Trade Candidates - and what they're worth

[Angelsjunky]

All of this is highly subjective, so feel free to tell me I'm an idoit. Very simply, a 50 FV prospect projects to be an average regular; everything above that is good or better (55 = good regular, 60 = all-star, etc), and everything below that is worse (45 = fringe regular/platoon, 40 = bench, etc).

LIKELY means I would be surprised if the player in question wasn't traded. MAYBE means there's at least a 50-50 chance. UNLIKELY means I would be surprised, but it could happen given the right set of circumstances.

The Players Most Likely to Be Traded (in rough order)...

Raisel Iglesias - LIKELY, as plenty of contending teams could use him for the stretch run. He's probably worth the most at the deadline and could earn the Angels either a good to very prospect (50-55 FV) or a couple solid ones (45 FV). In a best of all worlds scenario, the Angels get a 55 FV guy and a 45 FV guy, but we shouldn't bank on it.

Alex Cobb/Andrew Heaney - One of them is LIKELY, either one on their own or both is MAYBE. Kevin Goldstein at Fangraphs called Cobb the "most underrated" trade target; hopefully major league teams agree. Both could be useful for a contender needing a fourth solid starter, so have some value. I think either could get the Angels a prospect in the 50 FV range. Heaney is younger and a perennial tease for being a #2-3, rather than the #3-4 he usually is, so might get the Angels a slightly better return.

Mike Mayers/Steve Cishek/Tony Watson/Alex Claudio - LIKELY at least one gets traded, MAYBE for each. I think Cishek or Watson would be most likely, with their veteran cred. All of these guys would get no more than a decent Rondon (30-35 FV, maybe 40 FV if they're lucky).

Jose Iglesias - MAYBE. He could be a useful bench player/fill-in guy on a contender. Won't get them much in return, but maybe an intriguing low level prospect in the FV 40 range.

Phil Gosselin/Juan Lagares/Kurt Suzuki - MAYBE. Gosselin has played well and might catch someone's eye, to fill a similar role as Jose Iglesias as a bench guy. Similarly with Lagares for a contender wanting a defensive 4th outfielder. Suzuki is less likely, but maybe someone will see the name and think, "I know that guy, he can hit a bit." None will get more than Rondons in return.

Dylan Bundy/Jose Quintana - MAYBE one, UNLIKELY both. A team might take a flyer on one of these guys, and the Angels would probably take whatever they could get, at least for Quintana. I think both will remain on the team and fill out innings, and either could be re-signed for a very cheap contract as a back-up plan. I don't think either would get more than a 35-40 FV prospect in return, and the Angels might have to pay some of their contract.

Justin Upton - UNLIKELY. The scenario in which Upton is traded is this: he comes back and resumes where he left off, channeling his 2018 self. Not a star, but a good player who could plug a hole on a contender (gross). Someone wants him, but needs money in return and the Angels have to pay half or more of next year's $28M salary. I don't think they trade him if it is much more than half, though, unless they get a prospect in return. Someone would throw in a Rondon or two.

Dark Horse 1: Taylor Ward - MAYBE/UNLIKELY. A team wants to fill a hole and acquire a cheap, useful player. Ward fits the bill and is expendable with Thaiss in AAA. The Angels probably wouldn't trade him for less than a solid 45+ FV prospect, but someone might cough that up. As solid as Ward has been, he's expendable and has limited upside (fringe regular, solid bench player). Meaning, he's the type of player that 45 FV prospects are projected to become, so if the Angels can get a 45+ pitcher, it would make sense for them.

Dark Horse 2: Jaime Barria - MAYBE/UNLIKELY. He got an extra year of options this year, but will have to be on the major league roster next year (I believe), but there's probably no place in the rotation, so he'll end up being a swingman. But someone might see potential here and could offer a decent (45 FV) prospect. If the Angels can get a higher upside lottery ticket for Barria, I could see them trading him.

Everyone Else - UNLIKELY. The Angels are unlikely to be buyers, so won't trade any of their cost-controlled young players and prospects, unless they're fringy and packaged to sweeten a deal. 

[Taylor]

Great post. Thanks.

It seems like Raisel is the only player who could bring in a decent return.

[Angelsjunky]

8 minutes ago, Taylor said:

Great post. Thanks.

It seems like Raisel is the only player who could bring in a decent return.

Depends on what you mean by "decent." I think Cobb and Heaney could both bring in solid returns - 50 FV prospects, or a pair of 45 FV prospects. There are only about two dozen 60+ FV prospects in the minors at any one time, and I highly doubt any team would give one up for any of the Angels trade candidates, unless they did something like Raisel + Jackson.

Also, FV is inexact due to the volatility of prospects. Fangraphs considered CRod a 40+ FV prospect because of his injury history and Longerhagen's view that he would be a reliever. Meaning, a player could be 40+ FV but have all-star upside (55-60 FV), but have question marks keeping him from a higher grade (and of course I think Fangraphs woefully underrates CRod, who deserves a 50 FV grade, imo). So there are a lot of interesting prospects around 40-45 FV...most are low-ceiling/high-floor types, but some the opposite.

And of course I could be wrong and over/under-estimating all of them.

Edited June 28, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

I added Bundy/Quintana - forgot about them.

[TheLordofOuts]

Man, I would probably be happy with a 2 Double-Double In-N-Out combos with a strawberry shake in return for Bundy. 

[jsnpritchett]

8 minutes ago, TheLordofOuts said:

Man, I would probably be happy with a 2 Double-Double In-N-Out combos with a strawberry shake in return for Bundy. 

I think that may have been what came streaming out of his mouth a few minutes ago.

[Taylor]

18 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

I think that may have been what came streaming out of his mouth a few minutes ago.

Since they're 1,800 miles from the nearest INO, it would explain why he got sick.

[totdprods]

Heaney continues to be underrated by this board.

Since that disastrous first start against the White Sox, he has a 3.97 ERA and 81 K in 65.2 IP, good for a K9 just over 11. Add in that he’s a lefty and just about any playoff-bound rotation would *love* to add him as their 3rd or 4th guy. 

The Stroman for Kay and Woods-Richardson deal is probably a best-case scenario comp, but it shows what Heaney could bring back - two strong pitching prospects - especially if he has a strong July. Pretty like the Halos could tack on a reliever in any deal involving Heaney or Cobb to help sweeten the return too…Cishek, Watson, Mayers, even Claudio have their cons, but put them as one of the final pieces in a deep contending pen and they’re certainly valuable. 

I hope they flip Heaney and a RP in one deal, Cobb in another, Iglesias in another, and maybe we get lucky and move another RP or two in smaller, lesser deals. That should net at least 3 guys who slot into maybe the 7-15 range on our prospect list, and maybe another 1-2 who fall into the lower 20 range. 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

I added Bundy/Quintana - forgot about them.

Quintana’s strikeout stuff has been so strong this year that I could see him working well out of the pen and being a savvy pickup by a team who sees something.

Bundy at this point? Real hard imagining him turning around enough to have any value. Might be better off eating innings here for the rest of the year, trying to figure out what disappeared from last year, and maybe if he shows some signs we get him on a cheap rebound deal as a #5 next year. 

[Angelsjunky]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Quintana’s strikeout stuff has been so strong this year that I could see him working well out of the pen and being a savvy pickup by a team who sees something.

Bundy at this point? Real hard imagining him turning around enough to have any value. Might be better off eating innings here for the rest of the year, trying to figure out what disappeared from last year, and maybe if he shows some signs we get him on a cheap rebound deal as a #5 next year. 

Yes, agreed - my thoughts exactly on both.

[totdprods]

Honestly I could see the Astros being all over Heaney and a RP too. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

Were gonna trade someone like lagares, and get back someone like lagares.

[mmc]

We can sign guys like Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, and Cole Hamels to fill out depth if we trade people.  Though, I’m sure their preference is to sign with a contender 

[zenmaster]

Bundy is lucky he isn't released. No one would take him for anything of any value. 

[Taylor]

12 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Were gonna trade someone like lagares, and get back someone like lagares.

How many rondons is the equivalent of one legare?

[angelsnationtalk]

16 minutes ago, mmc said:

We can sign guys like Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, and Cole Hamels to fill out depth if we trade people.  Though, I’m sure their preference is to sign with a contender 

Their preference is to be paid

[angelsnationtalk]

My main concern is the Angels getting a little hot towards the deadline and the FO falling somewhere in between selling/buying. They won't buy by trading someone like Adell/Marsh, but they also won't sell by trading someone like Iglesias (R or J), Heaney or Cobb.

I can't imagine the FO being sellers while Trout is in his prime no matter how shitty they could get. 

One thing for sure is it'd be nice to see them become sellers and get this team reset a bit. Upton is a pipe dream, but DFA'ing Pujols was also a pipe dream......

I really hope Sandoval and Suarez aren't a fluke. 2022 could become a much different team if these guys really are here to stay.

[Stradling]

With the emergence of both Sandoval and Suarez would you consider adding Canning in a package with possibly Adell for a guy like Marquez?  I know trading a pitcher with control seems like a bad idea, but at some point we will have too many back end guys and not enough front end guys.  So it would look like this next year.

Ohtani

Marquez

Sandoval

Suarez

Barria

Detmers

CRod.

We still need more depth, but that is a pretty good start.  If not we are looking at:

Ohtani

Free Agent Signing

Sandoval

Suarez

Canning

Detmers

CRod

Barria

 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

With the emergence of both Sandoval and Suarez would you consider adding Canning in a package with possibly Adell for a guy like Marquez?

I’ve suggested this many times and its never been received well, but think it’s one of the most plausible ways to address adding an impact, controllable SP. I just think Canning’s elbow/arm is a time-bomb and Adell’s development will take a little longer than we’ll hope. 

That’s not to say I’m in the camp that means we totally trade them, but an Adell+Canning package would go a long way to landing a really good SP target. Just not sure exactly who that could be…

[Chuck]

1 hour ago, mmc said:

We can sign guys like Anibal Sanchez, Rick Porcello, and Cole Hamels to fill out depth if we trade people.  Though, I’m sure their preference is to sign with a contender 

We wouldn't need to really. 

Replace Bundy with Suarez. 

Replace Heaney with Barria

Replace Cobb with Detmers, C-Rod, Wantz or Naughton

Rotation: Ohtani, Suarez, Sandoval, Canning, Barria, Detmers/C-Rod (or Wantz/Naughton)

[AngelsLakersFan]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

With the emergence of both Sandoval and Suarez would you consider adding Canning in a package with possibly Adell for a guy like Marquez?  I know trading a pitcher with control seems like a bad idea, but at some point we will have too many back end guys and not enough front end guys.  So it would look like this next year.

Ohtani

Marquez

Sandoval

Suarez

Barria

Detmers

CRod.

We still need more depth, but that is a pretty good start.  If not we are looking at:

Ohtani

Free Agent Signing

Sandoval

Suarez

Canning

Detmers

CRod

Barria

 

I'm not really high on Canning and Adell so I am totally fine with packaging them for someone we could really use. 

[Angelsjunky]

11 minutes ago, Stradling said:

With the emergence of both Sandoval and Suarez would you consider adding Canning in a package with possibly Adell for a guy like Marquez?  I know trading a pitcher with control seems like a bad idea, but at some point we will have too many back end guys and not enough front end guys.  

 

 

6 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I’ve suggested this many times and its never been received well, but think it’s one of the most plausible ways to address adding an impact, controllable SP. I just think Canning’s elbow/arm is a time-bomb and Adell’s development will take a little longer than we’ll hope. 

That’s not to say I’m in the camp that means we totally trade them, but an Adell+Canning package would go a long way to landing a really good SP target. Just not sure exactly who that could be…

I like it...kind of. I'm not in love with Marquez's declining control (BB/9 last three years: 1.81, 2.76, 3.99), but he's young and signed through 2024 for a great rate. But his velo is a bit down this year, and his last start was his lowest of the year...something might be up with him. So I'm hesitant.

Maybe the Angels can bait-and-switch and do Adell-Barria. I mean, if I were the Rockies I'd jump on Adell. If he fulfills his potential he could hit 50 HR in Coors. 

[Angels 1961]

15 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

We wouldn't need to really. 

Replace Bundy with Suarez. 

Replace Heaney with Barria

Replace Cobb with Detmers, C-Rod, Wantz or Naughton

Rotation: Ohtani, Suarez, Sandoval, Canning, Barria, Detmers/C-Rod (or Wantz/Naughton)

Fill bullpen with Petricka and Danish

[totdprods]

18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

I like it...kind of. I'm not in love with Marquez's declining control (BB/9 last three years: 1.81, 2.76, 3.99), but he's young and signed through 2024 for a great rate. But his velo is a bit down this year, and his last start was his lowest of the year...something might be up with him. So I'm hesitant.

Maybe the Angels can bait-and-switch and do Adell-Barria. I mean, if I were the Rockies I'd jump on Adell. If he fulfills his potential he could hit 50 HR in Coors. 

Maybe Berrios? Castillo? Alcantara? One of the freaks in Milwaukee? Other options outside of Marquez too, obviously some maybe needing more pieces involved. Not hard adding a top SS prospect to a deal for talent like that given how many we have.

It’s a shame someone like Flaherty, Bieber, or Giolito aren’t close to being available. Angels could make a good run at them being local guys.

[mmc]

28 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

We wouldn't need to really. 

Replace Bundy with Suarez. 

Replace Heaney with Barria

Replace Cobb with Detmers, C-Rod, Wantz or Naughton

Rotation: Ohtani, Suarez, Sandoval, Canning, Barria, Detmers/C-Rod (or Wantz/Naughton)

Who do we start if any of those guys get hurt though?