What If

[Lou]

13 minutes ago, 101halo said:

Example:  Even if Mariners win only 45% of their remaining games and go 27-32, they'd finish with 88 wins.  Angels would have to win ~63% of their remaining 57 games, going 36

we're 4-2 in our last 6 games (.667)

it's a lock!

[failos]

26 minutes ago, 101halo said:

	Win % Angels Need to Pass
Win%	0.400	0.425	0.450	0.475	0.500	0.525	0.550	0.575
Mariners	85	86	88	89	91	92	93	95
Angels	0.579	0.596	0.632	0.649	0.684	0.702	0.719	0.754

The top row is rest of year winning % scenarios for Seattle. Second row is how many wins Mariners would finish with.  Finally, for each scenario, what % of games Angels would need to win to pass them rest of year.  

Example:  Even if Mariners win only 45% of their remaining games and go 27-32, they'd finish with 88 wins.  Angels would have to win ~63% of their remaining 57 games, going 36-21 to pass.  

It's a tall order.

I think it’s possible, predictions and stats be damned.

[nando714]

1 hour ago, failos said:

This team can be better than Oakland and Seattle has proven to be streaky as hell.

The Angels just need a winning streak and they’ll catch up no problem.

They win 10 in a row then lose 7 in a row 

[tdawg87]

1 minute ago, nando714 said:

They win 10 in a row then lose 7 in a row 

Pretty much. Though they won't get to 10 wins. Maybe 7. Then lose 6.

[BackUpTheTruck]

Outside of the 6 remaining games vs. Seattle and 9 vs. Oakland, my best case scenario for the Angels for the rest of the year is 32-10.

That would put us at 85-62.

If we went 4-2 vs. Seattle and 6-3 vs. Oakland that would put us at 95-67. I don't think that would be enough though. If we went 5-1/7-2 SEA/OAK we would be 97-65.

Seattle plays Houston 13 more times, and play Oakland 10 more times.

We're done with the Dodgers and the Yankees, and SEA and OAK plays them 6 and 5 more times, respectively.

I would still sell at the trade deadline though.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

1 hour ago, UndertheHalo said:

The Angels current position in the standing is not a function of “shit happens” it’s a function of not being very good. Which is why they split with the White Sox.  It’s been a constant theme the entire season.  You know this. 

If we have some wild surge and they catch up; great.  But mostly, what’s best for the Angels is that they get themselves into as good a draft position as possible.  That means losing.  Getting close to the wild card and missing it is probably the worst thing that could happen for the organization going forward. 

So regardless of what is best for the Angels, do you really believe they will sandbag the rest of the season or play to win every game? I have a feeling they will play to win every game regardless of the possible draft position.

PS: I have no delusion we will make the playoffs FYI.

Edited July 28, 2018 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[tdawg87]

Angelswin trying to figure out how the Angels can make the playoffs:

[Docwaukee]

[UndertheHalo]

11 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

So regardless of what is best for the Angels, do you really believe they will sandbag the rest of the season or play to win every game? I have a feeling they will play to win every game regardless of the possible draft position.

PS: I have no delusion we will make the playoffs FYI.

I know they won’t sandbag because that’s not what the Angels do.  It’s just not on the table for Arte Moreno.  Which is cool and fun, but also a detriment.  Other teams don’t do this, so the Angels get screwed. 

Theres obviously a limit to this, I’m of course not suggesting a tear down.  But they could do things to make the team less competitive.  And that would be OK. 

When we don’t make the playoffs we need premium picks.  These picks either have the best odds of being above average everyday players for the Angels or they provide the critical prospect currency that enables the ability to trade for good players that we need.  We need as many high upside players as possible in the organization.  And players that are recognized as such.

Edited July 28, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Docwaukee]

[fan_since79]

Things that need to happen for us to enter mid-September with a very small deficit in the wild card race:

1. Calhoun needs to continue to transform himself into Babe Ruth.

2. Trout needs to continue blasting out of his slump and just be Trout for two more months.

3. Upton needs to hit with RISP.

4. Albert needs to imagine he's 30 rather than 41.

5. Kinsler needs to imagine it's 2016 all over again.

6. Heaney needs to continue to mystify hitters.

7. Barria needs to think of himself as a seasoned veteran rather than a 22-year old rookie. He's got good stuff, and confidence.

8. The bullpen needs to be very carefully managed to get us to the finish line intact.

9. Fletcher needs to play every single day.

10. Simmons just needs to be Simmons and NOT hit in the 2-spot.

11. Scioscia needs to pull out all the stops and manage games like it's the postseason.

12. Eppler needs to work a little magic before Tuesday afternoon.

 

Edited July 28, 2018 by fan_since79

[tdawg87]

4 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

Things that need to happen for us to enter mid-September with a very small deficit in the wild card race:

1. Calhoun needs to continue to transform himself into Babe Ruth.

2. Trout needs to continue blasting out of his slump and just be Trout for two more months.

3. Upton needs to hit with RISP.

4. Albert needs to imagine he's 30 rather than 41.

4. Kinsler needs to imagine it's 2016 all over again.

5. Heaney needs to continue to mystify hitters.

6. Barria needs to think of himself as a seasoned veteran rather than a 22-year old rookie. He's got good stuff, and confidence.

7. The bullpen needs to be very carefully managed to get us to the finish line intact.

8. Fletcher needs to play every single day.

9. Simmons just needs to be Simmons and NOT hit in the 2-spot.

10. Scioscia needs to pull out all the stops and manage games like it's the postseason.

11. Eppler needs to work a little magic before Tuesday afternoon.

 

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, 101halo said:

To me that's the toughest part. If it was a single opponent, we could get hot and they could go into a major tailspin. This far back you probably need both. So now we need to get and stay hot and hope BOTH Seattle and Oakland collapse. 

Dont we play both a few more times?

[101halo]

12 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Dont we play both a few more times?

Yes. Enough to force them both into losing records ROS? No. We need help, and we need Angels to go on an absolute tear. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

2 hours ago, Dick B Back said:

Just a slob like one of us?

Just a stranger on the bus?

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

Why does everyone write equations on windows?

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Why does everyone write equations on windows?

It's less of a pane to fix a mistake.

[eaterfan]

48 minutes ago, stormngt said:

Dont we play both a few more times?

They also play each other 10 more times. So that's 10 wins we have to make up. It's why it's so hard to chase down 2 teams. Best case for us is that they go 5-5 in those games or maybe Oakland goes 6-4. But if a team runs away with the rest of their season series it becomes nearly impossible to catch that team.

[Troll Daddy]

I’ll go out on a limb here ... Angels hold off trading Kinsler if the Angels sweep Seattle. It’s also possible they make a long term move to improve their chances. 

 

[stormngt]

1 minute ago, eaterfan said:

They also play each other 10 more times. So that's 10 wins we have to make up. It's why it's so hard to chase down 2 teams. Best case for us is that they go 5-5 in those games or maybe Oakland goes 6-4. But if a team runs away with the rest of their season series it becomes nearly impossible to catch that team.

How about we just dominate them when we play them?

[eaterfan]

Just now, stormngt said:

How about we just dominate them when we play them?

How about we just win every game for the rest of the season and they lose every game except when they play each other? It could happen, right?

[Second Base]

I get that the Angels aren't going to the playoffs this year, but if we could somehow absolutely crush the Mariners chances, that would be amazing. 

#ScrewYouDipoto

[101halo]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Why does everyone write equations on windows?

Windows are made of glass. Glass is cleaned by Windex. Windex owned by SC Johnson & Son. 

Follow the money, sheeples. It's all a vast conspiracy to corner the glass cleanliness market worth billions. 

[101halo]

23 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I get that the Angels aren't going to the playoffs this year, but if we could somehow absolutely crush the Mariners chances, that would be amazing. 

#ScrewYouDipoto

I've been thinking exactly the same, but a little less about Dipoto and more that it would just be funny to see their playoff drought extend another 20 years. 

[Farmbuildingfan]

3 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

The Angels current position in the standing is not a function of “shit happens” it’s a function of not being very good. Which is why they split with the White Sox.  It’s been a constant theme the entire season.  You know this. 

If we have some wild surge and they catch up; great.  But mostly, what’s best for the Angels is that they get themselves into as good a draft position as possible.  That means losing.  Getting close to the wild card and missing it is probably the worst thing that could happen for the organization going forward. 

Even considering the lack of wisdom in putting together this ML roster, the Angels would have won 5-10 more games this year if they merely had average luck pertaining to injuries.