BP isnt buying into us AT ALL

[floplag]

Per this posted today on twitter BP has us projected with NO improvement in wins over last season with another 80-82 season and coming in third place behind the Mariners. 

How that's even remotely possible with a full season of Upton ,Othani, and improvements in Cozart and Kinsler i cant even conceive, but here ya go... 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

Edit:  AS i recall fangraphs had us at 88 for reference. 

[red321]

no validation reverse boner 

[zenmaster]

They think the Rays and Mariners will be better than us lol 

[arch stanton]

A quick look and you see it's because they have no faith in our pitching. 788 runs allowed in the Big A won't cut it. Of course, none of us believe that's going to happen, so.....

Edited February 7, 2018 by arch stanton

[mtangelsfan]

Said it in the threads about great projections for us:

Don't care because it is meaningless.  

[floplag]

7 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

A quick look and you see it's because they have no faith in our pitching. 788 runs allowed in the Big A won't cut it. Of course, none of us believe that's going to happen, so.....

Even if the pitching is the same as last season, the offensive changes alone should be worth at least 3-5 games in the standings.
Its projecting us to have a negative run differential when we didnt even have that last year. 
Looking at the individual pitchers numbers doesnt suggest this to be possible. 
IDK how this makes logical sense 

[arch stanton]

Right. Because they project giving up 89 more runs than last year. I'm not defending it. Just pointing out that all it is are runs scored and runs allowed projections with a Pythagorean result attached

[floplag]

Just now, arch stanton said:

Right. Because they project giving up 89 more runs than last year. I'm not defending it. Just pointing out that all it is are runs scored and runs allowed projections with a Pythagorean result attached

i get it, but tell me how that makes sense we give up 89 more runs with mostly the same guys and a much improved defense and a much improved offense, explain that logically please cause i dont get it 

[arch stanton]

I can't tell you that. It's not my projection

[Ohtaniland]

Maybe they know something. 

[krAbs]

Great to hear. I was getting a bit worried with all these positive projections - I like to be the underdog, and let the rest of the league assume we are going to be a joke.

[wopphil]

19 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

A quick look and you see it's because they have no faith in our pitching. 788 runs allowed in the Big A won't cut it. Of course, none of us believe that's going to happen, so.....

I am not convinced our pitching will be very good. It isn't hard to envision Skaggs, Richards and Heaney having health issues, regression from Bridwell, and no contribution at all from Ramirez and Tropeano. I have been a proponent, from the beginning, of signing or trading for another rotation piece.

[Chuck]

17 minutes ago, mtangelsfan said:

Said it in the threads about great projections for us:

Don't care because it is meaningless.  

This! 

[Chuck]

5 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Great to hear. I was getting a bit worried with all these positive projections - I like to be the underdog, and let the rest of the league assume we are going to be a joke.

and THIS! 

[Chuck]

9 minutes ago, OHTANILAND said:

Maybe they know something. 

They know about as much as everyone else. They don't have crystal balls, last time I checked. 

These writers at BP are just like you and I, they're not magicians and physic readers. 

Nothing to see here, @floplag

[mtangelsfan]

11 minutes ago, OHTANILAND said:

Maybe they know something. 

oh I'm betting you are so hoping they are right.

[fanfromday1]

I agree with krAbs. I kind of like the idea of being the underdog. Especially when I go over to Las Vegas and place my bet on the Angels.

However, no matter what all of these other sites may predict I am sure that no MLB team will take them seriously when they play us. Other teams know that the Angels have greatly improved their team this coming year. I look forward to some fun battles with other teams in the AL in 2018.

[Second Base]

I would actually be concerned if BP had any sort of track record in getting these things right. As it stands, they aren't any more accurate than the average informed fan.

Plus, we are already going to be under a media microscope as is with Ohtani's arrival, the free agent splashes we made, the pitching staff being healthy, Albert playing the field for the first time in years and of course, the pressure of winning while we have Mike Trout, as well as Scioscia and Richards impending free agency.

We don't need yet another site praising how great we should be. I'm happier to have doubters because all will be clear once the games are played.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

43 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

A quick look and you see it's because they have no faith in our pitching. 788 runs allowed in the Big A won't cut it. Of course, none of us believe that's going to happen, so.....

Simmons' WAR last season was 7.1, they are projecting him at 2.1 this season. They project most of our pitcher's ERA around 5.0.

[Docwaukee]

Last year we scored 710 and they have us at 780 which makes sense considering the additions mentioned. 

Last year we gave up 709 runs and they have us at 788 which is 79 more.  So they obviously hate our pitching.  They give GR 151ip and a 3.93 era.  If he pitches a full season, he'll have an era at least a run below that.   They think Heaney is gonna pitch 63 innings and JC Ramirez will have a 5.00 era in 127ip.  They pretty much universally hate our pen.  

I get how in a statistical model, our pen wouldn't look good on paper.  But there are some really odd thing that just don't make sense.  Like the Richards era.  Or the fact that they're predicting 55 walks for Shoe in 162ip.  It's like they ignored the rest of his career and went with limited action from last year.  

They're also predicting the worst or second worst career season for Trout, Upton, Cozart, Simmons, Kinsler, and Calhoun.  

I usually defend prediction systems as being an amalgam of stats and/or overly conservative, but this seems like an un proofed last minute throw together.  

[Inside Pitch]

 

I think it's mostly tied to our BP -- they were supposed to be awful last year and produced the 4th best WAR in MLB..    Bullpen volatility is a thing, they are missing a couple of cogs from last years pen.  Where I think they miss the boat is they aren't allowing for the possibility that some of our healthy SPs will likely pitch out of the pen.   But a case could be made that is the pen was as bad as they predicted last year (and again this year), it could have a chain reaction on the entire pitching staff.

[Ohtani&Trout]

BP? Lol. Those projections are garbage.

[Ohtaniland]

35 minutes ago, mtangelsfan said:

oh I'm betting you are so hoping they are right.

Well Las Vegas has us at 20/1 but I don’t see Seattle, Oakland or Texas anywhere near us. The odds certainly imply that we’re good enough to catch the second wild card spot. 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, OHTANILAND said:

Well Las Vegas has us at 20/1 but I don’t see Seattle, Oakland or Texas anywhere near us. The odds certainly imply that we’re good enough to catch the second wild card spot. 

If that’s the case why would you assume “they know something” since 80 wins won’t give us the 2nd wild card.  Never mind I know why.  

[eaterfan]

Also important to note that Angels out performed their base runs last season. They got clutch hits and didn't allow them relative to how they performed overall. 

If the sequencing if their offense were average I think they lose 3 more games last year according to base runs, IIRC. So factor that into the staying point comparison to last season.