Thoroughbred Racing

[Adam]

I definitely have the derby winner in there

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Adam said:

I definitely have the derby winner in there

which one of those is bolt d'oro?

[Homebrewer]

Easy weekend for me this year, as I see the derby being a 2 horse race.  The amount of my  7-14 exacta box and the trifecta wagers will be dictated, as always, by the tote, come race time..  Oaks -Derby DD (below).

Good luck everyone !!

Track Name:	KY Oaks Derby Double (CHO)
Race:	1
Pool:	DB
Selections:	4, 7, 10, 13/7, 14
Wager Amount:	$3.00
Wager Total:	$24

[gotbeer]

2 hours ago, Homebrewer said:

Easy weekend for me this year, as I see the derby being a 2 horse race.  The amount of my  7-14 exacta box and the trifecta wagers will be dictated, as always, by the tote, come race time..  Oaks -Derby DD (below).

Good luck everyone !!

Track Name:	KY Oaks Derby Double (CHO)
Race:	1
Pool:	DB
Selections:	4, 7, 10, 13/7, 14
Wager Amount:	$3.00
Wager Total:	$24

As I told Adam.  You got zero chance.  I like Justify and Mendelsson also.  So it's almost as bad as Tank saying he likes a horse.  

[Homebrewer]

13 minutes ago, gotbeer said:

As I told Adam.  You got zero chance.  I like Justify and Mendelsson also.  So it's almost as bad as Tank saying he likes a horse.  

Chalk has won 5 straight, and I really think Justify will need to trip and fall to be beaten tomorrow. (find video of his work at SA last week)

Mendelsson has shown he can run anywhere (including the US) and only needs a decent, patient, ride to be right there turning into the lane. Obrien wants one of these bad, and I think he and Moore will have a solid strategy to go with one-bad-ass-horse. (check the video of his showman antics when they took him out on the Churchill track yesterday)

 I doubt he catches Justify but I'm confident he'll be a "well clear" second. I'll be on the exacta both ways, but heavier on the Justify side. People are shying away from that combo because Mendelsson will be second in the betting, but with the 20 horse field it's still going to pay $40-50, and I'll take that all day long.

Stick to your guns and load up on it.

[Tank]

1 hour ago, gotbeer said:

As I told Adam.  You got zero chance.  I like Justify and Mendelsson also.  So it's almost as bad as Tank saying he likes a horse.  

that's awesome. i mean, hey, wait a minute! grr!

[gotbeer]

26 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Chalk has won 5 straight, and I really think Justify will need to trip and fall to be beaten tomorrow. (find video of his work at SA last week)

Mendelsson has shown he can run anywhere (including the US) and only needs a decent, patient, ride to be right there turning into the lane. Obrien wants one of these bad, and I think he and Moore will have a solid strategy to go with one-bad-ass-horse. (check the video of his showman antics when they took him out on the Churchill track yesterday)

 I doubt he catches Justify but I'm confident he'll be a "well clear" second. I'll be on the exacta both ways, but heavier on the Justify side. People are shying away from that combo because Mendelsson will be second in the betting, but with the 20 horse field it's still going to pay $40-50, and I'll take that all day long.

Stick to your guns and load up on it.

While I agree with what you are saying.  Since I do like those two horse.  Another horse to look out for Bolt D'Oro.  

But this is what probably makes the Derby so intriguing.  20 horse field.  You could have a wiseguy like Tanks Irish War Cry wipe out McCraken and a few other horses at the start.  I think Bolt, Medlesson, and Justify really want to be near if not in the lead going into the frist turn, but that start can really do them in.  

And because of that, I had Audible as my fourth horse to win it.  If the speed gets wiped out, or they get into a speed duel.  IMO Audible is the closer that could pick up the pieces.  

[Homebrewer]

Of course anything can happen, but if you aren't going to take a stand, there are SO many ways to go in these big races it tends to drain the bankroll if you try to cover all of the "maybes". If Justify hadn't drawn such a great post I'd be looking at other horses (and there are plenty of them) but he did and I'm not. I learned a lesson with Arrogate and West Coast..if Baffert doesn't think his star is ready, he won't run them in these races..and if he thinks his star is ready, that's all I need to be convinced he is.  I'm not a big Baffert fan, but I have learned not to ignore him with talent the caliber of Justify. It all sets up for another Arrogate type of win.

Mendelsson's post is also good. Outside in the main gate leaves more room to maneuver than any other spot....and he won't be intimidated by the big crowds as he's seen it all before. Just another day at the office for him.

Talent and experience... 1-2. I'm not going to thin out my bets by covering all the possibilities this time, I'm going all in with my best instincts and keeping it simple.

[Homebrewer]

So NBC has brought back all of their Olympic gayness for these two days of horse racing?

Dear God, give me a break.

[Lou]

I was just going to comment on the gayness. 

Seriously, why? 

[Lou]

So, should I just throw out Monomy Girl? 

[Homebrewer]

6 minutes ago, Lou said:

So, should I just throw out Monomy Girl? 

I did. Mostly because of the post...and I need a price for the double (although it looks like 10 will be the favorite anyhow, but I just threw him in to cover since of the 2 favorites I liked her better) 

[Lou]

1,2,4,7  

[Lou]

10 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

I did. Mostly because of the post...and I need a price for the double (although it looks like 10 will be the favorite anyhow, but I just threw him in to cover since of the 2 favorites I liked her better) 

I agree 

[Homebrewer]

See? I told ya.

Wait..

[Lou]

That's a beautiful horse. 

[Homebrewer]

6 minutes ago, Lou said:

That's a beautiful horse. 

Absolutely..took $24 of my bank for tomorrow though..

[Lou]

11 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

Absolutely..took $24 of my bank for tomorrow though..

just cut out food.

that's gambling money! 

[Homebrewer]

23 minutes ago, Lou said:

just cut out food.

that's gambling money! 

I'm already using the money I set aside for my Oregon fishing license, to bet these races. (they don't consider you a resident until you've been here 6 months) Non resident, with salmon and crab, is going to set me back $200. I'm counting on Justify to make me enough to cover that.

Trout opener is May22.

Livin on the edge, baby.

[mrwicked]

I am at Amex Centurion lounge at SFO now, headed to Vegas.

Trying to lay out my bets, this race is wide open!

[Lou]

9 minutes ago, Homebrewer said:

I'm already using the money I set aside for my Oregon fishing license, to bet these races. (they don't consider you a resident until you've been here 6 months) Non resident, with salmon and crab, is going to set me back $200. I'm counting on Justify to make me enough to cover that.

Trout opener is May22.

Livin on the edge, baby.

No Albertson's, eh? 

[Homebrewer]

6 minutes ago, Lou said:

No Albertson's, eh? 

After 8 years in the mountains, I'm back living a block from the beach. Spent the last month getting my fishing gear cleaned and oiled..nope, no grocery store fish for me. The plan is to fill the chest freezer before the summer is over.

[Lou]

Serious question:

who are you running from? 

[Homebrewer]

I figured out my trifecta bet..

Bet Confirmation

Track Name:	KY Derby Advance (CHS)
Race:	12
Pool:	TRI
Selections:	7/5, 6, 14/2, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 14
Wager Amount:	$2.00
Wager Total:	$36

[Homebrewer]

29 minutes ago, Lou said:

Serious question:

who are you running from? 

California Wildfires. I was evacuated twice last year,  that was enough for me.