The Official Shohei Ohtani Trade Return Thread (if the Angels trade him)

[Second Base]

Just now, Hubs said:

Dodgers would beat any prospect package here..... Pages, Cartaya, Pepiot, and another prospect?

And No Offense meant, but you're a prospect nerd. You might like prospects and potential better than current Angels players and current Angels success. There's nothing wrong with that...So are Jared Tims and his depressingly negative podcast partner. Even @taylorblakeward can be like that....I like prospects too, but they only pan out like of the 1/3 time. So you'd be getting one legit player back in a three player package. 

I just dont see the immense return that trading Ohtani is gonna bring. And I think if you move him, you can forget about resigning him in the offseason. That almost never happens.

A few things. 

1. If prospects panned out 1/3 of the time, that would be incredible. It's more like 1/10 of the time, but with 1st and 2nd rounders, I think it's like 60-70% make it, and half actually stay. 

2. Dodgers won't happen. 

3. Getting the 80th pick in conservation for losing Ohtani is far less than what they can be get in a trade. 

4. I doubt he re-ups with the Angels. He actually wants to win. 

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, Angels 1961 said:

Saw few packages on bleachers report. One from Dodgers Michael Busch, Mick Fasso, Andy Pages, Nick Nastrini and Josue De Paula                                                                                                                                                       Yankees Anthony Volpe, Jason Dominguez and Spencer Jones                                                                                                                                                                                           Texas   Evan Carter, Luisangel Acuna and Brock Porter                                                                                                                                                                                                       Giants   Kyle Harrison, Marco Luciano and Carson Whisenhunt                                                                                                                                                                                            Tampa  Junior Caminero, Kyle Manzardo and Santiago Suarez

Excellent formatting.  Well done.

[DMVol]

1 minute ago, Hubs said:

I just dont think the package is gonna be that earth shattering Juan Soto package. Not midseason before his free agent walk year. Think about what the Angels gave up for a rental in Texieria...and add 50%. 

 

I don't discount or dismiss that at all.....I just don't think we know....if you get the Yanks and Dogs in a bidding war for the best player since Babe Ruth, I just don't think we know...

[Jason]

I don’t follow prospects like many of you here, so I’ll just take your word for it. 

[Hubs]

2 minutes ago, Second Base said:

A few things. 

1. If prospects panned out 1/3 of the time, that would be incredible. It's more like 1/10 of the time, but with 1st and 2nd rounders, I think it's like 60-70% make it, and half actually stay. 

2. Dodgers won't happen. 

3. Getting the 80th pick in conservation for losing Ohtani is far less than what they can be get in a trade. 

4. I doubt he re-ups with the Angels. He actually wants to win. 

I think the Angels want to win, but they need to spend more on scouting and player development, and invest in front office architecture, and a better manager.

 

[Stradling]

24 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

@Stradling Again, have a little fun with this. Let's see your trade package. 

You can argue with me and others all you want, but I think you're getting a haul for Ohtani, even if he's a rental. None of the guys in the Reds trade package I put together are higher than their 5th best prospect in their org.

The Reds and Orioles have the type of current roster and farm system to sustain the loss for two months of having Ohtani give them a damn good chance at winning the World Series, all the while filling the seats in their respective stadiums. 

Ok here’s the max value with names attached. One of the Dodgers catching prospects and Gavin Lux. 

[Second Base]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

I think the Angels want to win, but they need to spend more on scouting and player development, and invest in front office architecture, and a better manager.

 

Preaching to the choir. Except I don't care so much about who the manager is though. 

[Angel Oracle]

15 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I'd rather have Matt McLain over Jonathan India

 

I’d acquire McLain straight up for Ohtani, maybe even trade Ohtani and Paris for McLain if needed?

Then move McLain to 2B immediately, and move Drury to 1B.

[Second Base]

I seriously doubt Arizona would pay this, but I would totally accept Druw Jones and Ivan Melendez for Ohtani. Jones is elite, he's just young and injured at the moment, similar to when the Padres got Tatis Jr. from the White Sox for James Shields. Tatis was oozing upside, but he was raw, a lottery ticket and was relatively unknown. Jones is in a similar boat. And Melendez is just an incredible hitter. Strong, great bat speed. Sub par at 3B but getting better, not bad at 1B. Could definitely DH at some point too. 

But Jones is the #2 overall pick last year and Melendez was their 2nd rounder. That's a lot to give up for half season of Ohtani. I can see Melendez+, but likely not Jones. 

And the Orioles have to figure out where they're going to fit Kjerstad and Westberg. Getting either of them, particularly Kjerstad would be a great deal. 

[Angels 1961]

56 minutes ago, Hubs said:

You send him to one of those two teams, he's not coming back. You send him to the Reds or Orioles or Giants, and there's a chance he comes back.

No matter where you trade him he is not coming back. If you do not trade he is not coming bad. Angel fans and ownership have shown little to really show appreciation for him. He should be getting standing ovation each AB. Chants in Seattle for him none in Anaheim. Halos fans time is running out show some real support you want him back.

[Angels 1961]

I think Angels get more than many think for Ohtani.

[totdprods]

If the Angels do trade him, I do think it will

1) be an overpay - someone is going to be tantalized way too much and will offer a package better than a typical rental 

and 

2) still will probably be less than what we’d be hoping for here

I do think a potential acquiring team will offer up more of a quantity over quality package - meaning more solid prospects/lotto tickets in absence of premier prospect names. For this reason, I would look at teams who will have a 40man crunch this winter…teams that may have guys like Walsh and Rojas and Shoemaker were pre-MLB debut…guys who looked like they’d hold their own in the bigs but didn’t have a ton of hype. Closest comp is the Machado trade, IMO.

I do think there’s a chance the Angels consider sweetening the pot - depending on the return, I could see anyone from Sandoval to Estevez to Ward to Rengifo to Adell being involved. 

Personally, I’m hoping Tampa because of their farm depth, or a team like Baltimore or Arizona surprising and making a real aggressive offer even if it’s from a pure rental POV, paying a high price because they 1) have the farm and 2) want to make a strong push to get a championship to kick off their new core arriving.

Edited July 14, 2023 by totdprods

[Angelsfan1984]

I do not want to see him go...but if he had to...

Probably the biggest win/win trade if he had to go would be an Ohtani for Soto deal. Could throw in some other prospect pieces to make it work out for both sides. That gives the padres another front end starter/MOTO bat (also on the west coast), and the angels get 1.5 years of soto and plug a massive hole in the OF.  Again, you have to think the Angels do everything they can to resign him but Soto would definitely soften the blow.

[AngelStew43]

The Von Hayes special-5 for 1, or 6 for 2.  

Angels get: pitchers Miller and Sheehan, INF Busch, OF Deluca, and Catcher Dalton Rushing

Dodgers get: Ohtani, Renfroe, and C Max Stassi. 

[Angel Oracle]

I’m confused.

Wouldn’t the Halos get a compensation round A pick (around #40), if losing Ohtani?

[angels1963]

I think you have to break this trade of Ohtani into what you get for a guy leading baseball in HR's among other things. Then what could the return be for one of baseball's very best pitchers. We shouldn't forget some of the packages that have been traded for star players at the deadline such as Soto to SD, so how do you compare Ohtani to Soto and what that return should be and then you still have the pitching side of the trade. I wouldn't be surprised if this turned into a 3 team trade if it even happened at all.

[jsnpritchett]

8 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I’m confused.

Wouldn’t the Halos get a compensation round A pick (around #40), if losing Ohtani?

No.  Here are the new rules:

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

Here's the key part for Ohtani/the Angels.  Competitive Balance Round B comes after Round 2--so picks after that are going to be somewhere in the 65-80 range, depending on the year:

"If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case.

The 10 teams in this category: Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Nationals, Rangers and White Sox."

[Angel Oracle]

Then if he is probably leaving, you have to trade him.

The B round pick isn’t all that.

[BTH]

To LAA: 3B Curtis Mead, INF Jonathan Aranda, & LHP Mason Montgomery

To TB: TWP Shohei Ohtani

That’s a 55 FV prospect, a major league hitter that’s squeezed out of the Rays roster due to a logjam, and a near-ready SP prospect in the next tier outside the T100 prospects.

[Jay]

3 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

 

Maybe we need a Karen reaction? hmmm

To be honest I think we have plenty of reactions already.

[Jay]

Who knows, if there are multiple teams that want Ohtani for a playoff run the offers could be interesting.

[Angel Oracle]

Maybe all of these injuries are a blessing, in that it increases the chance of trading him?

Hard to contend with this number of injuries to key players?

May need to focus on 2024 and beyond?   Although haven’t we said something like that for years?

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by Angel Oracle

[jsnpritchett]

Just now, Angel Oracle said:

Maybe all of these injuries are a blessing, in that it increases the chance of trading him?

Hard to contend with this number of injuries to key players?

 

That's pretty much how I'm looking at it.  To me, the worst-case scenario would be doing just well enough to carry on the illusion of a real shot at the playoffs.  If that happens, Minasian probably ends up doing nothing or even trading prospects to get veterans on expiring contracts, then missing the playoffs, not signing Ohtani, and getting a compensation pick in the 65-80 range.

I either want a huge winning streak or a complete collapse. 

[Paolo11]

I agree with the OP-- I'm not trading him.  However if he asks to be traded, there are roughly 12 teams with legit playoff aspirations... Most if whom won't consider resigning Ohtani in the off-season....but with enough "motivation" to deal,  because this may be their opportunity to win before he signs with the Dodgers (or other team that's better organizationally).  Atlanta doesn't need him to win, but teams like the D-backs, Reds, Marlins, Dodgers and maybe the Giants......and Ohtani would put any of the AL contenders in the playoff driver's seat.  He gives you the best chance to win games 1, 4 & 7 of a playoff series.  I'd play one off of another and see if you get something you like.

That said, prospects are a risky proposition and are just as likely to flame-out.  If I'm only offered someone's 10th best AA 18 year old  or other low-potential prospects, I'd rather keep Shohei & try to woo him  in FA.    

[Angelsjunky]

I think one way or another it is going to be the Dodgers. They've got a bunch of solid prospects - no great ones, but (according to Fangraphs) two 55, four 50, two 45+, and seven 45.

I could see them offering a 55, 50, 45+, 45 package. Gotta take that, considering.