Messy situation at 1B

[Tank]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

Did it ever occur to anyone that starters are not going to be happy with pitching every sixth game reducing their value in terms of wins and losses over the course of a season?  They are trying to be big contributors to make the most money they can.

Will Garret Richards want to hit free agency against other starters as "unproven" to be able to function in a five man rotation?

People can pretend what pro players want doesn't matter, but that is delusional.  I find it very hard to believe all the Angel starters are going to be cool with marking themselves as limited innings starters rather than proving they can take the ball every fifth day.

And the minute one guy struggles in back-to-back starts the blame-it-on-the-six-man-rotation game will begin, and how it doesn't work for this pitcher or that pitcher and maybe somebody should be traded to get out of what doesnt work for them, etc.

I just don't believe we are going down that road.

I will believe it when I see it.

 

i think richards would benefit from a six man rotation as much as anyone, maybe more, given his injury history.

i think it's also important to remember that the success of the team comes first, not individual stats. anyone who doesn't get that is going to have a difficult time with management.

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Stradling said:

I’m sure his agent can explain this to prospective buyers.  Have you considered it might improve his performance and improve his market?  

You mean like platooning a player can up a guys slash line, and then the agent can explain to teams in free agency that they should ignore that the player platooned and he is worth equal or more than the other guy that didn't platoon?

[Dtwncbad]

4 minutes ago, Tank said:

i think richards would benefit from a six man rotation as much as anyone, maybe more, given his injury history.

i think it's also important to remember that the success of the team comes first, not individual stats. anyone who doesn't get that is going to have a difficult time with management.

Richards would benefit from a pitch count.

And the team would benefit from more starts from Richards over the 6th best starter on the roster.

Further, these guys will all be on pitch counts no matter how often they pitch.  So now your bullpen is one man short and still has to cover innings 6-9.

Maybe relievers should all get more rest between outings too?

Save starter arms but blow up bullpens arms covering the same number if relief innings with one less bullpen arm?

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You mean like platooning a player can up a guys slash line, and then the agent can explain to teams in free agency that they should ignore that the player platooned and he is worth equal or more than the other guy that didn't platoon?

No I don’t mean like platooning a player.  

[Troll Daddy]

40 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I remember four man rotations.  Now every team has a five man rotation.  No reason to think they wouldn’t go to a six man rotation.  

Brilliant analysis 

[Tank]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Richards would benefit from a pitch count.

And the team would benefit from more starts from Richards over the 6th best starter on the roster.

Further, these guys will all be on pitch counts no matter how often they pitch.  So now your bullpen is one man short and still has to cover innings 6-9.

Maybe relievers should all get more rest between outings too?

Save starter arms but blow up bullpens arms covering the same number if relief innings with one less bullpen arm?

another theory would be that having an extra day of rest means their arm isn't as taxed and they can go longer in each start. that can save the bullpen arms a bit, too.

i imagine april-june will be filled with lots of experiments on finding the right/best approach to this. there really isn't any kind of blueprint for this, at least not right now.

[Stradling]

Just now, Troll Daddy said:

Brilliant analysis 

Thank you for your tremendous comtribution jackass.  

[Troll Daddy]

I’m comfortable with the 1B situation for now. Pujols is the X factor ... let’s wait and see. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

The heavy lifting of this off season is done for us.  One of the few teams that can say that and we had some serious holes to fill.  Eppler and co. are likely very comfortable going to battle with the current roster but you just know he's eyeing some upgrades that could be had on the cheap.  

So he's put himself in a fairly enviable position of suddenly being one of the prettiest girls at the dance that's mostly a sausage fest.  

Cron is an obvious trade candidate, but likely doesn't have a ton of value.  That said, the market is playing out nicely for a team with some redundancy at 1b.  With Moreland, Matt Adams, Yonder Alonso and Carlos Santana already off the board there are only a couple guys left equivalent in value to Cron.  In fact, outside of Hosmer, it's really only Morrison likely to command more than a 1yr deal.  The rest; Reynolds, Napoli, Valencia, and Lind are likely one and done but capable.   Hosmer is in a different category but frankly, he's in Boras no man's land right now.  I think he'll eventually end up in SD but who knows.   

Other suitors for 1b?  Well that's the nit of course.  There aren't many.  

TB - arguable

NYM - do they go with Dom Smith?  probably although are likely a candidate for a 1yr guy.  

SD - top candidate for Hosmer.  Would they move Myers to the OF for Cron?  doubtful.  

STL - unlikely to move Carpenter off of 1b.  

COL - definitely a candidate to upgrade 1b and Cron would actually be a great fit to really bust out here.  

and that's really about it.  

So teams aren't going to overpay for him by any stretch.  We're likely better off keeping him unless there's a decent reliever coming back which I would doubt.  Another though would be to try and grab a decent upper minors potential replacement for Kinsler next year.  

In general though I think Cron becomes part of 'bubble' guys whether it's for going out or coming in.  My guess is that there is both SP and RP on that list as well.  Billy is going to wait this out and grab some opportunities to bring more value to the system. 

Cron is a bubble guy, and I think he'll be traded for a bubble guy.  Sort of like when the Angels dealt Andrew Romine for Jose Alvarez.

I'm guessing Angels swing a deal with the Mets for one of their pitchers in the upper minors that haven't seen much success beyond Advanced A Ball but have enough quality pitches to make it as a swing starter with a few adjustments. But most importantly, options.

[Dtwncbad]

2 minutes ago, Tank said:

another theory would be that having an extra day of rest means their arm isn't as taxed and they can go longer in each start. that can save the bullpen arms a bit, too.

i imagine april-june will be filled with lots of experiments on finding the right/best approach to this. there really isn't any kind of blueprint for this, at least not right now.

Man you talk about playing with fire.  It would be insane to stretch out pitchers to go longer in games as a result of a six man rotation.  Insane.

You are begging for players, agents, and fans to put the blame for an injury squarely on management when a guy gets hurt.

Nobody blames management for injuries in 5 man rotations where they don't let pitchers go past 105 pitches.

Seriously this is crazy talk.

[Blarg]

58 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

From the guy that didn't share a study supporting the idea that an extra day of rest matters versus managing pitch count.

How many teams have six man rotations?

And how many teams are careful with pitch count?

Still need to see a study or can you fundamentally trust the obvious consensus of what teams actually do?

So you made something up and presented it as fact, again. You do this a lot and have little credibility.

Ohtani is from Japan where all teams have a 6 man rotation and fewer cases of ulner tears even though they throw a lot of innings, moreso than their US counterparts. And yet they have less than half the amount of ligament surgeries.

 http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/76156074/major-league-baseball-six-man-starting-pitcher-rotations-tommy-john-elbow-injuries

So, yes, there is facts that support a six man rotation to maintain pitchers arm health. My guess is the MLB 25 man roster is the singular stumbling block to teams adopting it. 

Edited December 28, 2017 by Blarg

[krAbs]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

So you made something up and presented it as fact, again. You do this a lot and have little credibility.

Ohtani is from Japan where all teams have a 6 man rotation and fewer cases of ulner tears even though they throw a lot of innings, moreso than their US ****erparts. And yet they have less than half the amount of ligament surgeries.

 http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/76156074/major-league-baseball-six-man-starting-pitcher-rotations-tommy-john-elbow-injuries

So, yes, there is facts that support a six man rotation to maintain pitchers arm health. My guess is the MLB 25 man roster is the singular stumbling block to teams adopting it. 

Also in Japan, starters throw more pitches. Granted, not a TON more, and they do have two more days of rest than our 5-man rotation starters, but still.

[Blarg]

Nice autocorrect find.

[krAbs]

9 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Nice autocorrect find.

Whoa, I didn't even notice that. I'm assuming my computer at work has some interesting settings? haha

 

Edit- or, apparently its an angelswin thing, based on Dtwncbad's post.

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

So you made something up and presented it as fact, again. You do this a lot and have little credibility.

Ohtani is from Japan where all teams have a 6 man rotation and fewer cases of ulner tears even though they throw a lot of innings, moreso than their US ****erparts. And yet they have less than half the amount of ligament surgeries.

 http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/76156074/major-league-baseball-six-man-starting-pitcher-rotations-tommy-john-elbow-injuries

So, yes, there is facts that support a six man rotation to maintain pitchers arm health. My guess is the MLB 25 man roster is the singular stumbling block to teams adopting it. 

I didn't make anything up and present it as fact.  I stated an actual fact.

Every MLB team, with lots of medical analysis, chooses a five man rotation as the best plan to maximize wins versus injury risk.

That means something to people who think reality matters and that consensus is at least as valid as one link you can find to the contrary.

 

[Angel Oracle]

49 minutes ago, Tank said:

the orioles had a four man rotation in the early 70s, and each of them won 20 games one year (dobson, mcnally, cuellar, and palmer).

The worry is overworking any of your starters.   Billy Martin had his staff throw 106 CG's in 1980.   Shortly after, they all developed some sort of arm/elbow/shoulder issue.

[AngelsLakersFan]

19 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I didn't make anything up and present it as fact.  I stated an actual fact.

Every MLB team, with lots of medical analysis, chooses a five man rotation as the best plan to maximize wins versus injury risk.

That means something to people who think reality matters and that consensus is at least as valid as one link you can find to the contrary.

 

What do you suggest they do? Bare in mind that not a single pitcher on this roster should be available beyond 180 innings next year, and a good chunk of them likely not throwing more than ~140-150.

[Jeff Fletcher]

Billy Eppler is pretty sure a six man rotation helps. 

https://www.ocregister.com/2017/12/12/angels-leaning-toward-six-man-rotation-to-help-all-pitchers-not-just-shohei-ohtani/

 

[Dtwncbad]

5 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

What do you suggest they do? Bare in mind that not a single pitcher on this roster should be available beyond 180 innings next year, and a good chunk of them likely not throwing more than ~140-150.

I suggest a normal five man rotation and if you need to utilize the depth of starters the Angels have by giving a spot start here and there to a guy that needs a rest so be it.

Ohtani may be something more complicated to manage.  Not sure.  Everyone speculates since he pitched once a week that he can only pitch once a week here.  I personally wouldn't default to that unless this was something Ohtani wanted an assurance if to sign here.

But I would not schedule a regular six man rotation.

I am repeating a point but I just hate the idea of not maximizing the number of starts for your best pitchers.

But this is my personal position.

Also, what happens when two starters go on the DL?

So now you have your 7th and 8th best starters getting the ball regularly?

It just seems like this 6 man plan is on the wrong side of the injury risk versus cost to wins trade off.

That's my opinion.

[Dtwncbad]

7 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Billy Eppler is pretty sure a six man rotation helps. 

https://www.ocregister.com/2017/12/12/angels-leaning-toward-six-man-rotation-to-help-all-pitchers-not-just-shohei-ohtani/

 

Yes I read that.

I am sticking my neck out predicting it just doesn't happen.  I am not arguing it isn't a vogue subject and being tossed around.

I am saying I will believe it when I see it.

There are some significant forces in play, including how players and agents will process the strategy.  They may embrace it and they may reject it.

It says right in that article the input from the other starters will matter.  And when the whole analysis is over we may discover that the Angels don't want to be a team that goes against what their starting pitchers want to do.  That hurts them in contract talks and attracting players.

We will see.  Nobody knows.

I just don't believe it is going to happen and if I am wrong I will admit I was wrong.  Big deal.  I am fine admitting when I am wrong.

[Troll Daddy]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I suggest a normal five man rotation and if you need to utilize the depth of starters the Angels have by giving a spot start here and there to a guy that needs a rest so be it.

Ohtani may be something more complicated to manage.  Not sure.  Everyone speculates since he pitched once a week that he can only pitch once a week here.  I personally wouldn't default to that unless this was something Ohtani wanted an assurance if to sign here.

But I would not schedule a regular six man rotation.

I am repeating a point but I just hate the idea of not maximizing the number of starts for your best pitchers.

But this is my personal position.

Also, what happens when two starters go on the DL?

So now you have your 7th and 8th best starters getting the ball regularly?

It just seems like this 6 man plan is on the wrong side of the injury risk versus cost to wins trade off.

That's my opinion.

Maximizing the starts of your best pitchers is valid. Unfortunately, the Angels best pitchers are valuable to injury  

You’re not going to pay Kershaw or Greinke $35M to pitch once a week. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

6 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I suggest a normal five man rotation and if you need to utilize the depth of starters the Angels have by giving a spot start here and there to a guy that needs a rest so be it.

Ohtani may be something more complicated to manage.  Not sure.  Everyone speculates since he pitched once a week that he can only pitch once a week here.  I personally wouldn't default to that unless this was something Ohtani wanted an assurance if to sign here.

But I would not schedule a regular six man rotation.

I am repeating a point but I just hate the idea of not maximizing the number of starts for your best pitchers.

But this is my personal position.

Also, what happens when two starters go on the DL?

So now you have your 7th and 8th best starters getting the ball regularly?

It just seems like this 6 man plan is on the wrong side of the injury risk versus cost to wins trade off.

That's my opinion.

So when Tyler Skaggs or Andrew Heaney break out and dominate for 150 innings are you just gona shut them down, a la Steven Strasberg, or are you going to run them into the ground? If you are planning on making them 5 inning pitchers, how do we do that without destroying the pen?

I could maybe get behind skipping their spot in the rotation every so often, but I'm not sure if that is practical roster wise since a DL trip or a shuttle down to Salt Lake will take them out of two straight starts. Perhaps there is something in this idea though.

What ever the team decides to do I'm behind it. I think we will see some hybrid approach that isn't a true 6 man rotation but also very different from a traditional 5 man. Perhaps we will see Ohtani pitch every saturday (or some other guaranteed day), and use a 6th starter / swing man during every week without an off day.

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Troll Daddy said:

Maximizing the starts of your best pitchers is valid. Unfortunately, the Angels best pitchers are valuable to injury  

You’re not going to pay Kershaw or Greinke $35M to pitch once a week. 

Whether it is rational or not, lots of these guys have goals to be that beast starter that gets the monster contract.

If they think their arm is sound, how are they going to react to limiting their starts?

I find the odds of 6 starters and their agents all being on board to be long odds.

[Erstad Grit]

Nobody wants cron or valbuena.  

Let them compete for at bats with pujols and Ohtani.  

I'd let it ride and sign a bullpen  piece.  

[DMVol]

3 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Nobody wants cron or valbuena.  

Let them compete for at bats with pujols and Ohtani.  

I'd let it ride and sign a bullpen  piece.  

You might get a nibble for Cron because he would be a little cheaper (although he is eligible for arbitration so he won't be very cheap)....You might trade Valbuena but nobody is going to take on very much of the 8 million he is due....Better off keeping him and getting a little value out of him rather than eating most of his money....Eppler has hit a lot of the right notes so far but signing Valbuena was not a good idea....Given that, I'd keep them both as you say....and spend my money on pitching...