a similar deal.  He’s arguably the best player in the NL. 

Edited September 17, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[HaloMilliVanilli]

Well, I'm not trading the farm for a guy that I'll watch for a season to gauge how well he does for me but not resign.  Arenado will cost you the same money + lots of of our best prospects.  If Machado is fine playing 3rd, I'd sign him.  Then I can spin those same prospects it would've taken to get Arenado and trade for something else (likely pitching).

[Dtwncbad]

4 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Wasn’t the question...

trade for 1 year of Arenado vs sign FA Machado?

I was answering that question. 

You presented Arenado as less risk.  The difference is so miniscule the comment at best isn't worth mentioning unless it was to underscore a positive for both players being low risk.

[Mark68]

18 hours ago, Tank said:

of course! it gets cold in colorado.

Ha!

At times. But it's been 90+ for over a week now with a couple more of those to come (average high 79).

That means this winter's gonna suuuuuuuuuuckkkkk...

[Troll Daddy]

Sign Donaldson to a short term deal 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

You presented Arenado as less risk.  The difference is so miniscule the comment at best isn't worth mentioning unless it was to underscore a positive for both players being low risk.

I think the key is risk versus reward, and perhaps the overall big picture of the franchise. 
Getting Arenado wouldnt cost a ton of top prospects, would cost half as much as signing Machado, buys us at least one year with Ward development.  It isnt just about risk of player versus player.  

[UndertheHalo]

Just now, floplag said:

I think the key is risk versus reward, and perhaps the overall big picture of the franchise. 
Getting Arenado wouldnt cost a ton of top prospects, would cost half as much as signing Machado, buys us at least one year with Ward development.  It isnt just about risk of player versus player.  

You’re way off in the assesment that he’ll cost half.  There’s no way man.  Arenado is going to get a monster deal. 

[UndertheHalo]

2 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Sign Donaldson to a short term deal 

Doing work today eh.  My god. 

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, floplag said:

I think the key is risk versus reward, and perhaps the overall big picture of the franchise. 
Getting Arenado wouldnt cost a ton of top prospects, would cost half as much as signing Machado, buys us at least one year with Ward development.  It isnt just about risk of player versus player.  

Smo.  King.  Crack.

[floplag]

2 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Sign Donaldson to a short term deal 

what makes you think he would accept a short term deal at this point? 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, UndertheHalo said:

You’re way off in the assesment that he’ll cost half.  There’s no way man.  Arenado is going to get a monster deal. 

not for next year he wont, he has a year left on his deal at half of what machado will get.  
After that i expect they will be comparable, but thats a year off and possibly by then maybe albert realizes its time