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Gameday thread: Angels vs. Red Sox (4/17/18)


Chuck

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All of those saying that Ohtani hasn't faced a good O yet, keep in mind that the A's have been more productive than both World Series teams in the Astros & Dodgers offensively. Ohtani has 2 wins in 2 starts, 18 K's across 13 innings with a 2.08 ERA, 0.46 WHIP vs. the 6th best OPS in the league. 

 

OhtaniVsAs.png

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https://www.mlb.com/news/how-red-soxs-bats-can-approach-shohei-ohtani/c-272434464

Interesting read. All of their points cut both ways, though. This will be an interesting test for Ohtani. They say he is a big study of the game, so presumably he will know all of this (and much more). If he is able to locate his 97+ MPH fastball like he was last Sunday, has his splitter working like he has so far, and is able to prepare right, he should be able to get through this without much of a problem. If the Red Sox are able to read him and pick their pitches, they are probably going to hurt him.

 

To me, a big wild card here is his curve ball - he hasn't shown it much, but it looks to me like another + pitch. I wonder if he is holding it back as a pitch he can pull out later in the year to keep teams on their toes - or, if he just doesn't like his curve much.

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Both the Angels and Red Sox have 13 wins. Both are 9-1 in their last ten.

Angels have scored an average of 6.43 runs per game (103/16). The Red Sox are averaging 5.93 runs. Angels are a half a run better.

Angels have allowed an average of 3.43 runs per game (55/16). The Red Sox are averaging 3.13. Red Sox are 0.3 runs better.

Angels have played Oakland (5-2), Cleveland (2-1), Texas (3-0), KC (3-0).

Red Sox have played TB (6-1), Mia (2-0), NYY (2-1), and BAL (3-0).

Angels have 3 blow out wins. (13-2 vs. CLE), (11-1 vs. TEX), (7-1) vs. KC. A blow out is a win by more than 5 runs.

Angels are 3-1 in 1 run games. They have one walk off win and one walk off loss.

Red Sox have 3 blow out wins (10-3 vs. TB), (14-1 vs. NYY), & (10-3 vs. BAL).

Red Sox are 5-0 in 1 run games. They have one walk off win.

 

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25 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Both the Angels and Red Sox have 13 wins. Both are 9-1 in their last ten.

Angels have scored an average of 6.43 runs per game (103/16). The Red Sox are averaging 5.93 runs. Angels are a half a run better.

Angels have allowed an average of 3.43 runs per game (55/16). The Red Sox are averaging 3.13. Red Sox are 0.3 runs better.

Angels have played Oakland (5-2), Cleveland (2-1), Texas (3-0), KC (3-0).

Red Sox have played TB (6-1), Mia (2-0), NYY (2-1), and BAL (3-0).

Angels have 3 blow out wins. (13-2 vs. CLE), (11-1 vs. TEX), (7-1) vs. KC. A blow out is a win by more than 5 runs.

Angels are 3-1 in 1 run games. They have one walk off win and one walk off loss.

Red Sox have 3 blow out wins (10-3 vs. TB), (14-1 vs. NYY), & (10-3 vs. BAL).

Red Sox are 5-0 in 1 run games. They have one walk off win.

 

As of today, per fivethirtyeight:

Average Elo ranking of the teams the Angels have faced: 1494.94

Average Elo ranking of the teams Boston has faced: 1487.07

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Just now, Sherlock31 said:

Wtf is elo ranking? Those nerds just keep making up new stuff......

haha Its a general ranking system. Basically, you assume that all teams are equal, and as teams play against each other, the winner moves up, and the loser moves down. If the result is less expected (a low ranking team beating a high ranking team), the movement is more dramatic. If it is more expected (a high ranking team beating a low ranking team), the movement is minimal. 538 also will weight these rankings with individual pitcher rankings to try to come up with more accurate results (a bad team with an ace winning beating a good team will cause less movement than a bad team without an ace beating a good team). So, obviously these numbers are going to be a bit more volatile at the beginning of the year - though, I believe that 538 will try to predict how much new players help a given team. 

This is used for all kinds of sports/competitions - I've seen it for baseball, international soccer, and chess recently. Its basically a general indicator that compares each team to the rest of the league environment at that moment. So, we and the Red Sox appear to have faced a similar talent level, but our opponents have been slightly harder than theirs.

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There's really a different feel about this game and series. It's April yet it feels like a postseason series. I don't think it would be that way without Ohtani.

 If Ohtani is at his best, there's not much any hitter can do. Hopefully he won't put any unnecessary pressure on himself and treats this game like any other regular season game.

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