BP isnt buying into us AT ALL

[Angel Oracle]

Has BP generally been anti-Halos, like a couple of other pubs are?

[floplag]

I think BP credibility is on the line here.  If the Angels perform to a higher level as projected by others at near 88-90 Wins, they may have jumped the shark with this one once and for all.  

I read the reasoning on this page, https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37606/lineup-card-13-noteworthy-pecota-projections/, and it literally said nothing about anything other than the "ticking time bombs" or Trout and Pujols contracts all while acknowledging what Eppler has done to improve the club but literally give no reason for a lack of improved projection aside from some lame ass new clothes analogy.

Edit:  much ado about nothing i know but man, this seems scathing, and unreasonably so.  

[bloodbrother]

Season over confirmed

[Stradling]

I love what Eppler has done.  I love building a team of athletic guys that can play great defense and can run a little.  That being said, I think in order to win 90+ games, most everything has to go right as the team is currently constructed.  If Parker is going to be the closer, then we need someone to be last years version of Parker and last years version of Petit and last years version of good Norris.  Then we need health in our starting pitching, which isn’t a guarantee.  I do think we will be healthier, but I am an optimistic fan, so of course I think it will be healthier.  If Richards pitches like he did last year, for the entire year and Ohtani is what we think he can be, then we will have a great 1-2 in a playoff series.  Now we just have to make the playoffs.  On the plus side, we still have about $25 million that we could use on another starter or a reliever, or both.  

[mtangelsfan]

I question our starting pitching as well.  There is a whole hell of a lot of starters in the well but most of those same starters come with rather large question marks.  There aren't too many locks in that list.

[Angelsfan1984]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I love what Eppler has done.  I love building a team of athletic guys that can play great defense and can run a little.  That being said, I think in order to win 90+ games, most everything has to go right as the team is currently constructed.  If Parker is going to be the closer, then we need someone to be last years version of Parker and last years version of Petit and last years version of good Norris.  Then we need health in our starting pitching, which isn’t a guarantee.  I do think we will be healthier, but I am an optimistic fan, so of course I think it will be healthier.  If Richards pitches like he did last year, for the entire year and Ohtani is what we think he can be, then we will have a great 1-2 in a playoff series.  Now we just have to make the playoffs.  On the plus side, we still have about $25 million that we could use on another starter or a reliever, or both.  

I'd offer Darvish 4 years 80 and Tony Watson 2 years 10

or

go with Lynn/Cobb 4 years 50 and Holland 3 years 27-30 and Watson 2 years 10

In either case I'd trade Cron for cash and use it to get Morrison for the remainder

[bloodbrother]

The entire pitching staff, starters and bullpen, are question marks. They have talented arms there but nobody with much of a sustained track record to point to that gives you reassurance

After all the bad luck the last few yrs with their arms, I'd like to think/hope that they can get some good fortune this year with regards to these questions. THey are very real concerns though and I can see why a projection system isn't buying in

[Second Base]

30 minutes ago, floplag said:

I think BP credibility is on the line here.  If the Angels perform to a higher level as projected by others at near 88-90 Wins, they may have jumped the shark with this one once and for all.  

I read the reasoning on this page, https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37606/lineup-card-13-noteworthy-pecota-projections/, and it literally said nothing about anything other than the "ticking time bombs" or Trout and Pujols contracts all while acknowledging what Eppler has done to improve the club but literally give no reason for a lack of improved projection aside from some lame ass new clothes analogy.

Edit:  much ado about nothing i know but man, this seems scathing, and unreasonably so.  

Stats don't tell the whole story and humans come with serious bias. Predicting the Angels win only 80 games strikes me as a case of both.

80 wins in this team's floor in my opinion.

[krAbs]

Meh, honestly it looks like they generated these with an algorithm. Some algorithms may score us highly because of our upside (its possible richards, ohtani, kinsler, cozart, pujols, calhoun, and parker all put up amazing years), but some algorithms may just see the risk attached to that list of names and assume that the bottom will fall out from this team. That's also entirely possible - but...IDK, I have a good feeling that we will see more upside than downside from that group. I don't think this prediction is crazy - it just sees a team that over-preformed last year, and added a group of aging and one hit wonder type players. That's not the team that I see, but hey.

[Docwaukee]

37 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Also important to note that Angels out performed their base runs last season. They got clutch hits and didn't allow them relative to how they performed overall. 

If the sequencing if their offense were average I think they lose 3 more games last year according to base runs, IIRC. So factor that into the staying point comparison to last season.

a huge chunk of their offence is concentrate into one spot.  That will promote the ability to manipulate sequencing on offense.  Conversely, good bullpens are another way to manipulate sequencing.  

[arch stanton]

They have Scribner penciled in for 13 starts and Marte backing up the OF corners. The team they’re projecting isn’t the one that gets fielded 

[floplag]

Just now, arch stanton said:

They have Scribner penciled in for 13 starts and Marte backing up the OF corners. The team they’re projecting isn’t the one that gets fielded 

I actually didnt notice that... how can they not know better?  do they seriously not give a fuck outside of about 5 teams?  

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Ohtani&Trout said:

BP? Lol. Those projections are garbage.

They aren't -- but people need to understand what they measure and how to digest the information.   All MLE's and projection systems follow a formula, understanding how they come to their conclusions goes a long ways towards knowing whether or not to worry about them.

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

They have Scribner penciled in for 13 starts and Marte backing up the OF corners. The team they’re projecting isn’t the one that gets fielded 

Yep -- they are just taking historical tends for similar players and applying them to the current player -- there is no effort to correctly spread out the usage and the sort.   Projection systems don't typically differentiate between a guy being injured and a guy just putting up smaller samples because he doesn't merit more playing time.  The biggest volatility is always in the pen, at the two extreme ends of the age spectrum, and with guys coming off injuries...

Kendrys Morales was the good recent example of a guy that the projection systems couldn't peg.  His development within the system was't typical, his injuries cut short his seasons and his return from injury was delayed.    Every system out there missed pretty hard on him at pretty much every stage of his career while with the Angels.   It wasn't a case of the systems being shit, he just didn't fit the typical profiles.

[eaterfan]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

They aren't -- but people need to understand what they measure and how to digest the information.   All MLE's and projection systems follow a formula, understanding how they come to their conclusions goes a long ways towards knowing whether or not to worry about them.

That's too hard. Can't I just like the projection systems that like the Angels and assume any that don't are inherently garbage? 

[bloodbrother]

PECOTA had the Angels going 78-84 last year. Not too shabby

[Angel Oracle]

39 minutes ago, mtangelsfan said:

I question our starting pitching as well.  There is a whole hell of a lot of starters in the well but most of those same starters come with rather large question marks.  There aren't too many locks in that list.

True, but wasn't that the case last season as well?    And the depth is more in 2018, with Ohtani and Tropeano added to the mix.

Just don't get the 80-82 record projection, since the Halos were one of only what, 1/4 of MLB teams getting better in the off-season?

[eaterfan]

25 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Sure. Then you would be Troll Daddy.

It seems like I'd be nearly everyone.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

50 minutes ago, bloodbrother said:

The entire pitching staff, starters and bullpen, are question marks. They have talented arms there but nobody with much of a sustained track record to point to that gives you reassurance

After all the bad luck the last few yrs with their arms, I'd like to think/hope that they can get some good fortune this year with regards to these questions. THey are very real concerns though and I can see why a projection system isn't buying in

They project Richards to throw 151 innings, but with a ERA of 3.97, which seems to be high IMO. In his 12 starts over the last 2 seasons it's been ~2.25. They seem to predict on the high side for the entire pitching staff as well. They underestimate Trout a bit same with Simmons, and Upton. They give the majority of 1B ABs to Cron, which I like but not sure is the plan.

[Hubs]

LAME. I understand most of our projections will tend to be a bit homerish, but these are the opposite.

I'll give them the Maldonado projection, because he was close to this last year.

At 1B, here's where I start to have issues. Jefry Marte sucks. He's not the 2nd string 1B-man. ALBERT PUJOLS is the starter at 1B. The more I think about it, the more I think they run him out at least the majority of the time. And then Valbuena is next in terms of playing time. Cron isn't getting 70% of the playing time. But ok, the projection here isn't optimistic. And Valbuena is basically Cron from the left side, with a bit more pop. So, ok. I can like with this.

At 2B, they project Kinsler to have a slugging percentage under .400. That has literally never happened in his entire career. At least the playing time is probably correct, if they didn't again get his backup right. Cowart should be ahead of Fontana.

At SS, ok, so they don't think Simmons offense is going to last, so that's an opinion. But they are underrating his defensive value.

At 3B, they clearly think Cozart regresses. But even at his career .305 OBP, they ding him 10 points. Really? Why? And they again doubt his power transfers to Anaheim. Th elast three years he's had a slugging percentage over .425, but let's go ahead and project him 40 points lower just because. Even though he slugged .530+ on the road last year, let's call it .388 for fun.

Upton and Calhoun are ok, but pessimistic projections. And Trout, even though they picked him really high, still dinged his OBP .30 points (even though his last two seasons are identical .440+ marks, and his slugging down 70 points over last year. And he's entering his "prime" LOL Really?

I'd say the Angels offense produces at least 780 runs, and that's without knowing what Ohtani will do. I actually think they're closer to the Astros projection of nearly 900 runs, but that's because I believe in the offense, and am not running a statistical model where Jefry Marte starts 72 games and Valbuena only starts 40. Plus they are only giving Albert 8 starts at 1B, and 84 games at DH, and I know that a lot of you would like that, but in reality he's played 145 games on the average and that's with missing the second half a few years back.

Also, guys like Upton, Trout and Simmons who will play almost every day only get 90% projections, so that's like 146 games each.

Playing time just doesn't equal reality, and you can't say they are projecting injuries, because you can't.

 

But the Pitching is really where I don't get what they are doing.

Richards hasn't had an ERA that bad since 2013. Shoemaker is ok projection, but he should do better, Ramirez doesn't make any sense, Scribner isn't getting 13 starts while Bridwell only gets 6. Tropeano isn't mentioned and he's arguably 8th on the depth chart anyway. (Richards, Ohtani, Shoemaker, Skaggs, Heaney, Ramirez, Bridwell) and Jaime Barria would likely get a chance before Scribner. I also don't understand the BP projections.

But anyway, with Jesse Chavez and Ricky Nolasco last year getting 44 starts, at an ERA over 5, this team only gave up 710 runs, but you want to project 10% more even with Ohtani and Richards effectively taking those games?

It's like they don't give us credit for signing the #1 pitcher available, even if he is an unknown. If the Yankees had signed him, his projection would be better.

 

Taking all of this into account, I'll project 840 runs scored and 680 runs allowed. That's a 160 run differential. Even if you lower that by 20, they should still be in the 92-94 win range.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[UndertheHalo]

Presumably it’s hard to give our pitchers positive projections.  We’re all operating on hopes that they’ll be healthy and live up to potential.  Not exactly something that works in analytics. 

This is meaningless. 

Edited February 7, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Troll Daddy]

1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

Sure. Then you would be Troll Daddy.

Lol I don’t bother with projections. Some of us have the ability to predict wins/losses on our own. 

[Revad]

I’d like to see the Angels add another starter but I’m also seeing why they wouldn’t since they already did with Othani.  There’s plenty of talent for a six man rotation with depth to deal with injuries or to avoid overwork.  I’m looking for big years from Richards and Heaney, and anytime you have Tropeano not in the original starting group then that’s a talented rotation.

i think if another starter isn’t signed we’ll see a trade for one during the season.

[Ohtaniland]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

If that’s the case why would you assume “they know something” since 80 wins won’t give us the 2nd wild card.  Never mind I know why.  

They’re 20/1 to win it all. How much money did you put on them?

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, OHTANILAND said:

They’re 20/1 to win it all. How much money did you put on them?

I love grape jelly.