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Pick 6


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4 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Yeah dude, I'm concerned about what @Adam mentioned too. 

We should at least let him go through his rookie season before bringing out the signs. 

He's going to have flashes of brilliance and struggles, as all incredibly talented rookies have. 

Yeah I’m concerned about it also. I think he has tons of talent but just needs to settle in. I do think he’ll be a very successful pitcher if his velocity is as advertised. OHTANILAND in RF would be fun and the sign is ready to process but it should be a wait and see. 

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12 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I still don't understand the bullpen doubt. Parker was amazing last season. Bedrock was amazing the year before. Jim Johnson has been an elite reliever his whole career expect last year. In my opinion, he's like when we acquired Jason Grilli, but with more upside. Noe Ramirez's numbers at every single level including the majors have been brilliant. Alvarez is steady, dependable and we have a couple of great looking lefties in AAA ready to take the job. Felix Pena was a very good starting pitching prospect in the Cubs system before moving to relief in AAA. With a repertoire and background so similar to JC Ramirez, and options, I think he'll turn into a GREAT multi-inning reliever. Luke Bard was never able to stay healthy. He was healthy last year and the numbers he put up are pretty hard to ignore. He's already comfortably hitting 2 innings and looks better with every appearance. Even if the Angels don't keep him, I think they can work out a deal with the Twins and send him to AAA. Key Middleton put on weight, but then again, so did Kenley Jansen and Jon Papelbon and they were still elite. Eduardo Paredes has been excellent at every minor league stop, and if it weren't for the numbers game, he'd probably be a good major leaguer right now. Jake Jewell is finally moving to relief, which puts him and his heavy mid-90's fastball on a fast track...

I doubt I'll change your mind, but after reading that I'm beginning to think this will be the best bullpen since Shields-K-Rod-Percival.

most of my concern is ptsd related from the Dipoto era.  

I worry that Blake Parker is going to turn into a pumpkin.  

That Cam won't regain his dominant form

That middleton's fastball is straight and he's got terrible command.  

That Jim Johnson is done.  

That Felix Pena looks good now, but we've seen that before.  

Luke Bard has no control 

Jake Jewell still needs time in the minors

and I've never been impressed with Paredes frankly.  

There aren't those two to three stalwarts where you have a much better idea of what you are gonna get.  

But I felt the same last year and it worked out fine.  

I have bullpen OCD.  

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1 hour ago, OHTANILAND said:

Yeah I’m concerned about it also. I think he has tons of talent but just needs to settle in. I do think he’ll be a very successful pitcher if his velocity is as advertised. OHTANILAND in RF would be fun and the sign is ready to process but it should be a wait and see. 

Hope you have affiliates in Salt Lake

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Most improved

1. Skaggs-  Change-up has looked really well, curve should come around back in Anaheim 

                   Projection- 30 starts, 170 innings 13-7 3.56 Era

2. Heaney- has looked really well, command has been outstanding and has been attacking righties . 

                     Projection- 20ish starts,  125 innings 10-4  3.34 era

3. Calhoun- guy has been using the entire field and with a shorter Rf wall, he should have improvement.

                       Projection-  280 18 hrs 90 RBI and 358 OBP

4. Kinsler - what can i say he has been a greedy hitter

                     projection- 274 20 Hrs 60 RBi and 355 Obp with 15 Sb

5. Ohtani (SP)- He's only has had one " real" start so far and was not that bad. The stuff is there and i think is curve has chance to be a plus or at least above average.

                       Projections- 23 starts 155 inings  11-7 3.38 Era

Least-

1. Upton- Using his trends, he tends to suck after signing a contract. I do not see that much of decline but a small bit.

               268 Avg 28 Hrs 104 Rbi and 349 Obp

2.  Brid(SP) - he's been hit pretty hard this spring, I think he make a role for himself in the Bp and becomes a key Guy

3.  Thats about it.

the others-

Richards pitch a full year like a Ace and is in the top 5 for CY young.

Shoe!- Will live and die on that Splitter.

Bedrock- an all- start calibrate Closer

Parker - a little decline but not much

Simmons-    Finally hits 300

Jc pitches like a number 3 but miss time due to nerve issue :)

Valbuena hits over 200!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh........ Hopefully.......................................................

 

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2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

most of my concern is ptsd related from the Dipoto era.  

I worry that Blake Parker is going to turn into a pumpkin.  

That Cam won't regain his dominant form

That middleton's fastball is straight and he's got terrible command.  

That Jim Johnson is done.  

That Felix Pena looks good now, but we've seen that before.  

Luke Bard has no control 

Jake Jewell still needs time in the minors

and I've never been impressed with Paredes frankly.  

There aren't those two to three stalwarts where you have a much better idea of what you are gonna get.  

But I felt the same last year and it worked out fine.  

I have bullpen OCD.  

Let me remind you that the Angels effectively have remade their pen multiple times during the season and it always seems to work out.

The relievers you mention above may or may not be the most often used names in the pen, just like Brendan Donnelly, K-Rod, etc.

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1 minute ago, Hubs said:

Let me remind you that the Angels effectively have remade their pen multiple times during the season and it always seems to work out.

The relievers you mention above may or may not be the most often used names in the pen, just like Brendan Donnelly, K-Rod, etc.

dude.  they sucked doing the 'build during the season' for all but half a season from 2010 to 2016.  Last year was the first season that's worked in awhile and it felt more like some luck than something repeatable.  

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5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

dude.  they sucked doing the 'build during the season' for all but half a season from 2010 to 2016.  Last year was the first season that's worked in awhile and it felt more like some luck than something repeatable.  

I can understand the PTSD from the Dipoto era. I lost faith in the Angels ability to draft anything worthwhile for about 4 years.

Eppler has done a lot to mend that heart of mine.

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1. Shoemaker (and I meant to say that before his solid outing today, but sxsw set-up had me preoccupied) will put up one of his even-year stretches of 20 GS/ 130 innings with an ERA around 2.80-3. He may suck for the other 5-7 starts.

2. Heaney will have an ERA around 3.50 and make it through the year.

3. Valbuena...and Marte, who turn into a surprisingly great corner infield platoon.

 

Below...

4. Richards misses some time and doesn't pitch to the ace-like expectations we set. Still lands around production on par with a #2-3, but the missed starts dampen that further.

5. Blake Parker becomes a serious item of concern midseason and winds up being much less dependable than we hoped, possibly even on the chopping block.

6. Offensively, Zack Cozart slumps all the way back to a league average ~.700 OPS guy. His glove makes him plenty useful still, but we wind up second-guessing the deal, especially with guys like Fletcher, Marte, and Walsh all hitting well.

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3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

dude.  they sucked doing the 'build during the season' for all but half a season from 2010 to 2016.  Last year was the first season that's worked in awhile and it felt more like some luck than something repeatable.  

This is a good point and I'm also not comfortable with the hand-waving response of "Eppler knows how to find salvage pitchers". It could be as simple as farming the 2nd tier of guys he knew from the Yankees that they weren't interested in, but even if he does have an analytics and scouting advantage, it can't last forever. Other teams will see a repeat performance and start making the same moves and investments.

That said, I'm a bit more optimistic than the past.

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Above: Heaney and Skaggs both have very solid years (150 innings each of 4.00 ERA). Richards gives 150 innings of 3.30 ERA. And Kinsler falls somewhere between 2016 and 2017 numbers, making him a 4-WAR player.

Below: Simmons falls to an 85 OPS+. Trout proves to be merely great, with a 150 OPS+ (his "worst" season). And Blake Parker spends almost the entire year on the DL. 

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7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

still confident in Blake Parker??

Am I confident in any reliever? No. Am I less confident because Parker is getting shelled this Spring? Still no.

I think my big thing is that I trust Eppler's ability to build a pen, and I like how Scioscia managed the pen last year. If Blake Parker doesn't perform, we have enough options where he won't be forced into high leverage situations, and ultimately, we have the depth to replace him with guys like Felix Pena.

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Above:

1. Heaney ... I don't understand why so many have written him off.  He wasn't ready to come back last year.  I think he'll into a great starter, and a legit #3 guy.  I predict around 25-28 starts with 160-170 innings.  He'll have an ERA in the mid to low 3.00's and a WHIP below 1.25. 

2. JC Ramirez ... I am not just basing this on his Spring performance, but before he got hurt last year, I was starting to think we had found the next great reliever turned starter.  He was a bit inconsistent last year and was working in a brand new pitch, but I am expecting another great year from him with a little more consistency.  I predict he'll have very similar numbers to Heaney.  

3. Cam Bedrosian ... He finally turns into our closer.  He'll post 30+ saves this year. 

Below:

Ohtani ... This is easy because anything short of Babe Ruth will be a disappointment considering the hype.  He probably bellows in AAA for half the year to get used to the elevated opposition and it is obvious he's shell shocked.  I hope throwing him immediately into the fire doesn't do more damage to his psyche.  We'll see how his start tomorrow goes, but if anyone needs a good outing it is him.  

Simmons ... I think he'll have a very good year, but he won't perform to the level he did last year.  His fielding will not change, but he he'll regress to what his mean is from the plate. 

Middleton ... He'll struggle again like he did last year.  Two games he looks like K-Rod, and then the next two games he looks like Mitch Williams after he signed with the angels. 

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  • 5 months later...
13 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I was way off about Ohtani.  

But, unfortunately I was dead on about the bullpen

Too bad the bullpen didn't develop into a strong unit until we were well out of the race. They look good now, Andy heading into next year but my goodness, you were right, unfortunately. Those guys sucked. The overall numbers are deceiving. If you're only looking at the numbers, Parker, Bedrosian, Johnson, Alvarez were all pretty good, but watching them, you see how shaky they were. 

I'm hoping guys like Buttrey, Meyer, and moving Pena back into a multi-inning role like Petit in 2017 will help the staff.

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