Stock Market: The Thread

[fan_since79]

Market started up today and then reversed and is headed down, down, down.

Watching the S&P to see if it breaks below 3,854. That's a bear market, down 20% from January 4th's all-time high. It has been tested a couple times this week but held. At 3,875 right now.

 

[Jay]

1 hour ago, fan_since79 said:

Market started up today and then reversed and is headed down, down, down.

Watching the S&P to see if it breaks below 3,854. That's a bear market, down 20% from January 4th's all-time high. It has been tested a couple times this week but held. At 3,875 right now.

 

If 3850 doesn't hold we could be looking at 3200.

[Jay]

Well it held 3850 for about 30 minutes...

[AngelsLakersFan]

On 5/18/2022 at 6:48 AM, fan_since79 said:

Target badly misses earnings estimates and the stock drops 25%. Other retailers are getting hammered also.

"Supply chain costs". Of course. Fuel costs have soared 100% since last year. What did they expect?

The troubling thing is they have no good news to report going forward. We're going to see an unraveling of this bloated stock market across the board, in my opinion. 

It's all so disconnected from reality that who really knows where it will go. A bad earnings report is a bad earnings report, but a 25% drop is nuts. Yes the market is bloated, but that's because everyone has a lot of money saved up right now, and that money has to go somewhere.

The last quarter has been really rough on supply chains but these companies will figure it out as they adjust their focus from filling customer demand to managing transportation costs. Maybe the market still tanks, but that will have more to do with market sentiment than economic reality IMO.

[Jay]

The 25% drop for TGT is partially about the earnings miss but also expectations of future performance because of supply chain, labor costs, etc.

 

[Jay]

Pretty impressive rally by the S&P on Friday afternoon to get back to 3900.

Monday should be interesting.

[AngelsLakersFan]

39 minutes ago, Jay said:

The 25% drop for TGT is partially about the earnings miss but also expectations of future performance because of supply chain, labor costs, etc.

 

Right. My point is more that, these are things that can work themselves out. The past year was about record profits and consumer spending due to full bank accounts, this year is going to be about inflation and cost reduction. It's a transition back into the focus areas of pre-pandemic. There is risk, and there are pains associated with it, but rationally (which I did state is not necessarily important) these companies should be able to maintain pre-covid levels of profitability. If there have been expectations beyond that then that is where the stock prices would reasonably correct.

[Jay]

2 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

My point is more that, these are things that can work themselves out.

Agree, things will work out. In terms of the stock market it's a question of how much pain can you endure.

[Slegnaac]

Looks like a good time to convert some Traditional IRA money to Roth IRA.

[Jay]

On 5/21/2022 at 5:09 PM, Slegnaac said:

Looks like a good time to convert some Traditional IRA money to Roth IRA.

Why so? To avoid the RMDs?

[Slegnaac]

2 hours ago, Jay said:

Why so? To avoid the RMDs?

Yes, which could trigger you to be taxed higher on your Social Security and increase your Medicare payment. 

Assuming both of those exist when you have RMD requirements. 

[Lhalo]

Next week should be interesting. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-seen-extending-steep-rate-144215947.html

[Lhalo]

On 6/11/2022 at 7:38 AM, Lhalo said:

Next week should be interesting. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-seen-extending-steep-rate-144215947.html

Oof. The week isn't starting out too well.

DJIA -876.05 (-2.79%)

S&P -151.23 (-3.88%)

NASDAQ -530.80 (-4.68%)

[Lhalo]

Wall Street now expects a 75bps rate raise instead of the 50bps that the Fed had telegraphed. The CPI last week spooked the shit out of everyone.

[Tank]

1 hour ago, Lhalo said:

Wall Street now expects a 75bps rate raise instead of the 50bps that the Fed had telegraphed. The CPI last week spooked the shit out of everyone.

what does this mean in layman's terms?

[Lhalo]

4 minutes ago, Tank said:

what does this mean in layman's terms?

Inflation is growing at a faster rate than expected so the Federal Reserve is going to raise the Federal Funds Rate to try and tame it. This means that the housing market will substantially slow down due to higher mortgage rates and other things like Treasury yields and credit card rates will increase as well.

[Slegnaac]

No more cheap debt

[Taylor]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

what does this mean in layman's terms?

[gotbeer]

2 hours ago, Tank said:

what does this mean in layman's terms?

Your credit card interest rates are about to go up.  Because things were affordable anyways.  

[Tank]

5 hours ago, gotbeer said:

Your credit card interest rates are about to go up.  Because things were affordable anyways.  

That's a surprise to hear because our president just said that this has been a time of unprecedented growth, that families are saving more these days.

i think one of you is lying.

[Catwhoshatinthehat]

Perhaps he meant unprecedented growth in inflation and that US families are saving at the lowest rate since 2008. 

A lot of talk is US stock indices have another 10-20% to decline.  Crypto has gotten crushed which has me interested in BTC/ETH as a lottery ticket but sentiment is it has further to fall and I don’t know if I’ll have the risk appetite for it. Rising mortgage rates and reportedly the lowest number of mortgage applications in 22 years seem to point to a correction in housing but time will tell and every market is different. Locally there’s more houses on the market and it seems like a lot are having price drops.  

[Lhalo]

10 hours ago, Catwhoshatinthehat said:

Locally there’s more houses on the market and it seems like a lot are having price drops.

I'm noticing that in my area as well.

[gotbeer]

12 hours ago, Tank said:

That's a surprise to hear because our president just said that this has been a time of unprecedented growth, that families are saving more these days.

i think one of you is lying.

[Jason]

Fed announces three quarters percentage-point rate hike to control inflation (msn.com)

[Brandon]

I get a bunch of housing data and analytics, but no one cared about it so I stopped posting it regarding trends and where the market is at and headed.

All that free government Covid money has a consequence.