The Official Angels Hot Stove - Winter Meetings - Rumors thread

[Ohtaniland]

It's a good thing that we jumped in early and signed Chase Utley before some other team beat us to the punch.

 

 

[ettin]

2 hours ago, wopphil said:

And the plus would probably have to be Thaiss and Jones. I assume Odorizzi's trade value is vastly higher than Cron's (though I do think Cron is underrated).

Actually if you take Cron's and Odorizzi's projected WAR (1.5 and 2 respectively) for next season and project it out to their remaining seasons (4 and 3 years respectively) with a basic $/WAR valuation (rudimentary projection here) Cron's value is approximately $35M and Odorizzi's is approximately $29M. Even if you put a 20% premium on Jake's value that still only increases his value by $6M. To me it is probably a straight up fair swap with the extra year of control providing the additional value with C.J.

[Stradling]

4 hours ago, CALZONE said:

It's a good thing that we jumped in early and signed Chase Utley before some other team beat us to the punch.

 

 

I remember a guy that said we wouldn't spend the money on a 2nd baseman.   We did that, then signed a utility player to a $15 million contract.  We kind of spent some money this off season.  Let's finish it off with an arm and if the price is low enough Weiters. 

[Ohtaniland]

5 hours ago, Stradling said:

I remember a guy that said we wouldn't spend the money on a 2nd baseman.   We did that, then signed a utility player to a $15 million contract.  We kind of spent some money this off season.  Let's finish it off with an arm and if the price is low enough Weiters. 

Arte and Eppler have done a great job re-routing the Wilson / Weaver monies by filling the roster with less rediculas contracts while ramping down the budget and staying way under the luxury tax.

In fact I think the entire league did a great job this offseason by signing tons of one year deals. I believe that the < $120M Astros are the favorites to win the AL West. We could use another arm but we don't need to overpay Weiters.

[Stradling]

I agree we don't need to overpay Weiters, but I wouldn't mind paying Weiters since it certainly seems his price has dropped.  The balance he would bring to our lineup would be pretty great.  If we were going against a tough righty being able to have Calhoun, Revere, Valbuena and Weiters, would be great.  The simple fact you wouldn't have a black hole of offense at catcher would be nice.  If you are down a run late in the game you are going to have to pinch hit for Maldonado or Perez just about every time unless they are bunting someone over, and we all know how much everyone loves "giving away outs".  Last year our left handed bats were Calhoun, Nava, Ortega, Choi, Kubitza, Cowart.  If the price is right he helps this team in my opinion. 

[eligrba]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I agree we don't need to overpay Weiters, but I wouldn't mind paying Weiters since it certainly seems his price has dropped.  The balance he would bring to our lineup would be pretty great.  If we were going against a tough righty being able to have Calhoun, Revere, Valbuena and Weiters, would be great.  The simple fact you wouldn't have a black hole of offense at catcher would be nice.  If you are down a run late in the game you are going to have to pinch hit for Maldonado or Perez just about every time unless they are bunting someone over, and we all know how much everyone loves "giving away outs".  Last year our left handed bats were Calhoun, Nava, Ortega, Choi, Kubitza, Cowart.  If the price is right he helps this team in my opinion. 

I think there was only one left-handed bat last year.  The others were just left-handed.

[totdprods]

Wieters is a little strange - up until 2014, he was much better hitting from the right side. Over the last three years though, his hitting has been better from the left side.

Wonder if the TJ surgery affected him a lot more hitting right-handed and he's been slow to recover/readjust. Could mean that he actually has a chance at putting together a really good offensive season if he was still adjusting last year.

Wieters '09-'13 (pre-Tommy John)
vs RHPs: .250/.314/.397/.710 in 2051 PAs
vs LHPs: .280/.341/.486/.827 in 748 PAs

Wieters '14-'16 (year of surgery and post-Tommy John)
vs RHPs: .280/331/.444/.775 in 647 PAs
vs LHPs: .244/.277/.447/.724 in 210 PAs

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, eligrba said:

I think there was only one left-handed bat last year.  The others were just left-handed.

Yep, exactly.  A one or two year deal for Weiters puts us around last years payroll and we would be putting a much better team on the field.  It's contracts like this that don't hurt a team because it's a one or two year deal.  Now if someone pays him 3 years $45 million at this point, then I agree that's too much.  I wouldn't shy away from 2 years $22 million maybe with a third year team option. 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Yep, exactly.  A one or two year deal for Weiters puts us around last years payroll and we would be putting a much better team on the field.  It's contracts like this that don't hurt a team because it's a one or two year deal.  Now if someone pays him 3 years $45 million at this point, then I agree that's too much.  I wouldn't shy away from 2 years $22 million maybe with a third year team option. 

And like we just saw with Valbuena, it creates a tradeable surplus. It gives us enough depth that if an offer for Wieters, Perez, Maldonado, or even Ward came up during the season, it's that much easier to consider it.

[totdprods]

Travis Wood has at least one offer from a team to be a SP, could it be the Angels? He'd basically be Chavez but from the left side. 

[ukyah]

15 hours ago, wopphil said:

And the plus would probably have to be Thaiss and Jones. I assume Odorizzi's trade value is vastly higher than Cron's (though I do think Cron is underrated).

no way in hell would i trade cron, thaiss and jones for odorizzi. 

no friggin' way.

[DMVol]

3 minutes ago, ukyah said:

no way in hell would i trade cron, thaiss and jones for odorizzi. 

no friggin' way.

I don't think it would take both Thaiss and Jones.....but it might take one of the two....I'd do Cron and Perez (and then sign Wieters) but not sure Tampa would jump on that....

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Travis Wood has at least one offer from a team to be a SP, could it be the Angels? He'd basically be Chavez but from the left side. 

Halos have taken their time on pitching signings.   It's smart, but also a little concerning with ST just 17 days away.

Wood would be a nice signing.

Eppler must be confident in the current bullpen's chances.

[wopphil]

14 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Halos have taken their time on pitching signings.   It's smart, but also a little concerning with ST just 17 days away.

Wood would be a nice signing.

Eppler must be confident in the current bullpen's chances.

I agree, Wood would be a perfect fit for this team, given his versatility. And he should be interested in coming here, given the high likelihood he would be given a chance to start.

[totdprods]

16 hours ago, wopphil said:

And the plus would probably have to be Thaiss and Jones. I assume Odorizzi's trade value is vastly higher than Cron's (though I do think Cron is underrated).

I think Odorizzi could probably be had for Cron, Perez, and a good prospect not named Thaiss or Jones. You may need to add two prospects even, but may be able to pull back a reliever and Odorizzi. 

Something like Cron, Perez, Nate Smith, and Paredes for Odorizzi and Enny Romero.

And I know he isn't as exciting as Odorizzi, but I would still consider something like Cron and Perez (and maybe a fringe prospect or out of options arm) for Andriese and another player, a safer or more MLB-tested player, such as Erasmo Ramirez or perhaps a prospect. Erasmo would be another solid hybrid-role arm that could work out of the pen or as rotation depth.

[Docwaukee]

I feel like Odorizzi is a solid player, but I am not a huge fan personally.  

He's averaged 5.7ip per start over the last 3 years.  Just to give you an idea of what that would be like, Hector Santiago averaged 5.6ip per start his last couple of years with the halos.  

While that is something I think the Rays has purposefully done ie shortening SP outings, it skews his numbers to look even better than pitchers who are asked to go deeper into games.  As I have mentioned in the past, I am fine with limiting the exposure of your starters, but would we use Odorizzi like that?  

Either way, you are effectively getting a #3/4.  

I would rather target a guy who's a little more green with higher upside if I am moving Cron.   I want #2 starter upside.  

 

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, DMVol said:

I don't think it would take both Thaiss and Jones.....but it might take one of the two....I'd do Cron and Perez (and then sign Wieters) but not sure Tampa would jump on that....

cron and perez is a very different story than cron and theiss/jones.

i could definitely understand a cron and perez for odirizzi trade. it would be great if the angels could get a nice young reliever from the rays as well. i'd think most would agree that would be a pretty good fitting trade for both teams.

[ukyah]

18 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

I feel like Odorizzi is a solid player, but I am not a huge fan personally.  

He's averaged 5.7ip per start over the last 3 years.  Just to give you an idea of what that would be like, Hector Santiago averaged 5.6ip per start his last couple of years with the halos.  

While that is something I think the Rays has purposefully done ie shortening SP outings, it skews his numbers to look even better than pitchers who are asked to go deeper into games.  As I have mentioned in the past, I am fine with limiting the exposure of your starters, but would we use Odorizzi like that?  

Either way, you are effectively getting a #3/4.  

I would rather target a guy who's a little more green with higher upside if I am moving Cron.   I want #2 starter upside.  

 

#2 starter upside would be great, but i don't know if that's available. you make a fair point about odorizzi though. i've argued in favor of cron and perez, but the angels definitely need some quality pitching. they've got themselves a perfectly playoff caliber lineup and bench, but that staff is holding them back, most likely. i think any chance to better that staff significantly has to be taken.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, ukyah said:

#2 starter upside would be great, but i don't know if that's available. you make a fair point about odorizzi though. i've argued in favor of cron and perez, but the angels definitely need some quality pitching. they've got themselves a perfectly playoff caliber lineup and bench, but that staff is holding them back, most likely. i think any chance to better that staff significantly has to be taken.

Personally, I think the staff is either going to be healthy and do well or they'll be injured and we're hosed.  If you are talking about displacement then Odorizzi takes the place of Chavez.  That's a solid exchange on paper.  A couple of wins for 2017.   

But what about 2018-2020?  That's where it gets a little fuzzy in my view because then you are going by projection and what ifs.  You lose Escobar to FAcy and shit Valbuena to 3b.  Then you have a 38, 39, and 40yo Pujols as your DH/1b man and Thaiss on the way.  Probably ready for 2019.  Maybe.  You've also got Marte who could end up a nice player or nothing.  So you are likely going to have to tap the FA market.  Hosmer is the top 1b FA and the position FA depth is quite weak but because of the flexibility of Valbuena you could move him to 1b and shop for a 3bman.  Moustakas is the top guy available but the position FA class is also pretty weak.  

On the pitching side, after 2017 you lose Nolasco and Chavez.  Who knows what Meyer becomes but you still have Richards, Skaggs, Shoe and you also have Trop and Heaney returning so lots of risk in that rotation.  But there is a bit more depth on the FA market for next winter as it stands right now with Arrieta, Darvish, Chatwood, Cobb, Jaime Garcia, Tyson Ross, Chris Tillman, and a few others.  

Albert's age and health as well as Thaiss prospect status and the lack of depth in the 1b and 3b FA market for next year scare me more than Heaney and Trop recovering from injury and everyone else in the rotation staying somewhat healthy.  As well as the fact that there is more depth on the SP FA market for next year and we have more bottom of the rotation depth in our system than we have guys who could become a full time corner IF position player.  

I think I am standing pat right now.  I want to see what Meyer is.  I want to see how Heaney and Trop recover.  I want to see if Richards can stay healthy.  If Shoe can come back and be what he was for most of last year.  I want to see if Albert can walk and if Thaiss continues with appropriate progression.  I want to see if we can get someone serviceable out of Banuelos, Pounders, Campos, or Lamb.  

I don't disagree that Odorizzi would be helpful for at least 2017 but I am more afraid of the lack of opportunity at the corners for the next 2-3 years than I am SP.  

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

On the pitching side, after 2017 you lose Nolasco and Chavez.  Who knows what Meyer becomes but you still have Richards, Skaggs, Shoe and you also have Trop and Heaney returning so lots of risk in that rotation.  But there is a bit more depth on the FA market for next winter as it stands right now with Arrieta, Darvish, Chatwood, Cobb, Jaime Garcia, Tyson Ross, Chris Tillman, and a few others.  

As well as the fact that there is more depth on the SP FA market for next year and we have more bottom of the rotation depth in our system than we have guys who could become a full time corner IF position player.  

I want to see what Meyer is.  I want to see how Heaney and Trop recover.  I want to see if Richards can stay healthy.  If Shoe can come back and be what he was for most of last year.  I want to see if Albert can walk and if Thaiss continues with appropriate progression.  I want to see if we can get someone serviceable out of Banuelos, Pounders, Campos, or Lamb.  

I don't disagree that Odorizzi would be helpful for at least 2017 but I am more afraid of the lack of opportunity at the corners for the next 2-3 years than I am SP.  

I think @Dochalo hit the nail on the head with why Eppler has made the moves he has made this offseason which could have been seen as 'ignoring' the pitching. The pitching FA class was absolutely weak as hell, and the SP trade market was certifiably insane. Jaime Garcia got a freakin' haul. Drew Smyly got a freakin' haul. Eppler maximized the FA/trade market where it was deepest and most affordable - middle of the road positional player talent.

This is also why I think Eppler may be building SP depth now as a precursor to an eventual trade involving one of our SPs. I don't think anyone can ever really safely predict how a team will do going into the year. Shitty teams can coalesce quicker than expected, powerhouses struggle, and injuries happen. So, while all of us can throw around these expectations of them winning x amount of games or being buyers/sellers at the deadline, it's pretty moot right now. 

But you can't ignore the depth Eppler is buillding on the pitching front. Most of it is unproven, young, and has upside even with considerable durability concerns. We have nothing in the high-minors for position player talent. Next offseason, you're looking at a deep FA SP class and some think positional player FA bats. It's logical to assume Eppler is planning on getting ahead of that by looking at the deadline to move one or two of our MLB arms for positional player talent, regardless of how our team is performing (because not even knows where we will be in July), call up some of AAA arms we've assembled and audition them through the rest of the year, and then roll into the offseason with greater positional player depth (to replace our outgoing FAs and lessen the immediacy of signing a FA bat in a thin class) and a plan to sign an arm or two in the heavy FA SP class. With Heaney and Trop also returning, we should still have good depth to work with.
 

[ukyah]

23 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Personally, I think the staff is either going to be healthy and do well or they'll be injured and we're hosed.  If you are talking about displacement then Odorizzi takes the place of Chavez.  That's a solid exchange on paper.  A couple of wins for 2017.   

But what about 2018-2020?  That's where it gets a little fuzzy in my view because then you are going by projection and what ifs.  You lose Escobar to FAcy and shit Valbuena to 3b.  Then you have a 38, 39, and 40yo Pujols as your DH/1b man and Thaiss on the way.  Probably ready for 2019.  Maybe.  You've also got Marte who could end up a nice player or nothing.  So you are likely going to have to tap the FA market.  Hosmer is the top 1b FA and the position FA depth is quite weak but because of the flexibility of Valbuena you could move him to 1b and shop for a 3bman.  Moustakas is the top guy available but the position FA class is also pretty weak.  

On the pitching side, after 2017 you lose Nolasco and Chavez.  Who knows what Meyer becomes but you still have Richards, Skaggs, Shoe and you also have Trop and Heaney returning so lots of risk in that rotation.  But there is a bit more depth on the FA market for next winter as it stands right now with Arrieta, Darvish, Chatwood, Cobb, Jaime Garcia, Tyson Ross, Chris Tillman, and a few others.  

Albert's age and health as well as Thaiss prospect status and the lack of depth in the 1b and 3b FA market for next year scare me more than Heaney and Trop recovering from injury and everyone else in the rotation staying somewhat healthy.  As well as the fact that there is more depth on the SP FA market for next year and we have more bottom of the rotation depth in our system than we have guys who could become a full time corner IF position player.  

I think I am standing pat right now.  I want to see what Meyer is.  I want to see how Heaney and Trop recover.  I want to see if Richards can stay healthy.  If Shoe can come back and be what he was for most of last year.  I want to see if Albert can walk and if Thaiss continues with appropriate progression.  I want to see if we can get someone serviceable out of Banuelos, Pounders, Campos, or Lamb.  

I don't disagree that Odorizzi would be helpful for at least 2017 but I am more afraid of the lack of opportunity at the corners for the next 2-3 years than I am SP.  

but how does trading cron and possibly perez really upset the apple cart? i'd like to keep cron, as i've said before, but getting a good enough pitcher like odorizzi and hopefully a reliever would pay a big enough dividend immediately that i'd move him. 1b/DH players are plentiful and mlb avg. production can be had relatively cheaply at that position.

i have to say i have no problem with losing nolasco and chavez next year, as i think they're eminently replaceable from year to year. if we went into next year's offseason, before FA, with a potential rotation of richards, shoemaker, skaggs, odorizzi, heany, tropeano, then that's a decent start to a rotation. i don't want to rely on heany and trop to be ready for a full season off tommy john, i want them to take it when they produce.

[totdprods]

8 minutes ago, ukyah said:

but how does trading cron and possibly perez really upset the apple cart? i'd like to keep cron, as i've said before, but getting a good enough pitcher like odorizzi and hopefully a reliever would pay a big enough dividend immediately that i'd move him. 1b/DH players are plentiful and mlb avg. production can be had relatively cheaply at that position.

i have to say i have no problem with losing nolasco and chavez next year, as i think they're eminently replaceable from year to year. if we went into next year's offseason, before FA, with a potential rotation of richards, shoemaker, skaggs, odorizzi, heany, tropeano, then that's a decent start to a rotation. i don't want to rely on heany and trop to be ready for a full season off tommy john, i want them to take it when they produce.

Also worth noting Nolasco has an option. 
I don't expect him to maintain exactly what he did last year or make it through the year without being traded, but if he puts up 30 games started of 3.75 ball, it'd be pretty crazy to decline that option no matter what else happens with our pitching this year.

[Mark68]

19 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Seems a little over optimistic. Cron-plus for Odorizzi. 

That's why I said that...if somehow the Rays ONLY wanted Cron, I'd do it in a heartbeat. But I know it'd be Cron+.

[ukyah]

5 hours ago, totdprods said:

Also worth noting Nolasco has an option. 
I don't expect him to maintain exactly what he did last year or make it through the year without being traded, but if he puts up 30 games started of 3.75 ball, it'd be pretty crazy to decline that option no matter what else happens with our pitching this year.

i'd be shocked if he did that, and if he did, obviously you'd be right.

[ettin]

Two things:

1) Cron's relative value at four years and a ZiPS projected 1.5 WAR/year actually exceeds Odorizzi's value at three years and a ZiPS projected 2.0 WAR/year. The value is relatively close and even if you add in a premium on pitching it really can't exceed Cron's value by so much that a "toss-in" type prospect wouldn't balance out the deal.

2) All of you are looking at the wrong Rays pitcher (at least as far as the Rays are concerned, Eppler may think differently). Alex Cobb is in the last year of his control and the Rays almost certainly want to deal him. He would be much more attainable and runs a career 52% GB%. It would be a perfect situation for Eppler to execute a "two birds, one stone" approach by sending Cron and getting a starter plus ????

There will be an article out on the site shortly about this Cron trade stuff.

 

EDIT: I'll also note that this is a reason why nothing has happened yet with moving C.J. because the Angels likely want to see Cobb in action during ST before they commit to a trade.