Does This Convince Moreno To Allow For A Rebuild?

[Jason]

Just now, Dochalo said:

-spending a ton of FA money

-winning trades like the cubs did in getting Arrieta

-drafting the next paul goldschmidt in the 8th round this june.  

-finding the next JD martinez off waivers.  

Most of that is a crap shoot and draftees won't be helpful during Trout's time here. Hopefully the bad Pujols and Hamilton signings won't stop other big signings from happening.

[Dtwncbad]

Team has to be very aggressive at the trade deadline harvesting as many young bodies as possible.  Trade everyone you can except trout of course.

They should be able to find three or four future regulars if they have they nuts to go large in moving bodies.

[Ohtaniland]

The rebuild is happening already. Arte won't spend anymore money on free agents unless he sees that the current roster has a chance to win. That's not happening anytime soon. The mess that was created by Reagins and Dipoto will linger on for at least five more seasons. Arte will sell the team before its fixed.

Edited May 6, 2016 by CALZONE

[Homebrewer]

Downtowncarlsbad...

Welcome.

Remember you from the old board. I've been over here for a few years now. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

7 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

The rebuild is happening already. Arte won't spend anymore money on free agents unless he sees that the current roster has a chance to win. That's not happening anytime soon. The mess that was created by Reagins and Dipoto will linger on for at least five more seasons. Arte will sell the team before its fixed.

Not spending money does not equal rebuilding.

[Troll Daddy]

Pitchers come and go ... screw the rebuild idea. 

[Oz27]

I've spent most of the past few hours wondering who we can trade, who we should trade and what we can get for those people. Working on the assumption we will be out of contention pretty soon, there are a couple of obvious guys to trade, a few in the 'maybe' pile and then a couple in the 'probably not' camp. The first obvious one is Joe Smith, a free agent at the end of the year. He isn't going to net us a huge haul but a few comparisons of deals we've been done in recent years come to mind. Brian Fuentes got us Loek van Mil, Scott Downs netted Cory Rasmus while when we traded for Joe Thatcher (welp) we gave up Zach Borenstein. While neither Borenstein or Rasmus were top level prospects, if we could get something like that for Smith we would need to take it. The other obvious trade candidate is Soto, who is currently having a nice season and will be a good catching option for a contender. Again we won't get anything for him above a mid level prospect, but it's still worth doing.

Yunel Escobar is then an interesting one, because he is still under club control next year in the form of a quite affordable team option. In the offseason he was only worth Trevor Gott and he probably won't be worth anymore now because his existing issues are still there (namely he's a defensive shambles) but if you can get a Gott equivalent now you probably take it. In the unlikely event CJ Wilson is back healthy before the trade deadline, he is certainly worth moving too but that probably won't happen.

There's then a few more drastic options. Huston Street is under club control for two and a half more seasons and could likely net us a serious haul. We gave up four quite highly regarded prospects to get him a couple of years ago and while most of those have eventuated to not very much, that doesn't mean we wouldn't get several prospects for him. He's probably someone we dangle out there and see what offers we can get, but likely won't trade. The same goes for Kole Calhoun and Hector Santiago. Both are still under club control for a long time to come and hopefully we'll be ready to contend at some point again in that time. So again, you'd listen to offers on both of them but it's quite unlikely you'd move either of them.

I guess all of this is a long-winded way to say there's a couple we definitely should trade and a couple we probably should, all of who unfortunately won't really net us very much. What a time to be alive.

[beatlesrule]

23 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Pitchers come and go ... screw the rebuild idea. 

The offense stinks though.

I think we can get some B level prospects for guys like Escobar, Santiago, Street, Soto, Smith etc.

Edited May 6, 2016 by beatlesrule

[itsKnoppUitsme]

Somebody find a clean peanut STAT!

[eaterfan]

12 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

I've spent most of the past few hours wondering who we can trade, who we should trade and what we can get for those people. Working on the assumption we will be out of contention pretty soon, there are a couple of obvious guys to trade, a few in the 'maybe' pile and then a couple in the 'probably not' camp. The first obvious one is Joe Smith, a free agent at the end of the year. He isn't going to net us a huge haul but a few comparisons of deals we've been done in recent years come to mind. Brian Fuentes got us Loek van Mil, Scott Downs netted Cory Rasmus while when we traded for Joe Thatcher (welp) we gave up Zach Borenstein. While neither Borenstein or Rasmus were top level prospects, if we could get something like that for Smith we would need to take it. The other obvious trade candidate is Soto, who is currently having a nice season and will be a good catching option for a contender. Again we won't get anything for him above a mid level prospect, but it's still worth doing.

Yunel Escobar is then an interesting one, because he is still under club control next year in the form of a quite affordable team option. In the offseason he was only worth Trevor Gott and he probably won't be worth anymore now because his existing issues are still there (namely he's a defensive shambles) but if you can get a Gott equivalent now you probably take it. In the unlikely event CJ Wilson is back healthy before the trade deadline, he is certainly worth moving too but that probably won't happen.

There's then a few more drastic options. Huston Street is under club control for two and a half more seasons and could likely net us a serious haul. We gave up four quite highly regarded prospects to get him a couple of years ago and while most of those have eventuated to not very much, that doesn't mean we wouldn't get several prospects for him. He's probably someone we dangle out there and see what offers we can get, but likely won't trade. The same goes for Kole Calhoun and Hector Santiago. Both are still under club control for a long time to come and hopefully we'll be ready to contend at some point again in that time. So again, you'd listen to offers on both of them but it's quite unlikely you'd move either of them.

I guess all of this is a long-winded way to say there's a couple we definitely should trade and a couple we probably should, all of who unfortunately won't really net us very much. What a time to be alive.

I think we have to trade anything we can get a decent haul for except Trout. It will hurt to see Kalhoun and Santiago go but it's the only real way to get the prospects we need to be competitive while Trout is still with the team.

[AngelsLakersFan]

21 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

I've spent most of the past few hours wondering who we can trade, who we should trade and what we can get for those people. Working on the assumption we will be out of contention pretty soon, there are a couple of obvious guys to trade, a few in the 'maybe' pile and then a couple in the 'probably not' camp. The first obvious one is Joe Smith, a free agent at the end of the year. He isn't going to net us a huge haul but a few comparisons of deals we've been done in recent years come to mind. Brian Fuentes got us Loek van Mil, Scott Downs netted Cory Rasmus while when we traded for Joe Thatcher (welp) we gave up Zach Borenstein. While neither Borenstein or Rasmus were top level prospects, if we could get something like that for Smith we would need to take it. The other obvious trade candidate is Soto, who is currently having a nice season and will be a good catching option for a contender. Again we won't get anything for him above a mid level prospect, but it's still worth doing.

Yunel Escobar is then an interesting one, because he is still under club control next year in the form of a quite affordable team option. In the offseason he was only worth Trevor Gott and he probably won't be worth anymore now because his existing issues are still there (namely he's a defensive shambles) but if you can get a Gott equivalent now you probably take it. In the unlikely event CJ Wilson is back healthy before the trade deadline, he is certainly worth moving too but that probably won't happen.

There's then a few more drastic options. Huston Street is under club control for two and a half more seasons and could likely net us a serious haul. We gave up four quite highly regarded prospects to get him a couple of years ago and while most of those have eventuated to not very much, that doesn't mean we wouldn't get several prospects for him. He's probably someone we dangle out there and see what offers we can get, but likely won't trade. The same goes for Kole Calhoun and Hector Santiago. Both are still under club control for a long time to come and hopefully we'll be ready to contend at some point again in that time. So again, you'd listen to offers on both of them but it's quite unlikely you'd move either of them.

I guess all of this is a long-winded way to say there's a couple we definitely should trade and a couple we probably should, all of who unfortunately won't really net us very much. What a time to be alive.

It's a bad situation because if we are looking at competing in 2 or 3 years then you hold on to Simmons and Calhoun because they will be here along with Trout. Unfortunately all the other guys you mention are not going to bring all that much back in return. 

[ettin]

So a complete rebuild isn't necessary in my mind but a re-tooling of the roster and selling of short-term controllable assets to reset for 2018 is a reality now.

The reality is that Richards (and likely Heaney) will not return until late 2017 and really won't provide effective innings until the 2018 season. This also assumes that both of them, assuming Heaney needs it, return from Tommy John Surgery successfully and there is no guarantee with full recovery as most TMJ surgeries have about an 80% success rate so that means there is only a 64% chance both of them return full and healthy!

Trading Trout is not a logical or sensible option. His value is so tremendous that only one or two teams in the League could even put an appropriate package together and even then it would literally gut that acquiring team of all of their best prospects and young, controllable talent turning them into a pre-2016 Angels squad (and look where that got us).

So where does that leave us now?

We will have a lot of trouble competing now. Our record is below .500 and we have taken a serious blow to our rotation. If the Angels can't put together a strong winning streak and head into the trade deadline within close striking distance of 1st place in the A.L. West or a Wild Card spot they should be sellers.

Fortunately, at this moment in time, we do have some assets to trade. The following is a list of those possible assets assuming their health is good, their performance maintains and/or improves, and, in the case of those players recovering from injuries, current disabled list players return to action and perform in the next two months:

• Hector Santiago
• Kole Calhoun
• Daniel Nava
• Yunel Escobar
• Johnny Giavotella
• Jered Weaver
• C.J. Wilson
• Huston Street
• Joe Smith
• Fernando Salas
• Tyler Skaggs
• Al Alburquerque
• Geovany Soto
• Cliff Pennington
• Craig Gentry
• Shane Robinson

Now to be fair players like Robinson, Gentry, and Alburquerque won't bring back anything of significance if that. Probably cash considerations only.

Additionally Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, along with their bloated 2016 salaries, are unlikely to be traded if they continue to under perform or can't make it back by the end of June. They too would bring back very little. Probably a single low Minors mid-tier prospect or a young reliever in the upper Minors if that.

Beyond that you have other role players like Daniel Nava, Johnny Giavotella, Joe Smith, Fernando Salas, and Cliff Pennington that could bring back a similar return to Weaver or Wilson.

The real returns will be found if the Angels decide to part with one or more of Hector Santiago, Kole Calhoun, Geovany Soto, Yunel Escobar, Huston Street, or possibly Tyler Skaggs if he can show he's recovered from his biceps tendinitis.

To be honest Tyler is a long shot as a trade piece and I think the Angels would rather just hold onto him and let him recover and rebuild his value. That is the 90%+ outcome so let's discard him from the conversation.

Another player that is unlikely to be traded is Kole Calhoun. In the scenario we're presenting here, which is a return to contention in 2018, Calhoun would be in the next to final year of his current controllable years and could contribute to that squad and the 2019 team.

Unless the Angels are overwhelmed by an offer it would not surprise me if the Angels, in their bid to re-tool for a serious run in 2018-2020 (Mike Trout's controllable seasons), offered Kole a 5-6 year extension covering his last three years of arbitration and his first 2-3 years of free agency for something around $65MM-75MM in the off-season. That would be the smart move probably so Kole is a less likely candidate although, surely, teams will inquire.

This leaves Geovany Soto, Yunel Escobar, Hector Santiago, and Huston Street as the four assets the Angels are most likely to sell and can bring back the most in return.

Soto has been on fire this year and a team needing a veteran catcher would certainly have interest. Soto, as a pure rental, would likely bring back one prospect but it could be a nice mid-tier type of player or pitcher so selling high right here would be a very smart thing for Eppler to do.

Yunel, who is controllable for the 2017 season too, would be a great asset to a team that needs a 3B or 2B replacement. This year he's really excelled at the top of the order and could make a real impact to a team in contention. With a total commitment of only about $10MM for the 2nd half of 2016 and all of 2017, Escobar would bring back a very similar return that Howie Kendrick did (Andrew Heaney) which is a young, quality controllable starter or position player.

Santiago has been quite good in 2016 and although he doesn't stand out well using some advanced metrics he does create very uncomfortable at-bats for opposing hitters through a much improved and mature mental and mechanical approach on the mound. Santiago, like Yunel, has one more year of arbitration control and, as a left-handed starter, will bring back a bit more than Escobar would in trade. It would not be surprising to see Hector bring back 1-3 prospects in a trade to a contending team in need of a left-handed starter that plays in a park that contains fly balls well (think teams like the Pirates, Royals, or Rays for instance).

Finally, Huston Street, with one more guaranteed year in 2017 and a team option in 2018, could potentially bring back the greatest return (although not much greater than Hector) with the very recent trend of closer-types being valued so high (as seen over the off-season with Chapman, Giles, Kimbrel, et al). Street is one of the best relievers in baseball over the last few years when it comes to converting high-leverage situations into saves and wins for his team. Huston will likely bring back 1-3 prospects or 2 high quality prospects considering his extra two years of control.

To be clear there is a lot of baseball left to play and the Angels can still turn things around if the offense starts to click and if replacement pitchers like Shoemaker, Smith, Rasmus and possibly even Alvarez (he was a starter before) can step in and bridge the gap. Losing Richards (and basically Heaney even if he doesn't get Tommy John surgery) is a big blow so other team members are really going to have to step it up otherwise the candidates presented above are going to have a lot of trade talk swirling around them in about 2 months time.

Edited May 7, 2016 by ettin
Listed Soto but didn't talk about the type of return he'd bring back

[AngelsLakersFan]

Escobar, Santiago, and Street are the three most valuable assets we have. Unfortunately if you consider what we gave up to get those guys, it wasn't much. 

[California Cajun]

3 hours ago, nando714 said:

Tell me it gets better 

The question isn't if, but when.

[Ohtaniland]

Stradling was right....we should've forked out $180M for that .207 / 0 home run hitting Jason Heyward. 

[Docwaukee]

Arte is sitting on over a billion dollars in equity with zero debt.  The dead weight on this roster is his fault.  The lack of young talent in this org is mostly his fault.  Both of which were a consequence of his involvement of specific player personnel decisions and resource allocation.  He needs to reach into his top drawer, take out his check book and his budget spreadsheet and hand it over to people that know and understand baseball.  It's certainly his choice as to whether that happens and I really can't blame him if he'd rather just hang onto his money, but there is a quicker way out of this mess and it doesn't necessarily require selling off parts.  Granted, it probably will mean that long term, but the next five years is up to Arte and Mrs. Arte.  

[Ohtaniland]

Pretty sure that Mrs. Arte is probably in his ear telling him to stop believing that those high paid free agents are going to make a difference. I think he finally gets it. 

[70runner]

It's depressing to think, no matter what the rebuild/retool/rewhatever scenario, Pujols remains a painful constant.  Were some rebuilding miracle to occur...the Angels acquire some hitters not on their career downside  (along with Trout & Calhoun)...the lineup is still going to have the black hole in the MOTO.

Agree with the suggestion to market Street while he has some value.  He's on the wrong side of 30, losing velocity and evolving into the Weaver of closers.

This team must get younger, faster, and more athletic.   

[Stradling]

7 hours ago, CALZONE said:

Pretty sure that Mrs. Arte is probably in his ear telling him to stop believing that those high paid free agents are going to make a difference. I think he finally gets it. 

The high paid players aren't the ones that just got hurt.  However the reason the team is in a world of hurt is because Arte has ignored the developmental side.  He also didn't sign any reliable arms this off season. 

[Ohtaniland]

The highest paid players are Pujols, Hamilton, Wilson and Weaver. They've all been hurt at some point during 2011-2016. 

[Stradling]

And?  Your beloved Arte is the reason we signed Albert and Josh.  They were older players and one had a horrible track record.  I don't care if Arte spends big money but he should consider building a farm team.  If you aren't going to build a farm team and you expect to contend then you should expect to open up your check book. 

[Waybackman]

Our problems are over! We just set the World Record for selfie sticks! If that's how Arte gets people into the stands, it tells me that having a winning baseball team isn't necessarily the the top priority. Arte Moreno: the new Bill Veeck.

[Ohtaniland]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

And?  Your beloved Arte is the reason we signed Albert and Josh.  They were older players and one had a horrible track record.  I don't care if Arte spends big money but he should consider building a farm team.  If you aren't going to build a farm team and you expect to contend then you should expect to open up your check book. 

Fans will always have high expectations. Arte is cheap.......so then he tried to buy a championship. The pressors were full of fans thanking Arte for Pujols, Hamilton and Wilson. The fans didn't give an F about the farm. We got Albert freaken Pujols. We are going to win multiple championships according posters right here. Remember "We don't rebuild, we retool" ......so now Arte is cheap again. I don't blame him because the players gladly took the money but failed to deliver.

Edited May 7, 2016 by CALZONE

[nando714]

25 minutes ago, Waybackman said:

Our problems are over! We just set the World Record for selfie sticks! If that's how Arte gets people into the stands, it tells me that having a winning baseball team isn't necessarily the the top priority. Arte Moreno: the new Bill Veeck.

Was thinking the same exact thing. I didn't want much of the game after the top of the first. 

[Stradling]

48 minutes ago, CALZONE said:

Fans will always have high expectations. Arte is cheap.......so then he tried to buy a championship. The pressors were full of fans thanking Arte for Pujols, Hamilton and Wilson. The fans didn't give an F about the farm. We got Albert freaken Pujols. We are going to win multiple championships according posters right here. Remember "We don't rebuild, we retool" ......so now Arte is cheap again. I don't blame him because the players gladly to the money but failed to deliver.

What we, the fanatic, thinks should have no bearing on what Arte does.   He should be committed to building a winner, whether that's through free agency or the farm.  But if you completely ignore one, then stop doing the other, well you look incompetent.