Messy situation at 1B

[Stradling]

Just now, Hubs said:

9 Everyday players, 6 starters and 7 relievers is 22. Three Spots.

But Ohtani is the DH and a pitcher, so?  

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Just now, Hubs said:

Ohtani is effectively a 4th bench when he is not starting as a pitcher or a DH, but he is a DH only type, so he really only can pinch hit, not come in defensively.

He's fast so he can PR also. but yeah not a position player.

[Blarg]

7 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

For the record I don't believe they really go with an actual six man rotation.

With so many pitchers coming off of limited innings the last two years and Ohtani that has never had an MLB pitching season under his belt, the best way to insure these guys get enough but not too many innings is a six man rotation. 

I believe the Angels will adopt this for the 2018 season for at least the first half. Hell, because of attrition the Angels almost had a six man rotation last season as we saw the Starter de Jour out of AAA.

[Blarg]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

But Ohtani is the DH and a pitcher, so?  

So he is part of the six man rotation. That doesn't magically make him one less player on the bench because he will DH 60 games.

[floplag]

i think its something they are looking at to get creative.  
I've posted on this previously so i wont rehash it but i dont expect Cron or possibly even Valbeuna to be part of that equation on opening day.  
I think we might see Morrison or perhaps more likely Headley in trade as strong LH OBP guys. 

[eligrba]

Maybe this is a problem that gets solved during the season with the hopes that Cron or Valbuena can increase their value?

[Hubs]

7 minutes ago, floplag said:

i think its something they are looking at to get creative.  
I've posted on this previously so i wont rehash it but i dont expect Cron or possibly even Valbeuna to be part of that equation on opening day.  
I think we might see Morrison or perhaps more likely Headley in trade as strong LH OBP guys. 

The Angels do not have an additional 25-30M in payroll room to absorb Headley (13M) and Morrison. Even if they managed to just flip Headley straight for Valbuena, which is a net negative in my opinion, that would still cost them $5M more.

[Warfarin]

I have mentioned this before, but the best solution is to acquire a 1B/C who can hit left-handed.  Yasmani Grandal is an excellent trade candidate for us, as the Dodgers probably won't ask for a ton since he only has one year left, and they are possibly looking to create more luxury tax space, since they are right around the cap now when you factor things in like benefits, possible contract incentives, etc.

Grandal would kill THREE birds with one stone - he'd solve our backup C spot (he's an elite framer who could share time with Maldonado, keeping them both fresh late in the season), solve our LH power hitter issue, and provide a legitimate backup 1B.

I'd keep Valbuena - he performed pretty decently in the 2nd half and will likewise have incentive to play well, as he's in his contract season.  Do not underestimate the correlation between being in a "contract year" and player performance.  I'd trade Cron for a reliever (or starter) with options.  He wouldn't fetch much, but he'd be expendable in this case.

Thus, at 1B, you'd have Valbuena the primary 1B, with Pujols playing 1-2 times a week and Grandal playing maybe once a week or so as needed.  Valbuena would also be our backup 3B for when we flex Cozart out to fill-in for Simmons or Kinsler on their off days.

Grandal truly is an ideal solution, and I do think he is attainable, given the Dodgers current situation and impressive pipeline of minor league talent.

 

[Dtwncbad]

15 minutes ago, Blarg said:

With so many pitchers coming off of limited innings the last two years and Ohtani that has never had an MLB pitching season under his belt, the best way to insure these guys get enough but not too many innings is a six man rotation. 

I believe the Angels will adopt this for the 2018 season for at least the first half. Hell, because of attrition the Angels almost had a six man rotation last season as we saw the Starter de Jour out of AAA.

Yes I have heard the explanation and I understand the point.

I just don't believe it is going to happen.

Will more than 5 guys get starts?  Yes.  But I think it is going to be more like one guy used as a swingman to strategically spot start to let Ohtani get 25 starts instead of 32.

That, to me, seems far more realistic than actually inserting a sixth man into a rotation and changing the normal routine of four other starters.

One huge reason for me to believe this is there is no evidence an extra day of rest helps the arm.  There is either enough rest or not.  Five man rotations give them enough rest.  The issue is number of pitches per start.

Having guys go every sixth day and more pitches per start is way worse than five man rotation and just watching the pitch count.

And every pitcher has their own situation to dictate their pitch count.

Having the sixth best starter on a roster get 27 starts instead of the five starters BETTER than him sharing those starts is pretty dumb.

[Hubs]

Ohtani is going to be an experiment that's for sure.

 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

It's going to be fun to see how this all works out. The Texas GM said in a recent interview that they were considering a 6 man rotation also.

[zenmaster]

Convince Pujols to retire.

Trade Valbuena and/or Cron.

Sign Logan Morrison.

Profit?

[Blarg]

16 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Yes I have heard the explanation and I understand the point.

I just don't believe it is going to happen.

Will more than 5 guys get starts?  Yes.  But I think it is going to be more like one guy used as a swingman to strategically spot start to let Ohtani get 25 starts instead of 32.

That, to me, seems far more realistic than actually inserting a sixth man into a rotation and changing the normal routine of four other starters.

One huge reason for me to believe this is there is no evidence an extra day of rest helps the arm.  There is either enough rest or not.  Five man rotations give them enough rest.  The issue is number of pitches per start.

Having guys go every sixth day and more pitches per start is way worse than five man rotation and just watching the pitch count.

And every pitcher has their own situation to dictate their pitch count.

Having the sixth best starter on a roster get 27 starts instead of the five starters BETTER than him sharing those starts is pretty dumb.

What study supports your statement? 

[Warfarin]

19 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Yes I have heard the explanation and I understand the point.

I just don't believe it is going to happen.

Will more than 5 guys get starts?  Yes.  But I think it is going to be more like one guy used as a swingman to strategically spot start to let Ohtani get 25 starts instead of 32.

That, to me, seems far more realistic than actually inserting a sixth man into a rotation and changing the normal routine of four other starters.

One huge reason for me to believe this is there is no evidence an extra day of rest helps the arm.  There is either enough rest or not.  Five man rotations give them enough rest.  The issue is number of pitches per start.

Having guys go every sixth day and more pitches per start is way worse than five man rotation and just watching the pitch count.

And every pitcher has their own situation to dictate their pitch count.

Having the sixth best starter on a roster get 27 starts instead of the five starters BETTER than him sharing those starts is pretty dumb.

Realistically, the era of having starters who routinely exceed 180 IP+ per year is reaching an end.  Given the higher velocities and increasing number of pitchers suffering significant elbow/shoulders injuries, I do think we start seeing SP who average 150-160 IP instead.  I don't think we go to a straight-up 6 man rotation, but I think strategically, you'll see guys optioned/DL'd and shifted around, so that we don't have more than 5 SPs on the roster at once, while also employing something more like a 5.5 man rotation.  I think, realistically, you'll start seeing guys make 26-28 starts a year instead of 32+, and average 150-160 IP as I said.  It makes sense, too - I'd like to keep our SP as fresh as possible for the time it counts the most (playoffs).  

[Dtwncbad]

11 minutes ago, Blarg said:

What study supports your statement? 

From the guy that didn't share a study supporting the idea that an extra day of rest matters versus managing pitch count.

How many teams have six man rotations?

And how many teams are careful with pitch count?

Still need to see a study or can you fundamentally trust the obvious consensus of what teams actually do?

[Angel Oracle]

Grandal makes sense as #2 catcher/backup 1B.    The problem, if trading Cron, is Valnobuena's very questionable 1B defense.  Can the Halos survive Valnobuena playing some 80 games at 1B?

If you are acquiring the LHH Grandal, you might as well trade Valnobuena and eat whatever part of the salary has to be eaten and see if you can get a decent reliever in exchange.

[Stradling]

I remember four man rotations.  Now every team has a five man rotation.  No reason to think they wouldn’t go to a six man rotation.  

[Warfarin]

5 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Grandal makes sense as #2 catcher/backup 1B.    The problem, if trading Cron, is Valnobuena's very questionable 1B defense.  Can the Halos survive Valnobuena playing some 80 games at 1B?

If you are acquiring the LHH Grandal, you might as well trade Valnobuena and eat whatever part of the salary has to be eaten and see if you can get a decent reliever in exchange.

I'm okay giving it a go with Valbuena.  He did have a pretty good 2nd half (wRC+ 126).  His defense at 1B, per Fangraphs, rated higher than both Cron and Marte.  

To me, I'd keep them both on the team.  Maldonado and Grandal would split 4/3 at catcher, and Grandal can start 1-2 times a week at 1B too as needed.  Being a catcher is GRUELING, and I'd like to keep both as fresh as possible come October.  Valbuena can start at 1B 3-4 times a week, with Albert starting 1-2 times.  Valbuena can be flexed to 3B to start 1-2 times a week, with Cozart being used to fill in for Simmons or Kinsler as needed, too.

[krAbs]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I remember four man rotations.  Now every team has a five man rotation.  No reason to think they wouldn’t go to a six man rotation.  

Look, there is no reason to go to a five man rotation. There is no evidence that it helps the pitchers, and we have been using 4 man rotations for years.

In all seriousness, there is some evidence that suggests a 6 man rotation may cause fewer injuries. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear correlated with an increase in effectiveness of the pitchers. So basically, you would have to weigh the talent of your #6 pitcher vs the risk to the other 5 (specifically the risk of TJ of the other 5 - the risk of standard injury would basically be a wash because the injured pitcher would be replaced by the #6 man anyways).

The difficulty here is sample size - the balance is pretty delicate (and likely would change from team to team), and we really don't have the evidence to back up any balance. We are probably a good team to experiment here, though - we have a lot of pitchers with a variety of styles, and a history in injuries. The bench is deep and the need is great.

 

Edit- just noticed how old that 538 article is. History may make a good argument about why it is mistaken, actually.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Valbuena, Valbuena, Valbuena... Meh

[Tank]

22 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I remember four man rotations.  Now every team has a five man rotation.  No reason to think they wouldn’t go to a six man rotation.  

the orioles had a four man rotation in the early 70s, and each of them won 20 games one year (dobson, mcnally, cuellar, and palmer).

[Tank]

48 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Ohtani is going to be an experiment that's for sure.

i imagine we'll see some crazy variations and experiments during spring training.

[Dtwncbad]

Did it ever occur to anyone that starters are not going to be happy with pitching every sixth game reducing their value in terms of wins and losses over the course of a season?  They are trying to be big contributors to make the most money they can.

Will Garret Richards want to hit free agency against other starters as "unproven" to be able to function in a five man rotation?

People can pretend what pro players want doesn't matter, but that is delusional.  I find it very hard to believe all the Angel starters are going to be cool with marking themselves as limited innings starters rather than proving they can take the ball every fifth day.

And the minute one guy struggles in back-to-back starts the blame-it-on-the-six-man-rotation game will begin, and how it doesn't work for this pitcher or that pitcher and maybe somebody should be traded to get out of what doesnt work for them, etc.

I just don't believe we are going down that road.

I will believe it when I see it.

 

[Stradling]

7 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Valbuena, Valbuena, Valbuena... Meh

He had an .866 OPS the 2nd half.  If he does that this year you won’t mind him on the team. 

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

Did it ever occur to anyone that starters are not going to be happy with pitching every sixth game reducing their value in terms of wins and losses over the course of a season?  They are trying to be big contributors to make the most money they can.

Will Garret Richards want to hit free agency against other starters as "unproven" to be able to function in a five man rotation?

People can pretend what pro players want doesn't matter, but that is delusional.  I find it very hard to believe all the Angel starters are going to be cool with marking themselves as limited innings starters rather than proving they can take the ball every fifth day.

And the minute one guy struggles in back-to-back starts the blame-it-on-the-six-man-rotation game will begin, and how it doesn't work for this pitcher or that pitcher and maybe somebody should be traded to get out of what doesnt work for them, etc.

I just don't believe we are going down that road.

I will believe it when I see it.

 

I’m sure his agent can explain this to prospective buyers.  Have you considered it might improve his performance and improve his market?