A New Tale of Two Superstars from Yesteryear (Trout & Rendon)

[Angelsjunky]

While it is nothing new to say that Trout and Rendon have been injury prone the last three (or more) years, it cannot be understated what a huge impact this has had on the team's performance, both in terms of lost value through them sitting but also the huge amount of money the Angels have allocated to their primary role as dugout bench-warmers. Consider...

2021-23

Games Played (of 486): Trout 237 (48.8%), Rendon 148 (30.5%)

% of Games Played (average): 39.6%

Three-year Salary (both): $214.7MM

Three-year fWAR (both): 12.3 (average of 4.1 per year)

$/Win (both): $17.5M

To put that in narrative, for the last three seasons, Trout and Rendon have--together--played a bit less than 40% of all Angels games, being paid $214.7M total, or about $71.6M per year. What did that yield? 12.3 WAR total, or 4.1 WAR per year. Each Win Above Replacement from the two together cost the Angels $17.5M.

To put that in context, 4.1 WAR is pretty much the definition of a very good regular or borderline star. The average qualified hitter produces 2.7 WAR per year, so 2.0 - 3.5 or so is roughly the range for an average regular position player, from solid to quality. Above 3.5 and up to about 5.0 is what could be called an impact player or borderline star, with 5+ WAR being a true star and 7+ WAR being MVP caliber and a candidate for best player of the year.

So Trout and Rendon, together, have averaged out to be a borderline star, for the cost of almost $72M a year.

That is a problem. What they should be producing--based on salary--is more than twice that, and really only that as a baseline. Two borderline stars for their salaries would be disappointing; one is disastrous, especially when you consider that the Angels are using about one-third of their payroll on these two players (more in 2022). For that $72M they need more than 4 WAR.

"OK, I know this AJ. Tell me something new."

The simple fact is that this puts a huge cramp on the Angels ability to field a competitive team, which can change in one of three ways:

One, Trout and Rendon play better. As recently as 2022, Trout was an elite hitter. Last year he had a 176 wRC+, which is above his career average of 170 wRC+ and exactly the median of his his nine full seasons. His 6 WAR in 119 games was lower than his career average, but still projected to 7-8 WAR if he played 140+ games. As for Rendon, who knows what he's capable of. He was great in 2020, but since then he's hit .235/.338/.363 in 148 games over the last three years, accruing only 1.1 WAR. Conceivably he would perform better if healthy, but how much better?

But the point is, the Angels drastically improve if Trout and Rendon are healthier and play better. This year they combined for only 3.2 WAR...they need to at least triple that.

Two, well, Rendon "only" has three more years. Meaning, in 2027 they won't have to pay him, so all of a sudden half of that $72M is freed up.

Three, the rest of the team makes up the difference. This is a tall ask, especially with Ohtani likely leaving. They have a solid cast of complementary and/or up-and-coming players, but no one else features as a true star. Yet. It remains to be seen how good players like O'Hoppe, Neto, Schanuel, or even Adell and prospect Nelson Rada will eventually become. There really are no star caliber position players on the free agent market this offseason, with the possible exception of Cody Bellinger (depending upon whether one thinks his comeback season in 2023 is sustainable).

The Bottom Line: Nothing new here, but for the Angels to compete in 2024-26, they need more from Trout and Rendon -- and really, much more. If Ohtani returns, the pressure is off a bit, but they still need to be healthier than they've been. If we imagine a WAR total from the two as representative of the Angels playoff chances in any year from 2024-26, I'd put the over/under in the 8-10 WAR range. Meaning, they need to at least double their out-put to have a reasonable shot at the postseason (not considering other factors).

 

[Taylor]

Comparing Trout and Rendon is like comparing In-N-Out and Arby's.

 

 

 

 

(but great post)

[ten ocho recon scout]

It's hard to believe, but we literally finally clawed our way out from under the Pujols/Hamilton deals, and find ourselves in the exact same spot.

Nothing needs to be said about Rendon. He's been an absolute disaster. And he won't get better.

I love Trout. Always will. And I'll cut him the slack that hey, he "earned" his deal, and no matter what, I'm OK with the dead money since we got his best years, he'll go to the Hall as an Angel etc etc.

But he's not above being blamed here. It feels dirty and sacrilegious to do so. But it's reality.

[jsnpritchett]

6 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Comparing Trout and Rendon is like comparing In-N-Out and Arby's.

 

 

 

 

(but great post)

....but Arby's has the meats...

[Angelsjunky]

3 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

It's hard to believe, but we literally finally clawed our way out from under the Pujols/Hamilton deals, and find ourselves in the exact same spot.

Nothing needs to be said about Rendon. He's been an absolute disaster. And he won't get better.

I love Trout. Always will. And I'll cut him the slack that hey, he "earned" his deal, and no matter what, I'm OK with the dead money since we got his best years, he'll go to the Hall as an Angel etc etc.

But he's not above being blamed here. It feels dirty and sacrilegious to do so. But it's reality.

The one difference is that unlike Pujols and Hamilton, Trout still seems capable of elite performance...if healthy. He slumped for most of May and June this year, but was his usual self for the first few weeks and last couple before getting hurt. So I think the elite 170 wRC+ bat is still there. But we may be at the point where a "good" Trout year is a repeat of 2022...I certainly don't think we'll ever see him play 140 games again.

As for Rendon, it is hard to say. On one hand, it is three years now of poor performance, and I shared his 2021-23 numbers in the original post and it isn't pretty. But we also know he's a momentum guy, so if he can stay healthy (and that's a big if), I think he can put up better numbers than that. Not peak level, but maybe .270/.380/.450. But chances are he won't ever be healthy again. Another season like the last three, and I think Arte cuts his losses and releases him before 2025.

[ScottT]

Ffs

[stormngt]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

While it is nothing new to say that Trout and Rendon have been injury prone the last three (or more) years, it cannot be understated what a huge impact this has had on the team's performance, both in terms of lost value through them sitting but also the huge amount of money the Angels have allocated to their primary role as dugout bench-warmers. Consider...

2021-23

Games Played (of 486): Trout 237 (48.8%), Rendon 148 (30.5%)

% of Games Played (average): 39.6%

Three-year Salary (both): $214.7MM

Three-year fWAR (both): 12.3 (average of 4.1 per year)

$/Win (both): $17.5M

To put that in narrative, for the last three seasons, Trout and Rendon have--together--played a bit less than 40% of all Angels games, being paid $214.7M total, or about $71.6M per year. What did that yield? 12.3 WAR total, or 4.1 WAR per year. Each Win Above Replacement from the two together cost the Angels $17.5M.

To put that in context, 4.1 WAR is pretty much the definition of a very good regular or borderline star. The average qualified hitter produces 2.7 WAR per year, so 2.0 - 3.5 or so is roughly the range for an average regular position player, from solid to quality. Above 3.5 and up to about 5.0 is what could be called an impact player or borderline star, with 5+ WAR being a true star and 7+ WAR being MVP caliber and a candidate for best player of the year.

So Trout and Rendon, together, have averaged out to be a borderline star, for the cost of almost $72M a year.

That is a problem. What they should be producing--based on salary--is more than twice that, and really only that as a baseline. Two borderline stars for their salaries would be disappointing; one is disastrous, especially when you consider that the Angels are using about one-third of their payroll on these two players (more in 2022). For that $72M they need more than 4 WAR.

"OK, I know this AJ. Tell me something new."

The simple fact is that this puts a huge cramp on the Angels ability to field a competitive team, which can change in one of three ways:

One, Trout and Rendon play better. As recently as 2022, Trout was an elite hitter. Last year he had a 176 wRC+, which is above his career average of 170 wRC+ and exactly the median of his his nine full seasons. His 6 WAR in 119 games was lower than his career average, but still projected to 7-8 WAR if he played 140+ games. As for Rendon, who knows what he's capable of. He was great in 2020, but since then he's hit .235/.338/.363 in 148 games over the last three years, accruing only 1.1 WAR. Conceivably he would perform better if healthy, but how much better?

But the point is, the Angels drastically improve if Trout and Rendon are healthier and play better. This year they combined for only 3.2 WAR...they need to at least triple that.

Two, well, Rendon "only" has three more years. Meaning, in 2027 they won't have to pay him, so all of a sudden half of that $72M is freed up.

Three, the rest of the team makes up the difference. This is a tall ask, especially with Ohtani likely leaving. They have a solid cast of complementary and/or up-and-coming players, but no one else features as a true star. Yet. It remains to be seen how good players like O'Hoppe, Neto, Schanuel, or even Adell and prospect Nelson Rada will eventually become. There really are no star caliber position players on the free agent market this offseason, with the possible exception of Cody Bellinger (depending upon whether one thinks his comeback season in 2023 is sustainable).

The Bottom Line: Nothing new here, but for the Angels to compete in 2024-26, they need more from Trout and Rendon -- and really, much more. If Ohtani returns, the pressure is off a bit, but they still need to be healthier than they've been. If we imagine a WAR total from the two as representative of the Angels playoff chances in any year from 2024-26, I'd put the over/under in the 8-10 WAR range. Meaning, they need to at least double their out-put to have a reasonable shot at the postseason (not considering other factors).

 

I didnt read this.  Anyone to suggest Trout is a bust should be banned.  Trout has earned every dime.  This includes his latest contract.  The way badeball operates is that players are under paid for 6 years and grossly overpaid after that.  Trout first ten years he was under paid in terms of value 

[Taylor]

48 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

....but Arby's has the meats...

In-N-Out is MVP quality, but its availability is limited outside of a handful of states (just like Trout's availability has been limited).

Arby's sucks ass so much that you never eat there and always forget there's one in your town.

[AngelsLakersFan]

2 minutes ago, Taylor said:

In-N-Out is MVP quality, but its availability is limited outside of a handful of states (just like Trout's availability has been limited).

Arby's sucks ass so much that you never eat there and always forget there's one in your town.

We’re wasting In n Outs best years?

[Jason]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

Comparing Trout and Rendon is like comparing In-N-Out and Arby's.

 

 

 

 

(but great post)

The only comparison is that neither of them play that much baseball anymore. 

[Taylor]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

We’re wasting In n Outs best years?

And INO could be traded if it asks for one.

And gets fat every November.

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, stormngt said:

I didnt read this.  Anyone to suggest Trout is a bust should be banned.  Trout has earned every dime.  This includes his latest contract.  The way badeball operates is that players are under paid for 6 years and grossly overpaid after that.  Trout first ten years he was under paid in terms of value 

If you didn't read it, then you don't know that the post isn't about whether Trout is a bust or not (just a bit of hyperbolic clickbait on my part), but feel free to continue with your righteous indignation.

[stormngt]

30 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

If you didn't read it, then you don't know that the post isn't about whether Trout is a bust or not (just a bit of hyperbolic clickbait on my part), but feel free to continue with your righteous indignation.

I read it. Liked it.  I was referring to title of thread.

[ettin]

3 hours ago, Taylor said:

Comparing Trout and Rendon is like comparing Five Guys In-N-Out and Arby's.

FIXED

 

 

 

(but great post)

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by ettin

[Taylor]

14 minutes ago, ettin said:

 

@Stradling owned

[ScottT]

3 hours ago, stormngt said:

I didnt read this.  

Same.

I knew who wrote it though

[The Ghost of Bob Starr]

Can we change our name to the Albatross?

[PattyD22]

Trout is an In N Out Double Double Animal style.

Rendon is In N Out cold French fries

[Angelsfan1984]

18 minutes ago, PattyD22 said:

Trout is an In N Out Double Double Animal style.

Rendon is In N Out cold French fries

Rendon is more like In N mostly Out.

[Angel Oracle]

4 hours ago, stormngt said:

I didnt read this.  Anyone to suggest Trout is a bust should be banned.  Trout has earned every dime.  This includes his latest contract.  The way badeball operates is that players are under paid for 6 years and grossly overpaid after that.  Trout first ten years he was under paid in terms of value 

Here’s the thing though.

Trout has only played 424 out of 708 games the past 5 seasons since the new contract started.   That’s only 60%.
 
When does that stop?

This team has been really burned by too many long contracts that didn’t work out.

Pujols, Hamilton, Upton, Rendon, and now the lack of games played by Trout.

It HAS to stop at some point!

[stormngt]

17 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

Here’s the thing though.

Trout has only played 424 out of 708 games the past 5 seasons since the new contract started.   That’s only 60%.
 
When does that stop?

This team has been really burned by too many long contracts that didn’t work out.

Pujols, Hamilton, Upton, Rendon, and now the lack of games played by Trout.

It HAS to stop at some point!

IMO you do not sign long term contract for other teams FA.  I dont mind Trouts because we got his best years for cheap.  However we paid Pujols for his St Louis performance.

 

I have no problem taking a risk of a long term contract for our home grown players 

Edited September 26, 2023 by stormngt

[AngelsMetsWS]

8 hours ago, stormngt said:

IMO you do not sign long term contract for other teams FA.  I dont mind Trouts because we got his best years for cheap.  However we paid Pujols for his St Louis performance.

 

I have no problem taling a risk of a long term contract for our home grown players 

What do you think about Ohtani?
if he does sign here his contact could very well be another franchise killer.  

[CaliAngel]

9 hours ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

Rendon is more like In N mostly Out.

Rendon is the burger wrapper left in the parking lot that doesn't belong there. 

[Chuck]

 

[Jay]

Weird how Trout mentions "conversations with Arte and John" but not Minasian.