PECOTA Standings.

[Inside Pitch]

Baseball Prospectus really likes the Angels' offensive potential.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/

Currently has them as potentially winning 86 games -- scoring over 750 runs, thats 130 more runs that last year.

[Blarg]

If this were a car you are tuning for performance you would like to see the torque curve to be like the Angels graph where it rises and holds before dropping off. 

[Revad]

I think 86 is realistic (just ask Second Base) but I’m hoping for 90.  I haven’t seen the Angels ahead of the Mariners in other rankings.

[TempeAngel]

I think Texas is underrated.

 

[Angelsjunky]

I think Oakland is rated.

[Blarg]

For the Angels it is a prove it year more than a projection. Astros will be on top until they prove they are not the best team in the AL but for every other team in the West division they have to prove they are even a 2nd place team in the West let alone a playoff team. 

[Revad]

SpoilerThe Angels Aim for the Middle

Every year, I make note of the fact that the way we construct our odds favors teams with strong starting lineups, regardless of the depth behind those lineups. We use a single initial projected team winning percentage to run every simulation, and that projected winning percentage mostly assumes full health. Sometimes that means that a team you’d expect to struggle if any stars miss time (yes, I mean the Angels) fares better on our odds than you’d expect them to in real life.

 

Not so in Anaheim (they might be the Los Angeles Angels, but they still play in Mickey Mouse’s shadow) this year. The ZiPS odds, which account for injuries by simulating unique seasons with varying playing time for each player, like the Angels more than our odds this year. The team has finally done enough adding around the edges, as Mike Petriello recently noted, that it’s no longer just Trout, Ohtani, and a pile of below replacement-level teammates. 

Their reward? An AL West field that’s difficult and only getting more so. The Astros just won the World Series. The Mariners are ascendant, having broken their playoff drought behind Julio Rodríguez’s triumphant debut. The Rangers might have the best starting rotation in baseball. The A’s… okay, the A’s are bad, but the other three teams in the division are good. The middle class of the AL is better than ever. Last year, we projected eight AL teams to win 80 or more games. This year, it’s 10. The path to an AL West title or a Wild Card berth is littered with solid competitors.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/six-takeaways-from-our-playoff-odds/

Heck, last year the Angels and Astros were the only AL West teams with a preseason projection of 80 or more wins, and this year we think every team other than the A’s will clear that bar. The Angels front office is doing what they weren’t able to accomplish in recent years: surrounding the best players in the game with competent major leaguers. Unfortunately, everyone else is improving too, and the end result is 39% playoff odds. That doesn’t mean they’re going to miss the postseason, but it does mean they have a tough road ahead.

[BTH]

Does that include the Matt Moore signing?

[Revad]

3 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Does that include the Matt Moore signing?

That Fangraphs article (by Ben Clemens) was posted today, but I’m pretty sure it was written before the trade.

[Inside Pitch]

20 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Does that include the Matt Moore signing?

Prior to the signing.

[Taylor]

15 minutes ago, Revad said:

That Fangraphs article (by Ben Clemens) was posted today, but I’m pretty sure it was written before the trade.

Fangraph article 

Posted today, pretty sure

Written before trade

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Revad said:

That Fangraphs article (by Ben Clemens) was posted today, but I’m pretty sure it was written before the trade.

Yeah, but I was talking about PECOTA.

[BTH]

49 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Prior to the signing.

Do you know if they update it daily?

[Erstad Grit]

Texas can be a lot better but man DeGrom already being paused must be causing a fan panic. 

I think we're 86-88 but a resurgent Rendon, which I'm not counting on, could easily put us in 91+

[Taylor]

I'm pretty sure Rendon is about 3 years older than he claims.

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Trendon said:

Do you know if they update it daily?

Daily once the season starts.  Now that they have the 2023 season up and through ST they may be back to regularly updating it.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

[AngelsLakersFan]

4 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

So we've gotten worse!

[Vegas Halo Fan]

On 2/16/2023 at 8:50 AM, Angelsjunky said:

I think Oakland is rated.

Local media now believes that it is just a matter of where in Las Vegas that the ballpark will be built. Their misery will end.

[Revad]

5 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

So we've gotten worse!

And the Astros have gotten better.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

3 hours ago, Revad said:

And the Astros have gotten better.

After losing Verlander

[Pancake Bear]

Somehow losing the reigning Cy Young winner and bringing in 36-year old Jose Abreu is considered a big win of an off-season. 

[Tank]

Is PECOTA the same as the Pythagorean stuff? And wasn’t there a running joke here for the Pythagorean stuff several years ago? 

[Taylor]

12 hours ago, Tank said:

Is PECOTA the same as the Pythagorean stuff? And wasn’t there a running joke here for the Pythagorean stuff several years ago? 

The "pantherian standings," as dubbed by mrwicked, I believe.

[floplag]

23 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

So we've gotten worse!

Yeah im not understanding that at all.