Thoroughbred Racing

[Homebrewer]

3 hours ago, gotbeer said:

He had a McCraken start.  It was just brutal.  He got hit by a wall of horses being idiots.  Then the idiot jockeys doubled down and hit him a second time.  I'm actually getting really burnt out of the derby and horse racing in general because of that crap.  Stewards being so inconsistent, and in this case ignoring rules and not giving horses a shot.  

They really need to cut the field size in the derby...20 is just too many horses.

[gotbeer]

7 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

They really need to cut the field size in the derby...20 is just too many horses.

I don't mind the size of the field.  You watch international racing, and they have 18-20 horse fields.  But they never go all shitshow at the beginning like at the derby.  They do that shit there, and they are immediately DQ'd, and usually the jockey gets a suspension.  Here, they don't give a shit and only selectively enforce rules.  

I guarantee you, if the stewards state that on start if you interfere with another horse, you will be dq'd and suspended.  No one would be leaving their lanes.

[Tank]

18 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

No, Mendelssohn was dead last..wtf? 

barbaro . . . dead . . . 

[Homebrewer]

On 5/5/2018 at 4:18 PM, gotbeer said:

So triple crown seems possible now. 

Who is going to run against him? The Preakness could be 10 horses or even less. 22 and 45? I thought for sure Smith was taking him too fast.The horse is a freak. If he can do that in the slop, in his 4th time racing, what's next?

It's scary.

[Homebrewer]

Oh...I watched the HO replay and Mendelssohn was completely brutalized.What a shame. 

[gotbeer]

49 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Oh...I watched the HO replay and Mendelssohn was completely brutalized.What a shame. 

Yup.  Hopefully he doesn't go back to Europe.  I think he's probably the one that might challenge Justify in the Belmont.  

[Adam]

Man I really needed Beach Patrol in retrospect. 

Kicking myself. Friday, my best play was the Tri in the oaks. Keyed Wonder Gadot in every spot of tri with 10,13,14. Messed around too much early and didn't have it enough times to make a good weekend. 

[Homebrewer]

For @gotbeer

Monday’s best bets, by Chris Cook

The aggression of Saturday’s Kentucky Derby approached the level of savagery, Aidan O’Brien has said as he reflected on the defeat suffered by his Mendelssohn, who was eased down to finish last. But rather than complain about the interference suffered by his horse in the early stages, the Ballydoyle trainer is now concerned with how he can train a horse to cope with that level of aggression in future and perhaps even show it himself.

Billesdon Brook’s 1,000 Guineas win gives Sean Levey his biggest triumph

 

 

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“In America, dirt racing is very aggressive at the best of times but when the weather goes like that [very wet], the aggression turns into nearly savagery,” said O’Brien, speaking at Newmarket on Sunday. “Because everyone knows if you miss a millimetre at the start, it’s over. So everyone wants to hit the front, everyone wants to make the running. The pressure and the intensity steps up tenfold.

“We never experienced that. We experienced normal dirt racing before and we were prepared for that but we weren’t prepared for the different level of intensity. And obviously when we weren’t prepared, the horse wasn’t prepared. So ultimately the horse and the jockey paid the price for it. But going back next year, we would know a little bit more what to prepare and how to prepare. It’s learning from your failures.”

Mendelssohn was knocked sideways by a rival about two strides into Saturday’s race and O’Brien feels the horse’s chance was lost immediately. “It was over from the gate. At the gate, he was wiped out. And then he went to the bend and got wiped again.”

But O’Brien accepts that his horse did not break as fast as he wanted and this is one of several things he plans to work on with future runners in the US. “It’s like all sport, it’s competitive. If you don’t get to the ball first, the fella besides you gets there. And if you have to stand on his foot on the way to the ball, that’s the way it is.

“Our thing is, always do our very best in a 100% straight way and then accept the result. And if anything else happens, we always say that nothing is ever on purpose, everything is always accidental. Because if you start thinking different than that, there’s no way forward. You try moving to a way that it mightn’t happen again and learn from it. That’s the way life is.

The Recap: sign up for the best of the Guardian's sport coverage

 

 

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“We obviously have to be more aggressive from the gates. And those [US-trained] horses that are on that road are taught that way from day one and the aggression becomes an impulse after a while, they don’t even think about.” It is, O’Brien noted, a very different culture to European flat racing, in which the aim is usually to teach a horse to settle through the early stages.

 

[Homebrewer]

Justify will be at the Preakness, but he’ll have a mostly new set of challengers.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2018/05/07/justify-will-be-at-the-preakness-but-hell-have-a-mostly-new-set-of-challengers/?utm_term=.296386e7e3ec

[Adam]

Yeah the derby field was loaded with talent. Different surface, better break for some, tactics for others and it could have been a different story. Too many went too fast, too early. It was a slow final time. 

Quip could present a decent pace challenge for Justify especially, if he moves forward after his last race. That said, I doubt there's going to be any talent in there to pick up the pieces. Pretty sure Dallas Stewart will send Givemeaminute who will finish second. 

[Adam]

Just saw Quip is owned by Winstar. They're not going to run him against Justify

[gotbeer]

FYI.  Saxon Warrior, who is himself a monster of a horse, won the 2000 Guineas on Saturday as well to get the first leg of the British triple crown.  Weird ass race.  1 mile, no turns.   Mendelsson should have gone there.  It would have made for an interesting race.  

[mrwicked]

Watched it in Vegas, won on the trifecta. 

Would have won the superfecta if that POS instilled regard didn't beat out my boy jack.

Oh well.

Dafuq Mendelssohn?

[Adam]

Preakness Field

 

This race, and two days of racing at Pimlico is really a major buzzkill, especially when you consider the weather forecast - 100% chance of rain on Friday, 80% on Saturday. Probably better off playing Belmont and Mountaineer

[Tank]

$2500 on quip.

[Adam]

12 hours ago, Tank said:

$2500 on quip.

You'd be better off using that $2500 to buy stock in Tivo

[Tank]

6 hours ago, Adam said:

You'd be better off using that $2500 to buy stock in Tivo

i can always count on your for solid advice. thanks, need to go call my broker.

[Angel Oracle]

Assuming Preakness is a victory, how does Justify look for a long track like at the Belmont Stakes?

[gotbeer]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Assuming Preakness is a victory, how does Justify look for a long track like at the Belmont Stakes?

I think he'll have to earn the Belmont Stakes.  Hopefully the right shooters go in.  Then it'll make the Belmont interesting.  Mendelsson, Audible, Bolt D'Oro, even My Boy Jack, Vinno Rosso, Hoffburg, and Lone Sailor.  But if it's like Preakness, then he has it wrapped up.

[Tank]

i'm telling ya, it's gonna be all about Quip.

[Homebrewer]

Justify should win for fun, and there's no money to be made from a horseplayers perspective. In an 8 horse field, even the trifecta offers little value.

My plan today was to play the late P4, but the crappy weather (and uncertainty of the turf course) has me backing off of that now. I'll watch the race and save my wagering fund for Belmont day.

[Homebrewer]

That was a hell of a horse race...very exciting.

[gotbeer]

Missed it.  But watching the replay on the race.  I don't think Justify can take the Belmont.  

[Tank]

"Even the fog can't stop him!"

well, you know you've got a hell of a horse if he can't be slowed down by  . . .  fog.

[Adam]

The camera angles on that race sucked. Anyway, justify looks gassed. Can't wait to play against him in The Belmont.