One AL Official predicts Angels will sign Scherzer

[Jeff Fletcher]

Just chiming in to say the idea that Jered Weaver would be upset if another pitcher got paid more than him is ludicrous.

[Angel Oracle]

One does wonder how long Scherzer and "not big game" James Shields will stay unsigned.

[Spirit]

Just chiming in to say the idea that Jered Weaver would be upset if another pitcher got paid more than him is ludicrous.

 

 

 

[arch stanton]

One does wonder how long Scherzer and "not big game" James Shields will stay unsigned.

Now that it's been reported that Kuroda and Maeda will both be in Japan this year I think Shields goes pretty quickly. Bora$ will hold Scherzer out until he gets his 7th year with an opt out and that won't come until Ilitch forces Dombrowski to do it. 

[Blarg]

I like this stat for weaver.  WPA is straight up what went down

 

this is the last 5 years.  

 

  http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2014&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

2014 he ranked 20th in all of baseball.  

 

Stats are kinda funny sometimes. For the same 5 year period Weaver is ranked third (3.64) in Clutch (Clutch = (WPA / pLI) – WPA/LI ) which is basically measuring how much better a pitcher performs in high leverage situations. We've all seen Weaver pitch out of jams so this isn't a shock.

 

What may shock everyone is out of the multitudes of pitchers out there Joe Saunders is ranked second (3.82) in Clutch, Aaron Harang first (3.93). Both have a negative WPA and not even borderline they are just as bad (-3.12, -.375 respectively) as they are Clutch/Lucky.

 

Resorting the stack again for WPA and the leader Clayton Kershaw (who has a roller coaster post season pitching record) has a negative Clutch rating (-0.98). In case you are wondering, Verlander is a Clutch catastrophe (-4.04) with $140 million left on his contract.

 

So in the World Series, where all the chips are on the line it looks like the smart money is on Weaver to win you that game 7. If only the Angels could get him on the mound for that.

[Oz27]

I don't think he would have gotten 7/$140M but maybe 6/$120M, but the irony here is that given his substantial decline his actual contract of 5/$85M is no longer looking like anything more than paying a veteran market value. When that contract was signed he was a legit #1, coming off his two best years (2010-11). But since then he has declined each year and is now no more than a #3 starter (aside from heart, of course). Actually, I think you can make an argument that--based upon performance only*--Weaver won't perform to his contract.

 

(*Don't get your panties in a wad, folks - I'm talking performance only)

Working on the idea that 1 WAR is worth about $6 mil, he's provided value of $64.2mil over the three seasons of the contract so far. I still fancy him as a 2.5 WAR pitcher next year and 1.5-2 in the final year of the deal, so it's pretty likely he does perform to the contract.

 

It's not so much the dollar value that was the saving grace with the Weaver deal, more the fact we were able to keep it to five years. At seven that contract would look horrendous and at six it'd be much longer than would be comfortable too.

Edited December 27, 2014 by Oz27

[wopphil]

Weaver will absolutely be worth his deal, even if he is a 95 ERA+ pitcher from here on out.

[beatlesrule]

I'm struggling to figure out why people think he is worth 180 million plus.  Is it because he had a good last 2 years?  I don't see what all the fuss is about.  He's not an elite ace like Kershaw or King Felix etc.  He has not dominated his entire career. Why does he deserve so much money?

[Sherlock31]

I'm struggling to figure out why people think he is worth 180 million plus.  Is it because he had a good last 2 years?  I don't see what all the fuss is about.  He's not an elite ace like Kershaw or King Felix etc.  He has not dominated his entire career. Why does he deserve so much money?

Only Scott Boras thinks that way.

[Jim]

I wouldn't mind having Mad Max on the mound for us next year, and I don't see Arte having a huge problem going over the luxury tax if that's what brings us a division title. Moreover, I don't see CJ returning to even a fraction of his former self next year and will probably be the starting rotation train wreck he was last year. However, I don't see Dipoto bending to the demands of Max's agent. He's just not that good. Though stranger things have happened.  

[eligrba]

I am on the fence with Scherzer. It would be helpful to add an established pitcher to the rotation that could provide some consistent performances. You never know if someone is worth the money until the contract is finished.

[HaloFan85]

There's know way I'd pay the kind of money and years it's going to require to Max or any other 30 year old pitcher, no matter how well he pitched the last few seasons.

[Ohtaniland]

I would rather give him 2 years $60 million than give him 7 years $175 million. 

 

Pass please!

[beatlesrule]

If an incentive based contract would be acceptable, I wouldn't mind something like 5/150 with options for a 6th and 7th year heavily based on performance that could put the deal near 200 million.  I doubt Boras allows his clients those kinds of contracts though.