Something to consider with today's trade

[arch stanton]

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

Is that Bush?

 

I can hear the Doors in the background

[ten ocho recon scout]

8 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

Jordyn Adams right now

 

 

[arch stanton]

1 minute ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Jordyn Adams right now

 

 

One of my favorite out of the blue quotes to use is “I just wanted some fucking mangoes”

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

One of my favorite out of the blue quotes to use is “I just wanted some fucking mangoes”

"HI TIGER! BYE TIGER!!"

[Dave Saltzer]

7 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I know a lot on here don't like the trade. And as someone who's watched this team struggle to produce actual ballplayers at the MLB level, I get it. I'm half foot in the same boat.

But @Jeff Fletcher mentioned on here a few days ago something that stood out. Teams today are less likely to move good prospects for rentals than they were 10 years ago.

Which obviously makes us sound stupid.

That said...

Loo at it in the vice versa. How much do we really think Ohtani was (is) going to bring back? I know causal fan assumes he would be a bonanza in trade, but again, he's a guaranteed FA at the end of the year (no extension). I'm sure we could have gotten a top tier prospect for him, and likely a few additional nice ones.

But the reality is, unicorn or not, for a 2 month rental, the odds are next to zero that we would have gotten anything close to a replacement. 

So the options were to trade Ohtani and punt the year, hoping that the return is someone like what we got today... Quero but better (maybe).

Stand pat, keep everyone, and gamble with what we have that 3 weeks from now there's still a chance.

Like Minasian said, you can go to sleep with this move and relax, because you did it for the right reasons.

It might absolutely haunt us a few years from now.

But not actually trying to win with Ohtani guaranteed to be wearing this uniform would also have absolutely haunted us.

Good post, and a few thoughts:

1) Yes, the time to trade him, if we were trading him, was last year at the deadline or in the offseason. Our haul would have been much better. Having said that, we would have gotten back more than Quero and Bush for Ohtani. 

2) Almost all teams that would have traded for him would have done so to showcase their organization to Ohtani to sell him on their team. So, paying more for him than a generic rental would have cost more.

3) I don't think anyone was saying that we could have come acquired something close to him in a trade, even in 2 players. The question was whether or not we could improve the team overall and win more in the long run by trading him that an extra draft pick that we get next year (assuming we don't sign him, and assuming we don't draft the next Mike Trout with that pick).

4) Maybe Arte and Perry came to an understanding on the parameters of a future deal with Ohtani and decided to go for it with him as part of that deal. I believe that he is mostly happy here, and if we can show that we can win, will stay if the numbers are comparable.

5) Maybe Perry and Arte realized that what they would get back for Ohtani wasn't worth the chance of signing him (kind of the flip of what teams have to consider when trading for him).

6) When I went by the team store today at about 3:45 pm, there were 30+ people in there buying mostly Ohtani merchandise.\

 

Now, having said all that:

1) If we are going all in, we should go all in a bit more and continue to upgrade, without totally decimating the team (by say trading Joyce, Silseth, Bachman, etc.).

2) A discussion needs to be had at some point with him and his agent, if that winning is important to him, and we don't make the postseason this year, it isn't due to our lack of trying. It has much more to do with the team's health and that he and Trout have only been in the same lineup about 60% of the time, and even then, he wasn't a 2-way play and star for all those games.

3) Can we please end the whole "Angels are wasting Trout and Ohtani's careers' theme? If Ohtani stays, it's his life, as long as we continue to try and improve and win.

 

Finally

1) I know that @Jeff Fletcher has disagreed with me in the past about the idea of presenting Ohtani with a sales pitch of committing to spending a certain amount every year independent of Ohtani's deal (it's not likely that a player's contract could have, or that MLB would agree to such a clause because of the potential long term impact on future deals, but then again, they might frown upon agreeing to give an ownership stake in the team as part of the deal for the same reason), one can have a handshake deal to do exactly that. The reason why we would give him multiple opt-outs would be how we ensure that we live up to our commitments. He can always opt out, if we don't spend as we promised.

 

2) Whatever team does sign Ohtani (and I sure hope it is us), needs to consider something. Let's assume that Ohtani gets about $55 million/year deal for about 8 to 10 years. Whatever team that signs him to that, is going to want to win and most likely will have a payroll without Ohtani around $200+ million/year already, and probably higher. That's one of the supposed reasons why the Dodgers lowered their payroll this year to reset their luxury tax hit.

 

However, when one adds in Ohtani's future contract, that will push just about any team over the luxury tax, and many teams like the Mets, Padres, Dodgers, Yankees, etc. into a position where they are $40 million or more over the luxury tax. I believe it is at that point that a team starts to have its 1st round draft pick pushed back 10 spots in the 1st round (unless the team finishes in the bottom 6 teams in record, in which case it is its second round pick). 

 

Whatever team realistically signs Ohtani is going to hit that threshold, which will over the life of the contract, hinder that team's ability to draft as high quality players, especially in the first round. Granted, if the team goes deep into the postseason year in and year out, who cares, there's *that* much of a difference of picking 28th or 38th. 

 

Still, Ohtani's deal will most likely hamper the future overall organization for whatever team realistically signs him. 

[Dave Saltzer]

5 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

@ten ocho recon scout

Bingo

I wrote a story about this last week. The reality is the Angels would have gotten something like two prospects in the 40-80 range and 3 lottery tickets. Nobody who is a major leaguer right now. That seems like nothing to casual fans but that would actually be a huge haul compared to other rentals. 
 

It certainly would have helped make the farm system look a little more shiny and get higher ratings, but it is a gamble to say it would have quickly led to more big league wins. 
 

Sooooooo many people who are saying the Angels missed some golden opportunity are vastly over rating what they could have gotten back. 

Will you ever be willing and/or comfortable discussing some possible trades that may have been rumored, even amongst the press corps, about what an Ohtani trade would have brought back from certain teams, or teams in general (maybe say a team with an organization ranked in the 5-10 range offered its #1, 2, 15, 18, and 20th ranked players)?

[Revad]

We’ll never know what the offers would have been if Ohtani had been traded at the deadline, maybe we’ll learn about some of the actual frameworks or packages that were discussed 6-7 days before the deadline.  Just like we’ll have to wait and see how this trade works out, but it should be an entertaining rest of the season.

[Jeff Fletcher]

5 hours ago, Dave Saltzer said:

Will you ever be willing and/or comfortable discussing some possible trades that may have been rumored, even amongst the press corps, about what an Ohtani trade would have brought back from certain teams, or teams in general (maybe say a team with an organization ranked in the 5-10 range offered its #1, 2, 15, 18, and 20th ranked players)?

I doubt I will ever get that detailed of information. 
 

And for the record, it’s not that meaningful to discuss where prospects are ranked within one organization. Anyone who is not in the overall MLB top 100 is basically not worth discussing. Those guys are all lottery tickets. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by Jeff Fletcher

[Revad]

50 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Anyone who is not in the overall MLB top 100 is basically not worth discussing. Those guys are all lottery tickets. 

Of course you can improve the lottery chances by having good scouting, but not many work out.  Someone here will remember the percentages of players that make it to MLB… might slim as I seem to recall.

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I doubt I will ever get that detailed of information. 
 

And for the record, it’s not that meaningful to discuss where prospects are ranked within one organization. Anyone who is not in the overall MLB top 100 is basically not worth discussing. Those guys are all lottery tickets. 

So in your opinion halos made the right move. I think they did rolling the dice right choice.

[VladdyforHOF]

Quero Quero. Remember Jesus Montero, the next great Yankee HOF catcher? What happened?

They traded Quero as he's still 20 and possibly at the peak of his value. He was not close to helping the Angels.

We already have Logan O'Hoppe.

Too many people losing their mind over trading this total unknown of a catcher.

[Angels 1961]

23 minutes ago, VladdyforHOF said:

Quero Quero. Remember Jesus Montero, the next great Yankee HOF catcher? What happened?

They traded Quero as he's still 20 and possibly at the peak of his value. He was not close to helping the Angels.

We already have Logan O'Hoppe.

Too many people losing their mind over trading this total unknown of a catcher.

After 7 losing seasons this was the right move. This weekend will tell a lot of rest of season. 

[Slegnaac]

7 hours ago, Dave Saltzer said:

Good post, and a few thoughts:

1) Yes, the time to trade him, if we were trading him, was last year at the deadline or in the offseason. Our haul would have been much better. Having said that, we would have gotten back more than Quero and Bush for Ohtani. 

2) Almost all teams that would have traded for him would have done so to showcase their organization to Ohtani to sell him on their team. So, paying more for him than a generic rental would have cost more.

3) I don't think anyone was saying that we could have come acquired something close to him in a trade, even in 2 players. The question was whether or not we could improve the team overall and win more in the long run by trading him that an extra draft pick that we get next year (assuming we don't sign him, and assuming we don't draft the next Mike Trout with that pick).

4) Maybe Arte and Perry came to an understanding on the parameters of a future deal with Ohtani and decided to go for it with him as part of that deal. I believe that he is mostly happy here, and if we can show that we can win, will stay if the numbers are comparable.

5) Maybe Perry and Arte realized that what they would get back for Ohtani wasn't worth the chance of signing him (kind of the flip of what teams have to consider when trading for him).

6) When I went by the team store today at about 3:45 pm, there were 30+ people in there buying mostly Ohtani merchandise.\

 

Now, having said all that:

1) If we are going all in, we should go all in a bit more and continue to upgrade, without totally decimating the team (by say trading Joyce, Silseth, Bachman, etc.).

2) A discussion needs to be had at some point with him and his agent, if that winning is important to him, and we don't make the postseason this year, it isn't due to our lack of trying. It has much more to do with the team's health and that he and Trout have only been in the same lineup about 60% of the time, and even then, he wasn't a 2-way play and star for all those games.

3) Can we please end the whole "Angels are wasting Trout and Ohtani's careers' theme? If Ohtani stays, it's his life, as long as we continue to try and improve and win.

 

Finally

1) I know that @Jeff Fletcher has disagreed with me in the past about the idea of presenting Ohtani with a sales pitch of committing to spending a certain amount every year independent of Ohtani's deal (it's not likely that a player's contract could have, or that MLB would agree to such a clause because of the potential long term impact on future deals, but then again, they might frown upon agreeing to give an ownership stake in the team as part of the deal for the same reason), one can have a handshake deal to do exactly that. The reason why we would give him multiple opt-outs would be how we ensure that we live up to our commitments. He can always opt out, if we don't spend as we promised.

 

2) Whatever team does sign Ohtani (and I sure hope it is us), needs to consider something. Let's assume that Ohtani gets about $55 million/year deal for about 8 to 10 years. Whatever team that signs him to that, is going to want to win and most likely will have a payroll without Ohtani around $200+ million/year already, and probably higher. That's one of the supposed reasons why the Dodgers lowered their payroll this year to reset their luxury tax hit.

 

However, when one adds in Ohtani's future contract, that will push just about any team over the luxury tax, and many teams like the Mets, Padres, Dodgers, Yankees, etc. into a position where they are $40 million or more over the luxury tax. I believe it is at that point that a team starts to have its 1st round draft pick pushed back 10 spots in the 1st round (unless the team finishes in the bottom 6 teams in record, in which case it is its second round pick). 

 

Whatever team realistically signs Ohtani is going to hit that threshold, which will over the life of the contract, hinder that team's ability to draft as high quality players, especially in the first round. Granted, if the team goes deep into the postseason year in and year out, who cares, there's *that* much of a difference of picking 28th or 38th. 

 

Still, Ohtani's deal will most likely hamper the future overall organization for whatever team realistically signs him. 

Whatever team does sign Ohtani will also need to adjust their rotation to allow him to pitch every six (or possibly seven) days.  I do not think it is in his or the teams best interest to have him in a five man rotation.

So the question will be, how open are the other starters on the team to accommodating this schedule change.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

[VladdyforHOF]

8 minutes ago, Slegnaac said:

Whatever team does sign Ohtani will also need to adjust their rotation to allow him to pitch every six (or possibly seven) days.  I do not think it is in his or the teams best interest to have him in a five man rotation.

So the question will be, how open are the other starters on the team to accommodating this schedule change.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Good point. I think that also gives the Angels an advantage to re-sign him, given that our rotation is already structured this way.

[Angel Oracle]

1 hour ago, Revad said:

Of course you can improve the lottery chances by having good scouting, but not many work out.  Someone here will remember the percentages of players that make it to MLB… might slim as I seem to recall.

Rays nod head in approval.

[Jeff Fletcher]

2 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

So in your opinion halos made the right move. I think they did rolling the dice right choice.

I have no idea if it’s right or wrong. 
 

But it’s more interesting to me to watch them gamble by trying to win now than to gamble by trying to win in the future. 

Edited July 28, 2023 by Jeff Fletcher

[tomsred]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

After 7 losing seasons this was the right move. This weekend will tell a lot of rest of season. 

I don't think this weekend will tell us that much about the rest of the season.  The rest of the season is two months long.  It won't tell us exactly when and for how long until our injured players will be ready to contribute, and what shape they will be in.  It also won't tell us who will get injured in August and September.  It won't tell us who will go cold and who gets hot.  Two months is a long time in baseball, a full third of a season, and probably the most stressful third if you are a contender for the postseason.  The players have a better focus than the fans, take one day at a time.  Also, what are the teams we are chasing for the wild card spot going to do, and how will they perform? 

[Angel Oracle]

28 minutes ago, tomsred said:

I don't think this weekend will tell us that much about the rest of the season.  The rest of the season is two months long.  It won't tell us exactly when and for how long until our injured players will be ready to contribute, and what shape they will be in.  It also won't tell us who will get injured in August and September.  It won't tell us who will go cold and who gets hot.  Two months is a long time in baseball, a full third of a season, and probably the most stressful third if you are a contender for the postseason.  The players have a better focus than the fans, take one day at a time.  Also, what are the teams we are chasing for the wild card spot going to do, and how will they perform? 

It’s the next 25 games, all vs over .500 teams, that will likely dictate how they do.

One more late innings reliever would help towards that.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Angel Oracle

[Angels 1961]

50 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I have no idea if it’s right or wrong. 
 

But it’s more interesting to me to watch them gamble by trying to win now than to gamble by trying to win in the future. 

I will take that as a yes