Pick 6

[Ohtaniland]

Pick 3 Angels players that you think will perform better than expected this season.

1) Garrett Richards

2) Kole Calhoun

3) Cam Bedrosian

Pick 3 Angels players that you think will perform below expectations this season.

1) Andrew Heaney

2) Zack Cozart

3) Blake Parker

 

 

[jordan]

Above

1) Richards

2) Calhoun

3) Lamb

Below

1) Parker

2) Ohtani (offense)

3) Cozart (offense)

[Erstad Grit]

This will be fun to revisit at the end of the year

Above

1. Heaney

2. Johnson 

3. Carter

Below

1. Upton

2. Ohtani (as a hitter)

3. Parker

 

[eaterfan]

What are expectations? Zips projections? 

I'd imagine my expectations for Valbuena are higher than most on the board so he could easily be below my expectations but above "the boards." So how can we check this?

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Above

1. Heaney

2. Pujols

3. Kinsler

Below

1. Skaggs

2. Bridwell

3. Valbuena

[Second Base]

Above Expectations:

a. Ian Kinsler - Completely rejuvenated. .285/.350 30 DB 20 HR 20 SB and gold glove defense. He'll be top 5 in the league in runs and will record a 5-win season.

b. Andrew Heaney - Former #1 LHP prospect in baseball is healthy and ready to continue his ascension. 180 innings, 3.20 ERA.

c. Kole Calhoun - He underperformed last year. New batting stance, new whole field approach. Normally this would drop his power output, but the shortened fence will help pad the numbers. .290/.360 40 DB 20 HR. Career year.

Below Expectations:

a. Matt Shoemaker - The splitter hasn't worked properly since a brief run in 2016, and 2014. 120 innings and a 4.40 ERA.

b. Tyler Skaggs - Great stuff, but we have a large enough sample size. The results don't match the upside, which isn't completely unusual. 120 innings 4.40 ERA.

(Nick Tropeano and Jaime Barria will pick up the slack).

c. Albert Pujols - He's in better shape, but better shape doesn't mean better pitch recognition or retrieved bat speed. I think this is his final full season. .250/.300 20 DB 15 HR.

[Docwaukee]

good topic.  

above

1.  Heaney - breakout year.  fringe top of the rotation starter for the next four years.  

2.  Skaggs - middle of the rotation starter.  Inconsistent from start to start but solid sub 4 era by years end.  

3.  Ian Kinsler - all star year.  4+ WAR.  

Bonus - Chris Carter - 110 ops+ in 250 pa.  

below

1. The entire bullpen.  - please let me be wrong.  

2. Shoe - near 5 era.  

3. Cozart - depends on expectations.  Solid defense and a .750 ops.  I currently have higher expectations.  

bonus - Ohtani -he'll be a solid pitcher.  but worse than Heaney, Richards and Skaggs.  Better than the rest.  He'll be a meh hitter.  below league avg.  Similar to Pujols and we'll end up with one of the statistically worst DH in the league.  

[Second Base]

47 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

good topic.  

above

1.  Heaney - breakout year.  fringe top of the rotation starter for the next four years.  

2.  Skaggs - middle of the rotation starter.  Inconsistent from start to start but solid sub 4 era by years end.  

3.  Ian Kinsler - all star year.  4+ WAR.  

Bonus - Chris Carter - 110 ops+ in 250 pa.  

below

1. The entire bullpen.  - please let me be wrong.  

2. Shoe - near 5 era.  

3. Cozart - depends on expectations.  Solid defense and a .750 ops.  I currently have higher expectations.  

bonus - Ohtani -he'll be a solid pitcher.  but worse than Heaney, Richards and Skaggs.  Better than the rest.  He'll be a meh hitter.  below league avg.  Similar to Pujols and we'll end up with one of the statistically worst DH in the league.  

I still don't understand the bullpen doubt. Parker was amazing last season. Bedrock was amazing the year before. Jim Johnson has been an elite reliever his whole career expect last year. In my opinion, he's like when we acquired Jason Grilli, but with more upside. Noe Ramirez's numbers at every single level including the majors have been brilliant. Alvarez is steady, dependable and we have a couple of great looking lefties in AAA ready to take the job. Felix Pena was a very good starting pitching prospect in the Cubs system before moving to relief in AAA. With a repertoire and background so similar to JC Ramirez, and options, I think he'll turn into a GREAT multi-inning reliever. Luke Bard was never able to stay healthy. He was healthy last year and the numbers he put up are pretty hard to ignore. He's already comfortably hitting 2 innings and looks better with every appearance. Even if the Angels don't keep him, I think they can work out a deal with the Twins and send him to AAA. Key Middleton put on weight, but then again, so did Kenley Jansen and Jon Papelbon and they were still elite. Eduardo Paredes has been excellent at every minor league stop, and if it weren't for the numbers game, he'd probably be a good major leaguer right now. Jake Jewell is finally moving to relief, which puts him and his heavy mid-90's fastball on a fast track...

I doubt I'll change your mind, but after reading that I'm beginning to think this will be the best bullpen since Shields-K-Rod-Percival.

[John Taylor]

Above

 

1.) Kole Calhoun - He has been working on hitting the ball the other way, and the shorter fence will help his power numbers. He might hit 30 HRs this year.

2.) Albert Pujols - Slimmer, healthier, not "as slow". I think power numbers drop but AVG and OPS increase, and will drive in 120+ RBIs.

3.) Ian Kinsler - Rebound year, he has something to prove.

 

Below

 

1.) Shohei Ohtani - (Pitching and Hitting) - He is a prospect and a work in progress, and this is his rookie season, he needs a year to develop. I think he will be a better pitcher than hitter.

2.) Matt Shoemaker - One of my favorite Angels players, but I have to admit 2016 was more the exception than the norm, probably a 4+ ERA

3.) Andrelton Simmons - (Hitting) - He will still be the best defensive SS in baseball, but will end up .250-.260 BA.

 

Bonus Mike Trout prediction:

.302, 32 HR, 100 RBI, 31 SB, 1.006 OPS 

[JustATroutFan]

Above:

Calhoun: He's been using the whole field this Spring  Training and that basically is what he did in 2016, when he posted a solid slash line. I expect a good OBP, even if the home runs could go up a little big because of the right field wall being lowered. I've stated that Calhoun will bounce back this year and will hit like he did in 2016.

Pujols: He can't get any worse than last season. I say he also hits like he did in 2016. I think he'll go the other way more since the right field wall will be lowered. A slash line of .270/.325/.460 is doable for Pujols this year. And since we know some people on here loves RBIs so much, I think he'll get close to 130.

Kinsler: I expect that he'll also hit like he did in 2016 since he'll be playing for a postseason contender and he's had good career numbers at Angels Stadium. And he'll be playing for a new contract this season, so even more motivation for him to cash in in what will likely be his last decent contract,

Below:

Trout: He'll only play below expectations due to the fact that he put up a Ruthian-like slash line last season, and that might be a little bit too much for Trout to do again. Still, I think he'll put up an OPS over 1.030, and yes, he'll do good in the month of M-A-Y. On top of that, he'll put the Angels on his back and put up a monster postseason, and lead the Angels to that second World Series title.

Cozart: Nice defense but I see him regressing big time this year. Tough to ignore a guy having his only great year with his bat in his contract year.

Bridwell: Yeah, probably. He had a nice season for the Angels last year but he also overachieved. FIP is a little bit way too high and scary to ignore and Angels Stadium will be a slightly better park to hit in this season.

[Angel Oracle]

Above:  Kinsler (rejuvenation with contender), JC Ramirez (lower pitch counts), Johnson (healthy and team contending)

Below:  Ohtani (big adjustments first year), Bridwell (smoke and mirrors a year ago?), Skaggs (staying healthy being difficult)    

[Adam]

Better - Heaney, Upton (40+ Bombs), Shoe (200+ Innings)

Worse - Othani (he'll suck his first year), Pujols (less than 300 ABs), Kinsler (he'll be average at best)

[zenmaster]

Above: Pujols, Calhoun, Cozart

Below: Skaggs, Shoemaker, Heaney

 

In other words we better score about 10 runs per game.

[Adam]

I think we have a serious Claude curse. Every ____________town and ___________land hasn't really worked out all that well. 

[Ohtaniland]

2 minutes ago, Adam said:

I think we have a serious Claude curse. Every _______toriitown and matsuiland hasn't really worked out all that well?

[krAbs]

I'll take the over on: Richards, Heaney, Cozart (Small regression from last year, but I think the juiced ball/changed swing combo is legit).

Under on: Shoemaker, Upton, Tropeano (not sure about him, but he would be my pick for third most likely to under-preform expectations).

[Adam]

2 minutes ago, OHTANILAND said:

Torii was fine. The rest...meh

[Angel Oracle]

4 minutes ago, Adam said:

Torii was fine. The rest...meh

Matsui had a solid 2010 season.   Not his fault the others struggled for the most part

[Angelsfan1984]

Above:

Pujols

Valbuena

Bedrosian

 

Below:

Cozart

Parker

Ohtani-pitching

 

[krAbs]

...I feel like we really should set benchmarks for this thread. We could post the ZIPS/steamer WAR projections, and assume the over/under is on that. I think right now we are doing over/under the general impression of these guys on the board here?

 

Fangraphs has this graphic which seems like a reasonable starting place:

 

Trouble here is that like...I literally don't think I'd take a single under here....I know I'm a homer, but like...a lot of these seem to assume that each player will play unusually seasons, which is odd. Maybe take Richards because he'll go under if he gets hurt? Skaggs and Shoemaker I guess would be the safest unders...

[floplag]

Above:
Kinsler

Pujols, based on expectations being very low, i think he has a little bounce back though nothing  huge

Colhoun

Bonus:  Johnson, i think he could become closer outright.

 

Below:
Othanis bat

Cozarts bat, by a little as i dont think he replicates last season but will still be good

1B platoon

 

[nate]

Above:

Cowart

Valbuena

Upton

Below:

Richards

Shoe

Skaggs

 

Bonus: The Angels worst player, Pujols, will play less than half the season because of injuries and will hit fewer than 20 HRs with an average below 250.

[Hubs]

I agree with @krAbs there are no set expectations to go off. I'd take the over on all of the Fangraphs projections as well.

 

Players I think will surprise, and exceed the general consensus?

Calhoun -- off a down year, will have a All-Star Caliber year. .850 OPS. GG.

Cozart -- His .933 OPS last year in Cinncinnati is not all fake as some pundits think it is. He may not get to .933, but .900 is I think possible. .380 OBP, .520 SLG.

Trout -- 1.250 OPS. 12+ WAR year. MVP.

Pujols - Breaks .800 OPS for the first time since 2012. The one day off a week, and being back at 1B, helps his offense.

Richards -- Health is key, #1 starter is legit.

Heaney -- echoing what some have said, he's back to form.

 

Off year? I am not a negative person so this is a little tough.

Ian Kinsler -- Injuries keep him from being full time 2B.

Valbuena -- even with clearer path to playing time, manages a low .200's average with a .300 OBP

Middleton -- slumps, spends most of season in AAA.

 

Bonus Ohtani projection:

Struggles see him sent briefly to minors in early May, but by August, is one of the best starters in MLB, and one of the best hitters on the Angels.

 

 

 

[eaterfan]

1 hour ago, krAbs said:

...I feel like we really should set benchmarks for this thread. We could post the ZIPS/steamer WAR projections, and assume the over/under is on that. I think right now we are doing over/under the general impression of these guys on the board here?

 

Fangraphs has this graphic which seems like a reasonable starting place:

 

 

Trouble here is that like...I literally don't think I'd take a single under here....I know I'm a homer, but like...a lot of these seem to assume that each player will play unusually seasons, which is odd. Maybe take Richards because he'll go under if he gets hurt? Skaggs and Shoemaker I guess would be the safest unders...

Thanks for posting this. I think it's what this thread needs. I agree that the projections are conservative so I'll go with 3 players I think will beat their projections by the most and three that will be the closest to them.

Most:

1. Kinsler

2. Trout

3. Simmons

Least:

1. Skaggs

2. Maldonado

3. Shoe

 

Other guys I like to beat their projections:

Valbuena will get 1-1.5 WAR depending on playing time 400 PAs minimum. I think Ohtani beats his pitching WAR. And Upton either puts up 2.5 or 5+

[Ohtaniland]

2 hours ago, Adam said:

Torii was fine. The rest...meh