Updated BP projections, not pretty

[floplag]

Baseball Prospectuc updates it projections for 2016 standings today, and its ugly for us.

 

Per this article, http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

We are projected in a dead last tie in the division with the A's at 75-87

 

Nowi get that these are fantasy ratings but still.. do statheads actually know the difference in these projections?

 

What i did find interesting is that they project the Indians to have the best record in the AL at 92 wins and winning the Central by a whopping 10 games.  They also project Tampa to win by three games over Boston with 91 wins.  They put the Astros on top in the West with 88 wins over Seattle by 4.

Assuming all this holds up we are looking at Cle, TB, Hou with Bos and Tor fighting for the WC. 

 

In the NL its the Dogs, Cubs, and Mets, with the Giants and Nats in the WC. 

 

Intriguing and horrible all at the same time  

[mota_madness]

75 Games? LOL  that would be a great season...  I'm thinking we Win no more than 70. 

[krAbs]

I have trouble believing we have gotten 15 games worse than last year, considering we had Joyce and the ghost of weaver for most of it.

[Stradling]

75 Games? LOL that would be a great season... I'm thinking we Win no more than 70.

I'll bet a burrito that we win more than 75 games this coming season. So that is 5 games better than your guess. I do have to warn you I am 1-0 in my Burrito Bets, so accept at your own risk.

[ELEVEN]

We replace nothing in LF with lots of nothing in LF. Now we have the ghost of the ghost of Weaver, and haven't a ghost of a chance. 75 seems about right.

[Stradling]

I have trouble believing we have gotten 15 games worse than last year, considering we had Joyce and the ghost of weaver for most of it.

We have a better bench, a better short stop, and better OBP at the top of the line up with Escobar. So no we haven't gotten 15 games worse. That being said we shouldn't have won as many games as we did last year.

[ELEVEN]

I'll bet a burrito that we win more than 75 games this coming season. So that is 5 games better than your guess. I do have to warn you I am 1-0 in my Burrito Bets, so accept at your own risk.

Damn, now I want InO.

[floplag]

I have trouble believing we have gotten 15 games worse than last year, considering we had Joyce and the ghost of weaver for most of it.

 

I dont think its that we have gotten that much worse, but the competition we play this season has gotten better around us and our schedule isnt a walkover by any means.  Seattle got better, even our interleague schedules is pretty brutal.  Even assuming we are the same, we will win fewer games.  15 fewer is a bit harsh though

[Stradling]

I dont think its that we have gotten that much worse, but the competition we play this season has gotten better around us and our schedule isnt a walkover by any means. Seattle got better, even our interleague schedules is pretty brutal. Even assuming we are the same, we will win fewer games. 15 fewer is a bit harsh though

Seattle is the only team that has gotten better in my opinion. Texas has gotten healthier, but is anyone really convinced that Darvish will pitch a full season. If you are then you have to assume that a younger arm like Skaggs will really help the Angels too. Which Choo will show up, the awful one from 2014 or last years version. Houston could be great or they could be what they were after May of last year, which was a team that was under .500 for the final four months of the season. Seattle has to do it before you can claim they are that much better. Not sure if they got better or just have better balance, either way they play us tough regardless.

[Angel Oracle]

I'm guessing low-to-mid 80s wins.    

 

Houston might have the hangover-after-first-post-season-in-years affliction.  

Keuchel is Keuchel.    McHugh figures to be solid again.   

Can McCullers (still only 22) build on his solid 2015 rookie season?     Can Fiers build on his 2015 season?    Can Fister rebound in 2016?

Can the pen duplicate an unexpectedly good 2015 season?

Can the offense do more than just hit HRs?

 

Texas was solid the second half, but they have holes/question marks.  

Will Gallardo re-sign with them?   If not, they are left with Hamels, a Darvish who missed one season, and after that question marks in the rotation.

Can their bullpen duplicate an unexpectedly solid 2015 season?

Can Fielder supply more power than he did in 2015?    Can Choo duplicate his solid 2015 season?   Or revert to his mediocre 2014 season?

 

Seattle is Seattle.    Who knows what they will do in 2016?

The A'th are the A'th.    Competitive, but not ready to climb out of last place yet  

Edited February 16, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[Docwaukee]

i wouldn't worry too much about it.  

 

Last year pecota had the following projected win totals for the 2015 season

 

Boston - 87

Seattle - 87

Astros - 77

Washington - 92

Pirates - 80

Cubs - 82

 

It's gonna be an interesting season.  

 

I haven't seen the Pecota depth charts for the halos, but my guess is that our offense is actually pretty average but they hate our pitching.  In fact, they have us allowing the 2nd most runs in the AL.  And really, the 2016 season truly hinges on the broad range of what our pitching could do.  

 

Frankly, if they are right then it was probably a good idea not to spend any money.  Maybe that's Eppler's theory here.  Until he can be confident that guys like Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, and Tropeano are going to step up, don't add.  It's a dangerous game though because you could miss out on a playoff appearance just like last year.  

[ABC]

1. Alden Gonzalez â€@Alden_Gonzalez  3h3 hours ago

   Projections for the 2016 Angels ...

   FanGraphs: 81-81

   PECOTA: 75-87

   USA Today: 83-79

   20 retweets18 likes

   More

2.  

   Mike DiGiovanna â€@MikeDiGiovanna  5h5 hours ago

   PECOTA down on #Angels, project them to go 76-86 and finish 4th in AL West, but bullish on #Mariners, projected 84-78, 2nd place.

   1 retweet4 likes

   More

3.  

   Bill Shaikin â€@BillShaikin  5h5 hours ago

   PECOTA projects 3 teams at 76-86: #Angels, #Royals, #Marlins.

   5 retweets8 likes

    

[Stradling]

Claude is going to be pumped that the Angels are projected to be as good as the Royals.

In all seriousness just that last one there by Shaikin should basically eliminate PECOTA from being taken seriously, right? Am I missing something?

[ABC]

Claude is going to be pumped that the Angels are projected to be as good as the Royals.

In all seriousness just that last one there by Shaikin should basically eliminate PECOTA from being taken seriously, right? Am I missing something?

 

by Sam Miller

 

Sometime today, or thereabouts, we expect to release all 2016 PECOTA projections. As part of that, there is a Royals team projection. And as part of that, there will be rolling of eyes, because, surprise, it is not a very optimistic projection. So in anticipation of the full PECOTA release...

 

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28457

[Angel Oracle]

Just who have the Royals lost, personnel wise, from the past 2 seasons?

[Stradling]

Zobrist and Cueto, plus their closer is hurt. I think that is it.

[bloodbrother]

USA today projection looks about right to me. 80-84 wins for this team is what I see. Solid 3rd or maybe 4th place in the end. They won't win less than 75 unless they have some big time injuries to one of their only 5 or so good players

[WallyWorld]

One of the great things about baseball is that teams can be, and often are, so much greater - or less - than the sum of their parts. That's what makes these projections a mostly silly exercise.

As for the sum of the Angels parts, none of those projections seem that off to me. But again, wtf knows what will actually happen when real life players play real life baseball. That's why we love the game.

[Make Angels Great Again]

We're better than we were last year, that's for sure, though not by much.

 

The main thing that's now lacking is our pitching depth after having traded away Newcomb and...Ellis? Can't remember the other guys name.

 

It would be quite impressive if we did worse than Joyce in left field.

[Guest]

Damn, now I want InO.

lol. I laugh at this every time. 

[Turd Ferguson]

PECOTA also had KC at 72 wins last season.

 

I'd say 80-85 is realistic.

[mota_madness]

I'll bet a burrito that we win more than 75 games this coming season. So that is 5 games better than your guess. I do have to warn you I am 1-0 in my Burrito Bets, so accept at your own risk.

your on, I like Carne Asda with lots of Guac... 

[Stradling]

your on, I like Carne Asda with lots of Guac...

Cool, I like burritos and I like silly bets like this to make things more interesting.

[mota_madness]

I have trouble believing we have gotten 15 games worse than last year, considering we had Joyce and the ghost of weaver for most of it.

Ah, we still have the GHOST of weaver, and who did we replace joyce with? Daniel James Nava...LOL....   this roster is pretty much an offensive JOKE (no pun intended)  with the exception of TROUT and Calhoun. We'll see i hope i eat my words....

[mota_madness]

Cool, I like burritos and I like silly bets like this to make things more interesting.

Don't forget it's a long season.... Carne Asada..