Official: Garza to Brewers

[vlad27]

No way Blanton is in the starting rotation.

we are one injury away from that reality

[Stradling]

He will come close to being 2-14 with a 6+ ERA?

[Jim]

He will come close to being 2-14 with a 6+ ERA?

Only if we sign him

[Halos of Anaheim]

We now automatically assume every free agent pitcher that isn't a bonafide ace is Joe Blanton. Not just Joe Blanton, but 2013 version of Joe Blanton.

Not really. If you actually checked out most of these guys stats (especially the ones who had ERA's north of 4.5 in the NL) you would see that predicting all these 1-2 year flyer type guys to be Blanton-lite for us isn't that insane.

[Stradling]

So when people say that Arroyo will be Blanton and Arroyo had an ERA of 3.80 last year then they are delusional, in a bad way?

[Jim]

Haha... Delusional? Maybe.

 

I just really don't like the current list of pitchers left on the FA market. That said, if we are not able to trade for a decent starter by early Feb, and I pray Dipoto is doing his very best to make that happen, then I would say, of the list of available starters Arroyo would be are next best option. It’s obvious we need another SP in order to be somewhat considered a contender this season and more than anyone else on the list, he has the best chances of fitting our needs. 

[tdawg87]

I don't really want Arroyo, but the comparisons to Blanton are a little ridiculous IMO. Blanton doesn't set the bar for disappointment. He was so bad in 2013 it was pretty much an anomaly. Blanton never pitched 9 straight years with 199+ IP, he also hadn't had an above 100 ERA+ since 2009 whereas Arroyo has done it 3 times in that span. They aren't really comparable in any way, other than the whole NL to AL thing which gets blown WAY out of proportion here.

[SoWhat]

Someone here posted a comparison of Blanton and Arroyo's peripherals and they were almost the exact same thing. I'd stay FAR away from him

[Stradling]

I'd like to see the stats side by side.

[SoWhat]

I'd like to see the stats side by side.

Try to guess which of these players is Joe Blanton, and which is Bronson Arroyo. These are career numbers

Player A / Player B

k/9 6.24 / 5.84

bb/9 2.37 / 2.46

whip 1.36 / 1.29

BABIP .274 / .260

LOB % 70.5 / 72.3

LD% 20.4 / 19.8

GB% 44.2 / 40.6

HR/FB% 11.0 / 10.9

ERA 4.51 / 4.19

FIP 4.23 / 4.54

Arroyo is 3 years older.

[KevinStockerIsGod]

Comparison:  Blanton to Arroyo, last 5 years: ERA, IP, ERA+, WHIP

 

Blanton: 2009: 4.05, 195.1, 104, 1.316

              2010: 4.82, 175.2, 85, 1.417

              2011: 5.01, 41, 77, 1.476

              2012: 4.71, 191, 84, 1.262

              2013: 6.04, 132.2, 62, 1.613

 

Arroyo:  2009: 3.84, 220.1, 110, 1.266

             2010: 3.88, 215.2, 105, 1.145

             2011: 5.07, 199, 78, 1.367

             2012: 3.74, 202, 110, 1.208

             2013: 3.79, 202, 101, 1.153

 

I think this shows Arroyo is a much better pitcher than Blanton.  He had a poor 2011, but the last 2 seasons were similar and numbers of a #3 starter.  Arroyo's career numbers seem closer to Blanton's because of 2 really bad seasons with Pittsburgh at the beginning of his career.  Over the last 5 years, they are different pitchers.

Edited January 24, 2014 by KevinStockerIsGod

[KevinStockerIsGod]

Also, Arroyo has pitched in 2 postseason games the last 4 years: 1 ER in 12.1 Innings.

[ukyah]

arroyo's looking like a good investment on a 2 year deal for 6-7 million per.

 

i say two, because most guys don't like one year deals. if you could get him for one and an option, then that would be ideal.

 

i'd like the angels to save now and go for a sherzer or homer bailey next year. sherzer has already arrived, but bailey's on the upswing.

Edited January 24, 2014 by ukyah

[Brent Maguire]

At this point, I could possibly be ok with Arroyo on a 1 year deal. A multi year deal would be foolish though.

If he provided 200 innings of a 4.25 ish ERA, that wouldn't be too bad.

[SoWhat]

I think Bailey is the most likely out of next years FA's. Scherzer has already said he'd like to get an extension done during ST. Same with Lester, who said he'd take a discount to stay in Boston. The only two elite pitchers that'll hit the market will be Bailey and Shields. I'd sign someone like Capuano or Hammel to a one year deal and wait til next offseason to sign Bailey

[AngelsLakersFan]

We now automatically assume every free agent pitcher that isn't a bonafide ace is Joe Blanton. Not just Joe Blanton, but 2013 version of Joe Blanton.

 

I'm pretty sure some here were saying Tanaka was a potential Blanton as well... We're like an abused woman!

[Docwaukee]

Blanton's performance was such a big deal last year because of several additional factors. 

 

Weaver and Vargas getting hurt. 

Very little depth

An arguably similar performance from Tommy Hanson. 

 

In a reasonable year, Blanton sucks and every else does ok enough to the point where Richards takes Blanton's spot in the rotation and then Williams has to make some spot starts. 

 

That's where the shell shock comes from.  If we need 60 starts again from our 'depth', we are screwed anyway. 

 

I am not always concerned with a league switch, but some guys don't seem geared to be able to make the transition easily.  Arroyo is one of them.  That said, it is true that Blanton's season was so unusual in such a bad way that it would be hard for anyone to duplicate.  Plus, if you add him and he struggles, you still have one of Skaggs or Santiago.  If someone else get's hurt, you are back to Blanton, Mulder or Shoemaker. 

 

Adding Arroyo probably makes us better even though I'm not a huge fan. 

[ukyah]

his era of 4.19 in the AL over three years is exactly the same as his era over his 11 years in the NL. how is he not geared for a transition?

Edited January 25, 2014 by ukyah

[ukyah]

Arroyo has 41 quality starts over the last two seasons, and just two less (22) than Phillies ace Cliff Lee had in 2013.

What’s even more confusing, he’s been asking for a reasonable two year agreement in the $20-$25 million range all offseason.

 

found this also.

[jshep]

That's a pretty compelling argument against using quality starts.

[Brent Maguire]

That's a pretty compelling argument against using quality starts.

Especially when it puts him in the same category as Cliff Lee.

 

The definition of quality starts needs to be changed a little bit for me to value it. 

[tdawg87]

2 ER in 6 IP

[Hollyw00d]

Blanton will start at least one game in 2014, I hope you all are ready for that

[Hollyw00d]

Especially when it puts him in the same category as Cliff Lee.

The definition of quality starts needs to be changed a little bit for me to value it.

teams win 70% of the games when they get a quality start.

its a valid stat

[Hollyw00d]

Also, Arroyo has pitched in 2 postseason games the last 4 years: 1 ER in 12.1 Innings.

sample size