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4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

BWAR for Duffy, Gosselin and MacKinnon add up to -1.8. BWAR for Urshela 3.1. 

While it may not ultimately translate to 4-5 wins, this is a very clever, inexpensive way to help the team improve fairly significantly at a rather low cost.  This team has a lot of ground to make up, but hopefully a series of moves like this can be done to help us get there.  It is by far the better strategy, in terms of long-term vision, than tossing a ton of money at someone like Correa or Turner.

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Fangraphs
Combined 3b players not named Rendon or Rengifo
-0.8 WAR in 348 PA

Combined 1b production from players not named Walsh
-0.9 WAR in 217 PA

Rengifo got 125 PA at 3b which means that someone else had to play 2b when he was there.  Pretty much the combine number of PA that Maybfield, Wade and Stefanic got there for -0.6 WAR.

Of course that's about 690 PA.  So the -2.3 WAR needs to be prorated.  

Urshela has had 1469 PA over the last four seasons with 7.0 WAR.  That's .00476515 WAR per PA.  Or assuming he gets about 450 PA with the halos, about 2.2 WAR.

-2.3 WAR in 690 PA prorated to 450 PA is -1.5 WAR.  

So the data shows about a 3.7 WAR difference by adding him.  
 

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1 hour ago, Docwaukee said:

Fangraphs
Combined 3b players not named Rendon or Rengifo
-0.8 WAR in 348 PA

Combined 1b production from players not named Walsh
-0.9 WAR in 217 PA

Rengifo got 125 PA at 3b which means that someone else had to play 2b when he was there.  Pretty much the combine number of PA that Maybfield, Wade and Stefanic got there for -0.6 WAR.

Of course that's about 690 PA.  So the -2.3 WAR needs to be prorated.  

Urshela has had 1469 PA over the last four seasons with 7.0 WAR.  That's .00476515 WAR per PA.  Or assuming he gets about 450 PA with the halos, about 2.2 WAR.

-2.3 WAR in 690 PA prorated to 450 PA is -1.5 WAR.  

So the data shows about a 3.7 WAR difference by adding him.  
 

Adding it in my head came out to around 4. I'm glad you did the math. Ok, so Urshela alone makes us  a 77 win team.

I don't subscribe to the improvement theory of current players, because I believe on a yearly basis, some will get worse, some will improve on a team such as this. It's not a team full of 24 year olds.

Anderson.... Pitching is hard to gauge with WAR but I think 2-3 wins should be a fair estimate. If we say he's replacing Syndergaard and his subsequent replacements after the deadline around with 1.5 wins. So they improve by one win with Anderson. 

So a 78 win team. We're going to need to unearth 10 wins somewhere. 

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5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Adding it in my head came out to around 4. I'm glad you did the math. Ok, so Urshela alone makes us  a 77 win team.

I don't subscribe to the improvement theory of current players, because I believe on a yearly basis, some will get worse, some will improve on a team such as this. It's not a team full of 24 year olds.

Anderson.... Pitching is hard to gauge with WAR but I think 2-3 wins should be a fair estimate. If we say he's replacing Syndergaard and his subsequent replacements after the deadline around with 1.5 wins. So they improve by one win with Anderson. 

So a 78 win team. We're going to need to unearth 10 wins somewhere. 

And health could add 5-7 wins. 

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There are various ways to improve the club, but Minasian has to be smart in terms of cost efficiency, given he likely does not have a ton of payroll to play with.  Adding Urshela, who could potentially add around 4 wins, at a cost of ~9mil for the year, is a great add.  Obviously, past performance does not guarantee future returns, so who knows if it'll pan out like that, but it's solid thinking nevertheless.  He will need to make a few more moves like that.

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3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Adding it in my head came out to around 4. I'm glad you did the math. Ok, so Urshela alone makes us  a 77 win team.

I don't subscribe to the improvement theory of current players, because I believe on a yearly basis, some will get worse, some will improve on a team such as this. It's not a team full of 24 year olds.

Anderson.... Pitching is hard to gauge with WAR but I think 2-3 wins should be a fair estimate. If we say he's replacing Syndergaard and his subsequent replacements after the deadline around with 1.5 wins. So they improve by one win with Anderson. 

So a 78 win team. We're going to need to unearth 10 wins somewhere. 

some of it has to come from health and improvement.  And some of it from straight up better luck where we were -8 wins in base runs.  Meaning, based on the number of runs we score per game vs. the number of runs we gave up, we should have been a .500 team.  We were the second worst in baseball in that regard.  Part of that 'bad luck' though came from poor roster construction.   Base runs takes sequencing out of the equation but this roster was built to sequence poorly on both sides of the ball.  With awesome clustered in one area (like the top of the lineup or starting pitching) and sheer utter horrible crap (bullpen and the other 5 spots in the lineup) clustered in the other.  

This is where depth come in.  Where the whole can actually be the sum of the part instead of less.  

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56 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

There are various ways to improve the club, but Minasian has to be smart in terms of cost efficiency, given he likely does not have a ton of payroll to play with.

I entered the offseason thinking that Minasian would need to make a shrewd trade or two this offseason.

Who knows if it’ll work out, but I think he’s gotta take a risk and try to catch lightning in a bottle.

Something like a toned-down version of the Marsh for O’Hoppe trade. Maybe that’s flipping someone like Silseth, Canning, or Junk for an outfielder with good underlying exit velocities and metrics.

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2 minutes ago, Trendon said:

I entered the offseason thinking that Minasian would need to make a shrewd trade or two this offseason.

Who knows if it’ll work out, but I think he’s gotta take a risk and try to catch lightning in a bottle.

Something like a toned-down version of the Marsh for O’Hoppe trade. Maybe that’s flipping someone like Silseth, Canning, or Junk for an outfielder with good underlying exit velocities and metrics.

If that's what your looking for, I suspect Silseth would be the one to trade.  Canning has no trade value after being out for so long with a significant injury, and Junk is basically a backend SP with not much more upside than that.

Silseth would probably be able to fetch a pretty decent OF prospect, but the question is, would we want to do that?  I am reluctant to part with our pitching prospects, given our history.

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Just now, Warfarin said:

If that's what your looking for, I suspect Silseth would be the one to trade.  Canning has no trade value after being out for so long with a significant injury, and Junk is basically a backend SP with not much more upside than that.

Silseth would probably be able to fetch a pretty decent OF prospect, but the question is, would we want to do that?  I am reluctant to part with our pitching prospects, given our history.

You’re probably right on Canning.

I think Junk could have some decent value. Entering 2022, he was ranked as a 40+ FV prospect.

Some players who were 40+ FV prospects I could see being swapped for Junk include Jake Burger, Diego Castillo, Seth Beer, Rodolfo Castro, Tucupita Marcano, and Lane Thomas.

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4 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Silseth would probably be able to fetch a pretty decent OF prospect, but the question is, would we want to do that?  I am reluctant to part with our pitching prospects, given our history.

I’d be open to it, since the Angels desperately need an outfielder.

They have Canning, Junk, Daniel, Rosenberg, Seminaris, Bush, Erla, Bachman, and Crow all in the upper minors.

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10 hours ago, totdprods said:

Playing around with that silly Trade Value Simulator site, I came up with..

Jose Suarez (12.8) to Baltimore for Anthony Santander and Dillon Tate (11.9)

Santander fills the other OF slot, Tate slots into back of pen. Tate was someone our new assistant pitching coach Hezel featured numerous times on his Twitter account, implying they worked together at Driveline. Sandoval, Ohtani, and Cobb are also featured as often.

Santander and Tate are both controlled for at least a couple seasons. Angels eat a little bit of arb money taking them instead of retaining Suarez, and will need to pony up a bit of cash to replace Suarez in the rotation, but could be a good way to address a couple needs.

This this this this this. Baltimore is desperate for SP, and we have a tiny bit of surplus to trade. Not a true surplus, but a desire to probably upgrade and a young pitcher who is replaceable. I wanted the Angels to trade for Santander at the deadline. He's a perfect fit. He played both corner OF spots, hits for power, and doesn't strike out a terrible amount. He would be an excellent 6 hitter. 

Tate is a local boy with great stuff. His mom actually worked with my wife for a bit. I know he'd be thrilled to be home. If the Angels had to throw in a middling prospect, so be it. This is the kind of trade they need to make like tomorrow. 

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2 hours ago, Trendon said:

I’d be open to it, since the Angels desperately need an outfielder.

They have Canning, Junk, Daniel, Rosenberg, Seminaris, Bush, Erla, Bachman, and Crow all in the upper minors.

The Angels really like Silseth and I think they view him as a FOTR starter.  I think it would have to be for a pretty amazing player and he would be the centerpiece.  

Personally, I think I would trade Suarez before him.  

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3 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

some of it has to come from health and improvement.  And some of it from straight up better luck where we were -8 wins in base runs.  Meaning, based on the number of runs we score per game vs. the number of runs we gave up, we should have been a .500 team.  We were the second worst in baseball in that regard.  Part of that 'bad luck' though came from poor roster construction.   Base runs takes sequencing out of the equation but this roster was built to sequence poorly on both sides of the ball.  With awesome clustered in one area (like the top of the lineup or starting pitching) and sheer utter horrible crap (bullpen and the other 5 spots in the lineup) clustered in the other.  

This is where depth come in.  Where the whole can actually be the sum of the part instead of less.  

If you're relying on luck to make the playoffs next year, then you're already screwed. I didn't see a single team this year make the playoffs based on luck. 

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5 minutes ago, Second Base said:

If you're relying on luck to make the playoffs next year, then you're already screwed. I didn't see a single team this year make the playoffs based on luck. 

you didn't read my post.  I was saying it was statistical bad luck with the way that base runs are calculated.  but it was the way the roster was constructed that caused it.  Having average players in place of some of the worst in baseball would change that dramatically.  

Let's look at the top ten offenses by number of PA by players with 0 or worse WAR and the cumulative WAR of those players.

NYY - 87, -0.5 for 3 players
CLE - 700, -2.5 for 8 players
STL - 370,  -0.5 for 5 players
NYM - 350, -0.9 for 8 players
MIL - 185, -0.5 for 3 players
LAD - 260, -1.6 for 5 players
HOU - 820, -2.4 for 8 players
ATL - 1140, -2.9 for 6 players
SEA - 850, -2.2 for 8 players
TOR -101, -0.3 for 2 players

LAA - 2571, -7 WAR for 24 players.  That a bit less than half of the team's total plate appearances.  

The point is that they ended up with fewer wins than they should have based on their raw numbers because of crap like this.  



 



 

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9 hours ago, Trendon said:

I’d be open to it, since the Angels desperately need an outfielder.

They have Canning, Junk, Daniel, Rosenberg, Seminaris, Bush, Erla, Bachman, and Crow all in the upper minors.

I think I would hang onto Silseth.  Given how rapidly they promoted him, I have to think they see a lot of potential in him.  We have to prepare for the possibility that Ohtani will depart in free agency.  If he does, our pitching surplus will be gone, and we'll need to rely on these young kids to step in and help absorb Ohtani's departure.

I think LF should be an easy enough position to fill that doesn't require shipping off any of our legit SP prospects.  Nimmo would be the prize, but if they aren't willing to dish out a contract that large (I suspect they aren't), there are various other options that they can find.

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5 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

you didn't read my post.  I was saying it was statistical bad luck with the way that base runs are calculated.  but it was the way the roster was constructed that caused it.  Having average players in place of some of the worst in baseball would change that dramatically.  

Let's look at the top ten offenses by number of PA by players with 0 or worse WAR and the cumulative WAR of those players.

NYY - 87, -0.5 for 3 players
CLE - 700, -2.5 for 8 players
STL - 370,  -0.5 for 5 players
NYM - 350, -0.9 for 8 players
MIL - 185, -0.5 for 3 players
LAD - 260, -1.6 for 5 players
HOU - 820, -2.4 for 8 players
ATL - 1140, -2.9 for 6 players
SEA - 850, -2.2 for 8 players
TOR -101, -0.3 for 2 players

LAA - 2571, -7 WAR for 24 players.  That a bit less than half of the team's total plate appearances.  

The point is that they ended up with fewer wins than they should have based on their raw numbers because of crap like this.  

Right.  The lowest hanging fruit, financially speaking, is to simply replace all of those sub-replacement performers with guys who could be at least replacement level.  That cost is low, and the acquisition of Urshela is a great example of attempting to do that.

LF and RP are the other low hanging fruit that should be improved without too significant of a financial investment.  SS will be considerably harder, but I would be interested to see if perhaps Soto's breakthrough could be a sign that he could be a solid SS for us.  The offensive performance was clearly unsustainable, but even modest offensive production should generate solid results with his defense.

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2 hours ago, Warfarin said:

I think LF should be an easy enough position to fill that doesn't require shipping off any of our legit SP prospects.

This is probably true.

But I’d be so desperate for a LF upgrade that I’d part with Silseth if, for whatever reason, they end up needing to trade for a LF instead of just signing one.

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7 hours ago, Docwaukee said:

you didn't read my post.  I was saying it was statistical bad luck with the way that base runs are calculated.  but it was the way the roster was constructed that caused it.  Having average players in place of some of the worst in baseball would change that dramatically.  

Let's look at the top ten offenses by number of PA by players with 0 or worse WAR and the cumulative WAR of those players.

NYY - 87, -0.5 for 3 players
CLE - 700, -2.5 for 8 players
STL - 370,  -0.5 for 5 players
NYM - 350, -0.9 for 8 players
MIL - 185, -0.5 for 3 players
LAD - 260, -1.6 for 5 players
HOU - 820, -2.4 for 8 players
ATL - 1140, -2.9 for 6 players
SEA - 850, -2.2 for 8 players
TOR -101, -0.3 for 2 players

LAA - 2571, -7 WAR for 24 players.  That a bit less than half of the team's total plate appearances.  

The point is that they ended up with fewer wins than they should have based on their raw numbers because of crap like this.  



 



 

Ok thank you for clarifying. Next question, do you believe Minasian should've known better when constructing last year's roster, port is this a simple care of hindsight? 

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3 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Ok thank you for clarifying. Next question, do you believe Minasian should've known better when constructing last year's roster, port is this a simple care of hindsight? 

Hell yes.   Many of us were screaming from the rooftops for more depth.  They walked into the season with two rookie ish corner OFers, almost no middle IF, and Trout and Rendon coming off injury with Duffy, Wade, Lagares and Kurt Suzuki on the bench.  Assuming Velazquez was the starter.  Fletcher and Rengifo were coming off stinkers.  Walsh needed help hitting lefties.  And no one had a clue if Ward was really anything more than an platoon bat who could provide avg. production.  They literally had Dillon Thomas, Monte Harrison, Sierra as their OF depth in the minors.  And Mayfield, Rojas and Stefanic as their IF depth in the minors.  

They completely set themselves up to have happen exactly what happened.  

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56 minutes ago, Docwaukee said:

Hell yes.   Many of us were screaming from the rooftops for more depth.  They walked into the season with two rookie ish corner OFers, almost no middle IF, and Trout and Rendon coming off injury with Duffy, Wade, Lagares and Kurt Suzuki on the bench.  Assuming Velazquez was the starter.  Fletcher and Rengifo were coming off stinkers.  Walsh needed help hitting lefties.  And no one had a clue if Ward was really anything more than an platoon bat who could provide avg. production.  They literally had Dillon Thomas, Monte Harrison, Sierra as their OF depth in the minors.  And Mayfield, Rojas and Stefanic as their IF depth in the minors.  

They completely set themselves up to have happen exactly what happened.  

Exactly, although I admit to liking the addition of Duffy. I guess at least the OFers had potential and one had a nice season. The entire IF was set-up for a disaster that ended up coming to fruition. 

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