PECOTA Standings.

[ten ocho recon scout]

On 2/16/2023 at 7:23 AM, Inside Pitch said:

Currently has them as potentially winning 86 games -- scoring over 750 runs, thats 130 more runs that last year.

So then our pitching will suck this year. 

 

And our punt return guys.

 

[Taylor]

5 hours ago, floplag said:

Yeah im not understanding that at all.
 

I think PECOTA has woken up to the Angels underperforming every season.

[floplag]

9 minutes ago, Taylor said:

I think PECOTA has gone woke. 

Can we please keep the personal or political shit off this board... thanks

[Taylor]

32 minutes ago, floplag said:

Can we please keep the personal or political shit off this board... thanks

You're welcome.

[AngelsLakersFan]

7 hours ago, floplag said:

Yeah im not understanding that at all.
 

I haven’t looked at it but I’m going to wager it has significant regression from Walsh, Rendon and Trout.

[Inside Pitch]

10 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I haven’t looked at it but I’m going to wager it has significant regression from Walsh, Rendon and Trout.

Stassi too.

Not so much regression as it's pretty much the norm for projection systems to view guys coming off poor seasons and entering their early decline phases as being on the downsides of their careers.  Projection systems also try to allocate playing time based on previous playing time and more importantly a team's stated roster -- I know you know all this, I'm just trying to explain my thought process and why I can see why the data is what it is. Going into 2023 they are looking at Walsh coming off an 81 OPS+ (22), season .vs a 127 OPS+ season (21).  In Rendon's case we're talking about a 97 OPS+ across 105 games over two seasons.  Any system that allocates the bulk of the ABs to those two is going to make for a worse team projection.  Stassi saw his OPS+ drop 40 points 21/22  and he doesn't have the greatest track record when it comes to offense.  It's not difficult to see how a system that is devoid of context to a degree would have a less favorable opinion of all three.

When I say context, I'm talking about how projection systems don't consider what the injury was or how it could have impacted performance. They don't consider who the manager is and what their tendencies may have been or will be. They just math out outcomes based on past performance and likely usage (also based on past performance). There is likely a ton of noise with the all of the MI.  Rengifo's previous track record. Fletcher's back to back meh seasons -- Drury's career prior to 2022 and again, trying to guess how the playtime will be spread out.

The big takeaway and the reason for optimism when looking at these things is that Urshela, Renfroe, and Drury ALL have league average or better projections in fact as a whole if you use the median projection across all the systems for each of these players they are ALL projected to be at least 10% better than league average.  All three are massive upgrades and huge improvements compared to what they had and all three should help offset any possible injuries or downturn in actual performance by the projected starters.

The other big takeaway -- the part of the team that the entirety of the projection world is sour on is the bullpen, the one spot where projections are consistently off on because A: RP are flakes (Credit to @Blarg), and B: managerial usage can have the biggest impact.  This isn't to say that Nevin will be any better than Maddon was with the pen usage, although I do believe he will more closely follow whatever Tamin's algorithms say to do, but there is reason to believe the pen might be a case of "the whole being greater than the sum of it's parts".   

There is an actual pathway for the team to get league average performance from an established player at every offensive spot except catcher where Stassi should be looked at with a great deal of skepticism and SS where a 100 OPS+ may be a stretch but league average for the position may not be out of reach.  Whether or not that's enough to make the postseason I don't know but it's a better starting position than they have been in since the prime Aybar/Kendrick days.

[TempeAngel]

86 wins.

Last year the Mariners were the #6 seed in the AL with 86 wins and the Phillies were the #6 seed in the NL with 87 wins.

Does 86 wins get the Angels in the playoffs this year? If not, why?

[ScruffytheJanitor]

On 2/16/2023 at 10:08 AM, TempeAngel said:

I think Texas is underrated.

I dunno man -- people are really excited about their pitching haul, but DeGrom is carrying a lot of weight there. There is a real possibility that he is surrounded by a bunch of mediocrity. Their outfield is still pretty meh, they have nothing at third base and their depth is not very good. Now matter how good they are at 1st/2nd/ Short/ C, most scenarios probably have them as a well-below average offense. 

Is DeGrom, half an offense, and a solid bullpen really enough to win half their games? I'm not sold yet. 

[TempeAngel]

7 minutes ago, ScruffytheJanitor said:

I dunno man -- people are really excited about their pitching haul, but DeGrom is carrying a lot of weight there. There is a real possibility that he is surrounded by a bunch of mediocrity. Their outfield is still pretty meh, they have nothing at third base and their depth is not very good. Now matter how good they are at 1st/2nd/ Short/ C, most scenarios probably have them as a well-below average offense. 

Is DeGrom, half an offense, and a solid bullpen really enough to win half their games? I'm not sold yet. 

I hope you're right.

[ScruffytheJanitor]

Just now, TempeAngel said:

I hope you're right.

Look, I'm probably underselling Martin Perez and Eovaldi (Heaney I think I have about right), but I've never been big on Eovaldi and Perez could be an OK #2 - even if, as I expect, he takes a small step back. 

I also think they are VERY susceptible to injuries much like we were last season. They are HIGHLY dependent on about six players staying healthy AND reaching somewhere near the high-end of their projections. I'm not sure if Josh Jung or Jack Leiter are enough to save the day if they deal with any injuries. 

One more offseason and they could really be scary, but I need to see it first. 

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

20 minutes ago, ScruffytheJanitor said:

One more offseason and they could really be scary, but I need to see it first. 

People said the same thing about us for awhile now and some are saying similar things today. Hope to prove them wrong but...

Edited February 21, 2023 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, TempeAngel said:

86 wins.

Last year the Mariners were the #6 seed in the AL with 86 wins and the Phillies were the #6 seed in the NL with 87 wins.

Does 86 wins get the Angels in the playoffs this year? If not, why?

In 2011 the Angels had 86 wins and missed the playoffs. In 2012 they had 89 wins and missed the playoffs. It's not a defined number that makes the playoffs, it's the number greater than the competition in 3 divisions.

I doubt 86 wins puts them in the playoffs and if it did then I wouldn't feel like a team barely over .500 has much chance of advancing. Then again it's the hottest teams at the end of the season not the aggregate wins over 162 that fare the best. 

[TempeAngel]

58 minutes ago, Blarg said:

In 2011 the Angels had 86 wins and missed the playoffs. In 2012 they had 89 wins and missed the playoff

 Obviously every season is different but you can't compare 2011/2012 to 2022. The playoff format expanded from 10 to 12 teams last year.

Division games are going from 19 to 13 games this year. I wonder if the PECOTA number is factoring that change into the number.

As to a low seed advancing, the Phillies were the #6 seed last year...

[Revad]

10 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

There is an actual pathway for the team to get league average performance from an established player at every offensive spot except catcher where Stassi should be looked at with a great deal of skepticism and SS where a 100 OPS+ may be a stretch but league average for the position may not be out of reach.  Whether or not that's enough to make the postseason I don't know but it's a better starting position than they have been in since the prime Aybar/Kendrick days.

What if we get a couple of months of Trout, Ohtani, Rendon and Ward all healthy and rested, and the rest of the offense is league average or slightly above?  This is going to be fun.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

11 hours ago, TempeAngel said:

86 wins.

Last year the Mariners were the #6 seed in the AL with 86 wins and the Phillies were the #6 seed in the NL with 87 wins.

Does 86 wins get the Angels in the playoffs this year? If not, why?

The Mariners were projected to win 86 gsmes but they actually won 90. I think 90 wins gets us in the playoffs.

[TempeAngel]

2 hours ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

The Mariners were projected to win 86 gsmes but they actually won 90. I think 90 wins gets us in the playoffs.

Yep, I meant to say the Rays. They were the #6 seed last year with 86 wins.

I agree. 90 should get us in.