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Mark Trumbo vs. Chris Davis


Angel Oracle

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Davis started off in his age 22/23 seasons as a platoon guy (about 700 at bats in those 2 seasons with .880 and .727 OPS seasons).   Then he disappeared until resurfacing in Baltimore at age 26 in 2012 and putting up an .827 OPS, and of course took off in 2013. 

 

Both Davis and Trumbo have a background of being big K guys with massive power.

Both have improved their BBs numbers over the years.

 

Can Trumbo ever put up at least a .900 OPS in any of the next 3 seasons?

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He doesn't need to be a .900 OPS guy to be valuable. Trumbo has 95 HRs in just 3 seasons with a few more games to go. A lot of guys are no where near that level of power. He will mash for whatever team he plays for. If he ever became an .830 player, we would be all over his nut sack, cause he would be driving in runs and hitting balls out of the stadium with even more regularity.

And, it's very doable for him to get to .830. He just needs not to slump as drastically as he does. Cause when he's hot, he's Trout-like.

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I suppose he's theoretically capable of going berserk on baseball one of these years. It wouldn't be something I would expect in the least(especially not at the level Chris Davis has been this year), but baseball is weird and unpredictable.

 

And Chris Davis is pretty outlier-y. So while the possibility that Trumbo blows away what you would expect is something to be aware of(and that's true for just about every time you trade away a player), I don't think the odds of it are nearly high enough to where you would shy away from dealing him because of it(not that's the necessarily the context the OP was phrased in, but...).

 

Odds are, he probably pretty much is what he is.

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He's made baby steps each year but for most guys like them change is not incremental. Just one little adjustment might improve his plate coverage or vision to the point of being a Eureka moment.  I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he goes on a 3 month tear next season and ends up with 40+ home runs, which is no small feat for an Angels player. They currently have a one man club of 40 homer hitters in their history.

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