Tanaka or Garza?

[Second Base]

Tanaka.  Three years from now, Weav will likely be done and Wilson will be reaching the sunset of his career.  Normally, such a development would frighten me, but if we have Tanaka, Richards and Santiago in their late twenties and Sjaggs and Sappington in their mid twenties, the future would seem exceedingly bright. 

 

I disagree with those who believe Garza to be league average.  He's better than that and I think we all know he is.  But hands down, Tanaka is better for this team now and in the future, regardless of the monster contract he'll be owed. 

[Inside Pitch]

Tanaka.  Three years from now, Weav will likely be done and Wilson will be reaching the sunset of his career.  Normally, such a development would frighten me, but if we have Tanaka, Richards and Santiago in their late twenties and Sjaggs and Sappington in their mid twenties, the future would seem exceedingly bright. 

 

I disagree with those who believe Garza to be league average.  He's better than that and I think we all know he is.  But hands down, Tanaka is better for this team now and in the future, regardless of the monster contract he'll be owed. 

 

Sure he's better than that - but how much better?  He's a 105 ERA+ pitcher in the AL through his prime years.   He's not getting any younger or healthier.   

[Second Base]

Sure he's better than that - but how much better?  He's a 105 ERA+ pitcher in the AL through his prime years.   He's not getting any younger or healthier.   

 

Personally, I think 2011 and the first half of this season are closer to Garza's actual performance across the next 3-5 years than his numbers with the Rangers and in 2012 when he was pitching with discomfort.  This isn't to say he'll be posting an ERA south of 3.20 every year but 3 and a half and 8 K/9 should be the norm.  

 

Still, that isn't a TON better than average, but it's solid for a #3 SP.  Unfortunately, in this market, a solid #3 SP could cost you 100 million.  There's only so much you can offer Garza before it not only becomes ridiculous, but also a hinderance.  From the looks of things, Garza's money that he'll be owed may turn into a hinderance in years 4-5.  

 

On top of which, there's a pretty good chance that Santiago, Richards and Skaggs could all be meeting Garza's value as a #3 SP very soon.  Tanaka on the other hand, no one knows for sure how successful he'll be as a pro but it seems evident that his value is considerably harder to meet, especially in a young pitcher. 

[Brent Maguire]

Tanaka without a doubt.

 

When you have the chance to sign a potential #2 pitcher at 25 years old, you do whatever it takes to get him. Tanaka is a HUGE difference maker while Garza just makes us marginally better. 

[Ohtaniland]

Personally, I think 2011 and the first half of this season are closer to Garza's actual performance across the next 3-5 years than his numbers with the Rangers and in 2012 when he was pitching with discomfort.  This isn't to say he'll be posting an ERA south of 3.20 every year but 3 and a half and 8 K/9 should be the norm.  

 

Still, that isn't a TON better than average, but it's solid for a #3 SP.  Unfortunately, in this market, a solid #3 SP could cost you 100 million.  There's only so much you can offer Garza before it not only becomes ridiculous, but also a hinderance.  From the looks of things, Garza's money that he'll be owed may turn into a hinderance in years 4-5.  

 

On top of which, there's a pretty good chance that Santiago, Richards and Skaggs could all be meeting Garza's value as a #3 SP very soon.  Tanaka on the other hand, no one knows for sure how successful he'll be as a pro but it seems evident that his value is considerably harder to meet, especially in a young pitcher. 

 

Garza may end up sucking towards the end of a long-term deal. I would throw a huge caution flag out on Garza for anything more than 3-year deal. Tanaka on the other hand.............

[Inside Pitch]

Personally, I think 2011 and the first half of this season are closer to Garza's actual performance across the next 3-5 years than his numbers with the Rangers and in 2012 when he was pitching with discomfort.  This isn't to say he'll be posting an ERA south of 3.20 every year but 3 and a half and 8 K/9 should be the norm.  

 

Still, that isn't a TON better than average, but it's solid for a #3 SP.  Unfortunately, in this market, a solid #3 SP could cost you 100 million.  There's only so much you can offer Garza before it not only becomes ridiculous, but also a hinderance.  From the looks of things, Garza's money that he'll be owed may turn into a hinderance in years 4-5.  

 

On top of which, there's a pretty good chance that Santiago, Richards and Skaggs could all be meeting Garza's value as a #3 SP very soon.  Tanaka on the other hand, no one knows for sure how successful he'll be as a pro but it seems evident that his value is considerably harder to meet, especially in a young pitcher. 

 

 

You're hoping.  Unfortunately, the AL is not the NL and he's a known entity in the AL.  

 

I don't mind paying for a number three -- but guys who post 105 ERA+s and can't top the 200 IP mark are just talented number fours.  He's a very good number 4.

 

Both Tanaka and Garza have risks -- with Tanaka there's a chance he flops and you screwed the pooch.  With Garza there is more certainty for sure -- there just isn't the potential upside and there is the history of arm trouble.  I guess if I'm running a team and I'm going to risk money, I'd feel better taking the risk on the guy who could be a number two and not the guy who could be a three if he's healthy,.

Edited December 25, 2013 by Inside Pitch

[AngelsFaninGA]

Tanaka by a mile. Not to mention Garza is a douche (not in the CJ Wilson sense, but in the sense that he seems like a genuinely dislikeable person, and I don't want to be forced to cheer for him). 

[Inside Pitch]

I really hope Tanaka liked not hitting in the Pacific League and would prefer to keep playing in a DH league.

Also, it's the Holidays and all that but eff the Dodgers.

[rick99gtp]

Tanaka.

[gotbeer]

It's all going to depend on price. I have a feeling both will be very expensive.

If Garza was going to get a 4 or 5 year/$12-15 million a year deal, he would have signed already. I have a bad feeling that he's looking for a 7 year deal. Yeah, you heard me. He's 30 years old. He doesn't cost a pick. He is probably the best proven MLB player on the market. He will look for that last big payday.

Then there is Tanaka. MLB newcomer, so he could be a Matsuzaka or a Darvish. But more than likely, something in between. He's the big fish on the market, and if you look at what teams paid for Matsuzaka and Darvish. Matsuzaka was 6/$52 with $2 bonus and $51 million posting for a total of $105 million. Darvish was 6/$56 with a $51 million posting for a total of $107 million.

So IMO, Angels should go 6/$90 on Tanaka not including posting fee, and 5/$75 on Garza. But I think both with go significantly over, Tanaka on the money side, and Garza on the years. And if they do, pass.

Edited December 25, 2013 by gotbeer

[HaloMilliVanilli]

Tanaka, easily.  Probably gonna cost $120 million or higher including the posting fee.  If no Tanaka, I'd rather sign a couple of 1-year projects. 

[Second Base]

If the info I'm being fed is correct (and I'd like to think it is), early in the offseason Garza's agent asked over 100 million for a quick strike signing and no team bit. During the winter meetings the Angels checked in again and this time were told over 90 to which Dipoto was visibly disturbed by. Angels attempted to negotiate again after the winter meetings and were told Matt wanted to "let the market play out", which to me sounds like they weren't fielding any offers until they knew how the market shaped up depending on Tanaka's decision.

Now that we've just found out about Tanaka I imagine it can go one of a few ways but ultimately this will likely happen: Garza's agent will market him as the lower priced alternative to Tanaka once teams understand how much the Yankees are bidding and he'll either sign shortly before Tanaka as some team tries to avoid the fallout, or he'll sign immediately after Tanaka and benefit from some team's desperation.

Ultimately I see Garza getting the 5/90 he's looking for. I just really hope we aren't the team so stupid and desperate to give it to him.

[Brent Maguire]

5/90 is just terrible for Garza. For a guy who hasn't pitched over 155 innings either of the past 2 years, that is a crazy deal. 

 

There's nothing wrong with him as a 3/4 guy but 3/4 guys don't get paid that much money. 

[Docwaukee]

5/90 is just terrible for Garza. For a guy who hasn't pitched over 155 innings either of the past 2 years, that is a crazy deal. 

 

There's nothing wrong with him as a 3/4 guy but 3/4 guys don't get paid that much money.

I think he gets 5/90 and I hope it's not from us. Gotta stop at 4 for him. I can live with 4/70 although I am generally inclined to steer clear.

I think he can help the 2014 team and that's about it. Otherwise, he's more payroll suck.

[Halos of Anaheim]

5/90 lmao I will literally lose faith in this organization if we add that contract to our already bad contracted team. 4/70 is the highest we should go, and even that makes me weary..but I could live with it.

 

Tanaka at 7/120 I have no problem with, I think at his worst he'll be a solid #3, with potential to be a top of the rotation starter for years to come.

[Brent Maguire]

I just believe the Angels should stay away from these long deals for players entering their 30's, especially pitchers. 

 

The big reason Tanaka is such a sexy option is his age. You're signing him for the prime years of his career and there's a very good chance he outproduces Garza by a longshot, starting in year 1. Garza is a perfectly fine pitcher but he's going to get overpaid.

 

Tanaka at 6/110 or 7/130 is nothing considering how the market has been this offseason. People will be skeptical about him coming here but all reports and video say he's a guy with good stuff and great command. That should translate very well here. 

[Halos of Anaheim]

I just believe the Angels should stay away from these long deals for players entering their 30's, especially pitchers. 

 

The big reason Tanaka is such a sexy option is his age. You're signing him for the prime years of his career and there's a very good chance he outproduces Garza by a longshot, starting in year 1. Garza is a perfectly fine pitcher but he's going to get overpaid.

 

Tanaka at 6/110 or 7/130 is nothing considering how the market has been this offseason. People will be skeptical about him coming here but all reports and video say he's a guy with good stuff and great command. That should translate very well here. 

Yup, on the exact same wave-length as you. I think most of us here are.

[nikkachez]

You go Tanaka  straight out of the gate but Garza is a solid backup plan

[vlad27]

Just read a NY times article - mentions were only of the Yankees, dodgers and Red Sox - didn't sound too promising . That said I think he'd be a great addition and I hope we get in on this . if not we go after Garza- we really seriously still need pitching - rotation looks thin right now and that's assuming everyone is healthy

[Angel Oracle]

Tanaka's AAV contract is ultimately not going to be that much more than Garza's, and he's some 5-6 years younger.

Yes, Garza is the one with MLB experience. He has also never had a season worthy of any spot above #3 in the rotation, and is getting towards being a #3/#4.

Tanaka any day!

On the too many pitches and starting at age 18/19 counter argument for Tanaka, they only make about 26-28 starts a season over there, 5-7 fewer then over here. And he's still young, I'd equate him to say a #2 whose age 27/28 over here. Seven years of that would still only mean age 33/34 in year 7, which Weaver will be in 2016.

Tanaka will also never throw 160 pitches over here, even in a WS game.

Tops would likely be 125-130 pitches, but usually between 110-120.

Edited December 25, 2013 by Angel Oracle

[Hubs]

Tanaka is the better choice and it is not close.

Tanaka has good stuff with two legitimate out pitches.

He's a workhorse when healthy, regularly throwing into the eighth or ninth innings.

Granted that's with a higher pitch count, but he's a command first guy, with plus stuff. Darvish has better stuff but Tanaka has better control.

One of the issues the Angels had last season was guys not pitching late into games which led to an overworked bullpen.

At worst he's a #3/#4 who pitches a lot of innings. Most likely he's a 25 year old Dan Haren. And at best, he could be better. His splitter will be murder on lefties, of which The AL West added three of the best this offseason.

As to the competition, the Angels should go hard after him and convince him that they are closer to winning than any of the other big name suitors. The Yankees are old and have a lot of potential problems with injury. With the Sox and the Rays, they play in a very tough division. Cubs aren't close to competing. Dodgers are good but also have a lot of star pitchers. Mariners aren't great.

Angels are the best fit. Great offense. Solid staff whose two oldest starters are in their early 30's. decent pen. West Coast. History of success, recently. All of that and a good contract equals the best fit.

If the old posting system was in place I believe the Angels would've lost to the Yanks or the Dogs, with the new one, they have a chance to convince him this is the best fit.

[Halos of Anaheim]

Tanaka is the better choice and it is not close.

Tanaka has good stuff with two legitimate out pitches.

He's a workhorse when healthy, regularly throwing into the eighth or ninth innings.

Granted that's with a higher pitch count, but he's a command first guy, with plus stuff. Darvish has better stuff but Tanaka has better control.

One of the issues the Angels had last season was guys not pitching late into games which led to an overworked bullpen.

At worst he's a #3/#4 who pitches a lot of innings. Most likely he's a 25 year old Dan Haren. And at best, he could be better. His splitter will be murder on lefties, of which The AL West added three of the best this offseason.

As to the competition, the Angels should go hard after him and convince him that they are closer to winning than any of the other big name suitors. The Yankees are old and have a lot of potential problems with injury. With the Sox and the Rays, they play in a very tough division. Cubs aren't close to competing. Dodgers are good but also have a lot of star pitchers. Mariners aren't great.

Angels are the best fit. Great offense. Solid staff whose two oldest starters are in their early 30's. decent pen. West Coast. History of success, recently. All of that and a good contract equals the best fit.

If the old posting system was in place I believe the Angels would've lost to the Yanks or the Dogs, with the new one, they have a chance to convince him this is the best fit.

Elaborate.

[tdawg87]

Just read a NY times article - mentions were only of the Yankees, dodgers and Red Sox - didn't sound too promising . That said I think he'd be a great addition and I hope we get in on this . if not we go after Garza- we really seriously still need pitching - rotation looks thin right now and that's assuming everyone is healthy

The Angels were never considered to be in on Pujols or Hamilton until the last minute. That's just how they roll. Arte has played it well regarding the tax. People don't expect them to be serious because of it, but I would be absolutely shocked if Arte wasn't willing to offer 20 million a year. Hell I think he will go all out. He obviously has a limit but if he offered Tanaka 6/126 I wouldn't be surprised.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

Tanaka is the clear choice due to age and durability. Realistically we wind up pursuing Garza, because Tanaka winds up in New York or Boston.

[1dering1]

Hi There... Long time stalker, first time poster!  Merry X-Mas everyone!  Anyways.. I just wanted to say that I think Tanaka is key to get for any price and I know Moreno knows this... honestly, despite the fact that it is the best move for the team, from a financial standpoint the Angels really need a stalwart into the Asian market much like they have displayed in the past in the Hispanic market.  The investment in Tanaka will pay dividends on the field and financially as well!  Any other pitcher, even if they were better than Tanaka (and they aren't) would be lesser as far as marketing and profitability.  So spend and it will pay dividends.

 

 

 

1dering1