Updated BP projections, not pretty

[ettin]

i wouldn't worry too much about it.  

 

Last year pecota had the following projected win totals for the 2015 season

 

Boston - 87

Seattle - 87

Astros - 77

Washington - 92

Pirates - 80

Cubs - 82

 

It's gonna be an interesting season.  

 

I haven't seen the Pecota depth charts for the halos, but my guess is that our offense is actually pretty average but they hate our pitching.  In fact, they have us allowing the 2nd most runs in the AL.  And really, the 2016 season truly hinges on the broad range of what our pitching could do.  

 

Frankly, if they are right then it was probably a good idea not to spend any money.  Maybe that's Eppler's theory here.  Until he can be confident that guys like Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, and Tropeano are going to step up, don't add.  It's a dangerous game though because you could miss out on a playoff appearance just like last year.  

 

Sorry but disagree vigorously Doc. We should have spent the money to move us up the Win Curve while we had the chance to do so. Now if we have a good 1st half who are we able to add at the trade deadline? No one because we have the worst farm system on the planet. The money should have been spent on a big name LF and we likely, as the primary culprits, let fear of spending and contract lengths (opt-outs) become roadblocks.

 

The window of contention is closing on us really fast now. If we continue this same charade into next offseason it may completely close on us. Then its selling time and I'm worried we'll fumble a Mike Trout trade (which should only happen right before or in the middle of his 2020 season) and not get the return we should get for him.

 

Man this is one of those days where I'm revisiting my feelings about this offseason. I should get off AW.com.

[Jim]

Man this is one of those days where I'm revisiting my feelings about this offseason. I should get off AW.com.

I agree, it's good to step off and get away from the noise every now and then. Edited February 17, 2016 by Jim

[eaterfan]

Sorry but disagree vigorously Doc. We should have spent the money to move us up the Win Curve while we had the chance to do so. Now if we have a good 1st half who are we able to add at the trade deadline? No one because we have the worst farm system on the planet. The money should have been spent on a big name LF and we likely, as the primary culprits, let fear of spending and contract lengths (opt-outs) become roadblocks.

The window of contention is closing on us really fast now. If we continue this same charade into next offseason it may completely close on us. Then its selling time and I'm worried we'll fumble a Mike Trout trade (which should only happen right before or in the middle of his 2020 season) and not get the return we should get for him.

Man this is one of those days where I'm revisiting my feelings about this offseason. I should get off AW.com.

I think the window for the team built on Trout, Pujols, Wilson, Weaver, Street and Smith has already closed. Nearly all the projection sites agree. Even if the projection systems are off by 5 games (certainly not impossible) we still needed to add 10 wins this offseason for a chance to win the wild card. That's really expensive. It's not just slight upgrades at several positions. It's slight upgrades at several positions and a major upgrade in LF.

It's time to focus on the window with Trout, Simmons, Calhoun, Heaney, Perez, and Skaggs. That window still has awhile until it closes.

If everything breaks right this season maybe we'll still make the playoffs. But if things go as projected then any piece that isn't part of the future can be used to rebuild our young talent pool and help the second window open wider.

[Inside Pitch]

I think the window for the team built on Trout, Pujols, Wilson, Weaver, Street and Smith has already closed. Nearly all the projection sites agree. Even if the projection systems are off by 5 games (certainly not impossible) we still needed to add 10 wins this offseason for a chance to win the wild card. That's really expensive. It's not just slight upgrades at several positions. It's slight upgrades at several positions and a major upgrade in LF.

It's time to focus on the window with Trout, Simmons, Calhoun, Heaney, Perez, and Skaggs. That window still has awhile until it closes.

If everything breaks right this season maybe we'll still make the playoffs. But if things go as projected then any piece that isn't part of the future can be used to rebuild our young talent pool and help the second window open wider.

 

This is IMO one of the more on point views of this team.   

[Brent Maguire]

75 wins seems pretty harsh as that seems like the worst possible outcome, IMO. I think this team should finish in the 80-82 win range just because Mike Trout keeps them in a playoff picture. Last year's team was a true talent 79 win team and I believe the addition of Simmons keeps them right in the .500 area. A few points:

 

-LF won't be nearly as bad just due to positive regression. Even replacement level performance from Gentry/Nava is a huge improvement over last year.

 

-SS is a clear upgrade with Simmons over Aybar. We're looking at a 2-3 WAR upgrade for 2016.

 

-3B is essentially a wash or a slight downgrade with Escobar instead of Freese.

 

-The rotation, while not consisting of high quality starters, is 8 starters deep, which means there's a lot of innings to go around. However, a few injuries puts the team in an uncomfortable spot of resorting to the shithole that is our minor league system. 

 

-The bullpen looks like a very poor group at the moment but, as we all know, bullpens are very volatile. If Morin/Bedrosian take steps forward, it could be a good group. The bullpen could literally be awful, average or good and it wouldn't surprise me. 

 

-Albert Pujols' health/productivity is a huge issue, which I think many may be overlooking. While we all moan about Pujols' under performances as an Angel, his .475+ SLG% and 25+ HR are needed in this lineup next year. If he declines even more, this lineup could be in deep trouble. 

 

With that all said, it's possible that 75 wins is a rational projection IF many things go wrong, just like they did in 2013. However, I'll assume that we'll be right in the middle in terms of luck and be around a true talent .500 team. Also fair to factor in the Scioscia affect as his teams have historically outperformed their pythag record. I'll say they go 81-81.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Angels_Baseball

[zenmaster]

Just think, if we signed a big name LF we would be at 78-79 wins!

[Homebrewer]

Cowart/Kubitza - Perez- Cron are all young, and the potential is there (IMO) for substantial improvement. If 2 of those 4 have breakout seasons at the plate, and injuries don't hamper the veterans too much, the offense should be competitive.

Starting pitching looks decent, but the pen is questionable. Maybe the move from Butcher to Nagy and the addition of some other new coaches will help improve the pen's effectiveness (Scioscia having some new voices in his ear about his bullpen use can't hurt)

[Angel Oracle]

What are the odds on Tossed Salad, Al Al, Bedrock the vast Jr., and Mor-Runs-In stabilizing the 3rd through 6th spots in the pen?

It's got to be pretty big odds.

Meanwhile, Arte is asleep aboard his yacht.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[Ender]

**** projections.

 

I say this as a Mariner fan.

 

Look where we were projected last year. Look what happened. Same with the Nationals.

 

It's all bullshit. Let the game (season) play itself out.

 

 

And why are the Royals projected so low? Did I miss something with them? Are they very different from the team that won the WS going into 2016?

 

 

 

1. Angels

2. Rangers

3. Astros

4. A's

5. Mariners

 

 

There is no way the Mariners are worse than the A's and I honestly do think objectively that the M's have a better team than the Angels this year. 

 

You say the M's replaced B level talent with more B level talent when that just isn't true. I feel we replaced C and D level talent with B level talent. We will actually have defenders in the outfield for the first time in many years.

 

Adam Lind alone is a MASSIVE upgrade over what we got out of 1B last season. Ianetta could have the same season he had last year for you guys and he would have been by far our best catcher. Cano isn't going into the season coming off of a broken foot ... or hopefully dealing with a hernia for the majority of it. Ketel Marte at SS could be a huge surprise to folks also.

 

And now we have starting pitching depth we didn't have previously. Our bullpen is a little shaky though ... but they generally are always prone to volatility. 

 

This team is better as a whole than the one that was projected to win the AL West in 2015.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Ender

[yvangelfan]

I'm ready. It's been a long, cold (for California) winter...

 

 

Go Angels!

[mtangelsfan]

75 Games? LOL  that would be a great season...  I'm thinking we Win no more than 70. 

 

I will bet you $100 that they win more than 70 games.

[DailyHalo]

1. I mean I won't lie, I am an Angel's fan and see nothing but a roster of improved position players, starting pitching that's healthy from the onset and a more prepared and professional looking ball club.
2. I do believe we have a ton of potential all-stars. Your right abut C.J. though, he probably won't be an all-star for a few more years but Perez is a diamond and now. I believe Carlos will take over the reigns from Yadier as the premiere C in the league by 2018. He just looks smooth beyond his years with both the bat and his glove. Even at this point, he seems to already be better than most of the catchers in the American League. This team is full of new faces, so there's a ton of players to keep an eye on but he's going to make a name for himself in this game. That trade was Jerry's best move IMO and gave us considerable talent for the future in both players.
3. He's not young but don't forget about Gomez either. I'm thinking they're going to be more of the second half stros from last year and not the first half juggernaut that came out of LEFT FIELD. They have an amazing core of young talent but that means all of those young kids have to repeat it again. They won't hit a million home runs again and their starting pitching doesn't have the track record to just say they're going to dominate again. A few seasons and some improved pitching and they'll be a perennial contender.
4. I see a lot of what your saying AB but can you explain to me exactly what you think is so great about David Freese?
5. Zenmaster hit it on the head haha and Johnny was dragging this organization down at 2B.
6. The Mariners are an amalgamation of every team in the west. They made a ton of busy bee moves that just spun the tires like Oakland, they're counting on health just as much as Texas, they have a ton of unproven talent like Houston and remarkably are somehow paying more than they should, just like us. I'm obviously being critical of our competition but it won't be some cake walk and see someone run away with it. 100 wins probably won't be possible this year but it's more likely than a 100 lose season from any of us in the west.

Edited February 17, 2016 by DailyHalo

[ettin]

I think the window for the team built on Trout, Pujols, Wilson, Weaver, Street and Smith has already closed. Nearly all the projection sites agree. Even if the projection systems are off by 5 games (certainly not impossible) we still needed to add 10 wins this offseason for a chance to win the wild card. That's really expensive. It's not just slight upgrades at several positions. It's slight upgrades at several positions and a major upgrade in LF.

It's time to focus on the window with Trout, Simmons, Calhoun, Heaney, Perez, and Skaggs. That window still has awhile until it closes.

If everything breaks right this season maybe we'll still make the playoffs. But if things go as projected then any piece that isn't part of the future can be used to rebuild our young talent pool and help the second window open wider.

 

And this was exactly my argument on why we should have gone after Heyward or Upton because they would have complimented that core and would have allowed us to more effectively compete in a tight AL West. With five teams so close a couple of extra wins here and there can tilt it the right way.

[eaterfan]

And this was exactly my argument on why we should have gone after Heyward or Upton because they would have complimented that core and would have allowed us to more effectively compete in a tight AL West. With five teams so close a couple of extra wins here and there can tilt it the right way.

 

I think you are missing my point. This young core isn't enough to overcome the waste that the rest of the team is. We need to surround that new core with better options. A big time LF added to that core probably wouldn't be enough to overcome all the old expensive dead weight. 

 

Realistically the young core I described has a contract window of 5 years and a talent window of about between 7-9. Our goal should be to be on the right track in 2-3 years and competing for a WS in year 5. Without a farm and at the luxury tax threshold we can pretty much only get to our goal through trades. I know we have a lot of money coming off the books in 2 seasons but you can't go over the tax threshold for 3 years in a row without incurring penalties. This means if we are over it this season and next season we can't be over it in 2 years when we need to start being competitive.

 

Also, say we are competitive this season. We lose our chance to trade Smith, Wilson, and Street for pieces that will be valuable in 2-3 years and beyond. Guys like Richards, Calhoun and Santiago lose club control, get more expensive, and lose trade value.

 

I think adding a big LF doesn't put us over the top and into the playoffs let alone a WS favorite. I think it just puts us in a position where we don't know if we are buyers or sellers at the deadline. 

 

Now you can argue had we signed Upton or Heyward they would be part of that young core in 2-3 years and beyond. That is true. Just like with Simmons. The difference is that both those guys make about $10 million more per season and I think a corner outfielder is easier to obtain than a SS. Basically we'd be spending $50 million (and losing a 1st round pick) plus luxury taxes above that for a guy that we doesn't fit in the 2 year plan for 2 years. All the while he is keeping us from spending more money when that window opens.

 

Not going over the tax this year and next year and committing big money well into the future gives this organization so much more flexibility. It could surprise and compete this year with the guys we have but if not it doesn't kill the future and actually lets us build toward that future much faster.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

If it's from Alberto's that could be the gift that keeps on giving. An original Naugles combo burrito would be good.

 

Throw in a bottle of Gaviscon and I'll consider it.

[ettin]

I think you are missing my point. This young core isn't enough to overcome the waste that the rest of the team is. We need to surround that new core with better options. A big time LF added to that core probably wouldn't be enough to overcome all the old expensive dead weight.

Realistically the young core I described has a contract window of 5 years and a talent window of about between 7-9. Our goal should be to be on the right track in 2-3 years and competing for a WS in year 5. Without a farm and at the luxury tax threshold we can pretty much only get to our goal through trades. I know we have a lot of money coming off the books in 2 seasons but you can't go over the tax threshold for 3 years in a row without incurring penalties. This means if we are over it this season and next season we can't be over it in 2 years when we need to start being competitive.

Also, say we are competitive this season. We lose our chance to trade Smith, Wilson, and Street for pieces that will be valuable in 2-3 years and beyond. Guys like Richards, Calhoun and Santiago lose club control, get more expensive, and lose trade value.

I think adding a big LF doesn't put us over the top and into the playoffs let alone a WS favorite. I think it just puts us in a position where we don't know if we are buyers or sellers at the deadline.

Now you can argue had we signed Upton or Heyward they would be part of that young core in 2-3 years and beyond. That is true. Just like with Simmons. The difference is that both those guys make about $10 million more per season and I think a corner outfielder is easier to obtain than a SS. Basically we'd be spending $50 million (and losing a 1st round pick) plus luxury taxes above that for a guy that we doesn't fit in the 2 year plan for 2 years. All the while he is keeping us from spending more money when that window opens.

Not going over the tax this year and next year and committing big money well into the future gives this organization so much more flexibility. It could surprise and compete this year with the guys we have but if not it doesn't kill the future and actually lets us build toward that future much faster.

Alden Gonzalez just tweeted out three different sources of projections for an Angels Win-Loss record. The average was 79-80 wins for 2016.

Adding a 3-5 win LF (i.e. Heyward or Upton) would have moved us up into the 82-85 win range. The Astros, who are favored to win the West, are projected for approximately 88 wins from at least one source I've read. Merely adding a big-ticket LF would have put us within closer striking distance. If we had gone further and signed someone like Zobrist for 2B we'd close the gap further.

Over $40MM comes off the books after this season and an additional $20MM the following year. Financially we'd be running a high payroll but we would have had virtually every position filled for the next 2-3 years.

If we're contending that means we're trying to make the playoffs and not sell off. To be honest someone like Smith or Wilson isn't going to bring back a big haul. Street could bring back more but we signed him longer than the other two currently are and we could always use him the following year as part of the continuing core.

Adding Simmons was a win-now move but it wasn't followed up with anything else. It represents a decision to upgrade long-term at a critical position but is, by itself, not moving the needle enough to move us far enough up the win curve, i.e. he helped us go from a 76-77 win team to a 79-80 win team.

I understand what you are saying eater and don't particularly disagree with what you're saying. Adding Simmons was a more financially sound decision and I think will prove fruitful at some point. The problem I have is that it didn't move the needle enough. Too many things have to go right this year for us to seriously contend. If we had a Heyward or Upton we'd move the needle a lot closer and then there is less pressure for everything to break right and we can absorb a pitcher or player injury successfully.

Also by spending you could add premium talent and still make those small depth additions that the Angels made in December and January. Total team depth would have become a reality for the most part.

Finally in regards to the Luxury Tax it would have only been at worst about a $7MM one time tax and then we'd drop out from under it next year. Yes we would have lost a draft pick (and maybe even a 2nd one if we had continued to buy draft pick attached players like Ian Desmond for example). The 2016 draft class is not particularly good so I'm not sure it would that big of a loss. If we had added in free agency we'd have a core for the next 2-3 years and we could have spent 2017-2020 not spending significantly in free agency and saving our 1st round picks those years.

Perhaps we'll have to agree to disagree but I appreciate the civil conversation.

Edited February 18, 2016 by ettin

[arch stanton]

I don't follow the logic that getting a 25 year old SS who is signed for 5 more years is a win now move.

[Docwaukee]

I think you are missing my point. This young core isn't enough to overcome the waste that the rest of the team is. We need to surround that new core with better options. A big time LF added to that core probably wouldn't be enough to overcome all the old expensive dead weight. 

 

Realistically the young core I described has a contract window of 5 years and a talent window of about between 7-9. Our goal should be to be on the right track in 2-3 years and competing for a WS in year 5. Without a farm and at the luxury tax threshold we can pretty much only get to our goal through trades. I know we have a lot of money coming off the books in 2 seasons but you can't go over the tax threshold for 3 years in a row without incurring penalties. This means if we are over it this season and next season we can't be over it in 2 years when we need to start being competitive.

 

Also, say we are competitive this season. We lose our chance to trade Smith, Wilson, and Street for pieces that will be valuable in 2-3 years and beyond. Guys like Richards, Calhoun and Santiago lose club control, get more expensive, and lose trade value.

 

I think adding a big LF doesn't put us over the top and into the playoffs let alone a WS favorite. I think it just puts us in a position where we don't know if we are buyers or sellers at the deadline. 

 

Now you can argue had we signed Upton or Heyward they would be part of that young core in 2-3 years and beyond. That is true. Just like with Simmons. The difference is that both those guys make about $10 million more per season and I think a corner outfielder is easier to obtain than a SS. Basically we'd be spending $50 million (and losing a 1st round pick) plus luxury taxes above that for a guy that we doesn't fit in the 2 year plan for 2 years. All the while he is keeping us from spending more money when that window opens.

 

Not going over the tax this year and next year and committing big money well into the future gives this organization so much more flexibility. It could surprise and compete this year with the guys we have but if not it doesn't kill the future and actually lets us build toward that future much faster.

 

I don't mean to be a dick, but to do what?  

 

Fill even more holes than we have now to keep us just above average yet not good enough to be a true contender?  

 

We are saving our money for 2018 when Albert is 2 years older, Trout has two less years of control?  On that team are Cowart and Cron All-stars?  Are Bedrosian and Morin the feared 8th/9th inning guys?  

Skaggs, Heaney and Tropeano have all worked out and are fixtures in the rotation?  Is Yarbrough our starting 2bman?  Who's gonna play LF?  

 

Even if half of that stuff happens, do you realize how many holes we still have to fill without one single player in the farm system likely to fill them?  

 

The odds are good that our chances of winning actually decrease over the next five years because of the dearth of org currency.  

 

We have the 5th highest revenue in baseball.   The window isn't going to open any more than it is right now.  

 

In theory, you've actually tried to pry it open even further for the next two years by adding as SS and 3bman now.  If a legit LFer and 2bman isn't going to put us over the top for the next two years and make us legit contenders, then all the money in the world isn't going to change that for 2018 to 2020.  

[ettin]

I don't follow the logic that getting a 25 year old SS who is signed for 5 more years is a win now move.

 

Andrelton Simmons is the best defensive SS in the game. He is a Top 3 SS overall. You don't sign or trade for a player like that if you aren't trying to win. If you are "reconciling" years of spending not only payroll but prospects from your farm to begin a short or long term rebuild you don't spend the organizational currency to acquire a Top 3 SS.

 

Arch if he had been a middle of the road 25 year old SS signed for 5 years I wouldn't be upset because he would not have been expensive to bring in. We could have acquired someone to fill the hole but instead we went out and got the best possible available SS that the trade and free agent markets had to offer. No one else was available that was even remotely close to a Top 10 SS.

 

Let's pose it a different way: Why did we have to get Simmons? We could have kept Aybar and traded him at the deadline. We could have probably traded with the Reds for Suarez or Cosart (sp?). We might have acquired Jose Ramirez from the Indians. We could have signed Alexei Ramirez on a 2-3 year contract. Why get possibly the best SS in the game today? Because you think your team can win now.

[eaterfan]

I don't mean to be a dick, but to do what?  

 

Fill even more holes than we have now to keep us just above average yet not good enough to be a true contender?  

 

We are saving our money for 2018 when Albert is 2 years older, Trout has two less years of control?  On that team are Cowart and Cron All-stars?  Are Bedrosian and Morin the feared 8th/9th inning guys?  

Skaggs, Heaney and Tropeano have all worked out and are fixtures in the rotation?  Is Yarbrough our starting 2bman?  Who's gonna play LF?  

 

Even if half of that stuff happens, do you realize how many holes we still have to fill without one single player in the farm system likely to fill them?  

 

The odds are good that our chances of winning actually decrease over the next five years because of the dearth of org currency.  

 

We have the 5th highest revenue in baseball.   The window isn't going to open any more than it is right now.  

 

In theory, you've actually tried to pry it open even further for the next two years by adding as SS and 3bman now.  If a legit LFer and 2bman isn't going to put us over the top for the next two years and make us legit contenders, then all the money in the world isn't going to change that for 2018 to 2020.  

 

If Trumbo can get us two starting pitchers, Conger can get us a starting pitcher and catcher, and one year of Kendrick can get us 6 years of Heaney then just imagine what we can get before the deadline for Santiago, Wilson, Street, Wiison, Richards, Calhoun could get us. We could be looking at 15 prospects better than anyone in our system and more advanced. 

 

Yes, we'd have holes in the short term. But as those guys become ready in a year or two that would fill out a major league roster. Plus we'd still have Simmons, Trout, Heaney, Perez, Skaggs and a ton of room under the luxury tax thresh hold to supplement with anything we need.

[eaterfan]

Andrelton Simmons is the best defensive SS in the game. He is a Top 3 SS overall. You don't sign or trade for a player like that if you aren't trying to win. If you are "reconciling" years of spending not only payroll but prospects from your farm to begin a short or long term rebuild you don't spend the organizational currency to acquire a Top 3 SS.

 

Arch if he had been a middle of the road 25 year old SS signed for 5 years I wouldn't be upset because he would not have been expensive to bring in. We could have acquired someone to fill the hole but instead we went out and got the best possible available SS that the trade and free agent markets had to offer. No one else was available that was even remotely close to a Top 10 SS.

 

Let's pose it a different way: Why did we have to get Simmons? We could have kept Aybar and traded him at the deadline. We could have probably traded with the Reds for Suarez or Cosart (sp?). We might have acquired Jose Ramirez from the Indians. We could have signed Alexei Ramirez on a 2-3 year contract. Why get possibly the best SS in the game today? Because you think your team can win now.

 

Or you think you won't be able to get a SS near his quality when you are ready to compete again in 2-3 years. Heck even one year.

[ettin]

Or you think you won't be able to get a SS near his quality when you are ready to compete again in 2-3 years. Heck even one year.

 

You mean when Albert is 37-38 years old and producing a.700 OPS? When Richards arbitration price soars to $15-17MM and Calhoun's arbitration price is $13MM (speaking 2 years out from now)?

 

By then we'll likely have to trade one of Richards or Calhoun (probably the former unfortunately). They will bring back some prospects but those prospects will not be MLB ready in all likelihood.

 

The time to strike was now. Arte froze.

[eaterfan]

You mean when Albert is 37-38 years old and producing a.700 OPS? When Richards arbitration price soars to $15-17MM and Calhoun's arbitration price is $13MM (speaking 2 years out from now)?

 

By then we'll likely have to trade one of Richards or Calhoun (probably the former unfortunately). They will bring back some prospects but those prospects will not be MLB ready in all likelihood.

 

The time to strike was now. Arte froze.

 

I'm suggesting we trade them at the deadline. They will likely be able to bring in 2-3 major league ready players each from a team who needs help at the deadline.

 

Yes Albert won't be producing. But he how much less can he really produce? It's not like he's a 5 WAR player anymore. His production is replaceable.

[arch stanton]

Andrelton Simmons is the best defensive SS in the game. He is a Top 3 SS overall. You don't sign or trade for a player like that if you aren't trying to win. If you are "reconciling" years of spending not only payroll but prospects from your farm to begin a short or long term rebuild you don't spend the organizational currency to acquire a Top 3 SS.

 

Arch if he had been a middle of the road 25 year old SS signed for 5 years I wouldn't be upset because he would not have been expensive to bring in. We could have acquired someone to fill the hole but instead we went out and got the best possible available SS that the trade and free agent markets had to offer. No one else was available that was even remotely close to a Top 10 SS.

 

Let's pose it a different way: Why did we have to get Simmons? We could have kept Aybar and traded him at the deadline. We could have probably traded with the Reds for Suarez or Cosart (sp?). We might have acquired Jose Ramirez from the Indians. We could have signed Alexei Ramirez on a 2-3 year contract. Why get possibly the best SS in the game today? Because you think your team can win now.

As far as I'm concerned we can win now. Simmons fills a 650 PA hole in the lineup that was Erick Aybar. It's a good baseball move to get a top 3 SS anytime you can do it. This move filled a hole bigger than any other than LF and one that was going to become a gaping gashing giant canyon in a mere 6 months.

[Docwaukee]

If Trumbo can get us two starting pitchers, Conger can get us a starting pitcher and catcher, and one year of Kendrick can get us 6 years of Heaney then just imagine what we can get before the deadline for Santiago, Wilson, Street, Wiison, Richards, Calhoun could get us. We could be looking at 15 prospects better than anyone in our system and more advanced. 

 

Yes, we'd have holes in the short term. But as those guys become ready in a year or two that would fill out a major league roster. Plus we'd still have Simmons, Trout, Heaney, Perez, Skaggs and a ton of room under the luxury tax thresh hold to supplement with anything we need.

then why did we trade guys who were likely to be part of that new window you are talking about?  

 

plus, if you sign a couple of players to reasonable deals of 2-3 years, then the financial flexibility is still there in the same way it would be now.  

 

we traded Gott for Escboar who is gonna cost us 2/13 when we could have just brought Freese back at 2/13 without giving up a player

 

we moved Newcomb, Ellis and Aybar to have Simmons now.  Two of those players would fit into the new window you are creating.  Players you'd actually be looking to acquire by trading all those other guys you mentioned.  Aybar could also have been used to acquire even more of those players.  Now we have Simmons, but we are essentially wasting two of the 5 years we have him?  

 

But here's the thing.  We aren't going to do what you are talking about.  Arte has already said that we can't rebuild.  We just retool.  The other thing you are assuming - one that many assume - is that the players we acquire for all those assets are going to work out.  That is a dangerous assumption.  Because in 2018, we could be looking down the barrel of a 90 loss season praying that our newly restocked farm system comes along quick enough to start winning again in 2019 and 2020.  And if it takes longer than that, you have essentially wasted your entire window with Trout.

 

We know what we have right now.  Take advantage of it.