Updated BP projections, not pretty

[Homebrewer]

I never looked at the schedule until today..

WOW...that is one f'n tough schedule. From facing the CY Young winner on opening day, we get the NL Central every month and the Dodgers, who are due to finally live up to what they are on paper.

Inter-league play has been kind to the Halos, not looking it up, but we must be quite a few games over .500 the past few seasons, and this might be the year that changes. Cubs-Pit-STL and an improved Milwaukee team are a tough assignment.

 

This is the toughest looking schedule I can remember.

[Homebrewer]

Pitchers and catchers report for physicals Thursday.

LOL

Makes me remember the sports physicals we used to get when I was a kid.

 

"Turn your head and cough"

You're the catcher?

You got a cup?

OK Kid...get your uniform. 

[nando714]

Can't believe the thread is this long and there's no mention of 2002

[Angel Oracle]

Zobrist and Cueto, plus their closer is hurt. I think that is it.

And Cueto was only there for a couple of months or so plus the post-season, and really didn't contribute a lot to their success.

[Homebrewer]

I'm wondering if Maddon wont throw Lackey at the Halos in game 2.

Wouldn't that be just like Joe?

 

Arrietta in the opener, and then Lackey in game 2.

[Jim]

My projection; as of now, our pen is going to make itself most noticeable in the early going, and not in a good way. Can the Angel trust correct the problem before it gets too out of hand?

[Reveille1984]

Worst farm system, projected worst in the division and with one of the highest payrolls in the game... I guess we have Mike Trout still?

 

Our division is probably going to be pretty much a crapshoot in all honestly  though.  Its pretty much the Astros and everybody else.

[Inside Pitch]

So, they are projecting the pitching to get worse from what it was last year by 52 runs, meanwhile they are expecting the offense to improve by 13 runs...  That's scary but the pitching staff is probably the area where we could see the largest amount of variance in either direction.   Skaggs, Richards, Heaney could all impact the pitching in a massive way.   

[Inside Pitch]

Just who have the Royals lost, personnel wise, from the past 2 seasons?

 

They missed on the Royals last year too -- part of the issue is it's nearly impossible to project the impact of defense....   Defense is basically the great unknown in these things and was likely a huge factor in how the Angels had a winning record despite being below average on the mound and offensively.

[stormngt]

Baseball Prospectuc updates it projections for 2016 standings today, and its ugly for us.

Per this article, http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

We are projected in a dead last tie in the division with the A's at 75-87

Nowi get that these are fantasy ratings but still.. do statheads actually know the difference in these projections?

What i did find interesting is that they project the Indians to have the best record in the AL at 92 wins and winning the Central by a whopping 10 games. They also project Tampa to win by three games over Boston with 91 wins. They put the Astros on top in the West with 88 wins over Seattle by 4.

Assuming all this holds up we are looking at Cle, TB, Hou with Bos and Tor fighting for the WC.

In the NL its the Dogs, Cubs, and Mets, with the Giants and Nats in the WC.

Intriguing and horrible all at the same time

Too bad games have to played. There is accurate science to season projections.

[floplag]

Too bad games have to played. There is accurate science to season projections.

 

A concept ive made mention of many times and am well aware as is pretty much everyone on  this board, im simply pointing out the statistical projections and they are bleak. 

Do i think the team is that bad, no , i dont.   But, it would not surprise me if it was either.  I do think our division is better, our interleague schedule is harsh, even our of of division play is tough, the deck is stacked against us on paper and i think these projections are a by-product of that more than whether or not the club is really that bad or better or worse.    

Everyone wants to argue this player that player everyone using stats, but when the stats dont tell them what they want its "well... the games have to be played", kinda funny really. 

[Troll Daddy]

This is great news ... these projections are never right.

[Homebrewer]

am looking forward to cheap stub hub seats :-)

Go to craigslist...save the service charges.

[Ohtaniland]

I'll bet a burrito that we win more than 75 games this coming season. So that is 5 games better than your guess. I do have to warn you I am 1-0 in my Burrito Bets, so accept at your own risk.

Nava loves burritos. 😃

[Stradling]

Nava loves burritos. 😃

So does Cespedes and Ethier. Problem with Nava is I might have to buy a burrito rather get a free burrito. Good news for you is Arte can still afford a burrito after this off-season.

[DailyHalo]

I'm shooting more for something in the 91-93 win range.

[floplag]

I'm shooting more for something in the 91-93 win range.

 

I'm shooting for a hummer from an SI/Victorias model too... i suspect we will both be disappointing. 

[Stradling]

I'm an optimist but I think there is a better chance of a 90 win season than a 75 win season.

[ten ocho recon scout]

I never looked at the schedule until today..

WOW...that is one f'n tough schedule. From facing the CY Young winner on opening day, we get the NL Central every month and the Dodgers, who are due to finally live up to what they are on paper.

Inter-league play has been kind to the Halos, not looking it up, but we must be quite a few games over .500 the past few seasons, and this might be the year that changes. Cubs-Pit-STL and an improved Milwaukee team are a tough assignment.

This is the toughest looking schedule I can remember.

i think the dodgers have taken a step back. Theres one area thats been hurting them the last few years, and they still havent fixed it..

[DailyHalo]

1. Projections are conservative by nature. They'd rather look dumb by you over performing and not by saying you're a World Series lock and then don't do s***.

2. We are better than a 75 win team. If you really think that, then you must be a real joy to be around.

3. IMO, It should be obvious but other than LF, we have an obvious upgrade at almost every position. LF and 2B are the only 2 positions we don't currently have a potential All-star written in. 

4. The Dodgers don't impress me at all and neither do the rest of the teams in the A.L. west.

5. The off season isn't over yet. There's still players to be had and teams looking.

 

The West certainly has become more balanced in these last few years but do any of these teams really scare any of you? No team is going to run away with it and win 100+ but a few will surprise. Many on here seem to think the we're either pushing ourselves off a cliff or up one. It seems like all of our question marks are scrutinized to the utmost by some and with no light on the horizon but the other teams are poised and ready to play, like yesterday. The Mariners replaced B level talent with just as questionable B level talent that they had. The Rangers have a squad but health is going to be an issue for them more than for most teams IMO. Houston had a real shot last year, especially after we gave it up to them and Texas at the end of the season. Houston didn't improve to me and Giles won't matter if their not winning by the 9th. The A's are going to be a tough out though and could win more games than they lose but won't no way do they compete this year. My team standings:

 

1. Angels

2. Rangers

3. Astros

4. A's

5. Mariners

[ukyah]

i think we all know how this is going to end.

 

[Vegas Halo Fan]

I'll bet a burrito that we win more than 75 games this coming season. So that is 5 games better than your guess. I do have to warn you I am 1-0 in my Burrito Bets, so accept at your own risk.

 

Where is the burrito from?

[JAHV76]

If it's from Alberto's that could be the gift that keeps on giving. An original Naugles combo burrito would be good.

[bloodbrother]

1. Projections are conservative by nature. They'd rather look dumb by you over performing and not by saying you're a World Series lock and then don't do s***.

2. We are better than a 75 win team. If you really think that, then you must be a real joy to be around.

3. IMO, It should be obvious but other than LF, we have an obvious upgrade at almost every position. LF and 2B are the only 2 positions we don't currently have a potential All-star written in. 

4. The Dodgers don't impress me at all and neither do the rest of the teams in the A.L. west.

5. The off season isn't over yet. There's still players to be had and teams looking.

 

The West certainly has become more balanced in these last few years but do any of these teams really scare any of you? No team is going to run away with it and win 100+ but a few will surprise. Many on here seem to think the we're either pushing ourselves off a cliff or up one. It seems like all of our question marks are scrutinized to the utmost by some and with no light on the horizon but the other teams are poised and ready to play, like yesterday. The Mariners replaced B level talent with just as questionable B level talent that they had. The Rangers have a squad but health is going to be an issue for them more than for most teams IMO. Houston had a real shot last year, especially after we gave it up to them and Texas at the end of the season. Houston didn't improve to me and Giles won't matter if their not winning by the 9th. The A's are going to be a tough out though and could win more games than they lose but won't no way do they compete this year. My team standings:

 

1. Angels

2. Rangers

3. Astros

4. A's

5. Mariners

 

Some impressive rose colored glasses analysis on things. Do you seriously believe players like Cron, Escobar, and Perez are potential all-star worthy talents? More power to you

 

The West definitely has its question marks but it's obvious(to me, anyway) that Houston is more talented than the rest of the teams in the division. They have more impact level talents on their MLB roster and have a very good farm system with even more high impact talents waiting in the wings

 

 

You say Houston hasn't improved but they're core is a bunch of young talent. We talk about how we havent' seen the best of Trout yet. Well, in that case, fair to expect the Astros young talent like Altuve, Springer, Correa, Keuchel, Giles etc to continue to improve each season as they climb closer to their prime years.

Edited February 17, 2016 by bloodbrother

[Homebrewer]

Another scary thing about Houston is the fact that their minor league system is still stacked and loaded with talent.

The AAA Fresno club won everything there is to win at that level last season.