Nats trade for Herrera

[totdprods]

Herrera with the Royals: 25.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 3 ER, 2 walks

Herrera with the Nats: 7.2 IP, 4.70 ERA, 4 ER, 3 walks

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Herrera with the Royals: 25.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 3 ER, 2 walks

Herrera with the Nats: 7.2 IP, 4.70 ERA, 4 ER, 3 walks

Probably should have traded Ward and Thiass for him.  Oh well, what’s done is done.

[Stradling]

Nats will decide by the end of the weekend if they are going to be sellers or not and Herrera would be traded if they decide to be sellers.  He has a FIP of 5.8 and a WHIP of 1.46.  In other words he has been worse than anyone in our pen with the exception of Parades, Akeel Morris and the like.  My guess is, and I could be wrong, they will get less than they gave up because they bought high and are selling low.  Then again the market for arms is pretty good, so they could be all right.  

When I see this and what happened with some of the expensive pens that were put together this year that have underperformed I really have no idea what I would do if I was a GM.  I actually think trading for the guy that is performing this season is the right thing to do, if your team is that piece away.  Let’s hope we start to see the team develop pitching the way it looks like they are developing outfielders and infielders.  

[Turd Ferguson]

14 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Nats will decide by the end of the weekend if they are going to be sellers or not and Herrera would be traded if they decide to be sellers.  He has a FIP of 5.8 and a WHIP of 1.46.  In other words he has been worse than anyone in our pen with the exception of Parades, Akeel Morris and the like.  My guess is, and I could be wrong, they will get less than they gave up because they bought high and are selling low.  Then again the market for arms is pretty good, so they could be all right.  

When I see this and what happened with some of the expensive pens that were put together this year that have underperformed I really have no idea what I would do if I was a GM.  I actually think trading for the guy that is performing this season is the right thing to do, if your team is that piece away.  Let’s hope we start to see the team develop pitching the way it looks like they are developing outfielders and infielders.  

This is exactly why I don't necessarily blame Eppler for the pen. Relief pitchers, more than anyone, are mercurial and unpredictable. Look at the disaster that Holland has been with the Cards, who are releasing him today. They forfeited a 1st rd pick to sign him. That's also why I think we are seeing young, controllable RP fetching so much on the trade market.  

 

[Angel Oracle]

Hoping a couple of those rounds 3-13 college pitchers can become solid relief pitchers.

[totdprods]

Basically it sounds like the best way to build a pen, barring a surplus of pitching/relief prospects, is to literally throw shit on the wall until it sticks.

I really don’t think there’s much Eppler coulda/woulda/shoulda done differently. In fact it looks like it’s already starting to have worked considering we have 4-6 guys who are possibly are best deadline sells and most have trended positively lately.

[floplag]

29 minutes ago, Turd Ferguson said:

This is exactly why I don't necessarily blame Eppler for the pen. Relief pitchers, more than anyone, are mercurial and unpredictable. Look at the disaster that Holland has been with the Cards, who are releasing him today. They forfeited a 1st rd pick to sign him. That's also why I think we are seeing young, controllable RP fetching so much on the trade market.  

 

While i agree with the sentiment, i don't agree with the entirety of this.  It comes down to effort.  I would not be as vocal as i am about this had we made an effort and they hadn't worked out, but that effort wasn't made.  Dumpster diving for cast offs and the ever popular clean peanut isn't what i consider effort.  

It also comes down to roster, and none of our SP are all that durable or what you would consider innings eaters.  Unlike some teams that have guys that do many more innings, we arent.  We have to build a quality back end of the pen to shorten games, as the starters are going to shorten them for us either way.  

Hindsight is always 20/20, Its easy now to sit back and say most of these high dollar relievers didn't work out this year, and it would be correct, but at the time they certainly weren't considered bad signings. 

[Lou]

the problem with questioning effort is that we have absolutely no idea how much of it was actually made.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

While i agree with the sentiment, i don't agree with the entirety of this.  It comes down to effort.  I would not be as vocal as i am about this had we made an effort and they hadn't worked out, but that effort wasn't made.  Dumpster diving for cast offs and the ever popular clean peanut isn't what i consider effort.  

It also comes down to roster, and none of our SP are all that durable or what you would consider innings eaters.  Unlike some teams that have guys that do many more innings, we arent.  We have to build a quality back end of the pen to shorten games, as the starters are going to shorten them for us either way.  

Hindsight is always 20/20, Its easy now to sit back and say most of these high dollar relievers didn't work out this year, and it would be correct, but at the time they certainly weren't considered bad signings. 

So the only effort that counts in your eyes is sacrificing organizational currency.... regardless of the risk or long term costs...  Gotcha.

Meanwhile the GM is seemingly thinking long term.... It's almost like he was paying attention while the Yankees remade themselves into a super team while the Angels simultaneously made vain efforts to contend and pissed away their future in the process.   This too can be looked at as hindsight or for those looking to learn from it.....history.

The Wells, Grienke, Freese, trades all showed effort.   The Wilson, Pujols, Hamilton deals all showed effort.  All of those deals came with a price that set the franchise back for years but at least they were trying right?

Like everyone else who is a fan of this team I want to see them try...... but I'm glad the front office is concerned with more than looking like they are trying.  Sometimes building a winner requires restraint.  Sometimes restraint takes legit effort.  

Hopefully it will all prove to be 20/20.

Edited July 27, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

the problem with questioning effort is that we have absolutely no idea how much of it was actually made.

In this case, with the added benefit of hindsight .... It's a lot easier to question the benefit of trades actually made.

[Angel Oracle]

Robles and Anderson are intriguing, although both had a rough outing in the Crappy Sux series after a string of really good appearances.

Parker and Cole each has multiple options remaining.   I'm now leaning towards wanting the Halos to at least keep those four beyond this season. 

[mulwin444]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

While i agree with the sentiment, i don't agree with the entirety of this.  It comes down to effort.  I would not be as vocal as i am about this had we made an effort and they hadn't worked out, but that effort wasn't made.  Dumpster diving for cast offs and the ever popular clean peanut isn't what i consider effort.  

I kind of disagree with this though.  Eppler knows, just like we do, the volatility of reliever performance.  We've seen it ourselves with Fernando Rodney, Kevin Gregg, Kevin Jepsen, Brian Fuentes, Justin Speier, Ernesto Frieri, Jordan Walden, Dane De La Rosa, Michael Kohn, Joe Smith, Mike Morin, Fernando Salas, Cory Rasmus, Trevor Gott, Cam Bedrosian, Huston Street, Bud Norris, Blake Parker, etc

All these guys flashed brief promise of steady dominance but due to either injury, inconsistency or mediocrity, never put it together.

What's the common thread?

Essentially that there is a big divide between the great (Kimbrel, Jansen, Chapman) and the merely good from one year to the next.

Through "dumpster diving", Eppler has found:

2016 - Deolis Guerra - 3.21 ERA 1.106 WHIP 126 ERA+  in 53.1 IP as a Rule 5 draftee

           JC Ramirez - 4.04 ERA 72 G 26 GS 1.333 WHIP 104 ERA in 200.1 IP after being selected off waivers

            AJ Achter - 3.11 ERA 1.460 WHIP 130 ERA+ in 37.2 IP after being selected off waivers

2017 - Blake Parker - 2.90 ERA 0.994 WHIP 145 ERA+ in 114.2 IP  after being selected off waivers

            David Hernandez - 2.23 ERA 1.018 WHIP 192 ERA+ in 36.1 IP after being traded to the Angels for PTBN/Cash.  Later traded to the DBacks for Luis Madero, currently                      sporting a 2.70 ERA 1.250 WHIP in 4 starts at A+ Inland Empire at age 21

            Blake Wood - 3.77 ERA 1.360 WHIP 114 ERA+ in 28.2 IP (prior to injury) after being selected off waivers

            Noe Ramirez - 4.29 ERA 1.246 WHIP 97 ERA+ in 65 IP after being selected off waivers

2018 - Felix Pena - 3.34 ERA 1.299 WHIP 124 ERA+, currently our 5 starter, obtained in a trade with the Cubs for a PTBN

            Hansel Robles - 2.77 ERA 1.308 WHIP 152 ERA in 13 IP after being selected off waivers

            Taylor Cole - 2.25 ERA 0.917 WHIP 187 ERA+ in 12 IP after being signed as a minor league free agent

            Deck McGuire - 5.94 ERA 1.560 WHIP 70 ERA+ in 16.2 IP while being used a spot starter after being purchased from the Rangers

Those are a lot of arms at little to no cost that gives the team the flexibility of covering innings effectively without committing big money for merely "good" as a reliever.  

[Angel Oracle]

Agree with Mulwin, but the tough part seemingly is finding a solid closer via that method.  

[mulwin444]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Agree with Mulwin, but the tough part seemingly is finding a solid closer via that method.  

How many solid closers are there in general, though?

Top tier (Dominant over multiple seasons) are:

 - Kimbrel, Chapman, Jansen

Next tier (Effective over multiple seasons) are:

 - Hand, Allen, Herrera, Diaz, Doolittle, Familia, Iglesias, Davis

The "Alright" (Effective now and then):

 - Rodney, Soria, Rondon, Parker, Knebel, Vazquez, Norris

Too New to Rate:

 - Greene, Treinen, Kela, Dominguez, Barraclough, Morrow, Boxberger, Strickland

There are 30 teams so the ratios of dominant closers to teams is a sweet 10%...add in the Next tier and you have 33% of the teams out there covered by dominant to effective closers who have been successful over multiple seasons.

Fact is, it's hard finding a solid closer in general via any method

[Inside Pitch]

38 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Agree with Mulwin, but the tough part seemingly is finding a solid closer via that method.  

We have to build up our inventory of failed/converted starters in hopes of finding some shut down types and possibly producing our own closer..   Despite Eppler's tendency to mine for RPs  from readily available sources, It wouldn't really shock me to see them make an effort to sign a FA closer so long as they believe they have enough pieces to fit in front of one.

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Inside Pitch said:

So the only effort that counts in your eyes is sacrificing organizational currency.... regardless of the risk or long term costs...  Gotcha.

Meanwhile the GM is seemingly thinking long term.... It's almost like he was paying attention while the Yankees remade themselves into a super team while the Angels simultaneously made vain efforts to contend and pissed away their future in the process.   This too can be looked at as hindsight or for those looking to learn from it.....history.

The Wells, Grienke, Freese, trades all showed effort.   The Wilson, Pujols, Hamilton deals all showed effort.  All of those deals came with a price that set the franchise back for years but at least they were trying right?

Like everyone else who is a fan of this team I want to see them try...... but I'm glad the front office is concerned with more than looking like they are trying.  Sometimes building a winner requires restraint.  Sometimes restraint takes legit effort.  

Hopefully it will all prove to be 20/20.

Not what i said at all.  what i said was something more than dumpster diving.  Pretty sure there are about 100 degrees between those 2 things. 

[floplag]

1 hour ago, mulwin444 said:

I kind of disagree with this though.  Eppler knows, just like we do, the volatility of reliever performance.  We've seen it ourselves with Fernando Rodney, Kevin Gregg, Kevin Jepsen, Brian Fuentes, Justin Speier, Ernesto Frieri, Jordan Walden, Dane De La Rosa, Michael Kohn, Joe Smith, Mike Morin, Fernando Salas, Cory Rasmus, Trevor Gott, Cam Bedrosian, Huston Street, Bud Norris, Blake Parker, etc

All these guys flashed brief promise of steady dominance but due to either injury, inconsistency or mediocrity, never put it together.

What's the common thread?

Essentially that there is a big divide between the great (Kimbrel, Jansen, Chapman) and the merely good from one year to the next.

Through "dumpster diving", Eppler has found:

2016 - Deolis Guerra - 3.21 ERA 1.106 WHIP 126 ERA+  in 53.1 IP as a Rule 5 draftee

           JC Ramirez - 4.04 ERA 72 G 26 GS 1.333 WHIP 104 ERA in 200.1 IP after being selected off waivers

            AJ Achter - 3.11 ERA 1.460 WHIP 130 ERA+ in 37.2 IP after being selected off waivers

2017 - Blake Parker - 2.90 ERA 0.994 WHIP 145 ERA+ in 114.2 IP  after being selected off waivers

            David Hernandez - 2.23 ERA 1.018 WHIP 192 ERA+ in 36.1 IP after being traded to the Angels for PTBN/Cash.  Later traded to the DBacks for Luis Madero, currently                      sporting a 2.70 ERA 1.250 WHIP in 4 starts at A+ Inland Empire at age 21

            Blake Wood - 3.77 ERA 1.360 WHIP 114 ERA+ in 28.2 IP (prior to injury) after being selected off waivers

            Noe Ramirez - 4.29 ERA 1.246 WHIP 97 ERA+ in 65 IP after being selected off waivers

2018 - Felix Pena - 3.34 ERA 1.299 WHIP 124 ERA+, currently our 5 starter, obtained in a trade with the Cubs for a PTBN

            Hansel Robles - 2.77 ERA 1.308 WHIP 152 ERA in 13 IP after being selected off waivers

            Taylor Cole - 2.25 ERA 0.917 WHIP 187 ERA+ in 12 IP after being signed as a minor league free agent

            Deck McGuire - 5.94 ERA 1.560 WHIP 70 ERA+ in 16.2 IP while being used a spot starter after being purchased from the Rangers

Those are a lot of arms at little to no cost that gives the team the flexibility of covering innings effectively without committing big money for merely "good" as a reliever.  

Yes, they all had flashes, but why is that the target over someone with a more consistent track record?  
Look i would be fine with this if these were  the supplemental guys, were not going to have a back end of 5 or 6 closer types, i get that, but when the whole bullpen is that, its problematic.  There needs to be an anchor.  

[mulwin444]

6 minutes ago, floplag said:

Yes, they all had flashes, but why is that the target over someone with a more consistent track record?  
Look i would be fine with this if these were  the supplemental guys, were not going to have a back end of 5 or 6 closer types, i get that, but when the whole bullpen is that, its problematic.  There needs to be an anchor.  

As I showed in the other post in this thread, those "anchors" are not a dime a dozen.  10 out of 30 teams have closers that you can relatively depend on year in and year out.  What if we went after an anchor like Wade Davis at $13+ mil per year?  Or Greg Holland?  Teams are littered with the remains of previously failed closers and set-up men who shown bright for one or two seasons and faded into obscurity. 

[Inside Pitch]

7 minutes ago, floplag said:

Not what i said at all.  what i said was something more than dumpster diving.  Pretty sure there are about 100 degrees between those 2 things. 

Mulwin listed all the players acquired via what you seemingly term as dumpster diving.   Look you can hide behind word play all day but you are basically saying you want them to try how YOU want or it's not enough.  Other people see it differently and view the team finding those guys he listed as trying.

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Yes, they all had flashes, but why is that the target over someone with a more consistent track record?  
Look i would be fine with this if these were  the supplemental guys, were not going to have a back end of 5 or 6 closer types, i get that, but when the whole bullpen is that, its problematic.  There needs to be an anchor.  

What you are calling flashes is what others view as RP volatility and the reason for not throwing a huge amount of resources at the bullpen.  FWIW, I agree they need to find an anchor, but not having done so yet doesn't mean they haven't been trying -- which is exactly what you said...   here let me remind you before to you attempt to say you are being misquoted or taken out of context 

3 hours ago, floplag said:

It comes down to effort.  I would not be as vocal as i am about this had we made an effort and they hadn't worked out, but that effort wasn't made.  Dumpster diving for cast offs and the ever popular clean peanut isn't what i consider effort.  

So please, tell us -- How does one go about procuring an established consistent anchor without spending resources the team is only now starting to rebuild?

[Angel Oracle]

The one closer that is the closest to automatic, and a FA-to-be (thus losing only the 2019 2nd round pick), is of course Kimbrel.

He only turns 31 next May, and has been pretty automatic throughout his career (even in a hitter's paradise like skanky decrepit Fenway).   He still K's 1.5 hitters per inning, still routinely puts up sub 1.00 WHIPs, and most of the time puts up sub 2.00 ERA's.   As a closer since 2011, he doesn't inherit many runners, and thus that ERA is a true indicator.  

I guess the one worry would be how many more rock solid full closer seasons does he have in him.   This is year #8 in that role.  

Would he command 4 years/$80 million?   Will the Red Sux give him whatever to stay, since they don't have any big contracts of note?   

[floplag]

You cant win on this forum... all freaking year its been blowpen this blowpen that now all of a sudden im attacked from all quarters for daring to hold it accountable.  
You guys are welcome to see it however you will, my opinion has not changed.  
Peace.

[mulwin444]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

You cant win on this forum... all freaking year its been blowpen this blowpen that now all of a sudden im attacked from all quarters for daring to hold it accountable.  
You guys are welcome to see it however you will, my opinion has not changed.  
Peace.

Didn't think I was attacking, just trying to provide respective...

Our BP has "blown saves", mostly in the middle innings, because we've worked with the a lot of one-run leads and highly leveraged a good, but not great, bullpen.  Jeff Fletcher was talking about this recently.  The difference, essentially, between our BP and seemingly better BPs is the fact the team they are on has a better offense that allows them to work routinely with a lead greater than 1 or 2 runs consistently.

[Dick B Back]

11 minutes ago, floplag said:

You cant win on this forum... 

Anyone coming here expecting to “win” will be subject to the usual punishment. No one wins on AW.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

You cant win on this forum... all freaking year its been blowpen this blowpen that now all of a sudden im attacked from all quarters for daring to hold it accountable.  
You guys are welcome to see it however you will, my opinion has not changed.  
Peace.

Jesus are you capable of entering into a discussion without claiming you're "being attacked" when met with disagreement? 

Apparently the only positive outcome for you in any debate is one where everyone agrees with you.   Guess what dude.....  everyone agrees that the pen has been an issue -- the difference of opinion is that not everyone agrees that they didn't make an effort.   Why is that so hard to grasp?  If anything, you're the only person not allowing for any opinion other than their own...   "Whats that you say?  All the guys seen as THE PIECE blew up?  Doesn't matter!  They should have tried!"

I can't speak for anyone else but I can honestly say I've never been remotely interested in trying to change your opinion, not on this, not on anything else...  I doubt anyone else is either..  but where you can only see black and white, others are seeing shades of grey.   Maybe respect the difference of opinion and refrain from acting like you've been wronged for once.

[floplag]

13 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Didn't think I was attacking, just trying to provide respective...

Our BP has "blown saves", mostly in the middle innings, because we've worked with the a lot of one-run leads and highly leveraged a good, but not great, bullpen.  Jeff Fletcher was talking about this recently.  The difference, essentially, between our BP and seemingly better BPs is the fact the team they are on has a better offense that allows them to work routinely with a lead greater than 1 or 2 runs consistently.

Leads greater than that dont count as save situations
The offense has more than its share of blame. im not absolving that, i simply dont agree with the logic that suggests the bullpen looks worse than it is due to bad offense. .