AngelsWin Today: 2021 Angelswin.com Trade Deadline Series: Conclusion

[AngelsWin.com]

The Era of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani is Now

In this Angelswin.com Trade Deadline Series, we examined the Angels standings in the League and how it impacts their Playoff Odds, made some practical assumptions about their potential posture heading into the Trade Deadline (July 30th), determined their areas of need, and probed prospective partners in any deal, whether the Halos decide to buy or sell (or both!).

Here is a graphic of all of the teams with at least a 10% chance or more of making the playoffs in 2021, as of July 10th, 2021:

2021 MLB Playoff Odds for All Teams with >10% Chance as of July 10th, 2021

The top grouping represents the six Division leaders. Below that sit the Mets and the Rays. Further down, the Blue Jays, Rays, and Yankees are jockeying for position. Then, the grouping at the bottom, contains the Angels, Reds, Braves, and Phillies. It should be noted that as of July 15th, 2021 (5 days after this graphic), the Indians and Braves have slipped below 10% (6.7% and 7.4%, respectively, Angels sit at 15.4%).

Based on this information, as of July 10th, 2021, the Angels have improved enough that GM Perry Minasian is likely recommending to owner Arte Moreno that they commit resources to make a more aggressive move to continue competing, even though the team will probably only be in the discussion for a Wild Card spot. This could include obtaining a front-of-the-rotation starter (if they can find an appropriate one in the market), a new backup catcher who can, preferably, hit right-handed pitching well, and one, possibly two, relievers, one of which should be competent against left-handed hitters. It seems ill-advised and unlikely, based on our research, that the Angels will consider a large acquisition in right field, at least at this moment in time. Author’s Note: And, in fact, the Halos signed Adam Eaton, prior to publication, likely as a platoon partner in a corner outfield spot, because he has excelled against right-handed pitching over his career.

Again, the trade market may not support these needs and, certainly, there will be other teams the Angels have to compete with in the marketplace. In baseball, goals often go unrealized and many deals are never consummated. This will, however, in the author’s opinion, not deter the Angels from improving at this point, whether it is a blockbuster trade or one or more smaller transactions to help the Halos gain the extra inches they need to cross the playoff finish line. When you have a legitimate opportunity to get to the World Series, you should consider any reasonable moves to get there, particularly if it improves the team in the long-term as well.

Now to be clear, Perry Minasian will be monitoring the teams performance for the next couple of weeks and if things shift dramatically in the loss column and the trade market looks inviting, for the assets the Angels are potentially selling, they could go the full sell route and add additional pieces for 2022 and beyond, likely making the team even more competitive in near-future seasons. This is what we talked about early on in this series about the information that is available to the Halos versus the information available to us, as fans. Do not think, for even a second, that the Angels front office has not contacted every team in baseball to check on player availability and also interest in our obtainable assets. Information is power!

So whether it is promoting Matt Thaiss or Anthony Bemboom, behind the dish or acquiring Reese McGuire, trading for Max Scherzer, Luis Castillo, Shane Bieber, or even a guy like Jon Gray, sticking with the productive Taylor Ward, bringing up young Jo Adell, or picking up an established right fielder, or even snagging one or two affordable relievers like Chafin, Tepera, or Hudson, the Angels should have some trade space to upgrade the team. Also, with Mike Trout returning from the Injured List, this will only make the team leaps and bounds better and, if you tack on one or more trades, you can transform the Angels enough to make a real difference in 2021 and, possibly, beyond, if the new acquisitions have additional years of control. Trout returning, alone, could potentially bridge the current 4.5 game divide in the Wild Card race, not to mention a healthy Upton and Rendon returning near the end of July.

The Angels seem poised, whether it is now or later, to make some noise in the A.L. West and Perry Minasian and the Angels front office know this and will do their best, based on the information available, to make it happen sooner, rather than later, for a 2021 Angels team that, to date, deserves the opportunity to improve and punch their own ticket to the playoffs.

Author’s Speculative Opinion: The Angels will attempt to add a front-end starter with more than one season of control, but the trade market may not accommodate this need. It certainly is a missing piece of the puzzle that the Angels need to solve and one of our top outfield prospects will be the likely centerpiece of any deal for a controllable starter. If the Angels are targeting a pure rental, Moreno would probably kick in Luxury Tax money to pick up Scherzer and if the Halos want more years of control (more likely) someone like Luis Castillo or Shane Bieber may be possible. Additionally, the Halos will likely promote Matt Thaiss as the backup catcher to Stassi, he probably has enough chops to play a passable catcher and his bat can play at the Major League level, making him the cheapest “acquisition” at the Trade Deadline. The only roadblock will be if Thaiss cannot play at least marginal defense, thus necessitating a trade for a guy like Reese McGuire or another. Also, it would not be a surprise for the Angels to promote Adell at some point, but Taylor Ward’s bat has been solid and they have now taken a flyer on Eaton’s left-handed bat, so they could keep Jo down the rest of the season and start him in 2022 (Adell has 153 days of service time, not quite a full year, thus starting him in '22 would give the Angels a full six years of control). The Angels could also move Juan Lagares and promote Brandon Marsh to give him some Major League experience so that is a remote, but possible, transaction as a backup outfielder. Also, the Angels could move one or more of Bundy, Quintana, Heaney, and Cobb in order to promote one or more of Griffin Canning, Chris Rodriguez, Cooper Criswell, Jaime Barria, or top prospect Reid Detmers, for example. Finally, I could see Minasian picking up one or two of Richard Rodriguez, Andrew Chafin, Daniel Hudson, and/or Ryan Tepera in trade, probably out of the latter three or even promote internally, bringing Jose Quijada backup or perhaps one of Andrew Wantz, Hector Yan, Jake Reed, Boomer Biegalski, Jhonathan Diaz, and/or Jake Faria, to hold a more permanent spot the remainder of the season.

If you were the Angels GM, what would you do? Post your thoughts in the thread and continue the conversation about the Halos future!

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[ettin]

Clearly the Angels thought Marsh is ready (yay!) and with all of our outfield injuries, bringing him up as a potentially full-time replacement makes sense. Not only is he skilled, but he brings energy with him, the guy bounces off the walls, brimming with the "Let's Go!" type of hype that I think will fit in well with this team (and in the future).

[Chuck]

5 minutes ago, ettin said:

Clearly the Angels thought Marsh is ready (yay!) and with all of our outfield injuries, bringing him up as a potentially full-time replacement makes sense. Not only is he skilled, but he brings energy with him, the guy bounces off the walls, brimming with the "Let's Go!" type of hype that I think will fit in well with this team (and in the future).

I'm stoked!! 

[Angels 1961]

Will Angels consider moving Trout to LF? With his injury taking longer than expected will they be more cautious? Just saying for this season. No timetable has been set for his return. 

[ettin]

1 minute ago, Angels 1961 said:

Will Angels consider moving Trout to LF? With his injury taking longer than expected will they be more cautious? Just saying for this season. No timetable has been set for his return. 

I doubt it, personally, but I think there will come a point in about 2-4 years where Trout will move over to LF, potentially, because Adell, Marsh, and even Adams have good range out in center. This is nothing against Trout, he has good range too, but eventually I think Mike will move for the good of the overall team defense. Could be wrong, but Trout will start slowing down at some point and I think even he will acknowledge it and pull a Torii Hunter type move.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

Will Angels consider moving Trout to LF? With his injury taking longer than expected will they be more cautious? Just saying for this season. No timetable has been set for his return. 

Doubt it. Marsh probably moves to RF once Trout and Upton are healthy. Maybe after 2022 if Marsh takes off.

[Angels 1961]

34 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Doubt it. Marsh probably moves to RF once Trout and Upton are healthy. Maybe after 2022 if Marsh takes off.

I was just thinking for rest of this season, because of injury

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

I was just thinking for rest of this season, because of injury

No, Trout will go back to CF when he’s back. 

[ScottM]

Lindor went down with a grade 2 oblique... You could probably get a stupid package from the Mets for Iglesias. Or the A's...

[DMVol]

3 hours ago, ScottSted said:

Lindor went down with a grade 2 oblique... You could probably get a stupid package from the Mets for Iglesias. Or the A's...

Iglesias getting hot at the right time…..

[Vlad27Trout27]

Guys that I would keep and try to Re-Sign;

Cobb and Iglesias the Closer. 

unfortunately,these are also our biggest trade chips. 

I would trade Iglesias the ss, try to see if Heaney has value. 

[Lou]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

Iglesias getting hot at the right time…..

I was surprised to see he's batting .284

[Jason]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

Iglesias getting hot at the right time…..

 

38 minutes ago, Lou said:

I was surprised to see he's batting .284

He's been Ok with the bat (not awesome) but I don't trust his defense down the stretch when games matter the most. 

[stormngt]

2 hours ago, Vlad27Trout27 said:

Guys that I would keep and try to Re-Sign;

Cobb and Iglesias the Closer. 

unfortunately,these are also our biggest trade chips. 

I would trade Iglesias the ss, try to see if Heaney has value. 

Why can't you trade and try to re-sign in off season?

[Stradling]

7 hours ago, stormngt said:

Why can't you trade and try to re-sign in off season?

You can but history shows us that it doesn’t happen, not just the Angels but throughout all of baseball. We did this exercise a couple months back and we could only come up with two examples, Chapman and one other time it happened.  So of the thousands of trades that have happened only a few times has a team reacquired the player they traded away.  So while it can happen, it certainly seems like it “doesn’t” happen.  

[Stradling]

It’s almost like when a player loses are arbitration hearing he’s a virtual lock to leave for free agency.  Or at least that’s what has happened virtually every single time. 

[CanadianHalo]

14 hours ago, ScottSted said:

Lindor went down with a grade 2 oblique... You could probably get a stupid package from the Mets for Iglesias. Or the A's...

The Mets have Villar. He had a good month in June but now struggling at the plate in July. However, he’s a good enough band-aid while Lindor is out that the Mets won’t be paying a stupid price for another band-aid. 

Lindor has given them next to no offensive production this year anyways 

[Erstad Grit]

I would attempt to trade for Gallen and Scherzer (while giving him a 2/45 extension)

 

 

[Lou]

1 minute ago, Erstad Grit said:

I would attempt to trade for Gallen and Scherzer (while giving him a 2/45 extension)

No chance Scherzer accepts that offer. 

[totdprods]

36 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I would attempt to trade for Gallen and Scherzer (while giving him a 2/45 extension)

 

 

Verlander’s 2/$66m (? I think) is a likelier comp.

[stormngt]

4 hours ago, Stradling said:

You can but history shows us that it doesn’t happen, not just the Angels but throughout all of baseball. We did this exercise a couple months back and we could only come up with two examples, Chapman and one other time it happened.  So of the thousands of trades that have happened only a few times has a team reacquired the player they traded away.  So while it can happen, it certainly seems like it “doesn’t” happen.  

We have had this discussion before.   There is nothing that stops a person traded player of signing back with original team.  

Are you suggesting that the traded player would be so pissed that he wouldn't accept am offer from original team?  That is very unlikely scenario.  Hell. The traded player should be thanking his original team for trading them to a contending team

The reason it doesn't happen can be many.  However I can give you two reasons that is far more likely.

1.  The traded player had no intentions of extending his original team.  Therefore the player would be gone at the end of season anyway.

2. The trading team never intended on extending a competitive off for the player.  Thus the player would be gone by end of the season anyway 

They are free agents at end of the year.  Unless you think you can get an extension before the end of the season we should trade them and get something for them.

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, stormngt said:

We have had this discussion before.   There is nothing that stops a person traded player of signing back with original team.  

Are you suggesting that the traded player would be so pissed that he wouldn't accept am offer from original team?  That is very unlikely scenario.  Hell. The traded player should be thanking his original team for trading them to a contending team

The reason it doesn't happen can be many.  However I can give you two reasons that is far more likely.

1.  The traded player had no intentions of extending his original team.  Therefore the player would be gone at the end of season anyway.

2. The trading team never intended on extending a competitive off for the player.  Thus the player would be gone by end of the season anyway 

They are free agents at end of the year.  Unless you think you can get an extension before the end of the season we should trade them and get something for them.

If you want the answer I’d recommend you ask the thousands of players traded and the hundreds of GMs why it doesn’t happen.  

 

[Stradling]

Also I have no issues with trading potential free agents, I am just not going to assume you can trade them and simply resign them since that virtually never happens.  If we trade Iglesias and don’t resign him, but we sign another closer, what are the odds that closer will be a better closer than Iglesias.  Virtually no chance.  

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Lou said:

No chance Scherzer accepts that offer. 

I’m guessing 3 years/$90 million with a team option for $30 million ($10 million buy out)?

He’s still ace quality, albeit turning 37 soon.

Edited July 19, 2021 by Angel Oracle

[Angel Oracle]

46 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Also I have no issues with trading potential free agents, I am just not going to assume you can trade them and simply resign them since that virtually never happens.  If we trade Iglesias and don’t resign him, but we sign another closer, what are the odds that closer will be a better closer than Iglesias.  Virtually no chance.  

This is my worry with trading either Iglesias or Cobb.   They know what they have with them.

I’d rather deal the other pending FAs for whatever best offer.