A New Tale of Two Superstars from Yesteryear (Trout & Rendon)

[Blarg]

Just now, Jay said:

Weird how Trout mentions "conversations with Arte and John" but not Minasian.

 

He says he has them every year. There have been four GMs since Trout signed with the Angels.

[BTH]

43 minutes ago, Jay said:

Weird how Trout mentions "conversations with Arte and John" but not Minasian.

 

“These conversations happen every year, not just this year," Trout said. "They're private conversations I have with the front office -- John and Perry, all those guys up there. So just keep it as that.”

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38492607/angels-trout-just-injury-plagued-season

[Angelsjunky]

12 hours ago, stormngt said:

I read it. Liked it.  I was referring to title of thread.

Well, even though the title is a bit hyperbolic, it isn't entirely un-true. Two things can be true at the same time:

1. Love Trout. Greatest Angel of all time by a huge margin, and I don't want to see him finish his career anywhere else.

2. His last 3-4 years have been terribly disappointing, and his 12-year (2019-30) contract is looking a bit "busty," in terms of expected performance per dollar spent. But simply on a baseball level, it is sad to see a guy who looked like he'd finish as one of the top 5 players of all time, now looking like he might struggle to breach the top 20...still great, of course, but there's a big difference between a 140 WAR career and a 100 WAR career.

But back to my main point: The Angels are using a huge chunk of resources ($) on Trout and Rendon and if they don't improve their collective performance (4.1 WAR average over the last three seasons), chances are the Angels won't compete. They need more from their two biggest salaried players, even more so if Ohtani is gone.

And the corollary is also true: A major part of why the Angels have been bad the last few seasons has been the poor performances of Trout and Rendon. Not the only reason, of course, but one of the biggest ones.

 

[Tank]

was hoping this thread would include kate upton.

 

#disappointed

[Duren, Duren]

The time Trout missed this season may help revitalize him for next season. Assuming his hand injury is fully healed. He put a lot of wear and tear on his body for over a decade, and coming into spring training relatively fresh may help him get off to a good start.

And hopefully his bat speed and selectivity reset to his norm.  

Anything from Rendon will be a bonus. I think fans will have little patience with him if he plays badly and/or starts missing games again. However he may salvage his reputation with just a decent year, not anything great. Steady play in thee field, decent numbers in the middle of thee lineup. He still has three years to try and justify his contract. 

I'm cynical about him, but will wait and see how things unfold. And he definitely needs to be more fan and media friendly. 

in theory both guys should be big leadership players. Trout seems to be, but Rendon has been the antithesis of that so far as we know. 

[Angelsjunky]

To put it visually:

2019-20 (the pro-rated version) depicts what we "should" have expected over the last three years. I mean, it wasn't like these guys were ancient in 2021-23: Trout 29-31, Rendon 31-33.

I suppose the silver lining is that the huge dropoff from Rendon has to be hugely impacted by injury - meaning, not only age-related to decline. A healthy-ish Rendon may still be capable of producing 3-4 WAR in 100-120 games. That may be a tall ask, though, in terms of games played.

The only way I can feel optimistic about Trout is by doubling down on the "freak injury" nature of his hamate bone. So while I he's clearly earned the label of injury-prone, which will see him miss 20-40 games even in a healthy-ish season, that means that without such a freak injury, he could still play 120-140, which would get us 6-8 WAR. In theory.

The point being that I think a bit more luck and lack of freak injuries could get us back to 8-12 WAR from these two. Not with the 14-15 WAR of 2019-20, but still a lot better than the last few seasons.

[jsnpritchett]

15 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

I suppose the silver lining is that the huge dropoff from Rendon has to be hugely impacted by injury - meaning, not only age-related to decline. A healthy-ish Rendon may still be capable of producing 3-4 WAR in 100-120 games. That may be a tall ask, though, in terms of games played.

I've said this elsewhere, but I just don't think any of us have any idea at this point what a "healthy" Rendon can produce over the course of a full season.  By the time next season starts, it will have been 4 1/2 calendar years since he played regularly for more than a two-month stretch.

Even in 2020, there were already some signs that his offensive profile was changing.  

The last couple years have seen a huge decline defensively, too--though how much of that was due to lingering effects of the various injuries is hard to know. 

Point being, if his defensive decline is real and not tied to injuries, and offensively, he gets on base at a decent clip, but doesn't have much power, even 3-4 WAR over the course of 120 games might be a stretch. We just don't know. 

 

[Jay]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

He says he has them every year. There have been four GMs since Trout signed with the Angels.

Seems clear that Minasian is at a lower level in the org chart. I don't disagree that he should be lower but there should be a president of baseball operations at the same level as Carpino.

And Minasian should report up to the POBO instead of reporting to some billboard salesman.

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Jay

[Taylor]

I wonder if Rendon is older than he claims to be.

[jsnpritchett]

5 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I wonder if Rendon is older than he claims to be.

Big if true. 

Dall E-2 spits out these images when you prompt it with "Anthony Rendon as an old man":

[Taylor]

2 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

Big if true. 

Dall E-2 spits out these images when you prompt it with "Anthony Rendon as an old man":

This is what "Albert Pujols as Old Man" looks like:

[Angel Oracle]

2 hours ago, Jay said:

Seems clear that Minasian is at a lower level in the org chart. I don't disagree that he should be lower but there should be a president of baseball operations at the same level as Carpino.

And Minasian should report up to the POBO instead of reporting to some billboard salesman.

 

This times infinity.

Keep Carpino out of it.

 

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Taylor said:

I wonder if Rendon is older than he claims to be.

Born in Houston, so probably not.

[Angel Oracle]

I do wonder if moving Rendon to DH can keep him healthier going forward.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

I've said this elsewhere, but I just don't think any of us have any idea at this point what a "healthy" Rendon can produce over the course of a full season.  By the time next season starts, it will have been 4 1/2 calendar years since he played regularly for more than a two-month stretch.

Even in 2020, there were already some signs that his offensive profile was changing.  

The last couple years have seen a huge decline defensively, too--though how much of that was due to lingering effects of the various injuries is hard to know. 

Point being, if his defensive decline is real and not tied to injuries, and offensively, he gets on base at a decent clip, but doesn't have much power, even 3-4 WAR over the course of 120 games might be a stretch. We just don't know. 

 

Very true. My tiny nit-pick is that while I think there's some truth to what you say about 2020, he was never really a big power hitter, only hitting above 25 once (in 2018 with 34). His 2020 ISO was .212, which was lower than the three years previously but higher than any other season, and only significantly lower than 2018 (.279). His reduction in BA (.286) was partially due to a lower BABIP and probably would have risen to closer to .300 by season's end. He was walking more, too.

Overall his 152 wRC+ in 2020 was second highest of his career. Peak Rendon (2017-20) was 140, 141, 155, 152.

Rendon, I think, was a somewhat similar hitter to Bobby Abreu, if less consistent and with a much shorter peak. But I think a healthy Rendon over the last few years--and maybe another couple years--could put up similar numbers to latter-day Abreu, who as a Yankee and Angel hit .277/.367/.432 with a 118 wRC+ in 2007-11 at age 33-37.

[UndertheHalo]

I ask again, has anyone questioned Anthony Rendon about his presence in the Epstein flight logs?

[Taylor]

18 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Born in Houston, so probably not.

Texas didn't start creating birth records until 1996.

[Taylor]

3 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I ask again, has anyone questioned Anthony Rendon about his presence in the Epstein flight logs?

Instead of asking Mike Trout if he's going to return next year, they should be asking real questions like this.

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, jsnpritchett said:

Big if true. 

Dall E-2 spits out these images when you prompt it with "Anthony Rendon as an old man":

[Blarg]

24 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I do wonder if moving Rendon to DH can keep him healthier going forward.

He fouled a ball off his shin and missed half the season. Even if they put him in the bullpen for safe keeping he'd get hit with a home run ball and be out with a concussion.

[Taylor]

11 minutes ago, Blarg said:

I wish Rendon was as funny as Cheech. I'd like him more.

[jsnpritchett]

39 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Very true. My tiny nit-pick is that while I think there's some truth to what you say about 2020, he was never really a big power hitter, only hitting above 25 once (in 2018 with 34). His 2020 ISO was .212, which was lower than the three years previously but higher than any other season, and only significantly lower than 2018 (.279). His reduction in BA (.286) was partially due to a lower BABIP and probably would have risen to closer to .300 by season's end. He was walking more, too.

Overall his 152 wRC+ in 2020 was second highest of his career. Peak Rendon (2017-20) was 140, 141, 155, 152.

Rendon, I think, was a somewhat similar hitter to Bobby Abreu, if less consistent and with a much shorter peak. But I think a healthy Rendon over the last few years--and maybe another couple years--could put up similar numbers to latter-day Abreu, who as a Yankee and Angel hit .277/.367/.432 with a 118 wRC+ in 2007-11 at age 33-37.

I just don't put a lot of stock in individual player stats from 2020, given that it was a partial season with all sorts of wackiness.  But, still, his ISO was down enough to make me think there was at least some decline in place.  He'll likely hit fewer doubles, fewer HRs moving forward even when he is healthy.  His BB rate was up, sure.  That's what I meant about his offensive profile starting to change that year: more BBs, less power, likely still pretty good-to-great with runners on, mediocre batting average overall.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

I do wonder if moving Rendon to DH can keep him healthier going forward.

it would at least prevent him from botching routine throws across the diamond

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, Angel Oracle said:

I do wonder if moving Rendon to DH can keep him healthier going forward.

Let's revue the last two years of injuries.

7/4/23     Shin
6/15/23    Wrist
5/14/23    Groin
6/14/22    Wrist
5/28/22    Wrist

Every single one had a plate appearance attached to it. Both Groin injuries were from running the bases. Wrists were hit by pitches.

Fielding isn't killing Rendon.  

[AngelStew43]

I fail to understand how anyone can compare a 3X MVP to Anthony Rendon.