Ohtani's future contract

[ten ocho recon scout]

Let me first say that even if it crushes the org, I hope we resign him. I don't care if we have a crystal ball that says "he'll go full Rendon in 2 years" and we still give him a gazillion dollars.

That said...

In terms of actual front offices, who are the ones actually spending the money, how do you think they see it?

I keep seeing 500 and 600 mill. And I guess that "makes sense"

 But forgetting how popular he is right now, and how biased we are, how many owners are going to be willing to gamble on that kind of money?

And I'm not saying there won't be. Who knows, maybe the entire league is gearing up to sell stock to sign him for a billion.

But looking at all these bad mega deals out there you have to wonder. Both his age and his two-way player angles are pretty risky, if we're being honest. Again, I would be ecstatic if it's us, and we kill the franchise in doing it. But I wonder if secretly, owners and GMs don't see this unicorn era lasting as long as we're all hoping it does, and shying away from that kind of money.

[totdprods]

Said it elsewhere, but watching Ohtani is about as entertaining as the Angels winning. 

Even if his contract is prohibitively expensive, I hope they keep him. I’ve seen the Angels win before, I’ll hopefully one day see the Angels win again, but Ohtani is once-in-a-lifetime.

Obviously, both is better. 

Edited July 19, 2023 by totdprods

[OhtaniSan]

I think Ohtani gets a one-of-its-kind contract that sets a new record for total $$$ and highest AAV. I can envision him receiving a heavily front loaded contract for the first half of his 8-10yr contract, maybe up to 60mil a year, before then settling down in the 40mil a year range for the rest of the contract. This creates a way to pay him his true two-way value now and then have a drop off when Ohtani likely switches to just pitching or hitting.

Year 1-5: 60mil AAV

Year 5-10: 40 mil AAV

Total: 500mil

 

Now that i look at that, even this seems like less than he might end up getting on the open market.

[Stradling]

It’s so tough because it’s going to be a bad contract. So if we don’t re-sign him I’ll feel like we dodged a bad contract long term. If we do re-sign him then I’ll get to enjoy watching him play.
I don’t begrudge baseball contracts and I won’t shit on a player because they age or get hurt. 

If he leaves us in free agency and signs with Seattle, Houston, Boston or the Rangers then he’s dead to me. Anyone else and I’ll root for him to play well. 

[Swordsman78]

Looking at this through the lens of entertainment (At the end of the day, all sports is entertainment), then I hope the Angels keep him.

Just look at the crowds at the Big A.  It is electric.

The number of  Japanese fans attending games continue to increase.

The Angel brand is getting world wide marketing.

The Angels are the biggest draw in baseball currently, Bigger than the Dodgers (which Arte craves) and are garnering the most worldwide attention.

Losing Ohtani, would relegate the Halos back to afterthought status.

[REDneck]

18 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Let me first say that even if it crushes the org, I hope we resign him. I don't care if we have a crystal ball that says "he'll go full Rendon in 2 years" and we still give him a gazillion dollars.

That said...

In terms of actual front offices, who are the ones actually spending the money, how do you think they see it?

I keep seeing 500 and 600 mill. And I guess that "makes sense"

 But forgetting how popular he is right now, and how biased we are, how many owners are going to be willing to gamble on that kind of money?

And I'm not saying there won't be. Who knows, maybe the entire league is gearing up to sell stock to sign him for a billion.

But looking at all these bad mega deals out there you have to wonder. Both his age and his two-way player angles are pretty risky, if we're being honest. Again, I would be ecstatic if it's us, and we kill the franchise in doing it. But I wonder if secretly, owners and GMs don't see this unicorn era lasting as long as we're all hoping it does, and shying away from that kind of money.

Crushes the org, full Rendon, gazillion dollars, bad mega deal, risky!

I hope you're not interviewing to be Ohtani's agent with this thread.

[totdprods]

Bad baseball contract, yes, almost undoubtedly, bad marketing/PR contract, probably not. 

He generates a ton of revenue, and even if most of it just lines ownership’s pockets or Ohtani personally, it still provides a benefit for the team on the other side of the ledger. Not to mention what records he may chase, or what he may become if he becomes a one-way player, or what he may add from a recruitment standpoint, Japan or otherwise, or in developing future two-way talent. 

Rendon will be off the books relatively soon. Aside from Trout, the team has a positive financial outlook, especially if Perry contributes to draft and trade well.

[TroutField]

I think the global marketing, advertising sales, merchandise sales, and international travelers that come see Shohei play will probably make up a lot of the lost money on the contract. 
 

We have to give every attempt to keep him, he’s just so good it’s amazing 

[Dtwncbad]

If I assess the Angel roster position by position, this team is mostly already rebuilt.

What would be the team’s biggest need in the offseason?

I would say a big bat and a premium starter.

That’s Ohtani and he is as popular and marketable as any player this franchise has ever had.

Also, most project that Ohtani will not get fully paid 2x for being both a stud hitter and a stud pitcher.   So while most huge contracts don’t age well, you can argue that an Ohtani contract would be a better value than most huge contracts.

My hope is Ohtani prefers to be here but is a smart enough business man to use free agency to ensure  he signs a contract (with the Angels) that truly reflects his value in the open market.

$600m over 13 years is $46m a year.  And yes these contracts always seem like a bad deal at the end, but fans forget that the length of the contract is not an indication that the team actually thinks the player will be highly productive for that length of time.  They don’t.  It’s just financing and spreading out the obligation.

If the Angels either win a World Series in the next five years with him and Trout on the same roster, this is very much worth it.

And if the team doesn’t win, then you have to live with it.  That’s sports.  But you gotta try.

Its not like the owner will have ANY meaningful change in their overall financial health with a $600m Ohtani contract.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Dtwncbad

[totdprods]

The big difference will be if Arte/new owner can really allow Perry/next FO to actually develop a pipeline of cheap internal talent. If they can do that, it won’t matter much what’s he’s being paid in 2028 or 2032 or how bad the contract is.

a good front office should be able to build around that contract regardless how it pans out, and given that Trout is really the only other contract that parallels a hypothetical Ohtani contract, the Angels are in good position, especially if Perry starts employing an Atlanta-esque approach by locking up Detmers, Neto, O’Hoppe to reasonable long-term deals and they stop making big splashes in FA.

[Blarg]

Now you guys get how Cardinals fans felt 12 years ago about their ROY and 3 time MVP. How could they not extend their guy for whatever he wants, right? 

[diamondclub]

7 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Now you guys get how Cardinals fans felt 12 years ago about their ROY and 3 time MVP. How could they not extend their guy for whatever he wants, right? 

Terrible comparison. Ohtani is in his prime right now.

[Angel Oracle]

I can’t see anymore than $500 million, because he is turning 30 next season, plus the 2 way thing at its’ best is possibly only for another 2-3 seasons.

10 years/$500 million, opt out after 2 or 3 seasons 

First 3 years, $60 million per, expiration of that coincides with expiration of Rendon’s contract.

Remaining 7 years, $45.7 million per

Still concerned about allocating this much to any 30 year-old to be.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Angel Oracle

[Dtwncbad]

14 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Now you guys get how Cardinals fans felt 12 years ago about their ROY and 3 time MVP. How could they not extend their guy for whatever he wants, right? 

I am by no means saying Albert was a good deal for the Angels, but the truth is the Cardinals did not win a WS over the ten year Pujols contract.

So maybe they should have signed their ROY and 3 time MVP to have the legend of Albert Pujols all to themselves, even if they don’t win any additional WS with him.

Obviously the first choice is to win, but I would rather not win the WS with Ohtani than not win the WS without him.

Keep the legend in house.

[T.G.]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

If he leaves us in free agency and signs with Seattle, Houston, Boston or the Rangers then he’s dead to me. Anyone else and I’ll root for him to play well. 

You're okay with him going to the Dodgers?

[ten ocho recon scout]

20 minutes ago, diamondclub said:

Terrible comparison. Ohtani is in his prime right now.

He is, but pujols basically was, too.

If we're being honest, so was trout...

Again, I hope we pay out of our ass and keep him. And all contracts are bad. 

But I'm just wondering if he has to pick one or the other in a few years, if the "unicorn" appeal dies down and it's a huge overpay.

[ten ocho recon scout]

15 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I can’t see anymore than $500 million, because he is turning 30 next season, plus the 2 way thing at its’ best is possibly only for another 2-3 seasons.

10 years/$500 million, opt out after 2 or 3 seasons 

First 3 years, $60 million per, expiration of that coincides with expiration of Rendon’s contract.

Remaining 7 years, $45.7 million per

Still concerned about allocating this much to any 30 year-old to be.

And that's kind of what I'm getting at. He's obviously th3 best player in the game. By a wide margin. That said, so much of it right now is "hype" (not in a bad way) because of what he's doing.

At the exact point he can't do it anymore, the shine is off.

I guess I'm just wondering what he's worth once that happens?

 

As fans, Angel or any other team, he's in the "money's no object!" category. But I wonder if owners feel the same.

[Blarg]

33 minutes ago, diamondclub said:

Terrible comparison. Ohtani is in his prime right now.

No, it's the same situation. You have a generational talent that is your homegrown guy looking to walk. Fan favorite, perennial MVP, this is the guy you keep. But the the Cardinals decided to make a business decision based on multiple factors including regression. 

Ohtani will regress but the question is how quickly because he is using his body in a higher stress level of any other comparable player. Does he burn his arm up and his velocity nose dives in 4 years or does his hit tools suffer because of insufficient downtime between starts. None of this you can answer so he may just be a generational talent that lasts only one generation. He is 6 years through a 10 year cycle as is. When he hits 33 and on, what kind of player would he be? 

That's what the Cardinals organization looked at and offered an 8 year contract knowing they are probably going to eat the last couple years when Pujols hit his late 30's. But their fans weren't happy with that and less so when he left.

 

[Angelsjunky]

As with his trade value, we can't really rely on past precedents in predicting an Ohtani contract - just as teams would likely offer prospect packages that would far surpass previous rentals, his free agency contract will almost certainly be much higher than past precedents would imply.

With that in mind, I think $50M AAV over ten years is the bare minimum, and it may go up as high as something absurd like 12/$720M. Bidding will be fierce and make Arte blanche.

One thing to keep in mind is Ohtani's value as a business acquisition -- for marketing, ticket sales, jerseys, etc. And of course historical value. So it isn't about WAR, or performance value only -- especially for a team owner. It is about having the most unusual player in baseball history wearing your jersey for the next decade or so. Oh, and he's pretty good.

 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Angelsjunky

[Swordsman78]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

No, it's the same situation. You have a generational talent that is your homegrown guy looking to walk. Fan favorite, perennial MVP, this is the guy you keep. But the the Cardinals decided to make a business decision based on multiple factors including regression. 

Ohtani will regress but the question is how quickly because he is using his body in a higher stress level of any other comparable player. Does he burn his arm up and his velocity nose dives in 4 years or does his hit tools suffer because of insufficient downtime between starts. None of this you can answer so he may just be a generational talent that lasts only one generation. He is 6 years through a 10 year cycle as is. When he hits 33 and on, what kind of player would he be? 

That's what the Cardinals organization looked at and offered an 8 year contract knowing they are probably going to eat the last couple years when Pujols hit his late 30's. But the fans weren't happy with that.

 

There is also the possibility that Pujos was 2-4 years older than he said he was.  So his 33 year old season may really have been his 36 year old season

[Taylor]

49 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Now you guys get how Cardinals fans felt 12 years ago about their ROY and 3 time MVP. How could they not extend their guy for whatever he wants, right? 

Interesting how you use Pujols for comparison instead of Trout.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, TroutField said:

I think the global marketing, advertising sales, merchandise sales, and international travelers that come see Shohei play will probably make up a lot of the lost money on the contract. 
 

We have to give every attempt to keep him, he’s just so good it’s amazing 

People always talk about the merchandising dollars but that’s not how it works. All MLB licensed merchandise is split amongst all teams and the players association. So Arte would get as much for the sale of a Judge jersey as he would an Ohtani jersey. 

[Stradling]

31 minutes ago, T.G. said:

You're okay with him going to the Dodgers?

My brother who passed away of cancer was a Dodger fan, buried in a Dodger jersey I bought him. I don’t root for them but I also don’t openly root against them. 

[TroutField]

Trout and Ohtani get all the slack in the world for what they have done for the Angels. 
 

imagine if Ohtani went to San Francisco or one of the east coast teams, making 40-50 million a year and becomes ineffective or hurt?. Or if Trout had signed with Philadelphia and had health issues and didn’t perform to his career norms, like this year? The fans and media would turn on them quickly,That wouldn’t happen in Anaheim. He has to consider that as well when making a decision in free agency, I’m sure. 

[tdawg87]

Blarg doesn't want Ohtani,  confirmed